East Region Fan Poll

[lewdogg11]

Are you voter #1?  Everyone has pretty much fessed up but voter 1

If everyone is so interested, yes, I am the stubborn as hell voter #1.  I like to try and stay out of the "parsing every ballot" discussions since I don't want to keep anyone from joining in the future for fear they'll have to spend hours discussing why they placed each team where they did.  We've had a hard enough time getting 7 voters this year!

But feel free to say Kaz is a d-bag rather than voter #1 from now on.

No one is calling anyone a d-bag, minus maybe Charles...

It's just interesting how you had 2 teams behind Cortland that both beat them.  It's not wrong, it just didn't make a heck of a lot of sense to a few people.  Especially since both(Kean/Montclair) were undefeated at the time.  Now that Kean has lost to a previous 0 win Brockport(although they've played pretty much every team close), I can understand it.  I like to rank the teams on a week by week basis rather than trying to stay static and guess what the end of the year will look like.  In that case, we could just keep our pre-season polls and talk about it at the end of the year.

[Frank Rossi]

OK, let's get to the heart of the matter.  Kaz, enlighten me on this -- what are you seeing that I'm not?  Cortland loses to Montclair head-to-head and has a two-loss differential.  Cortland has no major victory aside from a moderate one against Rowan.  Their loss to Kean looks even worse now, since Kean just lost to a former oh-fer team (sorry pg).  How is that positioning tenable?

Listen, you and I both saw the Alfred/Cortland game last year in the Second Round of the NCAA Playoffs.  We were both impressed by both teams.  That said, neither team is at their 2010 level.  Cortland started in my rankings as the highest East Region team and now doesn't even appear in my Lambert Poll ballot (meaning, not in the Top 10 of the ECAC teams eligible in that system).  Until they do something noteworthy (like win a few games in a row or beat Ithaca or something of the like), I can't put that team over Montclair.

Trust me, I face this issue in the national poll.  I still have Trine over Adrian despite Adrian's head-to-head win over Trine.  I'm giving Trine a little benefit of the doubt because of the team's normal dominance in their conference and their history in playoff games giving the team an overall advantage down the stretch.  That said, Trine is #23 and Adrian would be #26 if I had to vote it out further than 25 -- and that margin continues to shrink.  If Adrian keeps winning and Trine doesn't impress me one week, those two will invert.  I had Trine further up than most, so #23 was a crash for Trine on my ballot.  Adrian wasn't even a consideration, so #26 is an overall leap.  But all that said, if the loss differential between the teams were two losses, Trine wouldn't be in the same echelon as Adrian on my ballot at that point.  Every benefit of the doubt would be gone, and I'd have room for Adrian in the actual ballot.

So, I'm not a stranger to these decisions.  I just want to see your own insight on this one.

[dlippiel]

Honestly, what makes this poll great is all of our interpretations of the individual East Region teams and how good they are in comparison to each other.  With none of us getting paid and realistically able to see every team play, this can be challenging. We look at stats, we look at comparative scores, and we trust each others thoughts regarding certain teams. dlip stated previously that he really trusted wesleydad's thoughts on Kean in comparison to Wesley and Cortland since he saw all three teams play and is quite knowledgeable.

Like dlip said before, he was very hesitant with Kean and felt, as a result of their very unimpressive wins over very questionable competition, that they were suspect and not deserving of a #1 spot. Finally, with the wins over the likes of Wesley and Cortland, plus the undefeated record, dlip finally rewarded Kean with a number #1 spot. What the **** happens??? Kean loses to a winless Brockport. This is a great win for Borckport and dlip gives them credit, but, it does prove, that even with the impressive victories over Cortland and Wesley, Kean really isn't as good, as some thought they were. Hence, Kaz, dlip gives you a ton of credit for sticking to your guns even through all the uproar on this thread. As a matter of fact dlip is a bit disappointed in himself for not sticking to his guns in the case of Kean. +k buddy!

[rams1102]

Coming home from work tonight I thought, let's check how the ERFP stacks up against the other Polls in reference to the East. D3, AFCA and D3 Fan Poll.

             D3            AFCA            ERFP #3        ERFP           D3 Fan Poll
1.     Montclair     Montclair         Montclair          Salisbury            TBD
2.     Del Val        Del Val             Salisbury          Montclair              "
3.     Salisbury     Salisbury          Del Val             Del Val                 "
4.     Kean           Kean                Fisher              Hobart                 "
5.     Hobart        Endicott            Hobart            Fisher                   "
6.     Cortland     Cortland            Kean               Kean                    "
7.     Leb Val        Hobart             Cortland          Cortland               "
8.     Endicott      Fisher               Lycoming         Widner                 "
9.     Fisher         Lycoming          Leb Val            Lycoming             "
10.   Rowan                                Endicott           Leb Val                "

Let's see how the comments shake out. Looks like I get shot down with my Fisher vs Hobart pick, but my Montclair pick at #1 looks better. Endicott appears that they belond.

[gordonmann]

Here's another point of reference, the Lambert poll administered by the ECAC. The Lambert poll encompasses the East region plus the teams from the Centennial Conference, Wesley, Presidents Athletic Conference and a few spare teams in Pennsylvania, Virginia and DC.  The pollsters are mostly media, I believe, including a handful of people from D3football.com.

The poll is posted here. Let's see who can spot the strangest vote first.

http://www.ecacsports.com/lambert/2011-12_Releases/Lambert_Release_Week_2_Poll.pdf

[pg04]

I'm assuming it's Brockport somehow receiving a vote at 1-5. 

[Ralph Turner]

Here's another point of reference, the Lambert poll administered by the ECAC. The Lambert poll encompasses the East region plus the teams from the Centennial Conference, Wesley, Presidents Athletic Conference and a few spare teams in Pennsylvania, Virginia and DC.  The pollsters are mostly media, I believe, including a handful of people from D3football.com.

The poll is posted here. Let's see who can spot the strangest vote first.

http://www.ecacsports.com/lambert/2011-12_Releases/Lambert_Release_Week_2_Poll.pdf

Thanks for the link...

Question for the general readership...

If Boise State is accepted into Big East, might they be considered in the ECAC poll?

After all, they are east of the Cascades...

[clandfan]

OK, let's get to the heart of the matter.  Kaz, enlighten me on this -- what are you seeing that I'm not?  Cortland loses to Montclair head-to-head and has a two-loss differential.  Cortland has no major victory aside from a moderate one against Rowan.  Their loss to Kean looks even worse now, since Kean just lost to a former oh-fer team (sorry pg).  How is that positioning tenable?

Listen, you and I both saw the Alfred/Cortland game last year in the Second Round of the NCAA Playoffs.  We were both impressed by both teams.  That said, neither team is at their 2010 level.  Cortland started in my rankings as the highest East Region team and now doesn't even appear in my Lambert Poll ballot (meaning, not in the Top 10 of the ECAC teams eligible in that system).  Until they do something noteworthy (like win a few games in a row or beat Ithaca or something of the like), I can't put that team over Montclair.

Trust me, I face this issue in the national poll.  I still have Trine over Adrian despite Adrian's head-to-head win over Trine.  I'm giving Trine a little benefit of the doubt because of the team's normal dominance in their conference and their history in playoff games giving the team an overall advantage down the stretch.  That said, Trine is #23 and Adrian would be #26 if I had to vote it out further than 25 -- and that margin continues to shrink.  If Adrian keeps winning and Trine doesn't impress me one week, those two will invert.  I had Trine further up than most, so #23 was a crash for Trine on my ballot.  Adrian wasn't even a consideration, so #26 is an overall leap.  But all that said, if the loss differential between the teams were two losses, Trine wouldn't be in the same echelon as Adrian on my ballot at that point.  Every benefit of the doubt would be gone, and I'd have room for Adrian in the actual ballot.

So, I'm not a stranger to these decisions.  I just want to see your own insight on this one.

This is the problem with polls.  Hardly anyone sees these teams play and you think you know all about them.  I will tell you that Cortland is better than they were in 2010 and their "poor" season breaks down to 2 plays.  A failed 4th and 2 from the 2 that would have beaten Kean and blown coverage against Montclair in the last minute of the game.  Had those two plays been successful, Cortland is undefeated and you are singing our praises.  They have played the toughest schedule to date in the NJAC and statistically have been the best in most catagories.  Yes, record is what counts and those two losses will probably bite us but someone who has seen these teams play, knows that Cortland may still be the best of the bunch.

[AUKaz00]

OK, let's get to the heart of the matter.  Kaz, enlighten me on this -- what are you seeing that I'm not?

Well, to be fair, it's a lot of little things which I'm valuing more than the H2H.  I feel like Cortland, Montclair and Rowan are all about equal with Kean a little lower.  Kean's big wins seem more like they were fortunate on a few plays to change the result; good enough to be in the game and lucky enough to win it.  But Kean does have those wins over Wesley and Cortland, so they count for something which is why I have them in and not Rowan.

As for why Cortland over Montclair, a one point win at home doesn't seem like enough evidence to declare Montclair better than Cortland.  Home field should count for something (which is why Alfred held Salisbury to 69 on saterday!).  On the season Cortland has gained more yards per game on offense and allowed fewer on defense than Montclair.  And the same occurred in their H2H - 406 to 280.  In a one point road loss where the losing team outgained the winner by 45%, I'll naturally think the losing team was a better team that got beat.

Plus, I won't hide the fact that I do love reading posts from LD11 and Yanks going off the handle, so my stubbornness may also stem from my desire to see some animated posts.  The poll itself works out the individual voter quirks, so taking a few small liberties in our rankings I think is a good thing overall.

[lewdogg11]

OK, let's get to the heart of the matter.  Kaz, enlighten me on this -- what are you seeing that I'm not?

Well, to be fair, it's a lot of little things which I'm valuing more than the H2H.  I feel like Cortland, Montclair and Rowan are all about equal with Kean a little lower.  Kean's big wins seem more like they were fortunate on a few plays to change the result; good enough to be in the game and lucky enough to win it.  But Kean does have those wins over Wesley and Cortland, so they count for something which is why I have them in and not Rowan.

As for why Cortland over Montclair, a one point win at home doesn't seem like enough evidence to declare Montclair better than Cortland.  Home field should count for something (which is why Alfred held Salisbury to 69 on saterday!).  On the season Cortland has gained more yards per game on offense and allowed fewer on defense than Montclair.  And the same occurred in their H2H - 406 to 280.  In a one point road loss where the losing team outgained the winner by 45%, I'll naturally think the losing team was a better team that got beat.

Plus, I won't hide the fact that I do love reading posts from LD11 and Yanks going off the handle, so my stubbornness may also stem from my desire to see some animated posts.  The poll itself works out the individual voter quirks, so taking a few small liberties in our rankings I think is a good thing overall.

My problem with what you posted above isn't even necessarily the head to head, but the fact that Cortland has lost 2 conference games so far, and Montclair zero.  A 2 game swing.  If Cortland's only loss was by 1 to Montclair, I don't think i'd have any issue with your assessment because it's fair. 

[Pat Coleman]

I'm assuming it's Brockport somehow receiving a vote at 1-5.

Not just a vote but apparently multiple mentions to be essentially No. 12.

[lewdogg11]

I'm assuming it's Brockport somehow receiving a vote at 1-5.

Not just a vote but apparently multiple mentions to be essentially No. 12.

I think a few weeks ago someone called Salve Regina the best 2-3 team in the country.  Is Brockport the best 1-5 team in the country?  Obviously...

[dlippiel]

dlip had UVM in his poll...oh wait they don't have a football program

[Yanks 99]

I agree with LD on this one, and removing Kean from the equation now, that the fact that Cortland now has two losses in the league and that Montclair has zero, I just have no idea how Cortland can be ranked ahead of Montclair, especially with Montclair winning the H2H match-up.

What makes football great compared to other sports, in my opinion, is the fact that the head to head match ups are so important.  Every game single matters.  I mean, if MUC had two similar losses to Cortland this season in their league where there was a perceived (although probably real) domination of their opponents in every aspect of the game except the scoreboard...they would still be on the outside looking in come playoff time.  You only get one shot at a team...nothing else really, truly matters...which is why H2H match-ups is the first tie-breaker, and always will be.

And clandfan, Cortland may be better than they were in 2010...but unlike 2010, they didn't get it done when they had to, and their "poor" season doesn't simply break down to 2 plays. 

- Let's take a look at the Kean game first, where you mentioned a failed 4th and goal at the Kean 2 yard line.  What about the previous 3 plays?  Cortland has a 1st and Goal at the 5 yard line, and then proceeded to run the ball for no gain on 1st down.  Then Cortland ran it again for 3 yards on 2nd down.  On third down it said Pitcher had a run/gain for no yards...so either it was a draw or he scrambled after dropping back.  Next was the incomplete pass on 4th and 2.  Good or great teams find a way to score...at home...with a first and goal at the 5 yard line...not complain that a failed 4th and 2 cost them the game.  Honestly...in that situation, I give all the credit in the world to the Kean defense.

- Now for Montclair...yes...there appears to have been "blown" coverage on Montclair's final drive to the tune of a 41 yards that set up the final FG that ultimately won the game for Montclair.  Or...it could have just been a great play/call going deep on 3rd and 4 at their own 42...it all depends on which sideline you are rooting for.   But the question that should be asked is why didn't Cortland respond after the FG?  You are acting like that FG was the final play of the game...but in reality, there was 1:16 remaining on the clock.  After the KO, Cortland had the ball at their own 37 yard line and 1:11 left to play, down by 1 point.  Going a little over 40 yards to get a shot at a 35 yard FG in just over one minute is not unheard of.  But how did Cortland respond?  A scramble by Pitcher, followed by 3 straight incomplete passes.  Also...I would challenge you that Cortland was lucky to get back in the game after being down 31-14 late in the 3rd.  What about getting a safety late in the game to put you up 33-31, and then getting the ball back on the KO at about the 50 with just under 5 minutes to go and a chance to run out the clock?  Again...good or great teams find a way to get that done...and Cortland didn't.

I am actually not ripping Cortland here...they were my preseason #1, and are still ranked in my top 10 despite two early losses where they had a chance to win both games on multiple occasions and failed to do so.  But let's not pretend that their "poor" season breaks down to 2 plays.  Teams that are "better" than they were the year before (when they made the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament) find ways to win both of those games when presented with multiple opportunities.  Personally though...I hope Montclair runs the table now so that we have a chance to keep MUC out of the East.

[dlippiel]

A very good post here Yanks, well done bud!