East Region Fan Poll

[lewdogg11]

Bman, I honestly just don't know. I think this is a better end of the year guess:

1.  NJAC
2.  LL
3.  E8
4.  NJAC
5.  MAC
6.  LL
7.  E8
8.  E8
9.  MAC
10.  WNEC

[ExTartanPlayer]

Weird year.  I like it.

Agreed.  There's a fascinating fandom debate about whether it's more fun to follow a league with a few dominant teams that have a chance to make a national splash, or a league where a bunch of good-but-not-great teams will jockey for the title all year long.  In the South, the ODAC is a decent example.  Hasn't produced a real national player over the last few years but that's very much been an any-given-Saturday league over the last decade or so.

The East this year may or may not produce a national contender, but it's going to have a bunch of really fun games down the stretch as teams jockey for their respective conference titles and a Pool C chance.

[dlippiel]

I think of all the teams that are getting votes, the one that confuses me the most is Cortland.  My ranking(5) is not quite in line with what everyone else has.  I just have a hard time being confident in a team that's given up 40+ in 3 of 5 games, despite their record.  Looking at Cortland's schedule(I'm not saying this will happen), it's crazy to think that it's possible that they finish 5-5.  They probably won't but it's certainly possible.  (Buff St, Alfred, Brockport, MoVille, Ithaca)  Tough schedule there.  I think if they can maybe get the next 2 games in the W column, I would put them up to # 2.  Which leads to Rowan....

The other one that is getting big votes is Rowan, that opposite Cortland, has won in a not exciting fashion.  They've played some great defense so far, and haven't put a ton of points up.  I think a great defense gives them more staying power, but i could see them possibly losing 3 games of what is left. 

That's why it's tough to sit on the overall records at this point in the season.  Some of these 'top' teams could get bounced from the rankings altogether in a matter of weeks.

On the other end, we have Salisbury.  Salisbury is getting votes as high as 4 and to as low as no vote.  A cancelled game doesn't help their cause at this point in time, but they are a complete anomaly right now.  They lost to what looks like a good Albright team and then they've beaten 2 not so good teams.(Montclair is probably slightly above average)  Like everyone else, Salisbury could excel, only losing to Wesley, or they could lose 3-4.  We don't quite know.  Even though I don't have them ranked yet, mostly because of a lack of data, Salisbury may be the team to end up ahead of one or both of the teams above. 

Weird year.  I like it.

I know I mentioned that I saw (in person) Cortland play this year, and I wasn't overly impressed.  The problem is...who do you place ahead of them?...Rowan? (nope...not impressed), Ithaca? I saw them (get dominated at times) on Saturday by Utica...
Albright?...no way    So who?  I'm befuddled enough, that although I adjusted my pool somewhat this week, not enough to let some of the fringe 11-13 teams in...

dlip agrees that it is really a mess so far. He is also not impressed with Cortland and with that defense he agrees with Lew that losing the next 5 games wouldn't be overly shocking and/or impossible. Aside from Wesley dlip does not think we really have any team that is close to being dominant in the East and making any real noise in the tourney. dlip believes that if Wesley was not here in the east this season the east may actually be perceived as being the weakest it has ever been in comparison to the rest of the country. Utica's loss to Ohio Northern looks better after this week and Cortland's win over Heidelberg still isn't doing a whole lot for dlip even though they have been competitive with some decent teams (Ohio Northern, John Carroll). dlip looks forward to seeing how the Gulls play Rowan this week. This may tell us a bit about both teams...however how teams handle triple option teams is not always indicative of how good their D really is. It will be quite interesting to see how the remainder of the season shakes out over here.

[wesleydad]

I think of all the teams that are getting votes, the one that confuses me the most is Cortland.  My ranking(5) is not quite in line with what everyone else has.  I just have a hard time being confident in a team that's given up 40+ in 3 of 5 games, despite their record.  Looking at Cortland's schedule(I'm not saying this will happen), it's crazy to think that it's possible that they finish 5-5.  They probably won't but it's certainly possible.  (Buff St, Alfred, Brockport, MoVille, Ithaca)  Tough schedule there.  I think if they can maybe get the next 2 games in the W column, I would put them up to # 2.  Which leads to Rowan....

The other one that is getting big votes is Rowan, that opposite Cortland, has won in a not exciting fashion.  They've played some great defense so far, and haven't put a ton of points up.  I think a great defense gives them more staying power, but i could see them possibly losing 3 games of what is left. 

That's why it's tough to sit on the overall records at this point in the season.  Some of these 'top' teams could get bounced from the rankings altogether in a matter of weeks.

On the other end, we have Salisbury.  Salisbury is getting votes as high as 4 and to as low as no vote.  A cancelled game doesn't help their cause at this point in time, but they are a complete anomaly right now.  They lost to what looks like a good Albright team and then they've beaten 2 not so good teams.(Montclair is probably slightly above average)  Like everyone else, Salisbury could excel, only losing to Wesley, or they could lose 3-4.  We don't quite know.  Even though I don't have them ranked yet, mostly because of a lack of data, Salisbury may be the team to end up ahead of one or both of the teams above. 

Weird year.  I like it.

I know I mentioned that I saw (in person) Cortland play this year, and I wasn't overly impressed.  The problem is...who do you place ahead of them?...Rowan? (nope...not impressed), Ithaca? I saw them (get dominated at times) on Saturday by Utica...
Albright?...no way    So who?  I'm befuddled enough, that although I adjusted my pool somewhat this week, not enough to let some of the fringe 11-13 teams in...

dlip agrees that it is really a mess so far. He is also not impressed with Cortland and with that defense he agrees with Lew that losing the next 5 games wouldn't be overly shocking and/or impossible. Aside from Wesley dlip does not think we really have any team that is close to being dominant in the East and making any real noise in the tourney. dlip believes that if Wesley was not here in the east this season the east may actually be perceived as being the weakest it has ever been in comparison to the rest of the country. Utica's loss to Ohio Northern looks better after this week and Cortland's win over Heidelberg still isn't doing a whole lot for dlip even though they have been competitive with some decent teams (Ohio Northern, John Carroll). dlip looks forward to seeing how the Gulls play Rowan this week. This may tell us a bit about both teams...however how teams handle triple option teams is not always indicative of how good their D really is. It will be quite interesting to see how the remainder of the season shakes out over here.

I agree, it is tough each week to place teams.  Do you use h2h?  Who they played?  How good/bad they looked?  I bumped Salisbury up based on Albright.  They win that game as they should have and they could be a 2.  I also, and may travel to the game, want to see the game with Rowan this weekend.  Almost to the point where I put names in a hat and pick them for 2 - 10.

[rams1102]

I feel Rowan has a lot to prove. If they beat Salisbury I will be convinced, but I don't think it will happen.

I feel Ithaca should be #2, but that's my opinion. They will only get better.
Alfred and Utica are both playing well. I did not have Utica in this week but a win over B-Port will do it.

Watch out for Hobart, they should also continue to get better.

Cortland, Stevenson, Albright we will see. The Del Val - Stevenson game S/B good. Watch for Del Val.

[Bombers798891]

I feel Ithaca should be #2, but that's my opinion. They will only get better.

That's going to be very interesting. I'm not sold that Ithaca's offensive line can hold up and allow that to happen. They allowed eight sacks against Utica, and outside of the one run Brown broke, had a mere 27 yards in 15 carries from their running backs. Against Hobart, it was much of the same. The backs carried 26 times for 51 yards.

[D3MAFAN]

Is Cortland State the TCU or Baylor of DIII? As long as they keep winning.

[Swish3]

I look for Salisbury to walk the dog against Rowan on Saturday....

[NED3Guy]

Hobart won't get many chances to earn the right to move up in the poll.

They'll roll a down Springfield team this week, then have a weekend off before playing RPI (who it is quite possible could be a three loss team by then as they play SLU and Rochester leading up to Hobart).

If RPI beats SLU and Rochester, than the Hobart game should carry some poll weight. Otherwise, Hobart won't get the chance to impress any pollsters until they play SLU the first weekend of November.

Maybe they'll move up because they're Hobart and the poll looks strange without seeing them up high, but nothing on their 2015 resume warrants a move up anytime soon.

[Bombers798891]

Hobart won't get many chances to earn the right to move up in the poll.

They'll roll a down Springfield team this week, then have a weekend off before playing RPI (who it is quite possible could be a three loss team by then as they play SLU and Rochester leading up to Hobart).

If RPI beats SLU and Rochester, than the Hobart game should carry some poll weight. Otherwise, Hobart won't get the chance to impress any pollsters until they play SLU the first weekend of November.

Maybe they'll move up because they're Hobart and the poll looks strange without seeing them up high, but nothing on their 2015 resume warrants a move up anytime soon.

A lot will also depend on what Ithaca does. Hopefully for Hobart, this is the Bombers' annual "The game we lose before we blow Cortaca in spectacular fashion" and they right the ship. But right now, if I'm a voter, I'm wondering how Hobart can't do what Utica could

[ITH radio]

The Hobart - IC game wasn't a good depiction of what the Statesmen can do. It's a completely different game if Sweeney was healthy. If Hobart can run the table, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in a bracket playing the E8 champ in the first round like last year.

[Bombers798891]

The Hobart - IC game wasn't a good depiction of what the Statesmen can do. It's a completely different game if Sweeney was healthy. If Hobart can run the table, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in a bracket playing the E8 champ in the first round like last year.

Shane Sweeney's entire collegiate line is as follows:

35-of-55, 378 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

Sweeney might be very good. He might come back, lead the Statesman to a great season, and obliterate IC in a playoff game, (Karma!) and then have two more amazing years

But right now, there is absolutely zero data to back up this claim that the Ithaca game would be "completely" different with him under center. We have two games, one of which was good, the other of which was mediocre, against a pair of defenses that are nowhere near as good as Ithaca's. He's not proven anything at this level, certainly not enough that we should just hand wave away what happened to Hobart at Ithaca because he wasn't around.

Ithaca may have been helped by Sweeney not being there. They were more likely helped by the fact that their pass defense is, well, you know, excellent. Here's what opposing quarterbacks have done against IC since the start of last year:

260-for-514 (49%) 11 TDs/22 INTs

We've got a lot more data to back up "Hobart's offense was terrible against Ithaca because Ithaca's got a very good secondary" than we do "Hobart's offense was terrible against Ithaca because Shane Sweeney didn't play." I mean, is it possible that the Statesmen fell flat because Ithaca's defense is just better than what they face week-in/week-out?

[ITH radio]

Didn't say Hobart wins that game with Sweeney but there's no denying Tom had a horrible first half and  spotted the bombers 17 points. Both interceptions weren't thrown under a lot of pressure and were direct to the DBs with no WRs in the vicinity. The good news is he's played much better since and looked very good vs WPI who has a lot of solid athletes on their defense.

That IC-UC game Kind of reminds me of what happened to IC vs Utica. If not for that first half meltdown IC probably wins. Sometimes you just have a bad half and it costs you.

[bman]

I look for Salisbury to walk the dog against Rowan on Saturday....

I couldn't agree more...but Rowan's D is good, so it depends on how well they play the triple option...
I doubt Rowan will do much offensively...

[ExTartanPlayer]

So, about Hobart running the table...

I'm probably asking for trouble just by pointing this out, but that Springfield team who just rolled off 35 points in the second half against the Statesmen lost to WNE by 20 points in week 1...does WNE get any transitive points here?  Not saying they should suddenly go up to #4 or something ridiculous, but can we at least agree that this solidifies them as a ranking-worthy team?  Or will we see someone manage to rank Springfield ahead of WNE this week?