East Region Fan Poll

[Frank Rossi]

I read the post with interest.

What are the damages that you have considered that arise from the invitation to Frostburg State and Salisbury?

Thanks.

Hey Ralph,

Sorry for the delayed response.  I had to be a lawyer or something the last few days, so D3 football had to be back-burnered a bit.

There are two damage issues I was alluding to.  First, there is the internal E8 damage done.  Based on conversations I've had with people involved with both the LL and E8, the Frostburg/Salisbury two-year agreement was a final straw that made Springfield more than happy to jump ship.  As discussed earlier by Kaz, Springfield faces odd finances compared to the rest of the E8 based on the distance travelled to all conference games, maybe with the exception of Hartwick and/or Utica.  By adding TWO Maryland teams to the mix, it required essentially a seven-hour-or-greater road trip each season.  On top of that, the addition pointed to the inability for the E8 to coax a school such as Brockport, Buffalo State or Cortland to make the move for the two years the E8 sat at six teams.  So, if you're Springfield, what do you do?  Do you sit in a conference that is costing you more and more money each year and with no level of expected continuity, or do you go to a seven-member conference that has some proximity and continuity?  I don't buy nor appreciate the "we didn't need them and they were ripe to flee anyway" argument when Springfield was one of the original seven in the Empire 8 since 2003.  This isn't like Susquehanna (which would've never been accepted into the LL if the intent to bounce after two years was at all known -- that wasn't on the table at all).  Now, by doing nothing to help solidify Springfield in the conference (like trying to find a team more in their zone, even if it were a mid-pack or weaker team) or trying to at least parse one of the two Maryland teams since they needed just one for the Pool A bid, the E8 is in trouble -- big trouble in insiders' views.

Here's the issue.  In 2012, the E8 will still have 8 (Buffalo State in, Springfield out).  In 2013, the E8 will have 6 (Frostburg and Salisbury out).  There are rumors (confirmed by people in the know a step or two removed, but what I would consider safe sources) that the LL is happy at 8 teams.  That said, if RPI goes to D1, leaving the LL at 7, one E8 school has shown repeated interest to jump to the LL.  The instability of the E8 is playing some role in that decision.  So what happens if that does happen?  The E8 moves down to 5.  They end up, at best, in Pool B, because, let's be realistic:  they couldn't find one school in two years to join until Buffalo State finally threw in the NJAC towel and decided to join.  Cortland and Brockport apparently did not jump still after repeated overtures.  How are they going to find TWO more schools to join unless they begin to redefine their own search parameters for permanent members?  Essentially, Ralph, the short-term "fix" they employed might actually lead to a deeper, longer-term disaster.  Sure, this could change, but I don't know how under the current climate -- and I really do see some odd but fitting comparisons being made between the Big East and E8 (a conference that had seemingly become stronger of late somehow still losing membership because of the instability members were witnessing and the potential for more stability and, at least in the Big East's case, revenues/less costs elsewhere).  So, in the end, this two-year agreement is potentially a problem REGARDLESS OF Salisbury's strength these two years.

However, the Salisbury strength is a second question and problem -- a foreseeable one a couple years ago.  Go back in the posts from late August/early September when I telegraphed exactly what the supposed strength of the E8 would look like by the end of this season (when I yelped about how #4 was a little odd for the E8 since there would be a related dropoff numerically -- essentially, E8 teams shed a good number of mid-to-low-end OOC opponents to make room for two new conference games).  I showed the numbers -- the win percentage for the E8 with and without Salisbury AND Frostburg is lower this year.  It was highly foreseeable that Salisbury would be a strong competitor in the E8, and we also have preached for years now that the selection process for Pool C teams artificially favors teams with less than eight/nine teams in a conference since it allows for a better inflation to SoS numbers during OOC success.  The point here is this:  the E8 lowered its chances for a Pool C bid by accepting two more teams, and accepted a team that could very well come in and win that bid for two years -- meaning potentially that one less power conference East Region team would win a bid into the playoffs for TWO years.  Sure, that requires foresight, but Salisbury has historically been a very strong team and plays an offense that has a better passing component than even Springfield (a team the E8 has had inconsistent results against for 9 seasons).  When the two-year agreement is over in 2013, no E8 team would have playoff experience if this does play out.  The overall balance of the East Region will be less, and we're already witnessing enough perception and/or realistic problems in the East necessitating the Mount Union importation.  Remember, too, that now playoff history/performance is a component in seeding as of last year -- meaning an undefeated E8 team in 2013 might still be supplanted by Mount Union at that point based on the new rule.

The only good news that seems to have come from the last couple weeks is what Pat confirmed earlier -- Salisbury will be treated in Regional Rankings as an East Region team (as Susquehanna was a few years ago).  That means that if DelVal and Hobart can run the table, the Committee may believe it makes sufficient sense to keep Salisbury in the East and not import Mount Union.  The Catch-22:  if Fisher beats Salisbury and wins the E8, we end up with Mount Union again despite the inclusion of an original E8 team.  Pick your poison, I guess.  However, this might be the give-and-take for two full seasons, followed by a real drop-off in the E8 if the core members don't make the playoffs.  Look at the Liberty League since Susquehanna won the LL in 2009.  Is it correlation or causation?  I think it's a little of both, unfortunately, and the E8 might see the same thing happen.

Yes, Ralph, it is highly based on predictions and a lot of empirical evidence that doesn't have what Ypsi would call strong statistical significance.  Yet, we've already seen some of this begin to play out (especially the Springfield domino discussion above).  We'll see how it plays out over the next year-plus.  Fasten your seatbelt.

- Frank

[Frank Rossi]

Final Results:

If Endicott were to play St. John Fisher on a neutral field today, what would the result be?
SJF by >21
14 (45.2%)
SJF by 11-21
12 (38.7%)
SJF by 1-10
1 (3.2%)
Endicott by 1-10
3 (9.7%)
Endicott by 11-21
1 (3.2%)
Endicott by >21
0 (0%)

[Charles]

Suggestion to insure fairness for the East in the event that MUC gets shipped here this year....Assemble an ALL-EAST Region squad (cue debate about who's considered an East team, the 500 mile rule and whether Endicott should be considered in the discussion) to compete against MUC in a best 2/3 series.  After they win both games 59-3, then they get a week-off before they beat Wesley in the National semis 59-4......ok?

why would you diss Endicott?

[Pat Coleman]

why would you diss Endicott?

Probably precisely to elicit that response from you.

[Charles]

why would you diss Endicott?

Probably precisely to elicit that response from you.

ugh

[softballrz]

charles, you need to read the new d3 rankings!  your gulls are 6th in the east and 24 in the nation

[pg04]

LD:  I got snickers!
Dlip:  I got Kit Kat!
AUKAZ:  Me too! 

Charles: I got a rock.

[Charles]

charles, you need to read the new d3 rankings!  your gulls are 6th in the east and 24 in the nation

you mean the Fighting Gulls are ranked higher than of Kean, Widener, Lycoming and Cortland State? No way!

[softballrz]

yes way.

East

Salisbury, 7-0, .618, 0-0.
Hobart, 5-0, .525, 1-0.
Delaware Valley, 8-0, .512, 0-0.
St. John Fisher, 6-1, .584, 0-1.
Montclair State, 6-1, .518, 1-0.
Endicott, 8-0, .527, 0-0.
Kean, 6-1, .472, 2-0*.
Widener, 7-1, .414, 1-0.
Lycoming, 6-1, .561, 0-1.
 Cortland State, 5-2, .495, 0-2.
The bubble: Rowan, TCNJ, WNEC, Lebanon Valley, Framingham State, Worcester State, SUNY-Maritime, Norwich, Utica, Albright, Salve Regina, Bridgewater State, Mass. Maritime.

Despite having yet to play its two biggest games, Salisbury's strength of schedule – second-highest of the 40 teams ATN regionally ranks – puts it atop the East. And for the fanatics who would rather not see the easternmost bracket built around Mount Union for the fifth consecutive season, the Sea Gulls play Wesley (No. 10 South) and St. John Fisher, which will only boost their SoS. Win out, and the Gulls could be a No. 1 seed.

[Frank Rossi]

No.  Actually, they're not.  That was a mock ranking by this site.  The real Committees begin that next week.

[softballrz]

frank, spin it any way you want.  those of us nefc fans will take any and all positive news we get.

[Ralph Turner]

Frank, thanks for the in-depth response to my questions.  Your answer and the background info are quite insightful.  +1! 

(I can understand that "day-jobs" do mess up one's face time with the message boards.  Thanks for keeping my request at the top of the "to-do" list.)

I sometimes wonder if the northern NY D3 fans were spoiled by the halcion days of 1999 when 9 Pool B bids were awarded.  There were only 15 Pool A conferences that year!  (There were 4 Pool C bids.)

1999 Tournament

1999 Playoffs.  (The links to the bracket projections from Oct 21, 28 and Nov 4, 10, 13 are not working.)

2000 Playoffs  (The links to the bracket projections are not working.)

[Pat Coleman]

charles, you need to read the new d3 rankings!  your gulls are 6th in the east and 24 in the nation

That's Keith's national Top 25 ballot. It's not a new ranking.

[wesleydad]

back to the original debate, when is it better to lose to one of the purple powers.  all i know is that my son was on 2 teams that lost to uwww in the semis and i never heard him bitch one time about getting his butt whoooped.  they were thrilled to have gotten that far and after the game knew they were beaten by a better team.  bottom line is you win until you lose or you win the whole thing.  i have seen enough teams in the east this year to know that they will have trouble winning past the quaterfinals.  i make this statement before i see the salisbury - wesley game this weekend.  i will be back here after the game saturday to confirm or point out that i was wrong because if salisbury can win this game in dover in the mees of wather that is supposed to occur than they are legit.  if not the east will go as they have gone the past number of years, quietly after the first or second round.

[pg04]

Between the statements on various boards, I believe that Wesleydad thinks every team sucks except Wesley.  Even the team that beat Wesley