Post-season geography and style of play

[Major Rev]

Thanks, hscoach, for some excellent tap dancing.  Sounds like you've been through a lot of those conditions.  The breakdown on the different types of running teams was also helpful.

What kills a passing offense is very high winds and/or rain.  Intense cold can also have an adverse impact if you're not used to it.  Where as the weather really is no affect on running the ball.

In general, the actual playing surface conditions usually affect a running team more than a passing team.  Where as the weather usually affects the passing game more. 

I found these to be the most helpful statements in general.  I also think some other posts on the various topics about footwear in adverse conditions is true.  Though it sounds almost trivial, the thought given to details like that can separate good programs from average ones.

The info about different specific teams was informative.  That's one thing I'm really enjoying here on the message board is learning about conferences, regions, and teams.  Thanks; good info.

I also thought smedindy's post about "convenient excuses" can be true as well.  But my question has to do with equally talented spread and ground offenses.

PUSHING THIS FURTHER, K'MACK, any additional thoughts on the effects on DEFENSE beyond the comments about d-backs?

[reality check]

The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.

Keith

I actually broke down NCAA representation for all levels to present to some of the kids in my program with regards to playing beyond high school to show them that AZ has little to offer but there was plenty of opportunity to play college football AND get a great college education.

My numbers (which may be off but should give an idea) for D-III are: PA - 24, OH - 21, IL - 21, MA - 19, WI - 18, MN - 13, NY - 12, CA/IN/TX/VA - 9.  There's your top eleven.  Looks like a pretty cool climate grouping with a few exceptions.  Until CA/TX and arguably VA you have almost 130 schools representing those first 7 states.  I don't know if it helps much but there ya go.

Just looking at Stagg Bowls, and trying to discount the fact that MUC havily tilts the percentages in their run, the other competitors are decidedly "northern" schools as well with the exceptions of UMHB, Trinity, Bridgewater (I still say they're warm compared to the rest) and W Georgia, it's been pretty sparse.

[Ron Boerger]

RC, if you look at the distribution of schools in D3, I think you'll find this pretty much mirrors where all the schools are.  There just aren't many D3 football schools outside of the "colder" climates.

[Knightstalker]

Could the reverse be true of cold weather teams going to warm weather to play? 
Especially in the beginning of the season.  When teams like Miami used to always wear white at home to force visiting teams to wear dark colors in the heat.

[TC]

I would expect the Texas and Cali guys to notice the difference, but we have seen some of them play well on the road (Oxy at Conc.-Moorhead in '04 was played in the Fargo Dome, I think, or I'd count that one too)

I wrote a long post yesterday about the Concordia/Oxy game, but I deleted it because it didn't really go anywhere.  Suffice to say, moving the game indoors could not have helped the Cobbers and their exotic running attack in a game they lost by two points on a late missed 2-point conversion.  I'll never understand why the Concordia administration didn't do everything in their power to keep that game outdoors in the snow, ice, and cold. 





What about St. John's?  Collegeville is certainly a cold weather site, but if the weather isn't absolutely perfect (too hot, too cold, too wet, too many bugs, the threat of becoming too any-one-of-those-things, etc.) they famously move practice inside.  Do they still reap the "cold weather" benefits?   

[section13raiderfan]

One more thought related to weather. D3 football is known for its dearth of reliable kickers. Few teams would trust their fate to a field goal attempt in a playoff situation in anything but optimal conditions. Except maybe MUC. We see evidence of this in most Stagg Bowls. Teams come well prepared in every phase of the game except field goal kicking. And it has cost some teams the trophy IMHO. Most D3 stadiums are not ideal for kicking anyways. Too open, and subject to unpredictable wind patterns. This just makes a reliable kicker all the more valuable at this level. But they are hard to find in D3.

[repete]

Yeah, I always thought  Rodney Chenos should have played at a d-2 school .... or anywhere other than MUC 

I've seen SJU at three Staggs and two of them have been decided by last second FGs -- one each way.

[Pat Coleman]

Repete: You should make the drive up to Towson and rub that 1976 title in their faces.

[repete]

Ha! Neighbor's daughter goes there .... I might have mentioned it.

[K-Mack]

How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!

You are welcome, but in the interest of full disclosure, I work til 2 a.m., so answering your question at 1:54 is more like a normal person playing out the string at 4:54 but not really wanting to leave his/her desk until 5, even if there's no more work to do that day

[Major Rev]

Still no comments related to weather's effects on defenses?  My guess is that it is an "equalizer", typically slowing the whole game down, but also creating more problems for speed and stunting oriented defenses?

[K-Mack]

The states most populated with D3 teams are (in no particular order): Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New York. After that, probably Indiana, Iowa, Virginia ... I haven't done the math in a while, but basically what I'm saying is, outside of small pockets in Southern California and Texas and scattered schools in "The South," Divisiion III is more or less a cold-weather phenomenon.

Keith

I actually broke down NCAA representation for all levels to present to some of the kids in my program with regards to playing beyond high school to show them that AZ has little to offer but there was plenty of opportunity to play college football AND get a great college education.

My numbers (which may be off but should give an idea) for D-III are: PA - 24, OH - 21, IL - 21, MA - 19, WI - 18, MN - 13, NY - 12, CA/IN/TX/VA - 9.  There's your top eleven.  Looks like a pretty cool climate grouping with a few exceptions.  Until CA/TX and arguably VA you have almost 130 schools representing those first 7 states.  I don't know if it helps much but there ya go.

Just looking at Stagg Bowls, and trying to discount the fact that MUC havily tilts the percentages in their run, the other competitors are decidedly "northern" schools as well with the exceptions of UMHB, Trinity, Bridgewater (I still say they're warm compared to the rest) and W Georgia, it's been pretty sparse.

Yeah, I did the numbers breakdown in an early ATN column, but I wasn't sure how much things had changed since then. Those numbers look about right though.

Bridgewater is not a warm place to play in October or early November. It's probably the coldest/windiest place I ever played. Given that playing experience and the experience of living in Va. for several years, as well as N.J. and Mass., I'd say there are climate differences between the three places, but not to the extent they would affect this discussion.

Virginia is not a "southern" climate in that it fails to get cold in the second half of the season. It does, and snow is not really common, but it's not an impossibility. The Stagg Bowl is generally windy and fairly cold, if not freezing.

If you look closely at a map, Virginia is actually pretty close to places with more "northern" reputations like New Jersey and Ohio. For climate purposes, I'd group it closer to the north. Culturally, however, beyond the D.C suburbs/Northern Virginia, they really believe it's the south.

We do have a "Google map" in development to help visualize the location of D3 schools. I think the part we're stuck on now is sorting football from basketball from baseball, but it's been a while since I've seen it, can't say I have a spot-on recollection.

[Knightstalker]

I would have to say that the Climate in VA, even in the southern portion around Norfolk and VA Beach is comparable to southern Jersey.  And maybe 5 degrees warmer than Northern Jersey.  If it was snowing where I grew up in Jersey it would be just warm enough to be rain in Norfolk, Just wet cold and nasty in the winter.

[K-Mack]

How thankful I am that you guys are up till all hours handling my feeble questions!

The original question comes out of the 1975 (that's right - 1975) Millsaps playoff experience.  Having travelled with that team to play Colorado College in the quarters and Wittenburg in the semis, we saw two very different venues.  At CC, in Colorado Springs, the high for the day was 37 F.  We had practiced in 6 inches of snow the day before, but on game day it looked like the field had been vacuumed!  The grounds crew had done an amazing job of creating a tremendous playing surface.  Millsaps had All-American Ricky Haygood at QB who had broken 2000 yards in passing for the year  (amazing back then) and WR Dees Hinton who had broken 1000.  Colorado College was running an old-time wing-T offense which few players of the time had ever seen.  And they had run it well that year.  Millsaps wins 28-14 I think.

At Wittenburg it was a different story.  Temperatures were in the high thirties again, but with melting snow on the field and snow/rain mix during the game.  Wittenburg's ground game led by freshman David ? DOMINATED the Majors who never found "traction" on the field in about 4 inches of mud or in the game, going down 41-0 at halftime.  There was some talk that Wittenburg had prepared for the muddy game with "mud cleats" and played "downhill" all afternoon.  Wittenburg was merciful, though, and the game ended 55-21.

Back to the present -- does a South Region spread offense team like Millsaps or even a slightly more balanced team like Trinity or Mississippi College have as much chance in the playoffs as a crushing ground game/defensive team?  I know that Mount Union is obviously off the charts in comparison to everyone else, but would an even EQUALLY talented spread offense team always be playing uphill in late November up north?

THUS is the field "tilted" toward the ground game?

Well,
I just noticed this post, +1 for the history lesson.

One factor in the how much the weather will affect games is the increasing number of teams who have "new-style" turf on campus, where most of the playoff games will be played. The Stagg Bowl has made the switch as well.

So in one sense, weather will always affect games (wet balls, the way hits feel in the cold and the way the ball hitting raw hands feels in the cold, wind and rain affecting the passing game, etc.).

In another sense, turf (although I'm sure it plays differently wet, I've got no personal experience as to how) has negated some of the effects of weather, in terms of muddy parts of the field, perhaps ice, the old "offense knows where it's going but defense is slower to react" theory, the change in game plans due to that, etc.

Perhaps it's an interesting discussion to have since I have provided no clear answers 

[Knightstalker]

I think we need the input of current or recently former players who have played on new style turf in various weather conditions.