2007 Playoff Field

[Rick Akins]

Thanks for the insights. I understand if you look at the last regional rankings it all makes sense, but I am still not convinced how those regional rankings themselves exactly can be totally quantified even using all the designated criteria.

[labart96]

I actually think that Ithaca, the #8 seed in the MUC bracket might have been the 32nd.  Have we heard otherwise?  I find it hard to believe that Whitworth was not the 10th best at-large team in D3.

Are the Strength of Schedule calculations inherently disadvantageous to or discriminate against geographically isolated conferences such as the ASC, the NWC and the SCIAC?

Look at how the Empire 8 and the Liberty League were able to get 3 of the 7 Pool C bids.  The E8 and the LL are small conferences (7 members) but more importantly, there are numerous conferences in the area against which to get non-conference games that will boost the SOS (OWP and OOWP).  Those schools can get favorable in-region match-ups against the Centennial, the NJAC, the MAC and even the Pres AC and ACFC.

I hope that the NCAA will look at this discrepancy.

Interesting point.  I noticed that Dickinson (8-2) and who beat Hobart (albeit on a couple of flukely plays) in Week 1, ended up in an ECAC game and not a Pool C like Hobart did.

BTW - LL does have 8 teams, although you could argue that the bottom 1/3 of the league is pretty weak (making it kind of like a 7 team conference).

[smedindy]

Thanks for the insights. I understand if you look at the last regional rankings it all makes sense, but I am still not convinced how those regional rankings themselves exactly can be totally quantified even using all the designated criteria.

Any system that has a Curry ranked up that high has flaws and holes in it, but it is what it is...

[smedindy]

I actually think that Ithaca, the #8 seed in the MUC bracket might have been the 32nd.  Have we heard otherwise?  I find it hard to believe that Whitworth was not the 10th best at-large team in D3.

Are the Strength of Schedule calculations inherently disadvantageous to or discriminate against geographically isolated conferences such as the ASC, the NWC and the SCIAC?

Look at how the Empire 8 and the Liberty League were able to get 3 of the 7 Pool C bids.  The E8 and the LL are small conferences (7 members) but more importantly, there are numerous conferences in the area against which to get non-conference games that will boost the SOS (OWP and OOWP).  Those schools can get favorable in-region match-ups against the Centennial, the NJAC, the MAC and even the Pres AC and ACFC.

I hope that the NCAA will look at this discrepancy.

Interesting point.  I noticed that Dickinson (8-2) and who beat Hobart (albeit on a couple of flukely plays) in Week 1, ended up in an ECAC game and not a Pool C like Hobart did.

Dickinson wasn't regionally ranked, though. The Johns Hopkins loss killed their chances of jumping Millsaps or Waynesburg.

I don't think the SOS calcs go against the ASC, NWC and the SCIAC because they can play the game to their own advantage, too. It really hurts LARGE conferences like the OAC more.

[Pat Coleman]

You picked your Pool Cs in almost the exact same order we did, smed, for what it's worth.

[repete]

So excuse me for my cluelessness -- I've got d3fb.com sensory overload -- but does that mean UWEC wasn't the last C in? Did it not come down to Whitworth vs. UWEC for the last spot?

I know I've seen it somewhere, but can't recall if it was board speculation or the poohbah's truth ...

Thanks.

[Ralph Turner]

Let's look at it this way - when it comes to Pool C, the top ranked contenders in each region (for assumptions sake based on Nov. 7 rankings and the results on Saturday):

East - St. John Fisher
North - MSJ
South - Millsaps
West - St. John's

Taking SJF and St. John's with the first two picks (easy) leaves:

East - Hobart
North - MSJ
South - Millsaps
West - Eau Claire (!) (I have to assume they jumped Whitworth, right??)

So, I bet Hobart's the pick. Leaving:

East - Ithaca
North - MSJ
South - Millsaps
West - Eau Claire

MSJ is the logical choice there.

Now the board is:

East - Ithaca
North - Capital
South - Millsaps
West - Eau Claire

I'd choose Capital.

East - Ithaca
North - Wittenberg
South - Millsaps
West - Eau Claire

I would assume Eau Claire is next. The final board:

East - Ithaca
North - Wittenberg
South - Millsaps
West - Whitworth

Now here's the $64,000 question. These are all 8 or 9 in their regions, I assume. Why Ithaca instead of Whitworth or Witt or Millsaps?

Smed, if UW-EC is given a "C", then I give Whitworth the 7th Pool C bid.  Whitworth goes into the "West".  Olivet goes back to the "North". Widener goes into the "East".

[smedindy]

Ralph - Whitworth or Millsaps? See that's a tough call.

Repete - Yeah, based on how I sketched it out, UWEC wasn't the last one in the pool. I'd have to think Ithaca was.

[Pat Coleman]

It was certainly one or the other: Eau Claire or Ithaca. The NCAA doesn't usually tell us who the last one in is but I cited UWEC as the last one in the bracket on TV because they were the last one in the order in which we revealed them.

[Ralph Turner]

...
I don't think the SOS calcs go against the ASC, NWC and the SCIAC because they can play the game to their own advantage, too. It really hurts LARGE conferences like the OAC more.

The ASC is a 9-member conference.

McMurry traveled 628 miles to Huntingdon to play the fifth closest D opponent in distance to the campus.  (Only Austin College, Trinity, Millsaps and Rhodes are closer.)  The SCAC will be a 9-team conference (when B-SC is a 3rd-year provisional in 2009).  Trinity, Austin College and Millsaps cannot absorb all of the 18 non-conference games that the ASC needs to schedule.

--Trinity can schedule Texas Lutheran (40 miles away) and one other ASC next year.  --Millsaps can schedule Miss Coll and Louisiana College (180 miles away).
-- Austin College can pick from any of the ASC teams.  They also picked up a "patsy" in NAIA Southwestern Assemblies in 2007.
--Rhodes probably prefers to play Washington StL.

Those are your closest teams to the ASC.

Our OWP and  OOWP settle in at mediocrity or slightly below.

The only way that HSU and UMHB have solved their problem is to commit $40K-$50K per year on one flight to another opponent.  That single game expense exceeds the annual travel budgets for more than half of the teams in D3!

I don't see how we can ever get the advantages of multiple above-average teams in multiple above-average conferences to really boost the OWP and OOWP that are available in other parts of the country.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph - Whitworth or Millsaps? See that's a tough call.

I could make that call because Whitworth went undefeated thru a good conference and lost to the #5 team in the first week.  In-region 7-1 is as aggressive a schedule at they could reasonably have in the NWC.  They schedule the home-and-home with UW-Stout for '06 and '07.

These are inflammatory words, but I think that Ithaca got the old "eastern bias".   Three from the E8, and none from the NWC! 

[Spence]

I don't post on football much, but someone mentioned the Ohio playoff system, which I find well pretty mediocre.

I'm from the downstate of Ohio, and it's become pretty obvious to me that the way to beat the system is to play teams with good records against weak competition. This can be further qualified to mean "schools from West Virginia." One school went 10-0, playing half their schedule against WV schools, and then got beat something like 80-0 in the first round of the playoffs playing a real team. Granted this school only has like 80 boys, but still.

This phenomena exists in D-III selections (across many sports) as well, but the Ohio system wouldn't eliminate it by any means and might make the system easier to game.

That said, if betting were legal I'd have money on whoever is playing Case.

[smedindy]

Ralph - Whitworth or Millsaps? See that's a tough call.

These are inflammatory words, but I think that Ithaca got the old "eastern bias".   Three from the E8, and none from the NWC! 

I don't want to argue that point. I personally would have chosen Whitworth or Millsaps or Witt ahead of Ithaca. But what do I know? I'm just an ex-pat Hoosier...

[bashbrother]

Playoff weather looks pretty good for Saturday.


Mount Union Bracket

8. Ithaca at 1. Mount Union - Cloudy – 30% chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 40s.
6. New Jersey at 4. RPI  - Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s.
7. Hartwick at 3. Curry  - Mostly sunny. 30% chance of showers in the pm. Highs in the mid 40s.
5. Hobart at 2. St. John Fisher -Partly sunny - 40% chance of rain or snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Central Bracket

8. Olivet at 1. Central  - Partly cloudy. Highs upper 40s.
5. Redlands at 4. St. John's  - Mostly clear. Highs around 35.
6. UW-Eau Claire at 3. St. Norbert (10-0) - Partly sunny. Highs lower 40s.
7. Concordia, Wis. at 2. Bethel  - Partly cloudy - Highs around 40.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket

8. N.C. Wesleyan at 1. Wash. & Jeff.  - Mostly cloudy -50% chance of rain or snow showers. Highs low 40's
6. Trinity, Texas at 4. Mary Hardin-Baylor - Partly sunny - 20% chance of showers. Highs mid 70s.
5. Salisbury at 3. Muhlenberg  - Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
7. Hampden-Sydney at 2. Wesley - Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.

UW-Whitewater Bracket     

7. Capital at 1 UW-Whitewater  - Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
5. North Central at 4. Franklin  - Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
6. Mt. St. Joseph at 3. Wabash  - Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
8. Widener at 2. Case Western Reserve  - Cloudy – 40% chance of rain showers. Highs mid 40s.

[ADL70]

Spence--It's clear you don't post (or read) on football much.

FYI last year's UAA champ CMU  beat the SCAC champ in the playoffs and CWRU (a 5-5 team) beat the ODAC champ in the regular season.

The UAA isn't as weak as some folks think.  But if Whalen can't play I wouldn't bet on them either.