East Region Fan Poll

[Bombers798891]

I'd be really interested in other folks take on this question - the failure of the Eqst to compete at the very top of D3.  It's not always been that way - the East used to have a Stagg Bowl participant most years during the 80s and 90s before dropping off a cliff in 1999. I had mostly assumed it came down to recruiting competition and program density - for example, NY has something like 18 and Mass 24 programs, versus 11 in Ohio and 5 in Wisconsin.  But are there other factors?  Admissions? Facilities?

I think it's density, mostly. In the 80s, you had Fisher as a club team, Buff state just emerging from club status, no Hartwick, no Utica, no Morrisville. The E8 as it exists today was simply not there. The NE programs have really committed to the sport as well.

[wally_wabash]

Brockport needs to really roll over some E8 teams to get their own NCAA bracket....which I think would be great

This is interesting.  My first wild guess at four top seeds...Mount Union and UMHB are total no-brainers.  UW-O also probably in there if they run the table (definitely not a done deal).  But then some of the other usual suspects have lost games.  St. Thomas lost.  Linfield lost.  Hopkins has lost.  There's definitely opportunity. 

So undefeated Brockport/Alfred could be at the top of a region.  Delaware Valley has made a strong case so far (and if Wesley runs out the NJAC, that chip is very strong for the Aggies).  North Central is certainly in the conversation.  Wartburg has an interesting profile.  W&J is in play (but probably not CWRU).  There are a lot of reasonable ways to go regarding a fourth #1 seed right now. 

[Bombers798891]

Brockport seems a better bet

IC's a wash, and they'll play each other, likely when undefeated.

Brockport's other two games—Hobart and St. Lawrence—are better than Alfred's RPI/Rochester. Hobart already stomped RPI, who is looking at 7-3 at best if they lose to Alfred.

Neither St. Lawrence or Rochester is having a good year, but their respective performance against IC (24-13 vs. 46-6) and recent history makes me think St. Lawrence is better.

[dlippiel]

dlip thinks it has to do with the amount of DIII teams in the state/East Region, the low quality of play and student interest in NY and NE High School Football compared to other sports, and also sprinkle a tad of high tuition and high academic standards of many NY/NE schools (although dlip believes this plays only a small part) and you have a watered down DIII East Region. Too many ****ing schools.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'd be really interested in other folks take on this question - the failure of the Eqst to compete at the very top of D3.  It's not always been that way - the East used to have a Stagg Bowl participant most years during the 80s and 90s before dropping off a cliff in 1999. I had mostly assumed it came down to recruiting competition and program density - for example, NY has something like 18 and Mass 24 programs, versus 11 in Ohio and 5 in Wisconsin. But are there other factors?  Admissions? Facilities?

Not even remotely close.  Ohio has 21 D3 football schools; Wisconsin has 17.  Compared with state populations, Wisconsin has greater 'program density' than Mass, and vastly greater than NY.

[Bartman]

I did about a half hour of research and found that HS football participation(per million in state population) is almost twice as much in the Midwest(including Ohio, Wisconsin,Michigan,Illinois,Iowa,Minnesota as a sample) versus the East(including Maine,NH, VT,Mass, RI,CT,NY,NJ and PA). There were 201,000 HS players with population of 49MM in Midwest or a participation rate of 4,102 per million versus the East with 125,000 players and a population of 55MM for a participation rate of 2,272 per million. Wisconsin is about 5,000 per million .....while Texas has 165,359 players with a population of 26.5MM for a participation rate of 6,239(geez you wonder why they love football in Texas)....I did not look at Delaware and the South, but I think it is  close to the Midwest participation rate.....The bottom line is the football participation rate is much lower in the East.....this is not a fully vetted research project , but it yields some interesting data.

[Pat Coleman]

Age of the population probably is an unmentioned factor as well.

[gordonmann]

Does that comparison look different once you add in D2 programs, NAIA programs and D-1 FCS programs? What if you compare programs per square mile instead of people? My guess is that geography means as much or more than how many people live in an area. I genuinely don't know though.

I also think New York City skews the population comparison (as it does almost every comparison). That's an enormous boost to the population with a relatively small percentage of people who play D3 football. If you compared Wisconsin with Upstate New York (so not NYC or the major counties around it), how would that look?

My personal theory is that the combination of football as a unique undertaking and Division III make it harder to create a elite program than in other team sports. So it's very, very hard for schools in the East to do that, just like it is for schools in most parts of the country

Football as a sport requires many more resources than any other sport. You need more players, particularly for depth along the offensive and defensive line and talent on special teams, more coaches, more money for facilities and recruiting budgets, etc. As a result, it's much harder to build a program that will compete at the highest level in football than a sport like basketball where one stellar player can elevate an entire program and cancel out institutional disadvantages. Becoming good at football takes tremendous commitment from the school, including an at least implicit decision not to make the same investment in other areas. To be sure it also takes tremendous talent from the coaches and the early waves of recruits. Guys like Larry Kehres or Glenn Caruso are remarkably talented. And a little luck doesn't hurt too. If you moved the entire Mary Hardin-Baylor program to, say, Indiana or Southern California, I don't know if they have the same success. But they are in Texas where high school football produces a different quality of player.

Put together all these factors and it's incredibly hard to build a program that comes close to challenging those places that already have those programmatic advantages in place. And, because this isn't Division I where the stakes associated with winning are so obvious to boosters, it's hard to make a case to build an elite program where one doesn't already exist.

And then add the special case that is Mount Union to the mix. To my knowledge, they don't have another point of comparison for the sustained level of overpowering excellence in collegiate team sports (so not individual sports where teams scores are kept like Kenyon swimming, Kalamazoo tennis, Trinity squash or whatever). I don't know of any team that has so utterly dominated its level for as long as they have, with no end in sight.

It used to bother me that the East region schools didn't compete well in the national quarterfinals and were routinely cannon fodder for the elite few.  It doesn't any more. Programs like Del Val, Brockport, Alfred or whomever can have great seasons this year. Getting obliterated in the national quarterfinals, if that happens ,won't take away from the program's achievements any more than retiring without a stock portfolio that surpasses Warren Buffet takes away from a person's professional achievement.

It's okay to just enjoy the ride, even if you have a very good idea where it's going to end.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Beautifully said, Gordon.  I think you have encapsulated the D3 philosophy perfectly.  And to the crypto-Neanderthals: no, that is not "participation ribbons for everyone".

Back when the D3 basketball FF still had a consolation game, I was very proud that IWU NEVER finished fourth.  Coach Bridges admitted that he hated playing that game, but they nevertheless played it to win!

[UfanBill]

[quote author=gordonmann

"I also think New York City skews the population comparison"

As a lifetime Upstate New York resident I believe I'm qualified to comment on this. The New York City metropolitan area, roughly NYC, Westchester County and Long Island, has more than half the state's total population and ONLY two D3 football programs...US Merchant Marine Academy and SUNY Maritime. The remaining D3 programs, 15 total are upstate mostly in two leagues, the Empire 8 (8 teams) the Liberty League(6) and one member of NESCAC

[Bombers798891]

Not even remotely close.  Ohio has 21 D3 football schools; Wisconsin has 17.  Compared with state populations, Wisconsin has greater 'program density' than Mass, and vastly greater than NY.

Of course, Wisconsin has 0 FCS/D-II schools, compared to 10 from NY

[Bartman]

I am interested in the conversation, so I will feed a little more data. The Middle Region(from my state sample above) has 205,000 HS players(2013 survey) and 87 D3 programs and the East has 125,000 players and 88 D3 programs. Of course there are many other factors like net tuition cost, in state tuition, and academic/admissions factors and competition from D1AA or D2. But at the end of the day those 88 Eastern programs have to deal with a smaller recruiting base than the Middle Region...... and need to keep the top talent from going out of region or attract players from outside of the East(Hobart has 2 great  examples....Sweeney QB from Geneva, NY and Shed WR from West Palm,Florida )

[Bombers798891]

Not even remotely close.  Ohio has 21 D3 football schools; Wisconsin has 17.  Compared with state populations, Wisconsin has greater 'program density' than Mass, and vastly greater than NY.

You're smarter than this, Ypsi. College football teams do not draw players from state populations. They draw them from high school football teams. We can find the 11-man* numbers right here.

http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/PDF/2016-17_Participation_Survey_Results.pdf


*Let's not play the gotcha game with some kid who played 8 man or who never played before college

Wisconsin had 25,206 players. For the 17 D-III schools, plus Wisconsin-Madison, that's 18 teams. 1 team for every 1,400 players
New York had 31,470 players. For the 18 D-III schools, plus 3 FBS, 8 FCS, and 2 DII, that's 31 teams. 1 team for every 1,015 players

Now, this doesn't get into anything about the quality of said players. But there's something else being shown in this data. If you're a HS football player in Wisconsin, your in-state options are the Badgers or a D-III school. But there's a massive gulf between the talent level of a typical D-III player and someone who can stay on the roster of an elite FBS program. All these players would have other options in NY if they wanted to stay in state. Kids in Wisconsin don't.

[Bartman]

Not even remotely close.  Ohio has 21 D3 football schools; Wisconsin has 17.  Compared with state populations, Wisconsin has greater 'program density' than Mass, and vastly greater than NY.

You're smarter than this, Ypsi. College football teams do not draw players from state populations. They draw them from high school football teams. We can find the 11-man* numbers right here.

http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatistics/PDF/2016-17_Participation_Survey_Results.pdf


*Let's not play the gotcha game with some kid who played 8 man or who never played before college

Wisconsin had 25,206 players. For the 17 D-III schools, plus Wisconsin-Madison, that's 18 teams. 1 team for every 1,400 players
New York had 31,470 players. For the 18 D-III schools, plus 3 FBS, 8 FCS, and 2 DII, that's 31 teams. 1 team for every 1,015 players

Now, this doesn't get into anything about the quality of said players. But there's something else being shown in this data. If you're a HS football player in Wisconsin, your in-state options are the Badgers or a D-III school. But there's a massive gulf between the talent level of a typical D-III player and someone who can stay on the roster of an elite FBS program. All these players would have other options in NY if they wanted to stay in state. Kids in Wisconsin don't.

Bombers,   Thanks for increasing the quality of the data by citing the most up to date survey that I used from 2013(I told you I only did it in a half hour)......By the way, it is interesting to note that HS Football participation is down from 2013 to 2016 by about 3% , while overall sports participation is up about 2% nationally(injury concerns, funding?). NYS football participation is down about 10% from 2013 to 2016. As Bombers points out, the other options for top D3 players  that want to stay in NY are pretty rich because I know they lose some decent top talent to the 8 FCS and 2 D2 schools where in Wisconsin those  kids are probably playing in their great D3 system.

[Bombers798891]

As Bombers points out, the other options for top D3 players  that want to stay in NY are pretty rich because I know they lose some decent top talent to the 8 FCS and 2 D2 schools where in Wisconsin those  kids are probably playing in their great D3 system.

I mean, we'd need to hear from coaches and players on this, but I think you're right: At least some of the top players on these great WIAC schools are probably D-II or FCS caliber players who can't make it on the Badgers (not that there's anything wrong with that) and want to stay in state. Wasn't one of Whitewater's great backs a transfer from Madison?

I'd also be curious to hear the D-III coaches in NY talk about how often they lose a recruit to one of the in-state D-II/FCS schools.