East Region Fan Poll

[ExTartanPlayer]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

[boobyhasgameyo]

Got an uncommon few minutes here on a Tuesday to give some insight/predictions of some interesting games this week:

Salisbury @ Buff St.
I don't think anyone can look forward to playing Buff St. right now.  They are obviously a Jeckyll and Hyde team but they are obviously very talented.  I expect last week's loss to be emotionally crushing.  I see Salisbury disposing of them without a ton of trouble, but I still wouldn't be surprised if that isn't the case.  Very interesting matchup.

Hobart @ WPI
Hobart continues to roll.  Although i thought WPI would have a half-decent season, they just can't get it together.  Hobart by more than a little.

Brockport @ Rowan
I'm starting to get this feeling that Rowan is dope.  I expect to see Rowan put a stamp on their season this week and let all the pee pee and poop haters know that they are for real.

Widener @ Leb Valley
Can Widener go for 90 again?  Doubt it against this team.  But I think Widener might be the beast in the MAC.

St. Lawrence @ Rochester
Just kidding...  Who cares about this one.

Utica @ Ithaca
Ithaca gets a chance here to prove their own fan base wrong.  Utica wins by 35.

Montclair @ Cortland
I think a lot of people thought more of both of these teams to start the year.  I'm not counting Cortland out yet, but Montclair is toast.  Cortland starts their run at it.  CState in a Monkey Stomp.

RPI @ MMA
Only here because of my allegiances...RPI should win big.  SHOULD is the key word.  They will win, but hopefully they have some swag doing it.

Springfield @ Union
Springfield hangs 40+.  Union drops a terd.  Frank writes 4 page analysis.  Participation trophy given to Union after the game.

Any take on the Fisher @ Bye Week?

Fisher does not lose on their bye week.  Still drops in the National Rankings.

I agree.  Bethel is knocking on the door to take over that number 9 spot. 

[redswarm81]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

[lewdogg11]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

Hey, we could always just have some nerd put together a BCS type algorithm that tells us who the best teams are.  But as we all know, this isn't an exact science either.  Either way, there will always be question marks.  Fortunately, of the 32 teams that make the playoffs, most times the best 5-6 teams in the country are in that mix.

[ExTartanPlayer]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

Hey, we could always just have some nerd put together a BCS type algorithm that tells us who the best teams are.  But as we all know, this isn't an exact science either.  Either way, there will always be question marks.  Fortunately, of the 32 teams that make the playoffs, most times the best 5-6 teams in the country are in that mix.

Exactly.  The beauty of AQ bids, while it does grant access to teams from weaker conferences, is that everyone DOES have a chance to play themselves into the playoffs.  It's almost impossible for a true national-championship-caliber team to be left out of the playoffs because if they were actually the best team in the nation, they probably should have won their conference (taking a moment to acknowledge that ONCE IN A WHILE a national-title team might lose by 3-7 points or in OT to a very, very, very good opponent such as 2005 Mount Union losing to Ohio Northern).  At the very least, everyone gets a chance to play their way in, and as LD said, that usually means that at least the top 5 teams in the nation should all end up in the field.

[Bombers798891]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

The problem with all polls (especially early season ones) is there isn't a lot of data to determine if things are outliers or not. Cortland's 2-1, but since they've played the two worst teams in the NJAC, what do we really know? Buffalo State's win over Whitewater's going to look a lot different if the Bengals fall to 2-3 this weekend.

But this can go on all year. Heck, how many weeks did we debate Fisher in (I think) 2008? Brutal OOC, monkeystomp over a great IC team, lackluster wins over dreck like Rochester and Utica. Did we ever decide how good that team really was? I mean, I still maintain that the 2004 Bombers were the best team Mike Welch ever had, and they didn't even make the playoffs. But I firmly believe that squad would have taken the 2003 Ithaca team that nearly won the East region to the cleaners.

[wesleydad]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

The problem with all polls (especially early season ones) is there isn't a lot of data to determine if things are outliers or not. Cortland's 2-1, but since they've played the two worst teams in the NJAC, what do we really know? Buffalo State's win over Whitewater's going to look a lot different if the Bengals fall to 2-3 this weekend.

But this can go on all year. Heck, how many weeks did we debate Fisher in (I think) 2008? Brutal OOC, monkeystomp over a great IC team, lackluster wins over dreck like Rochester and Utica. Did we ever decide how good that team really was? I mean, I still maintain that the 2004 Bombers were the best team Mike Welch ever had, and they didn't even make the playoffs. But I firmly believe that squad would have taken the 2003 Ithaca team that nearly won the East region to the cleaners.

redswarm, i get your point, but the win they had over del val far outweighs the close win against w conn.  they still won and as usual most teams end up playing a closer game than was expected.  to keep them out of the top 10 for that reason just doesnt make sense to me.  out of the 7 teams i have seen play this year, rowan is the 4th best i have seen.  the 3 better than them are UMHB, Wesley, and Salisbury.

[dlippiel]

Having not seen Rowan in person dlip cannot say he is any type of expert on the Profs but feels they clearly belong in the ER top ten. dlip always follows the Profs stats/season closley and feels this may be the best Profs team since the 2005 team played MUC so tough in a 19-7 defeat.

[redswarm81]

what caught my eye was that someone did not rank Rowan.  not sure how that could be.  guess they get a chance to change someones perspective this weekend.

Were I voting, I'd think long and hard about voting for a Rowan team that had to come back in the 2d half to beat Western CT by 6.  WestConn has lost 24 straight:

2010 average margin of loss = 31 points;
2011 average margin of loss = 36 points;
2012 1st 2 games, average margin of loss = 52 points.

I guess it really depends how much value you place on any one apparent "outlier" as part of a team's body of work. For example, UWW is still ranked 4th nationally (!) even with the loss to Buff State. Personally, I think Rowan is still getting credit for the season opening win over Del Val. I'm willing to excuse the occasional closer-than-it-should-have-been victory if there's at least one real quality WIN on the schedule. Leaving the East Region for a moment, last year Wabash barely survived a depleted Oberlin team with only 30-some players dressed for the game, then made a run to the quarterfinals.

In any case, this will all sort itself out in the end.

Agreed.  All would be included in my long and hard thinking, were I voting.  In poll voting, one difficulty I would have is how to reconcile single data points--the "outliers" as you describe them.  Polling is a way inexact science.  There are multiple (but limited) data points to consider, each of which is nearly useless by itself, such as margin of victory and record v. common opponents.

That said, I think WCSU in an in-conference game is a more weighty outlier than Buff State in an out-of-conference game.

The problem with all polls (especially early season ones) is there isn't a lot of data to determine if things are outliers or not. Cortland's 2-1, but since they've played the two worst teams in the NJAC, what do we really know? Buffalo State's win over Whitewater's going to look a lot different if the Bengals fall to 2-3 this weekend.

But this can go on all year. Heck, how many weeks did we debate Fisher in (I think) 2008? Brutal OOC, monkeystomp over a great IC team, lackluster wins over dreck like Rochester and Utica. Did we ever decide how good that team really was? I mean, I still maintain that the 2004 Bombers were the best team Mike Welch ever had, and they didn't even make the playoffs. But I firmly believe that squad would have taken the 2003 Ithaca team that nearly won the East region to the cleaners.

redswarm, i get your point, but the win [Rowan] had over del val far outweighs the close win against w conn.  [Rowan] still won [v. WestConn] and as usual most teams end up playing a closer game than was expected.  to keep them out of the top 10 for that reason just doesnt make sense to me.  out of the 7 teams i have seen play this year, rowan is the 4th best i have seen.  the 3 better than them are UMHB, Wesley, and Salisbury.

I don't know Dad, it's tough to agree with you on the "as usual" point.  For the past 24 games, WestConn has proved that "as usual" means losing by at least 30 points to a good team.  Rowan having a tough time with WestConn probably means something--I'm not sure what, but something -- it's not usual.

[wesleydad]

redswarm, where does it say the w conn cant play a close game against someone?  werent they due to play one sooner or later?

[redswarm81]

redswarm, where does it say the w conn cant play a close game against someone?  werent they due to play one sooner or later?

Where does it say?  I would start by looking at the 2010 and 2011 season records.  In those two seasons, WestConn won no games, and lost by an average of 31 and 38 points, respectively.  Their first two games this season were even worse.  The trend for over two seasons has been getting worse.  Sure, theoretically there's always the possibility of a breakout, but there's no evidence in the record that said or even hinted that it was going to occur last weekend against Rowan, or anytime this season against any good team.

Like I said, I don't know exactly what it means.  But I do know that "usual" and "ordinary" are adjectives that simply don't apply to the Western Connecticut Colonials right now.  With their 24 game losing streak and the huge scoring margins in those losses, WestConn has a good case to make that it's the weakest team in Division III right now, especially if you exclude Misericordia from the comparison.

I don't dispute your methodology, but I don't think it can be credibly applied to WestConn right now.

[lewdogg11]

redswarm, where does it say the w conn cant play a close game against someone?  werent they due to play one sooner or later?

Where does it say?  I would start by looking at the 2010 and 2011 season records.  In those two seasons, WestConn won no games, and lost by an average of 31 and 38 points, respectively.  Their first two games this season were even worse.  The trend for over two seasons has been getting worse.  Sure, theoretically there's always the possibility of a breakout, but there's no evidence in the record that said or even hinted that it was going to occur last weekend against Rowan, or anytime this season against any good team.

Like I said, I don't know exactly what it means.  But I do know that "usual" and "ordinary" are adjectives that simply don't apply to the Western Connecticut Colonials right now.  With their 24 game losing streak and the huge scoring margins in those losses, WestConn has a good case to make that it's the weakest team in Division III right now, especially if you exclude Misericordia from the comparison.

I don't dispute your methodology, but I don't think it can be credibly applied to WestConn right now.

I'd take Wesconn over Anna Maria or Husson.  Osborne St. Pub represent!!!



"Whatchu talkin bout LewDogg?"

[dlippiel]

redswarm, where does it say the w conn cant play a close game against someone?  werent they due to play one sooner or later?

Where does it say?  I would start by looking at the 2010 and 2011 season records.  In those two seasons, WestConn won no games, and lost by an average of 31 and 38 points, respectively.  Their first two games this season were even worse.  The trend for over two seasons has been getting worse.  Sure, theoretically there's always the possibility of a breakout, but there's no evidence in the record that said or even hinted that it was going to occur last weekend against Rowan, or anytime this season against any good team.

Like I said, I don't know exactly what it means.  But I do know that "usual" and "ordinary" are adjectives that simply don't apply to the Western Connecticut Colonials right now.  With their 24 game losing streak and the huge scoring margins in those losses, WestConn has a good case to make that it's the weakest team in Division III right now, especially if you exclude Misericordia from the comparison.

I don't dispute your methodology, but I don't think it can be credibly applied to WestConn right now.

I'd take Wesconn over Anna Maria or Husson.  Osborne St. Pub represent!!!



"Whatchu talkin bout LewDogg?"

As would dlip. There may be one or two others that could be thrown in there as well.

[rams1102]

The problem with most NJAC teams is that they tend to play to their opponents. Montclair is the best example. The UpState NY teams always play hard and are taught to keep the pedal to the medal. B-Port, Buff St and Morris always play hard whether they win or lose but recently have not been that good with the exception of Cortland) and now B-Port and Buff St. have stepped-up. Rowan was in that catagory in the early 2000's when they were the beast of the east, but since 2006 they have not. My guess is that Rowan took W.Conn too lightly and got in a rut. Many of the NJAC teams think they can turn it on and off. That will never get you deep into the playoffs. Can Rowan turn it back on against a tough B-Port? My answer is somewhat and they fall short. We will see sometime on Saturday.

[DVgradRUdad]

Hey Guys, have enjoyed reading your comments, had to look up my password to get back online it's been a while. As far as Rowan is concerned, my son played back in 04-06, had some good teams and it's hard to compare them with this team. As good as they were back then they had a few let downs but put it together in the playoffs, somewhat . There are still some questions about this team, but watching them they seem to have the potential to be a force. If you listened to the WConn game you might have noticed that some of the offensive big weapons were not in the lineup I assume the coach was resting some injured ball players for Brockport, We'll see if it paid off. Just a thought !