East Region Fan Poll

MRMIKESMITH · October 06, 2021, 12:36:19 PM

1) Delaware Valley (2) 63 (9,9,9,7,10,9,10)
2) Johns Hopkins (4) 62 (10,10,6,10,7,10,9)
3) Union (1) 46 (6,8,10,1,8,5,8)
4) Ithaca 45 (7,6,8,4,6,7,7)
5) Salisbury 42 (8,7,2,5,9,6,5)
6) Susquehanna 36 (5,3,4,9,3,8,4)
7) Cortland 33 (4,4,7,6,5,4,3)
8) Muhlenberg 24 (1,2,1,8,4,2,6)
9) Hobart 16 (3,5,3,3,2,-,-)
10) RPI 14 ( 2,1,5,-,1,3,2)

RV) Ursinus 2 ( -, -, -,2, -, -, -)
RV) Trinity 1 ( -, -, -, -, -, -, 1)
RV) Wilkes 1 ( -, -, -, -, -, 1, -)

MRMIKESMITH · October 10, 2021, 10:27:03 PM

My updated Regional Rankings
R1:
1. Delaware Valley (5-0) (1-0) - Key Win - Lycoming (3-2)
2. Merchant Marine (5-0) (1-0) - Key Win - FDU-Florham (4-1)
3. Wilkes (5-0) (0-0)
4. FDU-Florham (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win - Widener (5-1)
5. Widener (5-1) (0-1) - Key Loss - FDU-Florham (4-1)
6. Catholic (3-2) (1-1) - Key Win - Endicott (5-1)
7. Endicott (5-1) (0-1) Key Win - St. Lawrence
8. Lycoming (4-2) (0-2) Key Losses - Delaware Valley (5-0), Susquehanna (5-0
9. Salve Regina (5-1) (0-0) Key Win - UNE (3-2)
10. Bridgewater State (4-2) (0-0) - Key Loss - Ithaca (5-0)

R2.
1. Ithaca (5-0) (2-0) Key Win(s) - Hobart (4-1), Brockport (3-2), Bridgewater State (4-2)
2. Union (5-0) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Utica (4-1), St. Lawrence (3-2)
3. Susquehanna (5-0) (1-0) Key Win(s) - Lycoming (4-2), Ursinus (3-2)
4. Cortland (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Brockport (3-2), TCNJ (3-2)
5. Johns Hopkins (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Ursinus (3-2)
6. RPI (6-0) (0-0)
7. Salisbury (3-1) (0-1) Key Loss - UW-W (5-0)
8. Hobart (4-1) (0-1) Key Loss - Ithaca (5-0)
9. Utica (4-1) (0-1) Key Loss - Union (5-0)
10. Muhlenberg (4-1) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - TCNJ (3-2)

Key Wins - Teams above .500

Here is my updated bracket - officepoolstop.com/Brackets/35411

MRMIKESMITH · October 12, 2021, 09:25:56 PM

Don't forget your Ballots..

Bartman · October 13, 2021, 04:27:22 PM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 12, 2021, 09:25:56 PM
Don't forget your Ballots..

I sent mine in Monday, assume you got it.

The Mole · October 13, 2021, 06:11:25 PM

Sent mine yesterday (no changes BTW)

Quote from: Bartman on October 13, 2021, 04:27:22 PM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 12, 2021, 09:25:56 PM
Don't forget your Ballots..
I sent mine in Monday, assume you got it.

MRMIKESMITH · October 14, 2021, 12:31:31 PM

Here is the R1R2 Fan Poll for week 5. We were short 1 voter this week to due personal obligations.
Rank Team Previous Points
1) Delaware Valley (2) 1 54
2) Johns Hopkins (3) 2 53
3) Union (1) 3 43
4) Salisbury 5 37
5) Cortland 7 32
6) Susquehanna 6 31
7) Ithaca 4 30
8) Muhlenberg 8 21
9) RPI 10 10
10) Hobart 9 16

Dropped Out: None

RV) Ursinus (3), Dickinson (1), Trinity (1), USMMA (1)

Key Game(s):
John's Hopkins (#2) v. Muhlenberg (#8) , RPI (#9) v. Hobart (#10), Brockport (NR) v. Utica (NR), Wilkes (NR) v Widener (NR), Endicott (NR) v. Husson (NR)

Voters: FANOFD3, Massey, D3Football.com, ITH, Oline89, Bartman, Mole

Edit: Remember for next week that the PAC has been added to R1/R2, which definitely throws a wrinkle into the Pool C Category. I think logistically for playoff consideration, it makes since as PAC members play R1/R2 teams frequently.

Bartman · October 17, 2021, 09:07:41 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 14, 2021, 12:31:31 PM
Here is the R1R2 Fan Poll for week 5. We were short 1 voter this week to due personal obligations.
Rank Team Previous Points
1) Delaware Valley (2) 1 54
2) Johns Hopkins (3) 2 53
3) Union (1) 3 43
4) Salisbury 5 37
5) Cortland 7 32
6) Susquehanna 6 31
7) Ithaca 4 30
8) Muhlenberg 8 21
9) RPI 10 10
10) Hobart 9 16

Dropped Out: None

RV) Ursinus (3), Dickinson (1), Trinity (1), USMMA (1)

Key Game(s):
John's Hopkins (#2) v. Muhlenberg (#8) , RPI (#9) v. Hobart (#10), Brockport (NR) v. Utica (NR), Wilkes (NR) v Widener (NR), Endicott (NR) v. Husson (NR)

Voters: FANOFD3, Massey, D3Football.com, ITH, Oline89, Bartman, Mole

Edit: Remember for next week that the PAC has been added to R1/R2, which definitely throws a wrinkle into the Pool C Category. I think logistically for playoff consideration, it makes since as PAC members play R1/R2 teams frequently.

Just to confirm, we should incorporate PAC teams in this weeks poll?

MRMIKESMITH · October 18, 2021, 09:39:20 AM

Quote from: Bartman on October 17, 2021, 09:07:41 AM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 14, 2021, 12:31:31 PM
Here is the R1R2 Fan Poll for week 5. We were short 1 voter this week to due personal obligations.
Rank Team Previous Points
1) Delaware Valley (2) 1 54
2) Johns Hopkins (3) 2 53
3) Union (1) 3 43
4) Salisbury 5 37
5) Cortland 7 32
6) Susquehanna 6 31
7) Ithaca 4 30
8) Muhlenberg 8 21
9) RPI 10 10
10) Hobart 9 16

Dropped Out: None

RV) Ursinus (3), Dickinson (1), Trinity (1), USMMA (1)

Key Game(s):
John's Hopkins (#2) v. Muhlenberg (#8) , RPI (#9) v. Hobart (#10), Brockport (NR) v. Utica (NR), Wilkes (NR) v Widener (NR), Endicott (NR) v. Husson (NR)

Voters: FANOFD3, Massey, D3Football.com, ITH, Oline89, Bartman, Mole

Edit: Remember for next week that the PAC has been added to R1/R2, which definitely throws a wrinkle into the Pool C Category. I think logistically for playoff consideration, it makes since as PAC members play R1/R2 teams frequently.
Just to confirm, we should incorporate PAC teams in this weeks poll?

YES, please incorporate PAC into rankings.

The Mole · October 18, 2021, 12:10:02 PM

1. W&J
2. Del Val
3. Union
4. Ithaca
5. Muhlenberg
6. Salisbury
7. Susquehanna
8. Hopkins
9. Cortland
10. Hobart/Trinity

Bartman · October 18, 2021, 06:25:39 PM

I took a completely fresh look at the 2021 year data by looking at SOS(++ for higher rating), wins against ranked or RV opponents(++) , wins against winning teams(+), close losses against ranked teams(+) and losses against unranked teams(-), and this is what my incredibley precise and scientific model produced this week:
All 6-0:
1. Ithaca(4 SOS win over Hobart(RV) and Brockport 4-2 win
2.Del Val(51 SOS, win over 4-2 Lycoming)
3.Wash & Jeff( lowest 174 SOS but a win over a ranked opponent in John Carroll(24..ranking deserved?))
4.Susquehanna(100 SOS Win over 4-2 Lycoming)
5.Union(138 SOS Win over 4-2 Utica)
6.Cortland(141 SOS Win over 4-2 Brockport)
All 5-1:
7.Hobart(65 SOS, win over RV RPI and close loss to Ithaca #16)
8.Muhlenberg(117 SOS, win over #23 Johns Hopkins, not close loss to Ursinus)
9.Salisbury(118 SOS sorta close loss to Whitewater #3)
10.Johns Hopkins(127 SOS, not close loss to #18 Muhlenberg)

bman · October 19, 2021, 07:29:25 AM

FanofD3
I have always been a bit skeptical of SOS numbers to differentiate teams. The OOC choices help, but teams generally can't pick their schedule, and get harmed if their OOC choices bomb. Their SOS is determined by whether their league is good. For a team like Del Val, they get harmed if their division plays poorly, and their OOC choices don't have winning records (See Widener/Rowan). I like that it is normalized (a bit) by the SOOS and the quality wins.
I like your listing, but given that factor I wonder if Muhl and W&J belong a bit higher due to their quality wins.

also +K for all of your efforts

IC798891 · October 19, 2021, 03:05:21 PM

Quote from: Bartman on October 18, 2021, 06:25:39 PM
I took a completely fresh look at the 2021 year data by looking at SOS(++ for higher rating), wins against ranked or RV opponents(++) , wins against winning teams(+), close losses against ranked teams(+) and losses against unranked teams(-), and this is what my incredibley precise and scientific model produced this week:
All 6-0:
1. Ithaca(4 SOS win over Hobart(RV) and Brockport 4-2 win
2.Del Val(51 SOS, win over 4-2 Lycoming)
3.Wash & Jeff( lowest 174 SOS but a win over a ranked opponent in John Carroll(24..ranking deserved?))
4.Susquehanna(100 SOS Win over 4-2 Lycoming)
5.Union(138 SOS Win over 4-2 Utica)
6.Cortland(141 SOS Win over 4-2 Brockport)
All 5-1:
7.Hobart(65 SOS, win over RV RPI and close loss to Ithaca #16)
8.Muhlenberg(117 SOS, win over #23 Johns Hopkins, not close loss to Ursinus)
9.Salisbury(118 SOS sorta close loss to Whitewater #3)
10.Johns Hopkins(127 SOS, not close loss to #18 Muhlenberg)

IC is really benefitting from the E8 basically being a two-horse race, and probably giving them 9-1 and 8-2 OOC opponents. And Bridgewater State has even ripped off 4 wins in a row.

It'll be interesting to see Union/Hobart/RPI/IC shake themselves out, and how many of them wind up in the RRs.

MRMIKESMITH · October 20, 2021, 09:31:58 AM

Here is the R1R2 Fan Poll for week 7. We are down to 6 voters. If anyone wants to be added, pm or display on board. Also, if any PAC follower would like to participate, we welcome you to get more insight on the PAC.
Rank Team Previous Points
1) Delaware Valley (3) 1 55
2) W&J (1) N/A 42
3) Union 3 40
4) Ithaca (1) 7 38
5) Susquehanna 6 32
6t) Cortland 5 31
6t) Muhlenberg 8 31
8) Salisbury 4 29
9) Johns Hopkins (1) 2 19
10) Hobart 10 9.5

Dropped Out: RPI

RV) Ursinus (2), USMMA (1), Trinity (.5)

Key Game(s):
Cortland (#6) v. Utica (NR) , Endicott (NR) v. Salve Regina (NR), Salisbury (#8) v. Kean (NR), Merchant Marine (RV) v. Catholic (NR), W&J (#2) v. Westminster (PA.) (NR)

Voters: FANOFD3, Massey, D3Football.com, Oline89, Bartman, Mole

IC798891 · October 21, 2021, 09:23:53 AM

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 09:49:49 PM
My updated Regional Rankings
R1:
1. Delaware Valley - (6-0) SOS (.557) (1-0)
2. Merchant Marine (5-0) SOS (.504) (1-0)
3. FDU-Florham (4-2) SOS (.659) (1-2)
4. Widener (6-1) SOS (.466) (1-1)
5. Catholic (5-2) SOS (.507) (1-1)
6. Endicott (6-1) SOS (.543) (0-1)
7. Lycoming (4-2) SOS (.592) (0-2)
8. Bridgewater State (4-2) SOS (.505) (0-1)
9. Salve Regina (5-1) SOS (.446) (0-0)
10. Wilkes (5-1) SOS (.364) (0-1)

R2.
1. Ithaca (6-0) SOS (.661) (3-0)
2. Susquehanna (6-0) SOS (.509) (1-0)
3. Cortland (6-0) SOS (.469) (1-0)
4. Union (6-0) SOS (.474) (0-0)
5. Washington & Jefferson (6-0) SOS (.445) (0-0)
6. Hobart (5-1) SOS (.541) (0-1)
7. Salisbury (4-1) SOS (.498) (0-1)
8. Muhlenberg (5-1) SOS (.500) (1-0)
9. Brockport (4-2) SOS (.675) (0-2)
10. Johns Hopkins (5-1) SOS (.488) (0-1)

Bold - Pool A Leaders

If you're IC, you're definitely rooting for Hobart to beat Union, right? It seems like it would be better for their Pool C if they had two results against 9-1 LL teams than one 8-2 and one 10-0.

MRMIKESMITH · October 21, 2021, 10:46:35 AM

Quote from: IC798891 on October 21, 2021, 09:23:53 AM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 09:49:49 PM
My updated Regional Rankings
R1:
1. Delaware Valley - (6-0) SOS (.557) (1-0)
2. Merchant Marine (5-0) SOS (.504) (1-0)
3. FDU-Florham (4-2) SOS (.659) (1-2)
4. Widener (6-1) SOS (.466) (1-1)
5. Catholic (5-2) SOS (.507) (1-1)
6. Endicott (6-1) SOS (.543) (0-1)
7. Lycoming (4-2) SOS (.592) (0-2)
8. Bridgewater State (4-2) SOS (.505) (0-1)
9. Salve Regina (5-1) SOS (.446) (0-0)
10. Wilkes (5-1) SOS (.364) (0-1)

R2.
1. Ithaca (6-0) SOS (.661) (3-0)
2. Susquehanna (6-0) SOS (.509) (1-0)
3. Cortland (6-0) SOS (.469) (1-0)
4. Union (6-0) SOS (.474) (0-0)
5. Washington & Jefferson (6-0) SOS (.445) (0-0)
6. Hobart (5-1) SOS (.541) (0-1)
7. Salisbury (4-1) SOS (.498) (0-1)
8. Muhlenberg (5-1) SOS (.500) (1-0)
9. Brockport (4-2) SOS (.675) (0-2)
10. Johns Hopkins (5-1) SOS (.488) (0-1)

Bold - Pool A Leaders

If you're IC, you're definitely rooting for Hobart to beat Union, right? It seems like it would be better for their Pool C if they had two results against 9-1 LL teams than one 8-2 and one 10-0.

Regarding OWP, it will average out to be the same. However, you have a better chance of both teams being regionally ranked at 9-1 rather one being 10-0 and the other 8-2. Especially as its been mentioned by D3 crew and ITH that we may have only 6-9 teams, rather than 10. 2 losses will definitely make it more difficult to get on to the board in R2 if we have anything less than 9. Hypothetically, we can have a two 9-1 CC, one 9-1 NJAC, two 9-1 PAC, one 9-1 E8, and three 9-1 LL teams. That's 9 hypothetically 1 loss teams there, if we were to get nine regionally rank teams, and that's just projecting for a 9-1 Ithaca losing to a 9-1 Union and beating Cortland, which would be 9-1. We could potentially have a 8-2 Brockport with possibly a regionally rank win against a 8-2 Framingham State and 8-2 CC team with a regionally rank win and that could easily be Susquehanna losing to JH and Muhlenberg while maintaining a win over a RR Lycoming team on the outside looking in in a 9 team RR system.