Pool C -- 2007

[Ralph Turner]

I apologize if my conspiracy-theory mind may have caused confusion in the ranks.

I guess I've been watching too much Hollywood anti-government / anti-establishment stuff.  (Don't tell Oliver Stone about D-III, please).

+1!

[sju56321]

Questions for all you:

I understand the best 32 are chosen with the AQ, etc. For sake of argument, if the NWC and the SCIAC each get only one team in the playoffs, and if the top teams win out in the other West region games this weekend, you will have 6 spots taken, with a bunch of two loss teams left. What teams from the North would fit geographically to play the West teams, with UWW and St. Norberts being the farthest East? The IBC Champ? It seems like a lot of East teams and maybe South teams could fill out the 32 teams.

[KitchenSink]

Bob, you are all over it.  

You know, when I was Dallas years ago I did go past the shooting site - but I didn't see anyone suspicious looking there.  8)

I'm just your garden variety cheesehead, but I am one of those CPA's that went through the the UWW business school.  I couldn't afford Wharton.

I apologize if my conspiracy-theory mind may have caused confusion in the ranks. I guess I've been watching too much Hollywood anti-government / anti-establishment stuff.

While you claim to be a fan of UW-Whitewater, perhaps you are really from here. So which is it?

OxyBob

[Ralph Turner]

Questions for all you:

I understand the best 32 are chosen with the AQ, etc. For sake of argument, if the NWC and the SCIAC each get only one team in the playoffs, and if the top teams win out in the other West region games this weekend, you will have 6 spots taken, with a bunch of two loss teams left. What teams from the North would fit geographically to play the West teams, with UWW and St. Norberts being the farthest East? The IBC Champ? It seems like a lot of East teams and maybe South teams could fill out the 32 teams.

SJU, I think that you need to go to the FAQ on the front page and click on the playoffs.

The playoff bids are distributed to give access to all 230 teams in D-3.

The conference champs get an AQ, or Pool A bid, which is 22 this year. "Win your conference.  Get the Playoff Bid."

The independents and the members of conferences that do not have an AQ are "pooled" into Pool B.  The number of Pool Bbids is determined by the access ratio, which is the quotient from the number of teams that belong to Pool A conferences divided by the number of Pool A conferences.  This year, it is 3 Pool B bids.

The remaining 7 bids are awarded to the 7 best teams that remain, regardless of region or conference. The brackets are then determined with geographic proximity considered.

So, a South may be sent to the East.  A North may be sent to the East.  A West may be sent to the North.

[Ralph Turner]

2005 Projection

OxyBob, I found this in the archives.  It is a good of an example what may happen behind the committee doors for selecting the at-large bids that I have found.

The QOWI is replaced by the OWP and OOWP this year.

SJU, click on the link above to read how Pat Coleman projected it in 2005. 

[Gray Fox]

So, a South may be sent to the East.  A North may be sent to the East.  A West may be sent to the North.

So I may get a chance to see Redlands or Oxy play UMHB?

[smedindy]

[
The remaining 7 bids are awarded to the 7 best teams that remain, regardless of region or conference. The brackets are then determined with geographic proximity considered.

7 best teams that remain based upon the NCAA's criteria and regional rankings, which of course, does not equal the seven best teams.

[HScoach]

Man, the playoff discussion is dead.

[Ralph Turner]

Man, the playoff discussion is dead.

Yeah, all of the one-loss teams know that they have to win on Saturday, and the two-loss teams are scared to say anything. 

In the meantime, we have not seen the Regional Rankings to see how close everyone else is.

[old ends]

With the AQ to be set by this weekend, the one loss teams look better the the two loss teams. I know that strenght of schedule rules kick in, but still a loss by a conference AQ could toss any hopes of a two loss team out the door.

[KitchenSink]

Ok, here's some new analysis.

I see on the SOS page 10 teams with undefeated records, and 20 teams with 1 loss.  30 teams.  Now, there are 2 teams already with an AQ in their pocket that have 2+ losses - Concordia (Wi) and Widener.  Add another AQ to the MIAA team that comes out of thir pack - and there could be another if Cal Luth gets the SCIAC AQ with 3 or potentially even 4 losses.

That suggests there are 28 or 29 slots availabe to those 30 zero or one loss teams.  There are 3 games between 2 teams on that list - St John's/Bethel, Central/Wartburg, and Curry/Coast Guard.  If the undefeated team wins each of those games (the und team is listed first), then the other team falls into a big pot of 2 loss teams.  I'm not even gonna try and calculate the 2 loss team potentials - I'm just trying to get an understanding of what may be available to 2-loss teams.

Those three games could reduce the zero or one loss team total to 27.  Of that 27, 10 have AQ's (as I mentioned above - 2 AQ's are held by teams with 2+ losses).  So that leaves 17 teams "on the list".

Of those 17, there will be either 8 or 9 AQ's handed out (depending on the SCIAC/Cal Luth situation) to teams either on the list or to a team that will replace a team on that list - i.e., if Wheaton, St John Fisher, RPI, Trinity Tx, or Rand-Macon lose on Saturday (or win, but lose out on a tiebreaker), a 2 loss team will get the AQ so that doesn't add another available bracket spot.

Now - Pool B.  There are 4 teams "on the list"  Case WR is undefeated, Wesley, Whitworth, & Salisbury.  3 slots are guaranteed to Pool B'ers.  Case would seem to be in like Flynn win or lose, but if one or more of the other 3 get beat on Saturday, one bracket spot (but no more than that, even if they all lose) would open up.

Which (not counting the SCIAC teams) leaves Plymouth State, Mt St Joseph, and Waynesburg.  If they win on Sat, they stay "on the list" - but lose and they fall off.  Well, Plymouth State doesn't play, so never mind them.  So that's a possible 2 more spots that could become available to 2-loss teams.

Now, the SCIAC - If Oxy loses on Sat, the Redlands/Cal Luth winner goes in, and the other will be in the 2+ loss pile, and "off the list".  But we could also have a three way tie if Oxy and Redlands win, and all would be "on the list" or AQ because of the tiebreaker.  So we could see either 1, 2, or 3 from the SCIAC get into the bracket.

So according to my tally, we could have anywhere from 1 one-loss team excluded (not counting the AQ teams) to including up to 6 two-loss teams (with 1 SCIAC team), thanks to Pool C.

Did I miss anything?

[KitchenSink]

Let me do a boiled down version of my previous post.

If your team has the 6th best SOS and an 8-2 record (regional) at the end of the day Saturday, you need all of this to happen:

St John's beats Bethel
Central beats Wartburg
Curry beats Coast Guard
Oxy loses
Mt St Joe loses
Waynesburg loses
And at least one of Wesley, Whitworth or Salisbury loses

Any other losses only changes AQ's and doesn't affect Pool C.

[dc_has_been]

I believe the North region would look like this w/ their SOS & regional record:
1. Wabash (66) 9-0
2. Mount Union (147) 9-0
3. Case Western (170) 7-0
4. Franklin (29) 8-1
5. Wheaton (47) 8-1
6. Mount St. Joseph (144) 8-1
7. North Central (42) 7-2
8. Capital (73) 7-2
9. Carthage (95) 7-2
10. Hope (32) 5-2
Concordia would get in w/ AQ bid for the playoffs, but heard maybe they could be moved out of the North region.  As would a MIAA school get in w/ a AQ into the north, whom ever that may be (Hope, Alma, or Olivet)

[Carl Menist]

Let me do a boiled down version of my previous post.

If your team has the 6th best SOS and an 8-2 record (regional) at the end of the day Saturday, you need all of this to happen:

St John's beats Bethel
Central beats Wartburg
Curry beats Coast Guard
Oxy loses
Mt St Joe loses
Waynesburg loses
And at least one of Wesley, Whitworth or Salisbury loses

Any other losses only changes AQ's and doesn't affect Pool C.

Is it your opinion that the C Pool will include 1 one loss team and 6 two loss teams or 6 one loss teams and 1 two loss team?

[KitchenSink]

If I understand correctly how the NCAA applies the Strength of Schedule concept (no guarantees) ...

And all of those games turn out as I indicated ...

That would mean Pool C would be one 1-loss and six 2-loss.

For every one of those items that does NOT occur, the number of 2-loss teams would decrease by one.  All the way to none, and if all seven of those go the other way one 1-loss team would be excluded.