Pool C -- 2007

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph - Whats your opinion on Central barring a loss on the 10th. Strong Pool C bid?

Barring a loss, Central wins the AQ and doesn't have to worry about Pool C.  It's only if they lose that you have to worry about what the selection committee thinks.  And I would think that loss is a real problem.  They would be 0-1 against regionally ranked opponents as well as their poor OWP.

Sorry that I didn't make myself clear.  I still think that a one-loss team gets a Pool C bid, (maybe not Curry.)

[PA_wesleyfan]

"Almost all of us will acknowledge that missing the playoffs with 2 losses is not as bad as undefeated teams not making the 16-team field. " Ralph Turner



Teams used to roll up scores on lesser teams to get the attention for the regional rankings. 4 teams from each region only . I remember a year in the south when there was 6 undefeated teams .

[altor]

Sorry that I didn't make myself clear.  I still think that a one-loss team gets a Pool C bid, (maybe not Curry.)

This is probably true, but certainly is not established.  Last night, I detailed 10 teams that could finish with 1-loss in Pool C.  And, I realized after reading somebody's post later, that I missed a scenario where RPI has 1-loss and doesn't get the AQ.  That makes 11.

Plymouth St is on the list for the sake of completeness, but I don't believe they are really in the hunt for Pool C (they weren't on the regional rankings last week).  Curry probably moves up to #2 in the East since RPI lost.  Does a loss in the conference championship drop them from #2 to out of the playoffs?  A lot of people would like to think so.  I think even more are hoping they just win and remove all doubt.

But, if Central loses, which is not out of the question (remember St John's last year), and everybody else on the list wins, we could very easily be looking at as many as eight legitimate 1-loss teams trying for seven Pool C bids (add a 9th if St John's loses too).  If this happens, Waynesburg, Occidental, RPI, and Central would be on my bubble list, if only because of their OWP.

[Ralph Turner]

I believe these are the possible 1-loss teams in Pool C.  I count 10 at the moment.
Central, St John's, and Curry clinch an AQ with a win next week.
St John Fisher and Redlands can move to Pool A with a win and some help.

E8 - St John Fisher (8-1/8-1/4-1) vs Alfred
If SJF loses to Alfred (7-2/7-2/4-1), then Alfred gets the Pool A bid, by virtue of the head-to-head to Hartwick.  SJF will have 2 losses.
If SJF beats Alfred, Alfred has 2 (in-region) losses,and Hartwick gets the Pool A bid.


HCAC - Mt St Joseph (8-1) vs Thomas More
This is the Bridge Bowl rivalry game.  Franklin has the Pool A bid, by virtue of the head-to-head win over MSJ.

IIAC - Central (9-0/8-0/7-0) at Wartburg
Losing to Wartburg gives Wartburg (8-1/8-1/7-0) the Pool A bid.  Wartburg has an ugly loss to Augsburg.

MIAC - St John's (9-0) at Bethel
Bethel (8-1/8-1/7-0) has an ugly loss to Buena Vista, so they need to win.

NEFC - Curry (10-0) vs. Coast Guard in the Championship game
NEFC - Plymouth St (7-1) at Salve Regina (tomorrow)
The NEFC rarely plays strong teams outside its conference.

PAC - Waynesburg
(7-2/6-1/4-1) at Geneva. (Provisional Geneva won in OT, . ) Waynesburg hosts Westminster  5-4/4-3/2-3).


SCIAC - Occidental (7-1) at Whittier
Oxy is (7-1/7-1/5-1) and needs Cal Lutheran (5-3/5-3/5-0) to lose to Redlands.  Cal Lu can clinch the Pool A by beating Redlands.


SCIAC - Redlands (7-1) at Cal Lutheran.
Redlands is (7-1/6-1/4-1) and needs to defeat Cal Lu for any chance.  I am not sure of the tie-breakers in the SCIAC.  (Rose Bowl Rule?)

Pool B - possibly 1 of:
Case Western Reserve (9-0) vs Ohio Wesleyan
Probably must defeat OWU to lock in the Pool B.

Salisbury (8-1) vs Frostburg St
Salisbury is (8-1/4-1/2-1)  Rivalry game. Playing Frostburg St at Annapolis. 

Wesley (8-1/6-1/4-0) at Morrisville St (non-region game)

Whitworth (7-2/7-1/5-0) at Puget Sound   (loss to Azusa Pacific is not in region)

[Pat Coleman]

The reason I come up with, is the NCAA controlling their costs.  I beleive we seen an example or two of this in the past.

Maybe I'm wrong, but somehow I think we'll end up with an even number in the West.  It'll just happen that way without explanation ...

There's no reason there has to be 2 or 4 west coast teams.

The costs only come into play after the teams are selected, when the matchups are being created.

[KitchenSink]

Okay, but don't you beleive they factor that in (one way or another) when they select the at large teams from the West?

[smedindy]

No. They have a set criteria they follow. They examine each team in comparison to the other teams and decide on the merits of each team.

[Ralph Turner]

Quoting Sabretooth Tiger off the SCIAC board on his 1000th post, to help us make sense of the SCIAC.  A big +1! 

So we've got the most down to the wire SCIAC finish in years and this board goes silent?  OB and RFB have to debate running up the score on the NWC board?  Where's your local pride boys?

Think about this weekend:

Cal Lu wins, Oxy loses - Cal Lu is champ and Pool A
Cal Lu wins, Oxy wins - Cal Lu is champ and Pool A . . . Oxy has a shot at a Pool C
Cal Lu loses, Oxy loses - Redlands is co-champ and Pool A based on H2H
Cal Lu loses, Oxy wins - 3 way conf champion tie, Cal Lu still gets Pool A based on Rose Bowl rule - and Oxy and Redland both wait to see how NCAA ranking sort out to see whether either gets a pool C.

discuss, cheer, prognosticate, speculate and rant away.

[PA_wesleyfan]

 Maybe if the ACFC ever gets a conference recognised by the ncaa and there are no independents left the guidelines will change and force more regional games or only count  8(just a number) regional games so that teams that have to go out of DIII to complete schedules

[Ralph Turner]

One of the primary criteria for a Pool C selection is "In-region results versus regionally ranked teams." One of the secondary criteria is "Results versus all Division III ranked teams."

Questions: What ranking is used? Is it the the AFCA poll? Which week's poll is used? Is it the last week of the season poll?

If this has been asked and answered before, then I apologize for asking again.

OxyBob

Bob, I understand that it is against other NCAA Regionally Ranked Teams.

[Ralph Turner]

2005 Projection

OxyBob, I found this in the archives.  It is a good of an example what may happen behind the committee doors for selecting the at-large bids that I have found.

The QOWI is replaced by the OWP and OOWP this year.

[Pat Coleman]

One of the primary criteria for a Pool C selection is "In-region results versus regionally ranked teams." One of the secondary criteria is "Results versus all Division III ranked teams."

Questions: What ranking is used? Is it the the AFCA poll? Which week's poll is used? Is it the last week of the season poll?

If this has been asked and answered before, then I apologize for asking again.

OxyBob

Bob, I understand that it is against other NCAA Regionally Ranked Teams.

Technically, non-regional games against teams that are regionally ranked. If Occidental were to play Trinity, that would be a regional game against a regionally ranked team and should be considered in the primary criteria. If Occidental were to play St. John Fisher, that would be a non-regional game against a regionally ranked team and considered in the secondary criteria, if at all.

[K-Mack]

Ralph Turner. I am admittedly not all that familiar with the OAC, except for Mt Union, of course. I know that they have been considered a strong conference, but what, this year, validates that. I think that this year is one where much of the past is irrelevant. The MIAC for example, which I am familiar with, seems to have gained some strength, at least in the #2 through #5 teams. St John's is still St John's, but there has been a resurgence and consequently more parity in the teams behind them.

Educate me.

I might also add that IMHO, the WIAC, except for Whitewater, has also seemed to have fallen in quality this year in the teams behind UWW.

Wait.

Just because there's no dominant No. 2 doesn't mean those conferences are weak ... if you have several teams knocking each other off AND performing well out-of-conference, that's a sign of a very strong conference, not a weak one.

I agree with the general assessment on the bottom half of Page 10 about Pool C. Also think the subjective value of a 2-loss team losing their last two would have to be something the committee notices, even though it is not official criteria and therefore can't officially be part of the decision.

Depending on this week's results, two-loss teams are not dead.

Problem is, I made a list of about 20 of them.

If this is still interesting (read: not dissected already here) by Thursday, I will include it in the column.

[K-Mack]

The reason I come up with, is the NCAA controlling their costs.  I beleive we seen an example or two of this in the past.

Controlling costs has been a reason why they do things like match up #2 against #3 in a region in the first round.  I don't believe it has ever been used as a reason to select one school over another.

Absolutely.

The NCAA picks 32 teams on merit (aka criteria) and THEN is permitted to mix and match as they see fit to conserve costs.

They are never permitted to let travel costs or polls or anything not on the list affect any teams fair access to the playoffs ... fair access for all being a stated goal of Division III as a whole.

I know we repeat ourselves a lot when it comes to this, but as long as people are still misunderstanding, we'll still have to keep doing to make sure the misinformation doesn't spread.

[KitchenSink]

I apologize if my conspiracy-theory mind may have caused confusion in the ranks.

I guess I've been watching too much Hollywood anti-government / anti-establishment stuff.  (Don't tell Oliver Stone about D-III, please).