East Region Fan Poll

[Knightstalker]

Win's over Fitchburg St., Kings & Utica coupled with a MonkeyStomping at the hands of Alfred do not warrant Top 10 consideration IMO.

Plus Muhlenburg 'aint that bad....

Opened the season with 14-12 loss to Wilkes.
Gettysburg is a bad loss.
Hopkins is 4-1 with their only loss in the season opener to Delaware Valley.

Wilkes, Union & Hopkins in 3 of first 4 games.....quite a gauntlet.

Either does losing to UR but I still have RPI in my top 10 (at number 10)...

Which is a worse loss:

• 3-1 RPI losing at home to (now) 1-3 UofR by a score of 16-10;
• 3-1 Union losing at (now) 1-3 Muhlenberg by a score of 17-7;  
• 3-1 Ithaca losing at (now) 3-1 Union by a score of 24-21: or
• 1-3 Muhlenberg losing at (now) 1-4 Gettysburg by a score of 20-3?

I dont think this is much of a question.  I would say 'What are the losses ranked?'(1 being the worst)


1.  3-1 RPI losing at home to (now) 1-3 UofR by a score of 16-10; [/li][/list]







2.  3-1 Union losing at (now) 1-3 Muhlenberg by a score of 17-7
3.  1-3 Muhlenberg losing at (now) 1-4 Gettysburg by a score of 20-3
4.  3-1 Ithaca losing at (now) 3-1 Union by a score of 24-21

I kind of agree with LD.  Looking at worst loss is just a part of the overall picture.

I agree with LD also, just based on the fact RPI lost at home, all the other losses were on the road.

[lewdogg11]

To RPI's benefit, they can still win the LL, make the NCAA's and lose in the first round, OR

go 6-3 or 7-2, go to the ECACs, and beat Salve Regina.

Ho-hum...heard this all before.

[redswarm81]

Win's over Fitchburg St., Kings & Utica coupled with a MonkeyStomping at the hands of Alfred do not warrant Top 10 consideration IMO.

Plus Muhlenburg 'aint that bad....

Opened the season with 14-12 loss to Wilkes.
Gettysburg is a bad loss.
Hopkins is 4-1 with their only loss in the season opener to Delaware Valley.

Wilkes, Union & Hopkins in 3 of first 4 games.....quite a gauntlet.

Either does losing to UR but I still have RPI in my top 10 (at number 10)...

Which is a worse loss:

• 3-1 RPI losing at home to (now) 1-3 UofR by a score of 16-10;
• 3-1 Union losing at (now) 1-3 Muhlenberg by a score of 17-7;  
• 3-1 Ithaca losing at (now) 3-1 Union by a score of 24-21: or
• 1-3 Muhlenberg losing at (now) 1-4 Gettysburg by a score of 20-3?

I would say 'What are the losses ranked?'(1 being the worst)

1.  3-1 RPI losing at home to (now) 1-3 UofR by a score of 16-10;
2.  3-1 Union losing at (now) 1-3 Muhlenberg by a score of 17-7
3.  1-3 Muhlenberg losing at (now) 1-4 Gettysburg by a score of 20-3
4.  3-1 Ithaca losing at (now) 3-1 Union by a score of 24-21

I kind of agree with LD.  Looking at worst loss is just a part of the overall picture.

Wow, really? I'd have figured Muhlenberg's 17 point loss to Gettysburg was the runaway worst.

UofR's 3 losses are to 4-0 Case Western, 3-1 Union, and 2-2* St. John Fisher.  It seems to me that UofR's 1-3 record is more impressive than Muhlenberg's 1-3 record.  But Gettysburg hasn't lost to any cupcakes either.

Am I detecting some sentiment that rewards losses to tough teams more than it rewards wins over teams with "questionable pedigree?"

[dlippiel]

Win's over Fitchburg St., Kings & Utica coupled with a MonkeyStomping at the hands of Alfred do not warrant Top 10 consideration IMO.

Plus Muhlenburg 'aint that bad....

Opened the season with 14-12 loss to Wilkes.
Gettysburg is a bad loss.
Hopkins is 4-1 with their only loss in the season opener to Delaware Valley.

Wilkes, Union & Hopkins in 3 of first 4 games.....quite a gauntlet.

Ill just put Plymouth St in next week.

Not a day goes by where dlip does not feel Dogg has the best post of the mother****in day! +k Oh by the way Framingham State (2-0) gets the nod over Plymouth State as new #1 in the ERFP.

[dlippiel]

dlip's poll looks like this:

1) Alfred
2) Albright
3) Del Val
4) Rowan
5) Cortland
6) Wilkes
7) Union
8) Ithaca
9) Kean
10) RPI

Now dlip has Rowan ahead of Cortland because of depth and QB injuries even though Rowan lost the head to head. Kean is knocking on the door at #9 but needs to show dlip more, dlip still believes RPI will bounce back (with Herman in the line-up), the Bombers have yet to really impress dlip, hence behind Union who they lost to head to head. Wilkes, still a very good squad but dropping as a result of being handeled by Albright. dlip was quite high on Wilkes hence Albright jumping to #2 with the solid W. Del Val definitely in dlip's top three with a solid W againt Leb Val and their only loss coming at the hands of #5 Wesley. All in all dlip tries to take into account as many variables as possible when ranking and comparing teams in our great region. dlip loves this ****!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Re: taking into account injured players

May I suggest a 'solution'?

Since the ideal is to assess the strength of teams as they currently stand, if an injured player returns, games lost during his absence can reasonably be discounted somewhat - that was not 'today's' team.  If a player is lost for the season, don't discount because THAT is now the team.  Sound reasonable?

[That doesn't diminish the possibility of bemoaning 'what if' - a couple of years ago Wheaton (IL) had a team that I honestly thought might knock off Mt. Union.  They lost so many top players during the season they did not make the playoffs.  (This is not sour grapes; my team, IWU, tied for the CCIW title by beating Wheaton in the final game.  To be honest, I don't think we could have stayed within 3 TDs of a healthy Wheaton.  At that point, IWU was better; if some or all players for the Thunder had returned, I would have had to rank them higher.)]

[pg04]

Wow!  Come back from work and what interesting discussion!  I'm glad so many people are into this and discussing.  This was my inital intent on creating this, as before there didn't seem to be a place for complete east region discussion. 

This is actually the first week I've had Alfred at number 1 this season.  In fact my number one has lost each week I think... .   

[maxpower]

Also sorry I missed a great discussion.... I think this post was the best:

A poll should "accurately" predict the outcome of a hypothetical game between differently ranked opponents,

• despite the outcome of an actual contest between those same differently ranked opponents;

The rest of it was sarcastic, but this is a great litmus. To use Cortland and Kean as an example, a poll might be a conglomerate of opinions about whether the game was a fluke.

But I think a pollster must be very stingy with how they decide whether a loss was a fluke. If Kean throws a terrible pass at the last second that bounces off a helmet and Brandon Stokely takes it in for a touchdown to win by 1 or 2, that looks like a fluke loss..... but if C-State is so much better, why did they only win by 6 with Kean on the field at the end?

Also, it has to do with how close you think the teams are. For instance, no one seems to think Union should be ranked over Ithaca, despite the outcome of that game. I can understand having C-State at 3 and Kean at 8 if you just think Cortland is that much better (or, in RS's words, if you think another game between the two would decidedly go to Cortland). What I would have trouble understanding is having, say, C-State at 4 and Kean at 5. If they would play each other that close, in your estimation, what reason do you have to go with the team that lost? Even a high-profile injury doesn't totally account for it.

Sorry for the rambling....

['gro]

To RPI's benefit, they can still win the LL, make the NCAA's and lose in the first round, OR

go 6-3 or 7-2, go to the ECACs, and beat Salve Regina.

Ho-hum...heard this all before.

Oh you went there. I must say the playoff loss to TCNJ (at home) was a huge blow to the program. I'll give them a pass for the Rowan game in 99 and that's it. The other 2 first round exits are just embarrassing.

On the flip side, I must be the only one that thinks that ECAC wins matter. RPI has beaten some previously "Good" teams in the ECAC's, most of them on the road.

So to recap
NCAA's - lose at home
ECAC's - win on the road

[redswarm81]

Also sorry I missed a great discussion.... I think this post was the best:

A poll should "accurately" predict the outcome of a hypothetical game between differently ranked opponents,

• despite the outcome of an actual contest between those same differently ranked opponents;

The rest of it was sarcastic, but this is a great litmus. To use Cortland and Kean as an example, a poll might be a conglomerate of opinions about whether the game was a fluke.

Sorry for the rambling....

Actually, the quoted part was supposed to be sarcastic too.

The term "accurately" was intended in jest, since (e.g., in the case of Kean-Cortland) the "accurately" predicted outcome is the opposite of the actual outcome.  I don't know how to define the word "accurately" so that it makes any sense in that formulation.

[dlippiel]

To RPI's benefit, they can still win the LL, make the NCAA's and lose in the first round, OR

go 6-3 or 7-2, go to the ECACs, and beat Salve Regina.

Ho-hum...heard this all before.

Oh you went there. I must say the playoff loss to TCNJ (at home) was a huge blow to the program. I'll give them a pass for the Rowan game in 99 and that's it. The other 2 first round exits are just embarrassing.

On the flip side, I must be the only one that thinks that ECAC wins matter. RPI has beaten some previously "Good" teams in the ECAC's, most of them on the road.

So to recap
NCAA's - lose at home
ECAC's - win on the road

dlip remembers that RPI loss to TCNJ. SRT almost came through the computer and kicked dlips little ass for his comments regarding the Engineers after that one. It was then and there dlip learned about how the great LLPP roles and when one makes stupid ****ing posts they will be hammered for it. Since dlip has made many stupid posts but all falling well within the confines of the great LLPP ideals, morals?, and unsaid regulations. In all seriousness it seems to dlip that many of us, since RPI's semi-final run, have been waiting for RPI to break out and get "national" on our assess. For some reason it has not happened. dlip can understand Dogg and gro's frustrations. dlip has many of the same frustrations with his Dutch. dlip sits here wondering if any of our LL and/or East region teams will get ****in "national" again?

[redswarm81]

To RPI's benefit, they can still win the LL, make the NCAA's and lose in the first round, OR

go 6-3 or 7-2, go to the ECACs, and beat Salve Regina.

Ho-hum...heard this all before.

Oh you went there. I must say the playoff loss to TCNJ (at home) was a huge blow to the program. I'll give them a pass for the Rowan game in 99 and that's it. The other 2 first round exits are just embarrassing.

On the flip side, I must be the only one that thinks that ECAC wins matter. RPI has beaten some previously "Good" teams in the ECAC's, most of them on the road.

So to recap
NCAA's - lose at home
ECAC's - win on the road

There actually is somebody else who thinks that ECAC wins matter.

But, as everyone knows, every ECAC winning team (except RPI) has confessed that it didn't really want to win.

[maxpower]

Also sorry I missed a great discussion.... I think this post was the best:

A poll should "accurately" predict the outcome of a hypothetical game between differently ranked opponents,

• despite the outcome of an actual contest between those same differently ranked opponents;

The rest of it was sarcastic, but this is a great litmus. To use Cortland and Kean as an example, a poll might be a conglomerate of opinions about whether the game was a fluke.

Sorry for the rambling....

Actually, the quoted part was supposed to be sarcastic too.

The term "accurately" was intended in jest, since (e.g., in the case of Kean-Cortland) the "accurately" predicted outcome is the opposite of the actual outcome.  I don't know how to define the word "accurately" so that it makes any sense in that formulation.

Gotcha... i guess I thought that "accurately" in quotes meant "you know, not that this is actually possible."

[Knightstalker]

Kean didn't really beat Cortland, in other words.  Did Kean really beat Trenton St. TCNJ?

Kean did beat Cortland, but they beat Cortland without their best ****in player. That means something and should be accounted for regarding a teams actual strength vs their strength without their star player. Maybe dlip took it into consideration too much, point taken, but it deserved consideration none the less. And if one feels a team is at the same strength when they are playing without their star player than they are not dipping both ****in oars into the water when trying to paddle up stream. Hence if one were to say Rochester is clearly a better overall team than RPI without Herman, dlip would agree because that was taken care of on the field. Yet, if you came to dlip and said Rochester would have still won even if RPI had Herman, one could disagree, because they haven't beaten RPI when Herman (a 3 time LL rookie of the week) was playing. So dlip feels injuries and missing players must be accounted for, especially when those players are returning to the line-up that same year.

Not sure I agree with the arguement that head to head match ups only matters if you beat someone with all of the players.  A win is a win...everyone goes through injuries.  As bad as Wick's defense was last year in the Brockport game...Wick doesn't get a pass simply because Tomaino and the starting ILB and FS were all out by the second series of the first quarter.

If I came on here and argued that it didn't really matter because we put up 68 points...and that the 70 points shouldn't count as we had "guys out", I would get destroyed...and rightfully so.  I believe we would have won the game going away if everyone was healthy and playing all 4 quarters...and that we would have given up far fewer points as we obviously weren't that deep.  But the problem is they weren't in the game...and we gave up 70. Injuries are part of the game...and head to head match ups should count above and beyond everything else.

Again, it is not that the W does not ****in count, dlip does not recall KS, dlip, or anyone else saying that. When you are ranking teams you are reviewing SOS, W's and L's,  as well as any other factors that have to do with a teams performance, and/or lack there of. All dlip is saying (maybe KS too, dlip does not want to speak for him) is that if a key player, or players miss a game you MUST take that into account not only regarding that teams performance but also in weighing the W by the oppoisng team. dlip is baffled that this seems to be a hard ****ing concept for others to understand. If you simply rank teams by W's and L's and nothing else you are missing the bus. **** an NEFC team may be in the top five then of national polls.

KS agrees with Dlipp regarding a key player missing a game.  Yes head to head matters but is not the only criteria, if it was the poll would change completely almost every week and we would basically be using the Poll that Pep linked to.  KS also did not hit Rowan as hard for their loss to Cortland because Rowans starting QB was out that game.  With him KS thinks Rowan may be the best team in the NJAC.  Also KS did not have Kean in his top ten last week and Cortland was still high in the rankings, I am not going to drop a team down far enough to put a previously unranked team ahead based on a head to head victory two or three weeks before.  Kean got in because of the way they shut down the TCNJ offense last week, they were KS number 13 team previously.  This is the same reason Albright did not leap way up in the rankings.

Finally, plenty of people criticizing, but how many are taking the time to do a poll weekly?  KS wl always come on and defend his rankings and say where KS ranked teams.  This weeks poll shows KS picks in the second column.

I think the key though is the teams records.  In this case...the Kean/Cortland State arguement...if both teams have the same record, I don't know how you could with the team that lost the H2H match up.  If Cortland was say...6-1, and Kean was 3-3, then of course you would go with CS.  But to simply say they had a player out doesn't make sense...especially when you argue that Kean wasn't ranked high in "previous" polls...who cares...we are only in Week #4.

A: KS cares and it is week 5 plus a preseason so this is my sixth poll and previous rankings matter. 
B: If only records mattered I would have Framingham St and other NEFC teams at the top of my poll.
C: You don't throw out everything based on one game, this a cumulative process and Kean has to earn a higher spot.  My top 5 teams have been fairly consistant with their performances and that is why they are the top 5.  Kean is moving up, but has to prove more to KS. 
D: KS has previously stated that he is tougher when ranking the NJ teams to avoid any bias.  They are held to a higher standard because KS is more familiar with them and probably reads more about them than other teams.
E: As KS father used to say, Don't like it, too damn bad.

Easy KS...this is why drinking isn't promoted before noon...I don't care who you pick...you could have Norwich ranked number one an I wouldn't care.  I was just arguing why Team-A who has the same record of Team-B and beat Team-B head to head (and at Team-B's home field) should be ranked higher.

I am not even a Kean fan...but if you are going to argue that they beat CS without their best player...you could argue that Kean beat CS without their best player in Jason Gwaltney.

This is why I should start drinking before noon again, KS is a happy drunk.  Gwaltney is an rb, good rb's are a dime a dozen in the NJAC.  He wasn't around long enough to make an impact that early in the season.  I am not sure how he did individually, I have to look.  I have seen good running backs on every NJAC team in NJ and Cortland, I have seen kids that were as good as any of the DI transfers that have played in the NJAC.  A good starting QB is a different story, quite often the NJAC teams only have one good QB and a few others that are decent but not starting caliber.  It probably has to do with the roster limits, plus good QB's are coveted by every program in the country regardless of division or school size.

[Jonny Utah]

JU's top 10 this week:

1. Alfred
2. Albright
3. Del Vall
4. Kean
5. Union
6. Ithaca
7. Springfield
8. Cortland
9. SJF
10. RPI