Pool C -- 2007

[TC]

SOS numbers now have a home on the left rail of the front page (and other news pages).

Call me ignorant (or simply correct me if I'm wrong), but for teams that play a round-robin conference schedule, don't their OWP and OOWP automatically trend towards .500, being that any conference game that the team in question doesn't participate in automatically counts as 1 win and 1 loss in their OWP (and their OOWP, as well).

Hypothetical example: Mount Union goes 9-0 in a difficult OAC conference schedule.  Their conference opponents--making up 90% of their schedule, which they really have no control over-- go 36-45 in all conference games, 36-36 in games that Mount Union doesn't participate in.

At the same time, St. Norbert goes 9-0 in the far inferior MWC.  Again, the nine opponents that the conference schedule mandates they play go 36-45 in conference play, 36-36 in games without St. Norbert.

To further this mental exercise, Mount Union schedules Hardin-Simmons for their one non-conference game, thinking they are giving themselves a strenuous test from what they expect to be another top team.  They blow out the Cowboys, who go on to have a disappointing 4-loss season despite their obvious talent.

While Mount Union is hypothetically challenging itself, St. Norbert schedules Northwestern (MN) for their only non-conference game.  The Norbs win in a blowout, but Northwestern finishes the season 8-2 because they play mostly opponents from All-Female institutions.

In this scenario, Mount Union's OWP would be .457 compared to St. Norbert's OWP of .484, even though, subjectively, Mount Union played a much more difficult schedule.  It's not difficult to see how the same problem could arise with OOWP if Mount Union's conference opponent also played teams from strong conferences while St. Norbert's opponents played teams from weak conferences.

To summerize, I guess my issue with OWP/OOWP is that most Pool C teams only have 1 or 2 games to influence that figure, and even then it can be highly misleading.  I'd hate to see St. John's start scheduling UMAC teams rather than WIAC teams for a non-conference game with OWP and OOWP in mind.

Again, I'm sure there are some major issues that I'm missing, and I apologize if my thoughts aren't entirely clear.  

[K-Mack]

Unless I'm missing something, that's mostly true ... which is why OWP/OOWP (or in the past, QoWi) was only one of a set of criteria.

It's also why it makes sense to have people on the committee who can interpret and (properly, we hope) apply the numbers they are looking at.

Again, I go back to the pre-'99 system, where the 16-team field was determined basically in the same manner as the regional rankings. 10-0 guaranteed you nothing.

Each team in Pool C is already on its second chance. In other words, it had its shot at access, which is what the new system guarantees, and where the improvement over the old system lies.

By playing your way into Pool C, you do open yourself up to the quirks of the criteria, but at least there are criteria.

[redswarm81]

Call me ignorant (or simply correct me if I'm wrong), but for teams that play a round-robin conference schedule, don't their OWP and OOWP automatically trend towards .500, being that any conference game that the team in question doesn't participate in automatically counts as 1 win and 1 loss in their OWP (and their OOWP, as well).
 

You're not ignorant, and congratulations for recognizing that SoS/OWP is first of all, nothing more than a (fairly simple) mathematical calculation, and second, it conveys very little information.  SoS is just a number, and it doesn't mean what a lot of people want it to mean, i.e. "we played tougher (or weaker) opponents, so we deserve a boost."  The wins v. ranked opponents, while a flawed statistic, does a better job of approximating that particular tweakage.

I've said it before, the Grand Poobah of any ranking and/or selection criteria is Ws.  Everything else is secondary.

[wally_wabash]

Regional rankings are released. 

I think this is the final piece of the criteria puzzle...let the Pool C prognostication begin! 

[d-train]

Regional rankings are released. 

I think this is the final piece of the criteria puzzle...let the Pool C prognostication begin! 

Redlands looks pretty strong (#6 in the West). I'm not sure that I'd pick them to beat Linfield (#9) or Stevens Point (#10)...but I guess that's not the criteria. They might have to consider moving a 'West' team if SJU and/or Central lose their last game.

[DutchFan2004]

Regional rankings are released. 

I think this is the final piece of the criteria puzzle...let the Pool C prognostication begin! 

Redlands looks pretty strong (#6 in the West). I'm not sure that I'd pick them to beat Linfield (#9) or Stevens Point (#10)...but I guess that's not the criteria. They might have to consider moving a 'West' team if SJU and/or Central lose their last game.

curious what would make them move a West team if one of those teams suffer a loss?

[RFB]

Redlands at Central would be an interesting matchup. Central beat Redlands 20-13 in the first round of the 1990 playoffs.

[Ralph Turner]

I have placed the  highest ranked conference member in bold, and mentioned other key games.  I really don't think that we get a Pool C from any place else.

West Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. UW-Whitewater 6-0 6-1   WIAC
2. St. John's 7-0 8-0              MIAC  At Bethel Nov 10th
3. Central 7-0 8-0                   IIAC
4. Occidental 6-0 6-0               SCIAC
5. St. Norbert 7-0 8-0              MWC
6. Redlands 4-1 5-1                 SCIAC
7. Bethel 6-1 6-1                      MIAC        Hosts St Johns Nov 10th
8. Wartburg 7-1 7-1                  IIAC        Central at Wartburg, Nov 10
9. Linfield 3-1 4-2                                    POOL B NWC  At Whitworth on Nov 3rd.
10. UW-Stevens Point 3-1 6-1  WIAC



East Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Alfred 7-0 7-0                 E8  at Hobart, at Ithaca, at SJF
2. Curry 8-0 8-0                  NEFC  Has NEFC Bowl on Nov 10
3. RPI 6-0 6-0                      LL  At Union Nov 10th
4. St. John Fisher 7-1 7-1     E8             Host Alfred Nov 10th
5. New Jersey (TCNJ) 6-1 6-1           NJAC  Hosts Cortland Oct 27th
6. Albright 6-1 6-1                 MAC  Hosts Del Valley Nov 10th
7. Cortland State 5-1 6-1     NJAC  At TCNJ Oct 27th

8. Union 4-2 4-2                    LL       Hosts Hobart Nov 3rd, Hosts RPI Nov 10th.
9. Hobart 5-2 5-2                   LL     Hosts Alfred Oct 27, at Union Nov 3rd
10. Delaware Valley 4-2 4-3   MAC  At Albright Nov 10th

North Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Mount Union 7-0 7-0         OAC  At Capital Oct 27th
2. Wheaton (Ill.) 7-0 7-0       CCIW  At IWU on Nov 10th
3. Wabash 7-0 7-0                NCAC
4. Case Western Reserve 5-0 7-0           UAA Pool B  Hosts WashU StL Nov 3rd
5. Capital 6-1 6-1                  OAC  Hosts MUC Oct 27th
6. Franklin 6-1 6-1                    HCAC  Hosts Defiance Nov 3rd
7. Mount St. Joseph 6-1 6-1      HCAC

8. Wittenberg 5-2 5-2                NCAC
9. Ohio Northern 5-2 5-2            OAC
10. Illinois Wesleyan 5-2 5-2        CCIW  Hosts Wheaton Nov 10*

(Not represented are the Pool A conferences, IBC and MIAA)

South Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 7-0   ASC       at UW-W October 27th
2. Washington and Jefferson 5-0 7-0       Pres AC   At Waynesburg Oct 27th
3. Salisbury 4-0 8-0                                    Pool B  at  Wesley Oct 27th
4. Wesley 5-1 7-1                                    Pool B        Hosts Salisbury Oct 27th
5. Muhlenberg 7-0 7-0                CC
6. Waynesburg 6-0 7-0              Pres AC        Hosts W&J Oct 27th
7. Millsaps 6-1 6-1                      SCAC            Hosts Trinity Oct 27th
8. Trinity (Texas) 5-1 6-1             SCAC             At Millsaps Oct 27th
9. Washington U. 6-1 6-1             UAA    Pool B  At CWRU Nov 3rd
10. Bridgewater (Va.) 6-1 6-1     ODAC

(Not represented is the Pool A conference, USAC)


*Tip of the hat to Mr Ypsi.

[d-train]

Regional rankings are released. 

I think this is the final piece of the criteria puzzle...let the Pool C prognostication begin! 

Redlands looks pretty strong (#6 in the West). I'm not sure that I'd pick them to beat Linfield (#9) or Stevens Point (#10)...but I guess that's not the criteria. They might have to consider moving a 'West' team if SJU and/or Central lose their last game.

curious what would make them move a West team if one of those teams suffer a loss?

They don't neccassarily pick 8 per region. They take the Pool A's and select the best Pool B and Pool C teams nationally. If Wartburg and Bethel win (earning their conference's Pool A bids), Central and SJU will join Redlands and UW-SP as strong Pool C candidates (assuming no other losses). Also, the winner of Whitworth-Linfield will be a strong Pool B candidate (also assuming no other losses). That brings up the possibility of more then 8 'West region' teams getting bids. Perhaps sending a WIAC team or St. Norbert to the 'North' or Redlands somewhere.

[Ralph Turner]

I really think that the NWC, especially Whitworth, is on the deep bubble.

Look at how many one loss teams are rated higher across the division.

The NWC is looking at the 3rd Pool B bid, but probably more importantly, the 7th Pool C bid (10th at-large bid overall).  I give a 30-70 chance, with 3 weeks left and some upsets occurring in those tight conference races remaining, that the NWC stays home this year.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph, I'm shocked (shocked , I tell you!) that you didn't include Wheaton AT IWU among the key remaining games.

Once we knock them off, there goes a pool C!

[Though I confess, if I'm in the running on the pickems, I may have to hold my nose and pick Wheaton. ]

[d-train]

I really think that the NWC, especially Whitworth, is on the deep bubble.

Look at how many one loss teams are rated higher across the division.

The NWC is looking at the 3rd Pool B bid, but probably more importantly, the 7th Pool C bid (10th at-large bid overall).  I give a 30-70 chance, with 3 weeks left and some upsets occurring in those tight conference races remaining, that the NWC stays home this year.

I guess we'll see. I just don't see the winner of Linfield-Whitworth sitting at home (assuming they win their other games as well). I think just enough 'at large' teams will get that dreaded second loss hung on 'em. But you're right, wins by teams like Bethel, Wartburg, Wesley, and Washington Univ. could hurt the NWC's chances quite a bit. It'd be interesting to know if Whitworth is the mythical #11 in the West.

[RFB]

What if Linfield won out and got seeded 8th in the West? They would have to be the scariest 8th seed that the playoffs have seen in a long time.

[downtown48]

I wouldn't describe Linfield as scary yet...if they get the offense on track and the D keeps playing lights out...then...SCARY! 

I will say the offense has been moving the ball fine lately, they just get mistake prone in the Red Zone. Clean that up and watch out!!

It looks like Bethel or Wartburg would have to lose for Linfield to slide into #7 or #8.  As long as they BOTH don't pull of the big upsets on Nov. 10 and Linfield wins out...Linfield should be fine (Nov. 3 is no gimme').  

[TC]

What if Linfield won out and got seeded 8th in the West? They would have to be the scariest 8th seed that the playoffs have seen in a long time.

Since the 8th seed has only existed for 2--right?--years, I'd imagine you are correct.  But don't forget that in 1999 and 2000 the last seed in the West (7th at the time) made the Stagg Bowl, with Pacific Lutheran winning it all in '99 and St. John's falling a FG short against Mount Union in 2000.

That said, Linfield at #8 would really show the depth of the West.