Post-season geography and style of play

[Major Rev]

Any comments on the effects of northern November weather on successful styles of play in the postseason?  Is there any evidence that spread type offenses tend to break down in more frigid temperatures and northern locales thus affecting playoff success?  Do the teams with playoff longevity show a distinct tendency toward a strong ground game and a stifling defense?

[Ralph Turner]

Any comments on the effects of northern November weather on successful styles of play in the post-season?

Yes, warm weather teams have trouble up north.  Concerning the Deep South, ETBU lost in OT at Lycoming in 2003 in near freezing weather.  UMHB with its ground game was able to defeat MUC in Ohio in 2004. Wesley lost twice at UW-Whitewater (in 2005 on the ice, and in 2006 without the ice).  The longest runs by (Deep) South Region teams have occurred when they were the #1 seeds, except UMHB.


Is there any evidence that spread type offenses tend to break down in more frigid temperatures and northern locales thus affecting playoff success?

The last Stagg Champion from the South Region was West Georgia in 1982 in a championship game played in Phenix City AL ("a suburb of Columbus, GA").


Do the teams with playoff longevity show a distinct tendency toward a strong ground game and a stifling defense?

Yes, but real offensive balance may be necessary in a tight game, e.g., WR Pierre Garcon for MUC in the 2006 Stagg.  IMHO

[smedindy]

I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! 

[Ron Boerger]

I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! 

Global warming.   

[Ralph Turner]

I wouldn't call Wesley the DEEP south. It gets cold in Delaware, ya know! 

But not as cold a Wisconsin!!!

I think that Jethro Pugh finally thawed out last season. 

[smedindy]

Ah, yes, but the coldest ambient temp at an NFL game was in Cincinnati (-59 with the wind chill). The Ice Bowl had a colder temperature, but not the wind.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freezer_Bowl

Not that it means anything, but, just wanted to drop the knowledge.

Canadian teams laugh at our Wisconsin cold sob stories, you know! 

[HScoach]

Offensive balance is nice as it is somewhat weather proof, but MUC's first 3 titles came with pass only offenses.  The running game back then was a complete after thought and consisted of draw plays just to keep the D-line honest.

Capital has made the North Region finals in '05 and '06 (and lost to MUC by 3 pts both times) with a pass only spread offense.

[K-Mack]

Given that, let's say 85%, of D3 is based on cold-weather or moderately-cold states, I don't think weather is a big factor in relation to how teams perform against each other in the playoffs. (Obviously in an individual game it can be a factor, and it can have a greater impact on certain styles offense, sure)

The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.

I disagree with Ralph on warm-weather teams having trouble up north.

Also, I wouldn't consider Wesley's climate to be much different than, say, New York or New Jersey. It snows there. Not terribly different from Wisconsin, although an icy field bothered the Wolverines one trip out there. That happens though.

UMHB made that 5-road-game run to the Stagg in '04 with wins in Pa. and Ohio, the latter in snow.

Hardin-Simmons lost by 1 at Wittenberg years ago, 34-33 I think. Occidental lost a couple times at Linfield.

Although it's a pretty small sample size, the results of warm-weather D3 teams vs. cold-weather teams have more to do with the quality of the teams than the weather.

Hope that answers the original question. If you care to re-ask it with a twist, I will respond.

[Ralph Turner]

Wittenberg beat HSU in Abilene.

I don't consider western Oregon as being a "cold" weather climate relative to the Midwest.  How much snowfall per annum does McMinnville get?

The Wesley comment was because of the "sneaker bowl".

It is a very small sample size.   

[K-Mack]

In Abilene? Even better.

My memory fails me on the "early years" sometimes.

I guess if we wanted to mince, Ralph, I'd say that snow doesn't necessarily = cold, but that with most of D3 being no further south than Virginia, which is a medium climate at best (Northeast Lite), I wouldn't expect it to have a great effect on how used to cold the players are.

I would expect the Texas and Cali guys to notice the difference, but we have seen some of them play well on the road (Oxy at Conc.-Moorhead in '04 was played in the Fargo Dome, I think, or I'd count that one too)

The original question, I guess being more about styles than native locales ... well, as noted, spread teams have had success in the playoffs.

Having played in the cold and never worn gloves (nor had a pick after Week 6), I can say that severe cold has an effect on games. Football is weird for how it begins in sweltering heat and ends in cold. The Stagg Bowl is usually chilly and windy.

Obviously, most of us have seen rain, snow, ice, wind or all of these things have an effect on football games, particularly passing and the kicking game (King's at Bridgewater comes to mind).

Generally though, in my time observing, the success of playoff teams in Division III has almost overwhelmingly been due to the strength of the teams involved and their play on particular days in question rather than factors like home/away, warm weather/cold weather, etc.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks, K-Mack!

[Major Rev]

How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!

The original question comes out of the 1975 (that's right - 1975) Millsaps playoff experience.  Having travelled with that team to play Colorado College in the quarters and Wittenburg in the semis, we saw two very different venues.  At CC, in Colorado Springs, the high for the day was 37 F.  We had practiced in 6 inches of snow the day before, but on game day it looked like the field had been vacuumed!  The grounds crew had done an amazing job of creating a tremendous playing surface.  Millsaps had All-American Ricky Haygood at QB who had broken 2000 yards in passing for the year  (amazing back then) and WR Dees Hinton who had broken 1000.  Colorado College was running an old-time wing-T offense which few players of the time had ever seen.  And they had run it well that year.  Millsaps wins 28-14 I think.

At Wittenburg it was a different story.  Temperatures were in the high thirties again, but with melting snow on the field and snow/rain mix during the game.  Wittenburg's ground game led by freshman David ? DOMINATED the Majors who never found "traction" on the field in about 4 inches of mud or in the game, going down 41-0 at halftime.  There was some talk that Wittenburg had prepared for the muddy game with "mud cleats" and played "downhill" all afternoon.  Wittenburg was merciful, though, and the game ended 55-21.

Back to the present -- does a South Region spread offense team like Millsaps or even a slightly more balanced team like Trinity or Mississippi College have as much chance in the playoffs as a crushing ground game/defensive team?  I know that Mount Union is obviously off the charts in comparison to everyone else, but would an even EQUALLY talented spread offense team always be playing uphill in late November up north?

THUS is the field "tilted" toward the ground game?

[Knightstalker]

I believe Rowan has run the spread very successfully for several years and they have been known to go deep into the playoffs.

[HScoach]

I hate to answer questions with "depends", but in this case I think you have to.  The question of weather and field conditions helping/hurting certain styles of play is really two separate factors.  So when you say 'bad weather', do you literally mean just the weather factors (wind, rain, snow, temp)? Or more in general terms?

Because in my opinion, bad weather conditions versus bad field conditions affect the game differently.

In sloppy field conditions but decent weather, a passing offense a distinct advantage as the WR's know where they're going where as the DB's must react to the route.  Advantage WR.  Also, it's hard to get much push at the line of scrimmage in poor field conditions which makes rushing the passer more difficult, especially off the edge. 

For the running offense, it comes down to the type of rush offense and specifically the type of runner.  A speed/slashing type runner or complicated rush offense like the triple option would be at a disadvantage on a sloppy field.   A power running game with simple blocking schemes (zone blocking) and a power RB like Whitewater would be better suited to a muddy field than a rushing team that runs a lot of misdirection or option like Springfield.  I've also seen the effectiveness of the O-line in muddy conditions be dependent on the size/type of O-linemen.  Having a distinct size advantage on a sloppy field helps since the blocking schemes tend to be more base/zone blocking anyway.  Whereas a smaller but very athletic line like Augustana often has wouldn't get the same surge and trapping production they would normally get on a good field.

What kills a passing offense is very high winds and/or rain.  Intense cold can also have an adverse impact if you're not used to it.  Where as the weather really is no affect on running the ball.

In general, the actual playing surface conditions usually affect a running team more than a passing team.  Where as the weather usually affects the passing game more. 

How's that for tap dancing around the question?

[smedindy]

I have always thought that weather is a convenient excuse if you get outplayed in the cold or the muck.