BB: Central Region Rankings

[OshDude]

For the sake of posterity and argument, here's mine as of today. I plan on crunching numbers this weekend, so this will probably change as a result of the weekend's games, which will be included in the first rankings.
1. Carthage
2. Illinois Wesleyan
3. Augustana
4. Webster
5. Beloit
6. Buena Vista 

[BigPoppa]

BigPoppa's Top 25: April 20th

01 Pomona-Pitzer... all they do is win
02 Millsaps... quickly becoming one of the nation's elite
03 Southern Maine... 8-0 this week. WOW!
04 St. Scholastica... might be the biggest sleeper in the nation, even at 24-2
05 Salisbury... 33-5 means they get it done day after day
06 Texas-Tyler... can they survive the ASC post-season or will they stumble again?
07 Trinity (Conn.)... poised to make another run?
08 Heidelberg... great team that is overlooked in its region
09 Kean... settling in after a tough west coast trip early in the year.
10 Eastern Connecticut... playing like the team everyone thought they were.
11 Wheaton (Mass.)... a tough week for them, but still good enough to hang around the top 10
12 Carthage... CCIW#1A...should have the CCIW #1 seed locked up this week.
13 George Fox... somehow, GF will not win it's own conference and will be a bubble team when the bids come out.
14 Ithaca... Bombers are back on track and pounding teams.
15 Wooster... playing well agains after a mis-step last week.
16 St. Thomas... MIAC #1 team
17 Cal Lutheran... Really needs Texas-Tyler to win the Pool A in the ASC... bubble team for Pool C
18 Shenandoah... not really sure about this team yet, but 31 wins speaks for itself.
19 Illinois Wesleyan... CCIW #1B... great team that is just hitting its stride
20 Keystone... Will be the next 30 win team
21 Curry... 7-1 last week! Impressive to say the least... deep staff to do that.
22 Pacific Lutheran... Controls the NWC
23 Mount St. Mary...19-4 right now... make or break week for them
24 Buena Vista... 23-6...showing cracks in their armor.
25 UW-Whitewater...18-9, but still winning games in the tough WIAC.

Dropped out:
UW-Oshkosh (no idea what to think of this team... most up and down team I have ever seen),
St. Olaf (Can they grab a second MIAC bid... I am not sure yet)
Marietta (Do you want to be a big dog or not?)
Thomas More ( It was fun while it lasted, huh?)
Linfield (Cannot lose a pair to lowly Willamette)

[wartburgalum]

Big Poppa-

With Wartburg winning 9 in a row sitting a top the IIAC in control of their own destiny and playing very well, you don't even have them in your top 25.  Ouch.  No love for the Iowa schools.

[BigPoppa]

Big Poppa-

With Wartburg winning 9 in a row sitting a top the IIAC in control of their own destiny and playing very well, you don't even have them in your top 25.  Ouch.  No love for the Iowa schools.

They are 19-11... no reason to give them any love on a national level at this point.

[wartburgalum]

Fair enough, maybe after this week.  Match ups with Coe and BV this weekend.  Big weekend to see how the IIAC shapes up.

Also, where do you see Wartburg and other IIAC teams matching up with the rest of the Central Region teams? IIAC got off to slow start (with the exception of BV) but it looks like we may have some contenders for a CWS birth.

[OshDude]

The first regional rankings are due out on Thursday. Here's how I think they should look for the Midwest and Central regions. I used in-region records through 4/20, which should be what this week's regional rankings reflect. Corrections and/or opinions appreciated. Lots more math available on the blog.

MIDWEST
Team, in-region record, (OWP)
1. St. Scholastica 15-1 (.528)
2. St. Thomas 15-5 (.643)
3. Wisconsin-Whitewater 14-8 (.597)
4. Rockford 15-6 (.579)
5. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 17-8 (.606)
6. St. Olaf 11-7 (.623)
Next four (in no order): Wisconsin Oshkosh 14-10 (.578), Aurora 16-7 (.510), Concordia Chicago 18-6 (.480), Wisconsin-La Crosse 13-10 (.568)

CENTRAL
Team, in-region record, (OWP)
1. Carthage 17-2 (.590)
2. Illinois Wesleyan 18-7 (.580)
3. Webster 20-7 (.517)
4. Buena Vista 18-5 (.462)
5. Augustana 17-7 (.463)
6. Beloit 14-3 (.412)
Next four (in no order): Washington 18-9 (unknown), Wartburg 15-11 (.534), Ripon 8-5 (.638), St. Norbert 12-7 (.538)

[BigPoppa]

After a bit of research... with much credit given to OshDude's blog... I am ready to reveal my thoughts about tomorrow's first NCAA Regional Ranking:

CENTRAL
Team, Overall record/in-region record, (Opponent's Winning Percentage)

1. Carthage 21-5/ 17-2 (.590)... Clearly the #1 team in the Central right now. In-line for a Pool C should they falter in the CCIW tourney.

2. Illinois Wesleyan 20-8/ 18-7 (.580)... A clear #2 in the region... IWU has overcome early season struggles to right the ship in time to make a run at the CCIW title. Near solid Pool C barring a collapse against Augustana.

3. Webster 23-11/ 20-7 (.517)... I have trouble putting them here, but they are 20-0 in the weak SLIAC. A dismal 3-10 record outside of SLIAC play shows either a brutally tough schedule or a weak conference. (Don't think they are the #3 team in the region, but I think they will be ranked there). Will make for many nervous stomachs on bid night should they falter in the SLIAC post-season.

4. Buena Vista 24-7/ 18-5 (.462)... A blistering start has quickly faded and a series with Wartburg this weekend will have major implications on their post-season hopes. I think they MUST win the IIAC Pool A to get in.

5. Augustana 21-10/ 17-7 (.463)... Probably the third best team in the region. Must win the CCIW tourney to get a bid. Have a bad habit of dropping games they should win in conference play this year. A huge three game series with IWU next week may eliminate them from all NCAA post-season talk.

6. Beloit 20-5/ 14-3 (.412)... A weak early season schedule may have inflated their hopes for this season. Will only get in if they win the Pool A bid in the MWC.

7. Wartburg 19-13/ 15-11 (.534), ... a traditional regional power that had a terrible start, but has played well enough lately to get back into the IIAC race. Need to beat BV this weekend in order to remain in the chatter.

8. WashU 18-9 (not sure on in-region as they play in the UAA, a national conference)... Only hope is a Pool B bid, but did not fare well versus other UAA teams earlier in the season. They need to pray for Chapman and other Pool B teams to lose games in the next two weeks. Not strong enough for a Pool C.

9. St. Norbert 14-8/ 12-7 (.538)... SNC, Like both Ripon and Beloit, needs to win the MWC Pool A bid if they wish to play beyond the conference tourney.

10. Ripon 11-11/ 8-5 (.638)... Why? Well, Ripon has played the toughest schedule of any team in the Central region and has still managed to hang around .500. A 3-7 start may have been due to the schedule, their struggles in the relatively weak MWC are a sign of trouble for the Red Hawks.

** As a whole, I see the CCIW getting two bids, The IIAC, SLIAC and MWC each getting one bid and depending on WashU 's finish, possibly having another out-of-region team shipped in to complete the bracket... possibly a team from the South(Shenandoah) or the Midwest(WIAC second bid).

[BigPoppa]

Post season match-ups if it ended today:
My prediction of a winner in bold


CCIW: @ #1 Seed

#1 Carthage vs. #4 Augustana
#2 IWU vs #3 Wheaton
*Carthage should win this, but I can see any of the four getting hot.


SLAIC: @ Glik Park- Highland, IL

#1 Webster vs #4 Blackburn
#2 Maryville vs #3 Fontbonne
*Webster is unmatched in the SLIAC


MWC: @ North Champion- St. Norbert

#1 North- St. Norbert vs #2 South- Grinnell
#1 South- Monmouth vs #2 North- Beloit
* If Ripon manages to sneak into the MWC tourney, I think they have the experience to win it and earn the Pool A bid.


IIAC: @ Popcorn Field- Cedar Rapids, IA

#1 Buena Vista
#2 Coe
#3 Wartburg vs #6 Simpson
#4 Luther vs #5 Loras
* Wartburg is playing the best baseball right now of anyone in the IIAC.

[wartburgalum]

Big Poppa-

Here I am asking you why you show no love to Wartburg in your top 25 and then they go out and get beat twice by Coe.  I guess it goes to show what this alum really knows.  I do like your picks for the IIAC tourny champ.  I think that this weekend series with BV will tell us a lot about what kind of team Wartburg (and BV) is.  Though you never can predict a weekend tourny as anyone can catch fire at the right time and make a run.

[BigPoppa]

NCAA Regional Rankings as of 4/23:

Central
1. Carthage
2. Ill Wesleyan
3. Webster
4. Buena Vista
5. Augustana
6. Beloit


Looks like I got lucky on my predictions for the Central. FROM 4/22:

After a bit of research... with much credit given to OshDude's blog... I am ready to reveal my thoughts about tomorrow's first NCAA Regional Ranking:

CENTRAL
Team, Overall record/in-region record, (Opponent's Winning Percentage)

1. Carthage 21-5/ 17-2 (.590)... Clearly the #1 team in the Central right now. In-line for a Pool C should they falter in the CCIW tourney.

2. Illinois Wesleyan 20-8/ 18-7 (.580)... A clear #2 in the region... IWU has overcome early season struggles to right the ship in time to make a run at the CCIW title. Near solid Pool C barring a collapse against Augustana.

3. Webster 23-11/ 20-7 (.517)... I have trouble putting them here, but they are 20-0 in the weak SLIAC. A dismal 3-10 record outside of SLIAC play shows either a brutally tough schedule or a weak conference. (Don't think they are the #3 team in the region, but I think they will be ranked there). Will make for many nervous stomachs on bid night should they falter in the SLIAC post-season.

4. Buena Vista 24-7/ 18-5 (.462)... A blistering start has quickly faded and a series with Wartburg this weekend will have major implications on their post-season hopes. I think they MUST win the IIAC Pool A to get in.

5. Augustana 21-10/ 17-7 (.463)... Probably the third best team in the region. Must win the CCIW tourney to get a bid. Have a bad habit of dropping games they should win in conference play this year. A huge three game series with IWU next week may eliminate them from all NCAA post-season talk.

6. Beloit 20-5/ 14-3 (.412)... A weak early season schedule may have inflated their hopes for this season. Will only get in if they win the Pool A bid in the MWC.

7. Wartburg 19-13/ 15-11 (.534), ... a traditional regional power that had a terrible start, but has played well enough lately to get back into the IIAC race. Need to beat BV this weekend in order to remain in the chatter.

8. WashU 18-9 (not sure on in-region as they play in the UAA, a national conference)... Only hope is a Pool B bid, but did not fare well versus other UAA teams earlier in the season. They need to pray for Chapman and other Pool B teams to lose games in the next two weeks. Not strong enough for a Pool C.

9. St. Norbert 14-8/ 12-7 (.538)... SNC, Like both Ripon and Beloit, needs to win the MWC Pool A bid if they wish to play beyond the conference tourney.

10. Ripon 11-11/ 8-5 (.638)... Why? Well, Ripon has played the toughest schedule of any team in the Central region and has still managed to hang around .500. A 3-7 start may have been due to the schedule, their struggles in the relatively weak MWC are a sign of trouble for the Red Hawks.

[trip21]

Don't understand Webster in the 3 spot. All regional wins in the SLIAC + one good one from Wesleyan. Wartburg, Coe, Wash U must be shaking their heads. All other spots seem pretty dead on (though I don't see Augustana there in the next ranking after the Benedictine loss and potential games vs. IWU)

[BigPoppa]

Don't understand Webster in the 3 spot.

Me either, but I correctly predicted that they would end up there in the first rankings (see below).

3. Webster 23-11/ 20-7 (.517)... I have trouble putting them here, but they are 20-0 in the weak SLIAC. A dismal 3-10 record outside of SLIAC play shows either a brutally tough schedule or a weak conference. (Don't think they are the #3 team in the region, but I think they will be ranked there). Will make for many nervous stomachs on bid night should they falter in the SLIAC post-season.

[BigPoppa]

I might also re-evaluate my regional rankings and find a place to slip Wheaton in there. The Thunder are playing great baseball and knocked off IWU this week... can still grab the #2 spot in the CCIW this weekend.

I might drop them into the #7/8 spot right now and if they have a good weekend against IW, I think we may see them creep into the regional rankings. The same can be said for Wartburg with their BIG series against Buena Vista this weekend.

Great games all over the region this weekend and should provide some great fodder for discussion of new rankings next week.

[BigPoppa]

Central Region Conference Races...

IIAC Top Six play in post-season tourney
Loras College 12 6
Wartburg College 13 7 
Buena Vista Univ. 12 7
Coe College 13 8
*This is turning out to be a great race for the post-season... the best race in the Central Region.


CCIW Top Four play in post-season tourney
Carthage 12-1
Illinois Wesleyan 12-5
Wheaton (Ill.) 11-6
Augustana 8-7
North Central 6-8
* Carthage is the logical #1 seed, but after that, #2 and #3 are up for grabs between IWU and Wheaton as is the #4 slot with Augustana and NCC battling it out.


Midwest Conference Top two from EACH division advance to post-season tourney
[i]North [/i]
St. Norbert  6-2
Beloit  9-5
Ripon  5-3

South 
Grinnell 6-2
Monmouth 6-2
Knox 4-4 
*Rain has caused a panic in the MWC as game after game has been rained out. Lots of baseball to play yet before it is all settled. The North offers a great battle as Ripon tries to overcome a terrible start to get back in the mix.


SLIAC Top four teams reach post-season tourney.
Webster  23-0
Maryville (Mo.) 15-6
Fontbonne 10-9
Greenville  11-10
Blackburn  11-11
*While Webster has run away with this league, the #3 and #4 spots are up for grabs as Fontbonne, Greenville and Blackburn all have a shot at grabbing a slot... and can just as easily be left out of it all.

[BigPoppa]

BigPoppa's Central Region Rankings Prediction(4/29):

1. Carthage: clear-cut #1
2. Webster: clear-cut #2
3/4. Illinois Wesleyan/ Wheaton (great battle for CCIW #2/#3 slot) Wheaton took 2 of 3 from IWU.
5. Wartburg (charging hard in the IIAC... can they get it done in time to grab the #1 seed)
6. WashU (gonna be a close call on whether or not they get a bid. Big DH with Webster might determine their Pool B fate)
7/8. Grinnell/Ripon (Ripon is shooting up the standings lately, while Grinnell is an average team in a division)
9/10. Loras/Buena Vista (BV really hurt themselves last week by dropping a pair to Wartburg as Loras blew by into the IIAC lead)
11. Augustana (what a disappointment from this team, I was very high on them in the pre-season and they started out looking great)
12. Beloit (I think the other shoe just fell... the Bucs' Cinderella season has struck midnight)

*The deeper we go the more teams are breaking into my regional rankings. It should clear this week as many of the rainouts are due to be made up in the next 7 days. Teams' pitching staffs will be tested all over the Central Region this week as long as the rain holds off again.