BB: Central Region Rankings

[BearBaseball]

I don't think its a big part of the argument at all. It just lowers both Buena Vista and NPU's win%.

I don't believe the tournaments are comparable, but if you want to know how we did, back in March, we lost in the championship (whoever won was going to be in first) on a walk-off homerun in a game where we had a 7-run lead in.  We only lost to regionally ranked teams. Definitely not as impressive as BV and NPU finishing 4th, in May, with an automatic bid at stake, but we did the best we could. 

[mr_b]

I don't think its a big part of the argument at all. It just lowers both Buena Vista and NPU's win%.

I don't believe the tournaments are comparable, but if you want to know how we did, back in March, we lost in the championship (whoever won was going to be in first) on a walk-off homerun in a game where we had a 7-run lead in.  We only lost to regionally ranked teams. Definitely not as impressive as BV and NPU finishing 4th, in May, with an automatic bid at stake, but we did the best we could. 

Just wondering: what is the reason for having a conference tournament so early in the season?  I know the conference is spread out geographically, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to have a "tournament" so soon when the players are just getting their bearings. 

[Ralph Turner]

I don't think its a big part of the argument at all. It just lowers both Buena Vista and NPU's win%.

I don't believe the tournaments are comparable, but if you want to know how we did, back in March, we lost in the championship (whoever won was going to be in first) on a walk-off homerun in a game where we had a 7-run lead in.  We only lost to regionally ranked teams. Definitely not as impressive as BV and NPU finishing 4th, in May, with an automatic bid at stake, but we did the best we could. 

Just wondering: what is the reason for having a conference tournament so early in the season?  I know the conference is spread out geographically, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to have a "tournament" so soon when the players are just getting their bearings. 

The UAA has a different set of challenges.

1)  Only 5 teams compete in the tourney. UChicago is an independent.  CMU and NYU don't field teams, and Rochester competes for the AQ in the Liberty League

2) Having only 5 teams, they don't have an AQ.

3) The geographical hassles for northern schools would make the scheduling the rain-outs and early season inclement weather a nightmare.

[mr_b]

The UAA has a different set of challenges.

1)  Only 5 teams compete in the tourney. UChicago is an independent.  CMU and NYU don't field teams, and Rochester competes for the AQ in the Liberty League

2) Having only 5 teams, they don't have an AQ.

3) The geographical hassles for northern schools would make the scheduling the rain-outs and early season inclement weather a nightmare.

I figured it would be something along those lines.  But with only five teams, it's hard to conceive it as a "tournament."  Too bad the teams don't join some larger conferences so they can battle for an AQ.

[augie_superfan]

At the time of the rankings, these were the numbers:
Team               Win%   SOS   Regionally Ranked
Augustana       .636     .516       3-4
Chicago           .636     .530       4-1
WashU            .651     .528        5-8
North Central   .625     .522       3-7


To say North Central and Augustana are "in the same boat as" WashU and Chicago is not supported by anything. Not only do they have better winning percentages but the SOS aren't even close. If the difference between .516 and .530 is as big as the D3baseball.com numbers make them appear, Augustana would have to jump about 60 teams nationally to get to .530. How can that be close? Especially with Buena Vista and North Park falling early in their conference tournaments, they will all be very close to getting playoff bids. If they wanted to put Chicago and their 14 wins ahead of us, I would understand. They beat us pretty bad on one day. But, as of last week, NCC and Augustana didn't deserve to be in the conversation.

You forgot to quote me as saying "roughly in the same boat" 

Regardless, without going into a detailed calculation of the difference between a 0.516 and a 0.530 its hard to say if that is truly a significant difference.  I'm assuming that the distribution of SOS numbers is somewhat bunched around the mean.  Having 60 teams to jump seems like a large number but not so much if only a few games here or there would've changed the numbers.  If poor Millikin could've scratched out a few more wins, maybe we wouldn't even be having this conversation. 

Better yet, maybe all 4 of those teams should've just won more games.  Any way your slice it, those 4 teams didn't win enough games to merit being ranked and someone had to get that last spot but I do find it hard to believe that you don't think Augie and NCC should've at least been in the conversation.  I mean, if you look at Wash U vs. Chicago, well Wash U shouldn't even be in that conversation.  What's better than 3 head-to head matchups to tell us who is better?

Ironically, having Augie ranked instead of Chicago actually makes Wash U's numbers look better as you'd be 5-11 vs. regionally ranked if Chicago had been the number 6 team in the rankings. 

[BigPoppa]

I don't believe the tournaments are comparable  

Is that because WashU went 3-3 in the UAA "tourney?" I am guessing you'd have a different argument if WashU had finished first.

[BigPoppa]

Looking at what is coming back for each team and using a "complex" formula of 3, 2, 1 for all-regional teams for hitters and 4, 3, 2 for pitching (it is a little more important than hitting) here is what I have arrived at for an early look at the 2012 Central Region: (Note- so much can happen between now and February so this is just something to tide us over until then... it has been one day since the season ended and I am already lost).
1 IWU (9)
2/3 WashU/Coe(7)
4/5/6/7 Grinnell/Luther/Beloit/Wheaton (5)
8/9/10 North Park/UofChicago/Loras
11/12/13/14 Carthage/Webster/Buena Vista/Elmhurst
15 Monmouth

RETURNERS: (All-region team)

C:
Mike Nodzenski- Grinnell (1st)
AJ Nathan- IWU (3rd)
Stephen Williams- Chicago (3rd)

1B:
Kevin Callahan- IWU (1st)
Ross Donnan- Monmouth (3rd)

2B:
Chris Reynolds- Luther (1st)
Jonathon Erickson- IWU (3rd)

3B:
Jordan Jaenicke- Beloit (3rd)

SS:
Michael Goldfien- Grinnell (2nd)

OF:
Brandon Rogalski- WashU (1st) Regional Player of the Year
Nick Stein- Coe (1st)
Dave Wollak- Elmhurst (2nd)
Justin Zeller- Wheaton (2nd)
Jack Cinoman- Chicago (3rd)

UTL:
Trey Martin- Wheaton (1st)
Kyle Billig- WashU (2nd)

DH:
Bobby Czarnowski- IWU (3rd)

P:
Wade Morris- Coe (1st)
Alex Norman- Beloit (1st)
Kendall Paluch- Loras (2nd)
Nick Mehn- IWU (2nd)
Steve Kuligowski- North Park (2nd)
Stephan Bonser- WashU (3rd)
David Mueller- Webster (3rd)
James Stone- Buena Vista (3rd)
Augie Lindmark- Luther (3rd)
Danny Dahm- Carthage (3rd)

[BigPoppa]

Here is my first look at the Central Region after all the teams have now hit the field:

1. North Park 11-3: I have been high on the them all year and other than a stumble against Wisconsin Lutheran this weekend, they have been as good as advertised. CCIW

2. WashU 17-6: Another team I really like and they have not really disappointed me much so far. I think they will be a team that is one of two or three left playing on the final day of the Central regional. UAA

3. Illinois Wesleyan 8-4: Just split a four game set with Concordia (IL) who I really like this season. IWU is my hated rival, but looking with my eyes and not my heart allows me to see that they are a contender. CCIW

4. Augustana 11-2: Not really tested with a tough schedule yet, but they are winning games regardless. CCIW

5. Spalding 13-3: A relative newcomer in the region, they should prove a formidable challenge to Webster's SLIAC reign. SLIAC

6. Central 12-3: They really have yet to play anyone that I'd consider for a signature win to this point, yet they keep on winning. IIAC

7. St. Norbert 6-3: Average SoS to this point, but upcoming games with Stevens Point and WashU will let us know if they are the real deal or not. MWC

8. North Central 9-4: Playing some solid programs on the road in the South where they are 20-25 games deep into their seasons. CCIW

9. Elmhurst 8-3: No idea of what to think here... they have not faced top-notch squads yet, but they look to be keeping pponents from scoring runs in bunches. CCIW

10. Dubuque 14-4: Did I really just write this?? I keep waiting for them to falter, but a three game sweep of Coe has them atop the IIAC right now. IIAC EDIT: Sorry... Too many numbers in my head this morning. Still, I think they are in this discussion right now.


*Notables that are missing:

Carthage 5-5... their collapse last week was shocking to many. A week back in the midwest might be just the thing to get them refocused. A big three game series with NOrth Central this weekend.

Webster 10-8... they will pile up wins in the SLIAC again , but they look be be struggling with quality opponents at this point.


MISC: Another team I like a bit is Chicago (8-4). Their losses are all to solid programs, twice to St. Thomas, once to Whitewater and once to Bowdoin. They also took a win from Whitewater and swept St. Olaf. They have also quetly put together a nice schedule including WashU, Carthage, Concordia (IL), Aurora, and North Park. If the Maroons can produce a respectable record, they are a team that the committee will need to take a serious look at during the selection process.

[TheSportsFan]

Nicley done BigPoppa.

One clarification, Dubuque actually lost the series 2-1 to Coe, putting them at 12-6.  Dubuque was outscored 12-0 on doubleheader saturday.

[BigPoppa]

Nicley done BigPoppa.

One clarification, Dubuque actually lost the series 2-1 to Coe, putting them at 12-6.  Dubuque was outscored 12-0 on doubleheader saturday.

Thanks... a long morning of number crunching:)

[D3Vike11]

Here is my first look at the Central Region after all the teams have now hit the field:

1. North Park 11-3: I have been high on the them all year and other than a stumble against Wisconsin Lutheran this weekend, they have been as good as advertised. CCIW

2. WashU 17-6: Another team I really like and they have not really disappointed me much so far. I think they will be a team that is one of two or three left playing on the final day of the Central regional. UAA

3. Illinois Wesleyan 8-4: Just split a four game set with Concordia (IL) who I really like this season. IWU is my hated rival, but looking with my eyes and not my heart allows me to see that they are a contender. CCIW

4. Augustana 11-2: Not really tested with a tough schedule yet, but they are winning games regardless. CCIW

5. Spalding 13-3: A relative newcomer in the region, they should prove a formidable challenge to Webster's SLIAC reign. SLIAC

6. Central 12-3: They really have yet to play anyone that I'd consider for a signature win to this point, yet they keep on winning. IIAC

7. St. Norbert 6-3: Average SoS to this point, but upcoming games with Stevens Point and WashU will let us know if they are the real deal or not. MWC

8. North Central 9-4: Playing some solid programs on the road in the South where they are 20-25 games deep into their seasons. CCIW

9. Elmhurst 8-3: No idea of what to think here... they have not faced top-notch squads yet, but they look to be keeping pponents from scoring runs in bunches. CCIW

10. Dubuque 14-4: Did I really just write this?? I keep waiting for them to falter, but a three game sweep of Coe has them atop the IIAC right now. IIAC EDIT: Sorry... Too many numbers in my head this morning. Still, I think they are in this discussion right now.


*Notables that are missing:

Carthage 5-5... their collapse last week was shocking to many. A week back in the midwest might be just the thing to get them refocused. A big three game series with NOrth Central this weekend.

Webster 10-8... they will pile up wins in the SLIAC again , but they look be be struggling with quality opponents at this point.


MISC: Another team I like a bit is Chicago (8-4). Their losses are all to solid programs, twice to St. Thomas, once to Whitewater and once to Bowdoin. They also took a win from Whitewater and swept St. Olaf. They have also quetly put together a nice schedule including WashU, Carthage, Concordia (IL), Aurora, and North Park. If the Maroons can produce a respectable record, they are a team that the committee will need to take a serious look at during the selection process.

North Park is sitting at 13-3 after this weekend's games. I would still rank Carthage somewhere between St. Norbert and Elmhurst despite the 5-5 record, they will find a way to make it click. Other than that, I like the analysis. I agree that University of Chicago could surprise some teams, too.

[D3Vike11]

D3Vike11's Central Region Rankings as of April 1st:

1.) North Park (17-3)   CCIW
The Vikings have established themselves as the top team in the region. They continue to win with strong pitching, sporting a team ERA of 2.72 and holding opposing hitters to a .240 BA. Offensively they are led by Division 1 transfer Tony Sanchez, who is my early favorite for Player of the Year in the Central.

2.) Washington U (20-6)   UAA
The Bears continue to win, beating teams they should be beating. Not as strong on the mound as some of the other teams in the Central, but they get on base and score runs. My only concern is their .940 defense.

3.) Illinois Wesleyan (12-5)   CCIW
Wesleyan pitchers got knocked around by Wheaton over the weekend, Sweeney taking the brunt of it with 9 earned runs in less than 2 innings. They continue to hit and play excellent defense, and their pitching should get back on track against Millikin.

4.) Central (15-4)   IIAC
The Dutch sit atop the IIAC despite taking a bad loss to Loras. With one of the best pitching staffs in the Central region, I see Central taking the conference title away from Coe. Starting Pitcher Joel Pulliam is IIAC's Player of the Year so far.

5.) Spalding (15-4-1)   SLIAC
Spalding continues to show that they are a force to be reckoned with in the Central. They play in a weak conference, so they should continue to rack up wins.

[BigPoppa]

The SLIAC's relatively weak conference kills their member's SoS numbers so I still think the SLIAC will only be a one-bid conference. It will all come down to who wins the tourney. SoS hurts the conference when forced to go head to head at the Pool C table.

[D3Vike11]

The SLIAC's relatively weak conference kills their member's SoS numbers so I still think the SLIAC will only be a one-bid conference. It will all come down to who wins the tourney. SoS hurts the conference when forced to go head to head at the Pool C table.

Agreed. Although it's still early, I think Spalding will take down Webster's reign as SLIAC Champ.

[BigPoppa]

A lot of posters laughed two years ago when I said that Spalding would challenge Webster's run... The same people laughed when I stated in January that North Park and WashU would be VERY good this year. Who's laughing now!?