BB: E8: Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

Ithaca did win the head to head match up with Cortland.  But, that aside, I am just going by the rankings that has Cortland ahead of Ithaca despite Ithaca's head to head win, better in region record...etc.  both teams are solid.  The NCAA certainly does favor teams, coaches sit on the regional selection committees, etc.. I am not saying that is the case here and realistically, it does not matter who the one or two seed is.  I do think that whomever comes out of NY this year has a shot.  I would like to see Fisher sneak in with D'Amato and Rynerson..they could be a tough out.  I do worry about Ithaca's front heavy pitching, especially when the games go nine innings which, unfortunately for them, does not happen in the Empire 8.  That league needs to play more nines to help prepare teams for the regionals.

Cortland and Ithaca play again. Barring any collapse by either team, the winner of that game is probably the top seed.

The nine inning thing doesn't worry me. That's what OOC games are good for. Lemmo averages 8 IP per start (he threw 10 once), and Prendergast has thrown 9 inning several times. If the schedule doesn't have any more rainouts, the Bombers will have played scheduled nine inning games 24 times, and two other conference games that went to at least nine. If 26 nine-inning games don't get you prepared, you've got other issues.

Look, I don't know if the Bombers will make it out of the regionals. But if they don't, I don't think it will be because their pitchers ran out of gas in the 8th inning, or the other team's beating them 8-1 in the 4th game because they're tossing someone on short rest or a not-great pitcher up against a really good one.

[nybaseballfan23]

Based on the strength of schedule/region winning percentages as per d3baseball.com, I would wager the initial regional rankings are going to look something like this:

1.  Ithaca (17-2, .895 in-region, .5937 OWP)
2.  Cortland (23-4, .852 in-region, .5712 OWP)
3.  Union (17-4, .810 in-region, .5403 OWP)
4.  RPI (20-7, .741 in-region, .5391 OWP)
5.  St. John Fisher (15-9, .625 in-region, .6098 OWP)
6.  Farmingdale (20-5, .800 in-region, .4584 OWP)

After those you have a handful of teams over .500 with solid OWPs, most notably New Paltz (14-11, .5486 OWP) but this group should make up the rankings.  Old Westbury and Staten Island have solid to very good in-region marks but OWP (308th and 341st nationally) takes them out of the discussion.  You could also include Farmingdale in that group as their OWP is weak, hence Fisher taking the 5 spot over them, but seems like the committee always gets the Skyline leader in the rankings.  Fisher could conceivably take the 4 spot over RPI as well based strictly on the numbers and wind up being the top NY team put up for a Pool C, with Ithaca taking the Pool B.

So as to the E8 getting two in, if Fisher picks up some more wins and wins the ECAC (heard they're bringing it back this year?) they'd be a strong candidate, as their OWP is currently 10th in the nation and tops among eligible teams (Utica is #1, probably because they can't schedule themselves )...

[airball55]

Good stuff.  Fisher may be getting hosed a bit by the Utica debacle.  They only played them twice and Utica wanted to reschedule over a discipline issue, so now, it appears those will be forfeits.  Would those count as wins??  I wonder if this would have happened in hoops or football season (wink, insert laugh).  Anyway, those two probable wins would help their chances.  I still think that at some point a bullpen will come into play and this is where Cortland usually separates themselves from others.  Ithaca is very front end dominated, the starters can't have a bad day in the regionals.  The good ole ECAC huh... that may help someone, but, a lot of programs won't let their teams participate in it anymore. 

[Bombers798891]

Cortland has a much deeper staff, which means the Bombers will need to go 4-0 to win it. But their big 3 of Lemmo, Prendergast, and Wagner are good enough to get it done. Andrew Sanders could be an interesting 4th option. He beat Cortland earlier this season, and threw seven shutout innings in his last start. He also threw 6.2 innings against Rochester in relief of Adams. I think he's got to have the edge of Adams right now

As far as Fisher...yeah maybe they're getting hurt a bit by the Utica thing. But if there are no other rainouts, they'll play 39 games. Still plenty of chances to prove themselves. Those two losses to Stevens have to sting a bit.

[airball55]

It appears that fisher will get credit for two forfeit victories...and with the ECAC and remaining games they could get hot and get near thirty wins.  Top 10 strength of schedule doesn't hurt either.  I don't see the Liberty League getting an at large, Union or RPI looks like the rep. out of the LL.  This region is better than usual though and let's hope that the NCAA selection folks recognize the strength of NY this season!!

[John McGraw]

It appears that fisher will get credit for two forfeit victories...and with the ECAC and remaining games they could get hot and get near thirty wins.  Top 10 strength of schedule doesn't hurt either.  I don't see the Liberty League getting an at large, Union or RPI looks like the rep. out of the LL.  This region is better than usual though and let's hope that the NCAA selection folks recognize the strength of NY this season!!

From the way the Utica team suspension/hazing story was written in the local paper, the Fisher-Utica games will go as forfeits in favor of Fisher.

[airball55]

They originally tried to just move them!!  Quite the punishment, tell a team they can't show up to play because they screwed up, but, we don't want to lose so just move them!  Utica college has always been a bit of a disappointment to me.  There is good high school ball in that area but the school just never seems to care much about baseball and has been perennial bottom feeders.  With Mohawk Valley next door, ample summer organizations one would think that Utica would get better by default but it just hasn't happened.

[Bombers798891]

Cortland at Ithaca today. Winner is the likely #1 seed.

Bombers have two options for starters today. Pat Lemmo (7-0, 1.62) or Andrew Sanders (2-2, 2.84) Lemmo's the staff ace, but I'd kind of like to see Sanders go. If Ithaca's going to win the regionals, they have to get a 4th starter set. Jasper Adams continues to allow a ton of hits (59 in 39.2 innings) and if Sanders can put together a quality outing against a team against Cortland for a second time, I've got to think they'd like him against a weaker team in the regionals.

Of course, it's Ithaca, so it's probably going to rain today, which I guess benefits the Bombers, since they're #1 in the region right now.

[John McGraw]

Cortland at Ithaca today. Winner is the likely #1 seed.

Bombers have two options for starters today. Pat Lemmo (7-0, 1.62) or Andrew Sanders (2-2, 2.84) Lemmo's the staff ace, but I'd kind of like to see Sanders go. If Ithaca's going to win the regionals, they have to get a 4th starter set. Jasper Adams continues to allow a ton of hits (59 in 39.2 innings) and if Sanders can put together a quality outing against a team against Cortland for a second time, I've got to think they'd like him against a weaker team in the regionals.

Of course, it's Ithaca, so it's probably going to rain today, which I guess benefits the Bombers, since they're #1 in the region right now.

Rain in the forecast the next two days. Usually how things go - Ithaca/Cortland play their first or second game and the other has some sort of weather ailment.

[nybaseballfan23]

Figures rain comes into play, actually been a decent spring for the 2nd straight year for a change...chalk it up to global warming I guess.  Hope they get it in, be a nice preview for the NCAA's and could settle the top seed esp. if Ithaca wins, I'd think the committee would just go by the numbers if they split the season series.

The NCAA rule for "forfeits" are if a game is called off/cancelled before it has started, it counts as a no-contest.  However, as Mr. McGraw astutely pointed out Fisher appears to be getting credit for the two wins, which I think is the right thing to do.  It's one thing to cancel non-league games as punishment, but doing so to conference games hurts the opponent and the league overall, and with no AQ each game carries a lot more weight than in most other leagues.  Fisher looks to be NY's best shot at a Pool C, hope they keep on keeping on.

Utica has been a disappointment over the years, this year even more so as they appeared to improve a little (relatively) last season and then had the airport incident, although they appeared to compete well (again, relatively) at Stevens over the weekend.  Just not a lot of emphasis or support from the administration I would wager, maybe this new AD will change that.

It also appears Hoboken's own Cake Boss might have some competition in town with all of the cupcakes and cream puffs Stevens had on their schedule this year...looks like the won the CUNY title 

[Bombers798891]

So Fisher gets credit for the wins. How much will two wins over a 4-22 Utica really help them? It bumps up the winning percentage I guess, but honestly, would beating Utica twice really change any impressions about them? Fisher's the same team they were before those two games were counted.

As for Utica's not being good, I've always ascribed it to Utica—the town—being a horrible, horrible place to spend four years. Seriously, I don't like spending 45 minutes in that town, let alone four of the prime years of my life. I'd rather hang out in Cortland than "The City that God Forgot."

[Bombers798891]

Bombers take a 3-0 lead on Cortland in the first. Lemmo has induced two double-play groundballs in two innings. Bombers open with 1st and 3rd, no one out in the second, and Cortland has to go to the bullpen. Three more runs score, and it's 6-0 Ithaca after two.

Ithaca faced John Molloy, who actually had the worst ERA (4.15) of any starter on the Cortland roster. So maybe there's not a lot to read into a game like this, and of course it's far from over. But the Bombers have to like the start. A win would seem to lock up the top seed in the region, barring too many fluky losses.

Interesting that the Red Dragons started Nemeti and Molloy (combined 28 IP on the season) against the Bombers. Are they intentionally hiding their hand, allowing their depth and talent to provide them with the luxury of not starting their best pitchers so Ithaca doesn't get a feel for them until the regionals? Cortland's got to feel confident they can win the regionals regardless of seeding, so maybe they're thinking bigger picture?

On the flip side, of course, you've got to think the Bombers (if they win this game) would be feeling supremely confident as well, regardless of their regionals struggle. After all, Cortland's still throwing out their best hitters. Also, after a 9-run game in their first meeting and six early runs here, I think Ithaca's guys would feel good about their ability to hit the Cortland depth guys, and that's where the Red Dragons would seem to have the advantage over Ithaca

[Bombers798891]

Wow.

Even considering that the Bombers were throwing Pat Lemmo, the staff ace, against Molloy, not one of Cortland's best pitchers, I'd have to think the Red Dragons wanted to do better that a 14-2 whipping.

The big question is: What do we know about these teams now that we didn't before the game?

Cortland didn't throw any/many of their top pitchers, so it's tough to be terribly excited about the 14 runs in a big picture sense. It was great to see Lemmo pitch so well against Cortland. Yes, he's been dominant this year, but to do that kind of work against a great lineup is huge. Ithaca's path to the NCAA's is going to go through Cortland, so it's great to see another win

[airball55]

This is standard practice for teams that have conferences that carry the AQ to hold their pitchers for conference games.  Ithaca over the years has had the benefit of picking where to throw some guys simply because they didn't play in a league and to get the at large pool b, they had to win those midweek games.  For Cortland, the conference is much more important so it's not uncommon to hold guys back.  I wouldn't read to much into this though.  However, with the loss, Cortland just jumped to number 1 in the country!! Just kiddin...

[sjfcards]

I have not been able to post much this year due to work, etc, so I am doing some catch up on this baseball season more than anything. IC looks like the real deal. What are their chances to be the one seed?

Does Fisher have a shot to get in? I see they are included in the regional rankings, but their record is not overly impressive. I did see something about a tough schedule but I really don't know how it works with baseball.

Can anyone help me out?