MBB: Centennial Conference

[Gabriel]

Mules blew that one.  They did a great job on Hayk until the last two minutes.  Announcer said three shots and 9 points.  How did he get to be so open? Clearly they should have gone back to a man defense when they did not want to allow any threes.  Muhlenberg's strategy down the stretch was really questionable in my mind.  Everyone, including the Dips knew they were going to clear out for Killing.  With shooters like Curry and Stravetski-----why force it with Killing---especially with Porter guarding him? 

[DMJSports]

Here is an interesting insight on how individuals impact a team's performance.  The following analysis is not based on individual stats, but compares team performance with individual players in and out of the lineup.  This is an objective analysis using actual data from every game played by Centennial Conference teams this season.  Based on this comprehensive analysis, the following players are making the most positive impact on their respective team:

Dickinson: ADAM HONIG speeds up the game and therefore improves Dickinson's scoring rate by 13.3ppg but also allows opponent scoring rate to increase by 2.3ppg - a net gain of 11.0ppg.   GERRY WIXTED (10.2ppg) and CHRIS BARSANTI (6.1ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Franklin and Marshall: HAYK GYOKCHYAN speeds up the game and therefore improves Franklin and Marshall's scoring rate by 12.1ppg but also allows opponent scoring rate to increase by 2.4ppg - a net gain of 9.7ppg. 

Gettysburg: ALEX ZURN does a nice job of not only improving Gettysburg's scoring rate by 1.9ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 7.3ppg - a net gain of 9.1ppg.   CHRISTIAN BORS (5.7ppg) also makes a strong positive impact.

Haverford: BRETT COHEN does a nice job of not only improving Haverford's scoring rate by 13.3ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 4.0ppg - a net gain of 17.3ppg.   CAM BAKER (11.0ppg) and JAMES LEVINE (10.2ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Johns Hopkins: JIMMY HAMMER speeds up the game and therefore improves Johns Hopkins's scoring rate by 19.0ppg but also allows opponent scoring rate to increase by 4.3ppg - a net gain of 14.8ppg.   GEORGE BUGARINOVIC (10.0ppg) and CONNOR MCINTYRE (5.4ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

McDaniel: JIMMY CRANWELL does a nice job of not only improving McDaniel's scoring rate by 4.0ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 4.1ppg - a net gain of 8.1ppg.   NIC MARTIN (5.6ppg) also makes a strong positive impact.

Muhlenberg: MALIQUE KILLING does a nice job of not only improving Muhlenberg's scoring rate by 12.3ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 2.2ppg - a net gain of 14.5ppg.   JAMES ALBANO (14.5ppg) and MATT O'HARA (11.3ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Swarthmore: KARL BARKLEY does a nice job of not only improving Swarthmore's scoring rate by 7.0ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 4.2ppg - a net gain of 11.2ppg.   JAY KOBER (8.2ppg), JORDAN FEDERER (6.7ppg), JOE KEEDY (5.7ppg) and WILL GATES (5.7ppg) also make a strong positive impact.

Ursinus: JESSE KRASNA does a nice job of not only improving Ursinus's scoring rate by 8.7ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 5.0ppg - a net gain of 13.7ppg.   RYAN ADAMS (7.5ppg) also makes a strong positive impact.

Washington College: SEAN BROOKS does a nice job of not only improving Washington College's scoring rate by 5.2ppg but also reducing opponent scoring rate by 3.5ppg - a net gain of 8.7ppg.   DAVE KNOX (8.4ppg),  PAT MORGAN (6.6ppg) and STEPHEN POARCH (4.9ppg) also make a strong positive impact.


On the lighter side, focusing on secondary goals (team stats other than the primary objective - outscoring opponents).  Following are players making the most positive impact in these areas:

Team scoring: the presence of JIMMY HAMMER correlates to Johns Hopkins increasing its scoring rate by 19.0 ppg.

Opponent scoring: the presence of MATT O'HARA correlates to Muhlenberg decreasing opposition scoring rate by 9.7 ppg.

Team field goal percentage: the presence of BRETT COHEN correlates to Haverford increasing its field goal percentage rate by 13.8 percentage points.

Opponent field goal percentage: the presence of MALIQUE KILLING correlates to Muhlenberg decreasing opposition field goal percentage rate by 6.5 percentage points.  DAVE KNOX-Washington College (6.4) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team field goals made: the presence of BRETT COHEN correlates to Haverford increasing its field goals made rate by 8.3 per game.

Opponent field goals made: the presence of CAM BAKER correlates to Haverford decreasing opposition field goals made rate by 4.0 per game.  PAT MORGAN-Washington College (3.9) also makes a strong positive impact.

Team offensive rebounds: the presence of CHRISTIAN BORS correlates to Gettysburg increasing its offensive rebounds rate by 2.9 per game.  MALIK DRAPER-Ursinus (2.8), ADAM HONIG-Dickinson (2.7), ALEC STAVETSKI-Muhlenberg (2.7) also make a strong positive impact.

Opponent offensive rebounds: the presence of BRETT COHEN correlates to Haverford decreasing opposition offensive rebounds rate by 5.6 per game.

Team turnovers: the presence of JIMMY HAMMER correlates to Johns Hopkins decreasing its turnovers rate by 6.4 per game.

Opponent turnovers: the presence of BRETT COHEN correlates to Haverford increasing opposition turnovers rate by 5.6 per game.

Team steals: the presence of BRETT COHEN correlates to Haverford increasing its steals rate by 5.7 per game.

Team assists: the presence of MALIQUE KILLING correlates to Muhlenberg increasing its assists rate by 5.9 per game.

Team defensive rebounds: the presence of MALIQUE KILLING correlates to Muhlenberg increasing its defensive rebounds rate by 7.1 per game.

[Swat Fan #1]

How in the world does F&M beat Dickenson 64-34 just last week and get beat 64-40 tonight? That is a 54 point turn-around! Really strange! Would love to hear from those who were there about the game!

[njf1003]

How in the world does F&M beat Dickenson 64-34 just last week and get beat 64-40 tonight? That is a 54 point turn-around! Really strange! Would love to hear from those who were there about the game!

If you take what happened last week and reverse it you would have a pretty good understanding.
F&M was relying too heavily on trying to make 3s and then didn't get any rebounds.

Anyhow, congrats to Dickinson, make a run in the NCAAs for the Centennial!

[Swat Fan #1]

Will F&M get an NCAA at Large bid? I hope so as it would be a shame that it would end for those great seniors.

[mailsy]

Will F&M get an NCAA at Large bid? I hope so as it would be a shame that it would end for those great seniors.

Probably not. But anything is possible.  If you look in the pool C board you'll see a pretty updated breakdown of teams that will be pool c. Plus there are to many teams ahead of them in the MidAtlantic regional rankings that lost that are ahead of them.

[Gabriel]

DMJSports,

Interesting analysis.  Thanks for sharing.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Will F&M get an NCAA at Large bid? I hope so as it would be a shame that it would end for those great seniors.

I would be pretty shocked if they did. That low in the regional rankings in any region is out of at-large contention, usually.

[r.w. mcnickels]

How in the world does F&M beat Dickenson 64-34 just last week and get beat 64-40 tonight? That is a 54 point turn-around! Really strange! Would love to hear from those who were there about the game!

A week ago Dickinson appeared to be rattled by the raucous environment in Mayser. Last night the Devils played with a chip on their shoulder, and F&M responded with little energy. All the bounces that went F&M's way a week ago went Dickinson's way. The lack of a reliable 3-point shooter again hurt F&M in a playoff game (Dips went 2-for-18 beyond the arc), continuing a theme of the past several years. I was surprised by the margin of F&M's win last week and thought it would only serve to pump up Dickinson this weekend. The Dips were too inconsistent to win the title this year.

The Centennial champ has advanced at least to the second round of NCAAs every year since 2007 (F&M four years, JHU and Ursinus once each). I think the Devils have the pieces to make a run -- depending on the draw -- but they'll need to bring the same energy they did last night. Their post-game celebration reminded me of Gettysburg and Ursinus when they upset F&M in Mayser in past CC finals, and those teams fell in the first round of NCAAs in games they should have won. So I'm wondering how Dickinson will respond in their next game after an emotional win on a hated rival's court.

Brewer, Gyokchyan and Beckford had terrific careers that included three CC titles. Best of luck to each of them.

[Swat Fan #1]

Thank you, that makes perfect sense. I hope Dickinson has a great tournament and represents the Centennial as well as F&M has the last few years.

Thank you all for taking the time and explaining the Centennial Conference to me over the last four years. It is with incredible sadness that it is all over as I have enjoyed this so much. The players, the coaches, the parents, and everyone has been great. I really can't believe how fast four years have flown by. It was just yesterday that the first jump ball went into the air at Swat. The end of the road has such a sad and final feeling to it, but this really is the end of the road. I wish I had one more year to enjoy but sadly no.

I will check in from time to time next year to see how things are going. The only thing left is all conference selections. God Speed all!

[Reserved Seat]

Dickinson draws Marietta at home, a game the Devils have a good chance to win.

[Gabriel]

Go Devils!  Hope they do well!

[Reserved Seat]

McDaniel gets ECAC bid.

[Reserved Seat]

Max Brewer named to National Good Works Team
http://www.godiplomats.com/sports/m-baskbl/2012-13/releases/20130226xr36z4

[HoopGuru]

All Centennial Teams Announced this morning:

1st team
Zurn, Gburg
Honig, Dickinson
Gyokchyan, F&M
Wixted, Dickinson
Hargrove, Muhlenberg

2nd team
Killing, Muhlenberg
Porter, F&M
Krasna, Ursinus
Poarch, Washington College
Bugarinovic, Johns Hopkins
Salandra, F&M

Honorable Mention
Cohen, Haverford
Hammer, Johns Hopkins
Rudd, McDaniel
Baker, Haverford

Player of the Year – Hayk Gyokchyan F&M
Rookie of the Year – Malik Draper, Ursinus
Coach of the Year – Glenn Robinson, F&M

First team makes sense as those teams made the playoffs and typically teams are rewarded when they make the playoffs with players making all league.  Kind of shocked no Ward or Gates on any of the teams, but again, teams get rewarded when they win and get into the playoffs.  Another thing that surprised me was coach of the year.  Really surprised it didnt go to Seretti from Dickinson.  I think it is much more deserved for him and his staff than it is for Coach Robinson at F&M for the job he did this year.

Goodluck to Dickinson Saturday night.  I am hoping that they can make a run here through the tourny and keep it going for a couple more weeks.