East Region Fan Poll

[SJFF82]

lew, i would agree with all your points.  your poll looks good to me.  i am going to the rowan/kean game this weekend and then to the del val/widener game next weekend.  want to see how rowan looks since i saw them in week 1 and then want to see if del val is playing as good as i thought they would at the beginning of the season.  if del val has straightened the offense out i think they will beat widener who relied on miracle comebacks against the other top teams in the mac, leb val and lycoming.  i know that lyco beat del val, but that was back in week 2 and i think that del val has changed their o up a little.  the win against leb val looks good to me for del val.  the east is imploding like the south is.  both seem to be eliminating each other so that very few will get a chance to be pool c's.  if utica beats salisbury, the gulls are out.  if kean beats rowan they are both likely out.  i think hobart is reall good, after that i think the east is suspect, but we shall see as it plays out the next 2 weeks.

man, you guys are taking this poll **** way too seriously to miss this one...no matter how many times its played itself out......

[SJFF82]

I agree with those that do not believe UWW should be a top 25 team on anyone's ballot at this point. Prestige is doing a LOT with this. It is similar to an argument I see on another board of Wheaton being ranked ahead of a team they beat and have one more loss than. Wheaton's name recognition in large part has garnered them being ahead of the other school.

While it's a good top 25 poll, there are definitely some big curiosities.

Similar with Alfred being ranked behind St. John Fisher last week.

but doesnt AU's loss this week 'vindicate' those that apparently saw past the H2H game and ranked SJF ahead of them?  Or is the poll just a week to week guessing game based on that Saterday's results?

[wesleydad]

lew, i would agree with all your points.  your poll looks good to me.  i am going to the rowan/kean game this weekend and then to the del val/widener game next weekend.  want to see how rowan looks since i saw them in week 1 and then want to see if del val is playing as good as i thought they would at the beginning of the season.  if del val has straightened the offense out i think they will beat widener who relied on miracle comebacks against the other top teams in the mac, leb val and lycoming.  i know that lyco beat del val, but that was back in week 2 and i think that del val has changed their o up a little.  the win against leb val looks good to me for del val.  the east is imploding like the south is.  both seem to be eliminating each other so that very few will get a chance to be pool c's.  if utica beats salisbury, the gulls are out.  if kean beats rowan they are both likely out.  i think hobart is reall good, after that i think the east is suspect, but we shall see as it plays out the next 2 weeks.

man, you guys are taking this poll **** way too seriously to miss this one...no matter how many times its played itself out......

+1, have to edit better next time.

[Frank Rossi]

I'm not saying Salve could beat them, but let's just consider that Bridgewater State will receive consideration before UWW does for Pool C -- and Bridgewater State may not make it to the NEFC Championship Game.  There is a LOT more parity across the Division right now than what you're assuming -- past the Top 10 is a complete jumble.

How the NCAA chooses to make its at-large decisions is not at all relevant to the Top 25.

Agreed there is parity beyond the Top 10, which is exactly how a three-loss Whitewater merits Top 25 votes.

Yes and no, Guru.  Pool C and Pool B (to the degree it exists) collectively are an effort to pick out "the best of the rest" in the Division.  It was pretty much the grand compromise to allow the AQ system to work across most sports in the Division.  What you're disagreeing with here is whether or not the MODEL used by the NCAA is an accurate assessment of relative strength. 

My point in bringing it up is that while the NCAA's selection system may be imperfect (and I think we agree, it generally is when comparing one- and two-loss teams), teams that won't even get a whiff of consideration from the Selection Committee probably don't have a relative strength that bears much consideration.  That changes as a three-loss team wins to stay at three losses while others above them may fall.  However, if the season ended today, Whitewater's relative strength wouldn't even be looked at by the Selection Committee at a 5-3 record for good reasons.  Namely, it SHOULDN'T be considered -- if we're going to sit here and parse whether or not a three-loss team is better than an undefeated or reasonably strong one-loss team to that degree, then what we're really doing is assessing history in both polling and prior seasons' victories more than we're assessing the current state of affairs, in my honest opinion.  I understand that the polls exist to take robotic ranking out of the equation, but honestly, Pools B and C exist for the same reason even if implemented in a more specific manner by the NCAA.

[Bombers798891]

However, if the season ended today, Whitewater's relative strength wouldn't even be looked at by the Selection Committee at a 5-3 record for good reasons.  Namely, it SHOULDN'T be considered -- if we're going to sit here and parse whether or not a three-loss team is better than an undefeated or reasonably strong one-loss team to that degree, then what we're really doing is assessing history in both polling and prior seasons' victories more than we're assessing the current state of affairs, in my honest opinion. 

This. Frank is dead on. Whitewater's lofty initial ranking, while deserved based on their incredible past success, is why they're still getting votes. Since when does one good win put a 5-3 team in the "also receiving votes" category?

Ithaca's 5-3, has a win that's as good as Whitewater's best, (at least according to the teams' current rankings in the D3 poll) and while they don't have a loss to a team as good as Oshkosh, also don't have one to a team that's nearly as bad as Stevens Point. Both teams play in one of the top conferences in D3. Ithaca's SOS is 35th, Whitewater's is 110th.

Does anyone consider the Bombers a top 25 team? *Listens to silence*. I would put IC's 2012 resume up against Whitewater's

Of course, IC is coming off a bad season, and Whitewater's coming off a three-peat. So Whitewater's ranked ahead. Which is fine, if that's how voters want to look at it. But as Frank said, that's less an assessment of how things are currently and more of a nod to past history.

(And no, this is not me being an Ithaca homer. I have called out the Bombers when I feel they have been overrated in the polls. Also note that this post requires me to agree with Frank, and if you've been around these boards, you know how much I hate to agree with that guy  )

[Pat Coleman]

I'm not saying Salve could beat them, but let's just consider that Bridgewater State will receive consideration before UWW does for Pool C -- and Bridgewater State may not make it to the NEFC Championship Game.  There is a LOT more parity across the Division right now than what you're assuming -- past the Top 10 is a complete jumble.

How the NCAA chooses to make its at-large decisions is not at all relevant to the Top 25.

Agreed there is parity beyond the Top 10, which is exactly how a three-loss Whitewater merits Top 25 votes.

Yes and no, Guru.  Pool C and Pool B (to the degree it exists) collectively are an effort to pick out "the best of the rest" in the Division.  It was pretty much the grand compromise to allow the AQ system to work across most sports in the Division.  What you're disagreeing with here is whether or not the MODEL used by the NCAA is an accurate assessment of relative strength. 

Which it's not, and your attempt to obfuscate here is ... well, an attempt to obfuscate. Nobody in this room thinks Bridgewater State is in a conversation of best teams by a standard measurement. And I don't need a lecture on the virtues of the NCAA's system, do I?

On UWW: Agreed one win isn't much but it was more than was mentioned, so I figured I should at least point it out for accuracy's sake.

[SUADC]

With the regional rankings coming out tomorrow or the next day, I know many of us are thinking and talking about who should be the top seeds, just looking at SOS compared to the D3 poll (as of today) for teams that are undefeated, here is a break down of ranking:

SOS                                        D3 Poll                                   Avg.
1. Linfield (1)                            MUC (1)                                  UMHB (T1)
2. UMHB (15)                            UMHB (2)                                Linfield (T1)
3. UW-O (19)                            Linfield (3)                              UW-O (3)
4. Concordia-Chicago (34)           UST (4)                                  MUC (4)
5. Johns Hopkins (41)                 UW-O (6)                                UST (5)
6. Hobart (48)                           Hobart (9)                              Hobart (6)
7. UST (64)                              Widener (11)                           Johns Hopkins (7) 
8. Coe (87)                              Johns Hopkins (13)                    Concordia (Ill.) (8)
9. MUC (134)                            Coe (14)                                 Widener (9)
10. Widener (178)                     Waynesburg (22)                      Coe (10)
11. Waynesburg (226)               Concordia (Ill.) (NR)                   Waynesburg (11)

If you look at the average (as of today), I wouldn't be surprise if it played out this way. UMHB (#1 South Seed), Linfield (#1 West Seed), UW-O (#1 North Seed), and MUC (#1 East Seed). IMHO, I believe it would be a toss up between UMHB and Linfield on who receives the #1 Overall seed. Also, I know the D3 poll has nothing to do with the seeding, but I think it gives a good inclination of rankings without going into the other numbers.

[AUKaz00]

I agree with those that do not believe UWW should be a top 25 team on anyone's ballot at this point. Prestige is doing a LOT with this. It is similar to an argument I see on another board of Wheaton being ranked ahead of a team they beat and have one more loss than. Wheaton's name recognition in large part has garnered them being ahead of the other school.

While it's a good top 25 poll, there are definitely some big curiosities.

Similar with Alfred being ranked behind St. John Fisher last week.

but doesnt AU's loss this week 'vindicate' those that apparently saw past the H2H game and ranked SJF ahead of them?  Or is the poll just a week to week guessing game based on that Saterday's results?

I'm not sure they were vindicated by anything that occurred.  Alfred clearly is now below Fisher due to all those 1st quarter injuries, but at the time (and still now) Alfred had better results against common opponents and the H2H win.  One who would be vindicated would have been a voter who placed Utica higher than Alfred or Fisher.

[SUADC]

With the cancellations and re-scheduling of games around the east. Do you think the games that got re-scheduled and the games that was cancelled completely was dictated by each teams playoff chances? It appears that the Widener game was cancelled because win or lose in week 11, they still are a playoff team and Cortland has already clinched, so those games is not worth the hassel of re-scheduling. However, the Rowan vs. Kean game definitely has playoff implications on the line.

[Bombers798891]

With the cancellations and re-scheduling of games around the east. Do you think the games that got re-scheduled and the games that was cancelled completely was dictated by each teams playoff chances? It appears that the Widener game was cancelled because win or lose in week 11, they still are a playoff team and Cortland has already clinched, so those games is not worth the hassel of re-scheduling. However, the Rowan vs. Kean game definitely has playoff implications on the line.

I'm sure something close to what you're describing took place. Major League Baseball will sometimes do the same thing with late-season rain outs.

[AUKaz00]

Week 10 Fan Poll 

Team	Record	Points	Last Rating	Next Week
1   Hobart( 5 )	9-0	50	1	vs. Rochester
2   Widener	8-0	42	2	vs. #7 Delaware Valley
3   Salisbury	7-2	39	4	at Frostburg State
4   Cortland State	7-1	38	3	vs. #T9 Ithaca
5   Rowan	6-2	31	5	at TCNJ
6   Lycoming	7-2	25	6	at Misericordia
7   Delaware Valley	7-2	20	7	at #2 Widener
T9  Alfred	5-3	6	NR	at Hartwick
T9  Ithaca	6-3	6	NR	at #4 Cortland State
T9  Lebanon Valley	6-3	6	NR	vs. Albright

Dropped Out:
RPI
St. John Fisher
Utica


Also Receiving votes:               
Salve Regina 5
St. John Fisher 2
Utica 2
Kean 1
Trinity 1
Union 1
                     
            
Voting Distribution:            
Hobart (1,1,1,1,1)
Widener (3,4,2,2,2)
Salisbury (2,3,3,5,3)
Cortland State (4,2,4,3,4)
Rowan (5,5,5,4,5)
Lycoming(6,6,6,6,6)
Delaware Valley (7,7,7,7,7)
Alfred (9,NR,NR,8,10)
Ithaca (NR,9,NR,10,8)
Lebanon Valley (8,8,NR,NR,NR)
Salve Regina (NR,NR,8,NR,9)
St. John Fisher (NR,NR,NR,9,NR)
Utica (NR,NR,9,NR,NR)
Kean (NR,NR,10,NR,NR)
Trinity (10,NR,NR,NR,NR)
Union (NR,10,NR,NR,NR)


Key Matchups:
#7 Delaware Valley at #2 Widener
#T9 Ithaca at #4 Cortland State

[AUPepBand]

Week 10 Fan Poll 

Team	Record	Points	Last Rating	Next Week
1   Hobart( 5 )	9-0	50	1	vs. Rochester
2   Widener	8-0	42	2	vs. #7 Delaware Valley
3   Salisbury	7-2	39	4	at Frostburg State
4   Cortland State	7-1	38	3	vs. #T9 Ithaca
5   Rowan	6-2	31	5	at TCNJ
6   Lycoming	7-2	25	6	at Misericordia
7   Delaware Valley	7-2	20	7	at #2 Widener
T9  Alfred	5-3	6	NR	at Hartwick
T9  Ithaca	6-3	6	NR	at #4 Cortland State
T9  Lebanon Valley	6-3	6	NR	vs. Albright

Dropped Out:
RPI
St. John Fisher
Utica


Also Receiving votes:               
Salve Regina 5
St. John Fisher 2
Utica 2
Kean 1
Trinity 1
Union 1
                     
            
Voting Distribution:            
Hobart (1,1,1,1,1)
Widener (3,4,2,2,2)
Salisbury (2,3,3,5,3)
Cortland State (4,2,4,3,4)
Rowan (5,5,5,4,5)
Lycoming(6,6,6,6,6)
Delaware Valley (7,7,7,7,7)
Alfred (9,NR,NR,8,10)
Ithaca (NR,9,NR,10,8)
Lebanon Valley (8,8,NR,NR,NR)
Salve Regina (NR,NR,8,NR,9)
St. John Fisher (NR,NR,NR,9,NR)
Utica (NR,NR,9,NR,NR)
Kean (NR,NR,10,NR,NR)
Trinity (10,NR,NR,NR,NR)
Union (NR,10,NR,NR,NR)


Key Matchups:
#7 Delaware Valley at #2 Widener
#T9 Ithaca at #4 Cortland State

Pep noted that in a recent listing of ECAC bowl-eligible teams that Bridgewater State (9-1) was labeled as a prospective NCAA Pool C pick. Pep would hope that the NCAA Selection Committee, like the five pollsters voting in this East Region Fan Poll, would see that the Bears, while completing a highly successful 2012 season, including a 21-17 win over Springfield (6-3), would likely struggle against most of the teams making the ERFP Top 10. The Bears' 2012 team may be better than their 2011 squad, but AU, after spotting them a 10-0 lead, manhandled them at Bridgewater last year, 41-10 in an ECAC Bowl game. Just Pep's two cents.

On Saxon Warriors!

[Frank Rossi]

Pep -

I wrote about this in the General Boards' Pool C 2012 PP.  My first message was directed toward Keith:

"I remember pointing out Bridgewater State to you last weekend on "In the HuddLLe" -- I really think there are two things that make it different from the Endicott scenario last year:

1) The Springfield win was a lot better than the OOC wins Endicott had in 2011.  For subjective strength reasons, this helps Bridgewater; and

2) There are just a lot less one-loss teams on the board this year.  How many times can the Committee pass over a one-loss team when no other one-loss teams exist on the board?  Bridgewater State is likely the second East team on the board.  That means after Rowan is the 1st or 2nd Pool C team picked (assuming a win next week), Bridgewater State will be sitting there for 5 or 6 picks.

That said, this could cause a real chaotic problem in bracketing.  Mount Union is assumed to be a #1 seed atop the East-centric bracket.  Yet, if the NEFC winner, the ECFC winner and Bridgewater State are 6, 7 and 8 in the bracket, Mount Union would be forced to face #5 in the bracket in the First Round to avoid a flight.  The New England teams are all 500+ miles away, and the more teams we see from New England, the uglier the matchups will look in terms of quality teams being ousted in the first round at the hands of the Mount Unions of the fields.  I think the Committee is going to be pained in choosing Bridgewater State, knowing the geographic Twister the pick could cause.  However, I believe it becomes unavoidable under the projected status of the board currently (which can only get better from Bridgewater State in the clubhouse right now at 9-1)."

When someone pointed out that the order last week and likely this week would be Rowan, Lyco, Bridgewater, I wrote:

"Remember that Lyco plays a winless team this week.  That means its SOS will likely plunge below Bridgewater State, whose OOWP will rise based on the NEFC Championship game most likely.  Subjectivity and games vs. RRO would be the only counterbalance for the Lyco as #2 at-large scenario even if this week's numbers put Lyco above Bridgewater State again.  It's another case of football's SOS numbers being too fluid due to lack of sample size, making the ordering in the East a tough game to guess."

Long story short, Bridgewater is in a much better position than Endicott was last year in the same basic NEFC 9-1 shoes.  Don't discount their chances.

[SUADC]

With some interesting games being played in the East and if everthing goes bananas, Salisbury can still have a home game.

[dlippiel]

Looking at everything and trying to be as objective as possible, Bridgewater has no buisness getting in. The win over Springfield early, although impressive in regards to history, really isn't impressive considering the Pride didn't find any identity until recently. Jason Marrero has grown ten fold. Kid can throw and is shifty as ****. Defense is still not good but if those two teams play again Springfield runs all over them big time. On top of this dlip does not feel they could do anything against Rowan or any other 2 loss team from another conference (aside from any in the ECFC).