BB: South Region General Talk -- '07, '08, '09 and '10

[fightingquaker1]

I mean Hart isn't a strike out pitcher, but he kept Greensboro's hitters off balanced all game. Reminded me of a Jamie Moyer performance. Well, a few years back at least 

[Pauperboy]

Think we are far enough along to go ahead and start this thread. Went ahead and did some research. Please note I only included 10 schools. I would have like to included more teams but I got tired and didn't have the energy to go 14 or 15 teams deep. Please feel free to check my numbers are correct.


The first thing I did was take the combined opponents wins and losses to basically get an idea of strength of schedule and ranked them accordingly.

1.) Virginia Wes- 129-81    .614 opp. win %
2.) Emory-          171-120   .588 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes-      168-129     .566 opp. win %
4.) CNU-            133-106    .556 opp. win %
5.) Salisbury-    108-88      .551 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah-135-112   .547 opp. win %
7.) Millsaps-      146-129    .531 opp. win %
8.) Methodist-   159-148    .518 opp. win %
9.) York-           113-113     .500 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg-  149-155    .490 opp. win %

Records vs. opp. w/records of .500 or better

1.) Millsaps-    13-0    1.000
2.) York-            7-1     .875
3.) Salisbury-  11-3      .786
4.) CNU-          9-3-1    .731
5.) Shenandoah 10-4  .714
6.) Emory           8-5    .615
    Virginia Wes. 8-5   .615
8.) Methodist     7-6    .538
9.) Rhodes-     10-10   .500
10.) Lynchburg-  2-4    .333


In-Region Records

York-              13-0     1.000
Millsaps-        21-3       .875
Shenandoah- 14-3      .815
Salisbury-      12-3       .800
CNU-              10-4       .714
Methodist-       8-5       .615
Lynchburg-      8-5       .615
Emory-             9-6       .600
Rhodes-         12-8       .600
Virginia Wes.- 6-6        .500


Once again this was all done in fun and not so much by the book. If I had to go ahead and rank the Top 8 in the South as of today....

1.)Millsaps          -body of work justifies it.....region too deep to avoid slip ups
2.)York               -beat Salisbury and haven't lost a region game...schedule not all that
                            tough though.....will need to prove it belongs
3.)CNU               - splitting conference weekends good but not good enough...schedule
                            lightens up before big weekend with Methodist
4.)Salisbury       -not a big fan of their scheduling...but they win and its usually enough
                          to get them in a regional...perfect DIII baseball location...far enough
                          north to not play solid South region teams and close enough for the Mid-
                          Atlantic teams to step outside for the 1st time and try to compete
5.)Shenandoah  -would be higher w/ better effort against Methodist...@ Wash. Lee,
                            @ Lynchburg and series vs. NCW will tell the tale
6.)Emory            -solid start to season but nothing that opens your eyes
7.)Methodist      -2 wins over Shenandoah are nice...win over LC but loss to VW
                           Wesleyan and 2 L's to NC Wesleyan not so nice
8.)Rhodes          -8 losses in region all ready....but probably have one of the toughest
                             schedules to date...20 games vs. quality opp....will need to pile on
                             wins in conference play to be in serious consideration....Lynchburg
                             and Virginia Wesleyan could be in this spot as well

[OshDude]

Cool. As a heads-up, I only looked at Millsaps and noticed two teams on its sked are not in-region – Belhaven and IL Wesleyan. That would put 'em at 20-3 in-region. Please keep doing the numbers. +1

[pbrooks3]

Saw Rhodes take 2 of 3 last weekend at home over Centre.  They have a nice team with decent blend of players. They love to run the bases.

[coachmilburn]

South Region Top teams out of 100 -- Iterative Strength Ratings

Last updated: Sat Apr 4 08:51:07 2009

Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html

                     D3         Overall
Rank Rating   W   L      W   L    SoS  Team 
02   131.4   19   3     27   3     9  Millsaps
20   119.0   16   2     21   4   106  Salisbury
21   118.7   16   3     22   4    88  Shenandoah
26   117.2   12   4     14   4    50  Christopher Newport
36   114.0   19   7     19   7    75  Methodist
41   113.3   16   5     17   6    99  Birmingham-Southern
51   111.3   14   7     16   8    66  Virginia Wesleyan
52   111.0   14   9     14  10    44  Piedmont
57   109.9   16   9     16  11    68  North Carolina Wesleyan
61   108.9   13  10     20  11    41  Rhodes
63   108.2   12   4     15   7   154  Guilford
71   106.7   10   5     16   8   128  Oglethorpe
74   105.5   11  10     18  11    52  Emory
78   104.6   16   8     16   8   146  Lynchburg
80   104.3   10   5     11   9   149  Mary Washington
89   103.2   11  10     13  10    82  Huntingdon
95   102.2    8   4     13   5   170  Washington and Lee
97   101.6    8   7     10  12   103  Catholic


What are the ISR's?

The ISR's are the results of an algorithm designed to measure the quality of a team's season to date by combining their winning percentage with the difficulty of their schedule. The algorithm computes all teams simultaneously and attempts to take advantage of inter-regional games more accurately than other rating systems.

How are the ISR's computed?

The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles.

Why are the ISR's needed?

While it's still a great game, college baseball suffers from the lack of an accurate rating system for measuring team quality. The traditional polls suffer from voters running on auto-pilot, and the RPI's used by the selection committee have some serious problems with the method used to determine strength of schedule. Because of the small amount of inter-regional play in the sport, some regions tend to be under-represented in the NCAA tournament, and mid-rank large conference teams tend to be unfairly excluded. Although trying to get the selection committee to acknowledge this may be a hopeless case, the ISR's are an attempt to find a better rating system.

[Pauperboy]

Update Regional Statistics as of 4/7

Being this far along in the season, I went ahead and soley focused on in-region contests only. Once again, I did my best to double check out of region vs. in-region contests...but if there is one I missed please feel free to speak up.

As for in-region Strength of Schedule....calculated are opponents winning percentages. If they played an opponent more than once then it was factored in that way.

1.) Virginia Wesleyan    301-208      .591 opp. win %
2.) Huntingdon              271-216      .556 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes                    394-320       .552 opp. win %
4.) Christopher New.     278-232      .545 opp. win %
5.) Methodist                 293-248      .542 opp. win %
5.) Shenendoah            332-280       .542 opp. win %
7.) Emory                      353-306       .536 opp. win %
8.) York                         332-293       .531 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury                 293-286       .506 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg              283-277      .505 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps                407-441        .480 opp. win %

In-Region Records

1.) Millsaps                 24-4     .857
2.) Shenendoah         20-4     .833
3.) Salisbury               19-4     .826
4.) York                       17-6    .739
5.) Methodist              14-6    .700
6.) Christopher New.  12-6    .667
7.) Lynchburg             13-8    .619
8.) Huntingdon           11-7    .611
9.) Emory                    14-9   .609
10.) Rhodes                17-11 .607
11.) Virginia Wesleyan 10-9  .526

My South Region Rankings

1.) Millsaps            -haven't done anything to leave this spot, certainly have earned it
                               but with their S.O.S. being what it is....are they battle tested enough
                               to win a NCAA Regional? SCAC tourney may provide answers
2.) Shenandoah    -slightly ahead of Salisbury in my mind......not the most challenging of
                              schedules the rest of the way....important series w/ NCW....rematch w/
                              Methodist in the USAC Tourney would be fun to watch
3.) Salisbury          -sent a message to York in their revenge game although York didn't
                               back down in the second tilt...certainly no lock to win CAC Tourney but
                               definitently the favorites....pretty much a lock Pool B bid barring a
                               disaster
4.) Methodist         - tough 4 game stretch vs. a pesky Ferrum squad and solid Christopher
                               Newport club....still have games w/ Emory and Piedmont...nice season
                               so far but will have to keep playing well to stay where they are
5.) York                  -rebounded from tough series w/ Salisbury to win 3 out of their next 4
                               still have work to do with Stevenson and Mary Wash left before CAC
                               Tourney...not to mention post CAC Tourney tilts w/ Hopkins, Newport,
                               and NC Wesleyan.....will show how good they are.....or not
6.) Chris. Newport   -only 2-2 in their last 4....enough to drop them down...Methodist
                                looms ahead this weekend....will get better idea of where they are at
                                yes Lynchburg beat them head to head...but CNU's schedule is a
                                little stronger and in my mind the USAC is slightly better than ODAC

Rest of the rest:   Lynchburg, Emory, Rhodes, Huntingdon

[OshDude]

Very cool again, Pauperboy. In figuring OWP, did you subtract the team's results from the equation? Put simpler, if you're figuring Millsap's OWP, don't factor in the games Millsaps played against its opponents. And of course use only in-region games for the opponents' records. Just wanna make sure you're doing it correctly.

Please keep doing it!

[coachmilburn]

For what it's worth ...
D3 South Region teams in Top 100 -- Iterative Strength Ratings

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html

Last updated: Tue Apr 7 08:51:51 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.

                     D3       Overall
Rank Rating   W   L      W   L    SoS  Team     

   2   130.8   19   3     27   3    13  Millsaps
21   118.2   16   2     21   4   128  Salisbury
23   118.0   18   4     24   5    89  Shenandoah
35   115.8   21   7     22   8    72  Methodist
36   115.7   13   5     15   6    54  Christopher Newport
46   112.7   16   5     17   6   117  Birmingham-Southern
50   111.9   14   7     16   8    66  Virginia Wesleyan
58   110.4   15  11     15  12    35  Piedmont
65   109.0   13  10     20  11    41  Rhodes
71   107.8   10   5     16   9   119  Oglethorpe
72   107.7   17  11     17  14    85  North Carolina Wesleyan
73   107.4   13  11     20  13    46  Emory
77   105.9   16   8     16   8   140  Lynchburg
79   105.6   12   6     15   9   150  Guilford
90   104.2   10   5     11   9   164  Mary Washington


York, PA must NOT be reporting to NCAA?  Boyd pulls data from http://www.ncaa.org/stats/ which appears to be updated on Tuesdays.

[coachmilburn]

South Region team's in Top 150 of Boyd's Iterative Strength Ratings

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html

Last updated: Thu Apr 9 08:52:14 2009

Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.

               D3       Overall
Rank Rating   W   L      W   L    SoS  Team     

    1   131.0   19   3     29   4      13  Millsaps
  16   119.7   18   4     24   5      67  Shenandoah
  24   117.5   21   2     26   4    169  Salisbury
  29   116.7   13   5     15   6      46  Christopher Newport
  35   116.2   21   7     22   8      69  Methodist
  49   114.4   18   6     19   7      96  Birmingham-Southern
  62   110.8   15  11     22  12    39  Rhodes
  65   110.2   15   9     17  10     64  Virginia Wesleyan
  66   109.9   15  12     15  13    38  Piedmont
  68   108.8   17  11     17  14    79  North Carolina Wesleyan
  69   108.7   19  10     19  10   108  Lynchburg
  71   108.3   13  11     20  13    44  Emory
  82   106.1   12   6     13  10   153  Mary Washington
105   102.8     9   6     14   7    155  Washington and Lee
110   102.3   13   8     16  11   180  Guilford
120   101.1   10   9     11  11   129  Ferrum
130   100.2     9   9     14  14   121  Catholic
148     97.0    9  12     12  15   116  Randolph-Macon
149     96.8    8  14     12  16    76  Greensboro

[coachmilburn]

NCAA Division III Baseball -- South Region - Iterative Strength Ratings

*Of the teams reporting to NCAA*

Last updated: Tue Apr 14 08:52:04 2009

Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html

               D3       Overall
Rank Rating   W   L      W   L    SoS  Team     

  1   130.3   23   3     33   4    13  Millsaps
18   119.2   20   5     28   6    66  Shenandoah
23   117.8   24   2     29   4   183  Salisbury
24   117.5   16   6     18   7    42  Christopher Newport
32   116.6   23   9     24  10    51  Methodist
37   115.9   19   6     20   7    92  Birmingham-Southern
55   112.0   20  12     20  15    47  North Carolina Wesleyan
57   111.8   15  11     22  12    34  Rhodes
62   110.8   15   9     17  10    63  Virginia Wesleyan
65   110.2   15  13     16  16    31  Piedmont
66   110.2   20  10     20  10   103  Lynchburg
77   108.4   14  14     21  16    32  Emory
78   108.2   12   8     18  12    88  Oglethorpe 
84   107.0   13   6     14  13   167  Mary Washington
100   104.2   12  12     19  13    67  Huntingdon
106   103.4   11  10     12  13   100  Ferrum
107   103.4    9   6     14   7   158  Washington and Lee
108   103.4   13   8     16  12   171  Guilford
137    99.8   10  16     15  18    52  Greensboro
149    97.4    9  13     12  16   102  Randolph-Macon
159    96.4   11  14     14  15   137  Hampden-Sydney
168    95.4    9  12     14  18   144  Catholic
175    93.9   11  21     13  22   105  Averett
185    91.7    6  16      9  18    89  Eastern Mennonite
187    91.2    8  17     14  18   124  Stevenson
190    90.9    4   9      6  15   119  Centre
196    90.0    5  12      8  15   122  Roanoke
220    85.3    4  12      5  20   166  Emory and Henry



http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html

[coachmilburn]

I posted this on a reply on the "National topics board, under Multiple Conferences bids".

he other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figure out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers. 

As of today, April 21st @ 12:40pm, is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...

Shenandoah University :
25-7 "in-region" .781%  (corrected, I missed a game, I previously had 24 wins)

0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
2-1 vs. FC  (corrected, I missed the tourney game)
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
8-7 vs. USA-South overall (corrected)
8-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU (corrected)
7-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU (corrected)

(.722%) 13-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.



Methodist University :
16-10 "in-region" .615%  (correction, included Albertus Magnus College 2wins by mistake)

2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU

(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

MU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 249-210-3  (.538961%)
I did not include the games with MU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%

1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU

(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

CNU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 238-191-2  (.5522051%)
I did not include the games with CNU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?   

By no means am I stating these numbers are 100% accurate, I already discovered a mistake MU's "in-region" record that I included 2wins.  I would not be surprised IF they might be an error here or there.

[A.G.]

You have done some good work...and we will get a little better (although unofficial) idea of how the teams stack up when the regional rankings are released sometime in the near future. 

[Ralph Turner]

You have done some good work...and we will get a little better (although unofficial) idea of how the teams stack up when the regional rankings are released sometime in the near future. 

...on Thursday.

[NCWC]

IF a USAS team gets an at-large bid:


With the possibility of millsaps being sent to another region can the other usas at large be sent to another region? Or would that definitely mean they usas at large  would be in the south region at salisbury?


Any shots at an all region team?

[Pauperboy]

I'll take a final crack at this before the official rankings come out. I'm gonna also take a stab at how the Salisbury Regional will look in a few weeks. It's great to see Milby provide those numbers. As much as I would love to be official and exact with regards to OWP and OOWP, they don't pay me enough to sift through all that data for this amount of teams. I think you'll find my numbers comparable to those already mentioned anyway.

Opponent's Win Percentage  **ONLY REGIONAL GAMES INCLUDED**

1.) North Carolina Wesleyan        .608 opp. win %
2.) Emory                                     .577 opp. win %
3.) Huntingdon                             .565 opp. win %
4.) Christopher Newport              .557 opp. win %
5.) Methodist                               .555 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah                           .550 opp. win %
7.) York                                        .542 opp. win %
8.) Virginia Wesleyan                   .535 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury                                 .512 opp. win %
10.) Rhodes                                  .507 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps                                 .504 opp. win %
12.) Lynchburg                             .502 opp. win %

In-Region Records

1.) Salisbury               26-5           .839
2.) Millsaps                 30-6           .833
3.) Shenandoah         25-7           .781
4.) York                      24-9           .727
5.) Lynchburg            19-10          .655
6.) CNU                      17-9           .654
7.) Rhodes                 20-11         .645
8.) Methodist             16-10         .615
9.) NCW                     21-14         .600
10.) Huntingdon        14-10          .583
11.) VW                     15-11          .577
12.) Emory                 17-14         .548


If I were guessing as to what the first regional ranking will look like, this is it....


1.) Millsaps              -looking forward to the Millsaps Invitational, I'm sorry I mean the SCAC
                                Conference Tournament. It their's to lose but they will have to earn it.
                                DePauw actually has an easy road if they take advantage of it. Millsaps
                                vs. Rhodes on Day 2 could be interesting matchup.
2.) Salisbury           - spotted Stevenson 5 runs in CAC Finals and still won by 11. If they are
                                lucky Millsaps gets shipped out of the South and a regional on their
                                home turf equals easy road to Appleton, WI.
3.) Shenandoah     - was disappointed with the result of the USA South Conference
                                 Tourney. Didn't do anything to silence their critics....but I am not one of
                                 them. I think they are in. No doubt. But as history tells us (Rhodes 2007
                                 and UT-Tyler 2008) nothing is for sure.
4.) York                  - The reality is there isn't much quality across the country in the Pool B
                                 department. Combine that with a decent record and they should get in.
5.) Lynchburg         - Will probably need to win ODAC Tourney to get in regional. Numbers
                                 probably not good enough to get a Pool C bid.
6a.) CNU
6b.) Methodist        -take your pick. Too close to call. Probably won't matter anyway. Need
6c.) Rhodes              alot of things to go their way to get a bid. Rhodes takes their shot in
                                 the SCAC this week.

As for how the regional would be set up....the biggest discussion is what is going to happen with Millsaps. Some seem to think that they are destined to be shipped out of the South and into the Central or even Mid-East. I don't see how that makes sense.

Jackson, MS to Salisbury, MD                  about 1,100 mi.
                    to Adrian, MI (Mid-East)      about  905 mi.
                    to Rock Island, IL (Central) about  760 mi.

I could see if the other options were somewhere in the 500 mi. range, it would make sense to ship them out. Is 400 mi. that big of a difference to send a team out of its region??? Guess we will find out. So for now, let's assume that Millsaps will be shipped out of the South and into the Central. My prediction for the regional would look like this....

1.) Salisbury        Pool B
2.) Shenandoah  Pool C  At Large
3.) York               Pool B
4.) NCW              USAC Champ Pool A
5.) Lynchburg      *ODAC Champ  Pool A    (*obviously assuming they win)
6.) Frostburg St.  *AMCC Champ Pool A     (*obviously assuming they win)

That last spot is really up in the air. So much could happen to determine that final spot. Putting Frostburg St. in there shows you just how one team winning can affect so much. The reality is that all those bubble teams in the South (CNU, Methodist, Rhodes) really have no margin for error and need zero upsets in other Conference Tourneys. Same goes for Lynchburg if they fall short in the ODAC Tourney.