Pool C -- 2007

[Pat Coleman]

The Waynesburg/Geneva game can be accounted for in two separate parts of the secondary criteria even if Geneva is treated like an NAIA school.

[usee]

The guru weighs in:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/07/projecting-the-playoffs-3/

[johnnie_esq]

I am a little intrigued by PC's Bethel selection-- not because I don't think they aren't worthy (if they beat SJU on Saturday, they will prove it and take the Pool A bid), but the thought that they will lose on Saturday and still get in.

I guess I am not convinced that the Committee would see it the same way.  I have to think St. Olaf's losses to an undefeated SJU and a bubbling BU bests BU's losses to an undefeated SJU and a mediocre at best BVU.  Their schedules otherwise are pretty much the same, though should BU's win over a very mediocre Simpson team give them a head over STO's win over Valley City State (NAIA) simply because of regional/non-regional/non d-3 wins?  In fairness, BU has the head-to-head over the two...but you have to see them both as pretty similar as 2-loss teams.

Since STO doesn't show up on the regional rankings, I have to think the committee is looking at UWEC pretty strongly here if they win out-- keep in mind that UWEC has only played 6 regional and 7 NCAA games to date, yet their two losses are still ranked above STO's, whose 8 regional and 9 NCAA games to date produced an identical record.  It seems to me that thus the Committee is not penalizing teams in the West for not playing D3 competition (I use penalize because UWW doesn't lose the one seed despite their Non-D3 loss).  And if that is the case, all else equal, a WIAC-in conference loss would prove to be more valuable than a MIAC loss to a poor IIAC team.  Throw in a win over a D-2 scholarship team, and I still think UWEC is strongly in the fold.

In a head to head comparison, assuming a BU loss this weekend and a UWEC win, I have to think UWEC looks better than Bethel, so given my reasoning above, it should drop BU behind UWEC.  Of course, PC may have been thinking that Stout takes down the Blugolds in the rivalry game...

[Josh Bowerman]

I think the main thing St. Olaf's has working against them is the fact that they'll finish 3rd in the MIAC, Johnnie.  SOS at 16 or not, a third place team won't get in, IMO.

[Pat Coleman]

I think the main thing St. Olaf has working against it is the fact that it lost to Bethel!

[johnnie_esq]

I think the main thing St. Olaf has working against it is the fact that it lost to Bethel!

I get the St. Olaf thing...

But UWEC?  If UWEC's D-2 victories hurt it because they are not a D3 victory, shouldn't UWW's D-2 loss hurt it as well? 

Don't get me wrong-- I still think UWW should be a number one seed, but I do see a double standard here when it comes to UWEC/Bethel.  St. Olaf is a measuring stick-- if UWEC is over St. Olaf in the regional rankings, and St. Olaf and Bethel are similar assuming a loss to SJU, does a H2H over St. Olaf give BU a jump way over UWEC in the regional rankings?  Should it?  If not, is the criteria solely based upon D3 games versus non-D3 games?

[Pat Coleman]

But UWEC?  If UWEC's D-2 victories hurt it because they are not a D3 victory, shouldn't UWW's D-2 loss hurt it as well? 

I don't think this is true. Take the regional winning percentage at face value and if 667 is compared to 778 the difference is kind of striking. But I don't think it works that way. Like I said, here or somewhere anyway, we'll re-run the numbers through Saturday's games and we may get a different perspective.

[DutchFan2004]

Johnnie esq,

If you use your logic about Bethel and ST Olaf,  This would move Wartburg ahead of Bethel as well.  The conference rankings have the MIAC a much higher conference than the IIAC.  So if a team from the IIAC suffers a loss to a middle of the road MIAC team and a MIAC team suffers a loss to a middle of the road IIAC team does it not follow the MIAC suffers the worse loss?  I have no idea what will happen but if SJU and Central do not win it becomes a moot point. 

[johnnie_esq]

But UWEC?  If UWEC's D-2 victories hurt it because they are not a D3 victory, shouldn't UWW's D-2 loss hurt it as well? 

I don't think this is true. Take the regional winning percentage at face value and if 667 is compared to 778 the difference is kind of striking.

I don't know if I follow, but I think I found the trap.

St. Olaf's regional winning percentage is .750.  St. Olaf will likely finish with a regional record of 7-2 (and currently sits at 6-2).  St. Olaf's SOS is 16th in the country.  Neither St. Olaf nor UWEC have any wins over regionally ranked opponents.  So then why, if UWEC has only a 4-2 in region record for a winning percentage of .667, with a lesser SOS than St. Olaf, and no head to head competition or common regional opponents, is UWEC ahead of St. Olaf in the third regional rankings?

Sounds to me that the Committee is using the secondary criteria here, at least in relation to the West region.  That makes sense given the difficulties of travel and nonconference game-finding faced by WIAC/NWC/SCIAC teams.  Should Bethel be rewarded for playing the IIAC schools, who share a smaller student body?  Should UWEC be punished because a MIAC team won't play them? When you examine the secondary criteria, and add back in UWEC's wins over D-2 SW MN St and include their win over potential pool A Alma, seems to me that, head to head, UWEC looks a bit stronger than Bethel.

But that's where I am coming from-- then you consider that UWW's loss at D-2 St. Cloud has not apparently affected them in the regional rankings.  So is the standard that D-2 wins will help, and D-2 losses won't hurt?  That seems to make intuitive sense, but is that a policy we really want to advocate in D3?

[Pat Coleman]

Seems to me you just don't want Bethel in the playoffs.

I don't really know what to make of the rest of it at this point, though.

[johnnie_esq]

Seems to me you just don't want Bethel in the playoffs.

I don't really know what to make of the rest of it at this point, though.

C'mon, another MIAC representative vs. advocating for the WIAC?

I'm just concerned because it seems the committee is lessening the impact of the objective standards and incorporating some subjectivity into the mix in some fashion through the skipping into the secondary criteria.  I don't necessarily mind that, but I would like it to be consistent across all lines.  Of course, I do recognize that would help out the MIAC immensely....

[HScoach]

Isn't great to be discussing which team gets the 32nd bid to the playoffs instead of the 2nd bid like D1-A?

Yeah for D1-AA, D2 and D3!

[Just Bill]

Isn't great to be discussing which team gets the 32nd bid to the playoffs instead of the 2nd bid like D1-A Football Bowl Subdivision?

Yeah for D1-AA Football Championship Subdivision, D2 and D3!

Corrected in order to avoid NCAA sanctions.

[Ralph Turner]

Isn't great to be discussing which team gets the 32nd bid to the playoffs instead of the 2nd bid like D1-A Football Bowl Subdivision?

Yeah for D1-AA Football Championship Subdivision, D2 and D3!

Corrected in order to avoid NCAA sanctions.

"F. B. S." is good enough for me! 

[altor]

North 
9.  North Central (Illinois)  7-2 7-2 
10.  Carthage  7-2 7-2 

For some reason these two really intrigue me since they play each other.  The loser certainly goes off the regional ranking list, but who goes on in place?

I suppose it is IWU if they beat Wheaton.  If they don't, then who does go up?  Certainly not another HCAC or NCAC school.  The MIAA is right out and I doubt CUW is the team.

The OAC seems like the best place to find it...making it ONU or B-W.  B-W plays Capital.  So, a B-W win probably puts them on the list, but does that remove Capital?  If so, you're back to finding another team.

It's unlikely that whatever team it is gets a Pool C bid, but it might make a difference in the "records vs regionally ranked opponents" criteria.