Pool C -- 2007

[Ralph Turner]

The Handbook is out!

Appendix J has the OWP and the OOWP.

Also there are 7 Pool C bids for 2007.

The "Access Ratio" determining the number of Pool B bids is 1:8.636.  (190 members of Pool A conferences divided by 22 conferences.)

[altor]

I take it the OWP and OOWP are taking the place of the old "Quality Wins Index," which was really quite worthless.  I'm not sure how much better this is in a group the size of D-III, but I guess they need some objective method of comparing all the 9-1 teams.

As a side note...does it bother anybody else that the NCAA can't even add properly in Appendix J?  Count the losses in the "Revised Record" column in Appendix J.  6+14+19+12+6 = 57, not 56.

[DPU3619]

As a side note...does it bother anybody else that the NCAA can't even add properly in Appendix J?  Count the losses in the "Revised Record" column in Appendix J.  6+14+19+12+6 = 57, not 56.

Hey, at least you got that far.  I made it about four lines in before a severe case of befuddlement set in.    

Didn't know I'd need my graphing calcuator this season.

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.

[altor]

Pat,
Do these OWP and OOWP numbers only include teams that each team has played to date?  Or are you including everybody on the schedule through November?

As an example, is BW's record already built into MUC's OWP?  Or will it be added when they are recalculated next week?

I could crunch the numbers for one team and find out myself, but I'm feeling lazy tonight.

[Ralph Turner]

Altor, I think that the numbers only include games to date.  You never know when a game might canceled by a hurricane or lightning!

[K-Mack]

Altor, I think that the numbers only include games to date. 

I also think that too, but I can't say for certain.

[Ralph Turner]

Altor, I think that the numbers only include games to date. 

Salisbury's OWP is .857.  That is the winning percentage that Salisbury's opponents have (minus the loss to Salisbury).

Albright 5-0
CNU 3-1
Del Valley 4-1

This equals 12-2 (.857 winning percentage). 

[altor]

I think that's a safe bet.  I guess looking at Salisbury makes it easy.  (I didn't want to break out the calculator at midnight  )

Albright   5-0
Christopher-Newport  3-1
Delaware Valley  3-1
(1.000  + .750 + .750) / 3 = .833   <- Matches the posted OWP

The other 3 regional games on their schedule include a 1-5 team, 5-1, and 1-1.
(1.000 + .833 + .750 + .750 + .500 + .167) /6 = .667

[altor]

This equals 12-2 (.857 winning percentage). 

Ralph,
If I read appendix J right, you don't total the wins and losses.  You average the percentages. 

[Ralph Turner]

This equals 12-2 (.857 winning percentage). 

Ralph,
If I read appendix J right, you don't total the wins and losses.  You average the percentages. 

+1 altor!  Thanks!
I missed that.  That way of calculating the OWP has the effect of bringing the totals down towards .500.

Imagine this scenario.  I am doubling the games that Albright and CNU have played  and achieved the same winning percentage. 

Albright 10-0  =1.000
CNU         6-2  = .750
Del Valley 3-1  = .750
Total        19-3 = .863

However 1.000 + .750 + .750 = .833 as you clearly demonstrated.

[Ralph Turner]

Otterbein 17, Capital 10!  Capital plays MUC next weekend.  Capital is now on the cusp of Pool C.  If they run the table, including beating MUC next week, then they get the OAC Pool A.

[pg04]

including beating MUC next week

Oh yeah, that's child's play! 

[smedindy]

Otterbein 17, Capital 10!  Capital plays MUC next weekend.  Capital is now on the cusp of Pool C.  If they run the table, including beating MUC next week, then they get the OAC Pool A.

And if Oberlin would have beaten Wabash today they were in control of the NCAC race.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Assuming for the moment that Cap does not beat MUC, how much danger do people think Cap is in of missing the tourney?