MBB: Centennial Conference

[D.B. Cooper]

Tough 2/18 picks

G-Burg (Desperation as motivation)
JHU (If in doubt guess home team)
Muhlenberg (At home & playing better)
Haverford (Tenacious defense at home)
Washington (Needs contest too much to not come ready to play)

[BRCE4]

Picks for 2/18
F&M (What confidence G-burg had must be gone after Swat defeat)
Hopkins(just a hunch)
Mules(red devils are out of running and Mules are at home)
Ursinus(Fords need win but Ursinus wins the battle between teams relying on guard play)
Wash(Swat facing a team motivated by chance to make playoffs)

[Reserved Seat]

Interesting post

For some time now, Wash U graduate Patrick Abegg has been collecting data on Division III basketball, running his own computer rating and the like. In recent years his projections of the NCAA's regional rankings have been impressively accurate. So, rather than duplicate his efforts, we've decided to recognize him as the Joe Lunardi of Division III.

From his rankings, we're projecting out who the at-large men's basketball candidates are, which conference leaders are currently upset proof (if they take one loss) and who's on the bubble.

As a refresher, 60 teams make the NCAA Tournament in Division III men's basketball, with 39 automatic bids, three Pool B bids for teams not in those conferences and 18 at-large bids (Pool C).

For the purposes of this projection, one team in each conference has to be the presumed automatic bid.

Who's in?
These are teams that have clinched automatic bids
Washington University-St. Louis, UAA champion

Who's safe?
These are teams that would get in even with a loss in the conference finals, no matter what. There can only really be nine locks if there are 18 at-large bids.
St. Thomas
Ithaca
Puget Sound
Franklin and Marshall
UW-Whitewater
Middlebury
Worcester Polytech
Wheaton (Ill.)
Richard Stockton

Who's next?
For each team above which wins its conference tournament and automatic bid, a team from this list joins the ranks of the safe.
Capital
Buena Vista
Texas-Dallas
Calvin
Farmingdale State
Rhode Island College
St. Lawrence
Bridgewater State
Trinity (Texas)

Pool B ranking
Elms
Scranton
Susquehanna

No other Pool B team appears in Abegg's regional rankings, encompassing 82 teams. The next team would likely be Maryville (Tenn.).

Safe Pool C teams
These teams are relatively safe even with the one expected loss.
1. UW-Stevens Point
2. Hamilton
3. Mass-Dartmouth
4. UW-Platteville
5. John Carroll
6. Randolph-Macon
7. Centre
8. North Central
9. Salem State
10. Elmhurst

Pool C bubble teams
These teams need a lot of things to go right ahead of them.
11. Amherst
12. McDaniel
13. Carnegie Mellon (Note, no conference tournament.)
14. St. Joseph's (L.I.)
15. William Paterson
16. Ohio Wesleyan
17. Mississippi College
18. Whitworth

A-begging to get in
Better win out.
19. Montclair State
20. Colby
21. Wesley
22. McMurry
23. Augustana
24. MIT
25. DePauw
26. Ohio Northern
27. Bowdoin
28. Brandeis (Note, no conference tournament.)

I've gotten questions about Cornell and Mary Hardin-Baylor this week. They stand at No. 30 and 36 on Abegg's Pool C list.

All other conference leaders not listed need to win out, as currently projected.

[terror 30]

Picks for 2/18/09

F & M
McDaniel
Muhlenberg
Ursinus
Washington

[Pat Coleman]

Reserved seat: Let's link people to that post so they can comment:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/02/16/the-abegg-projections/

[old ends]

Congrats to Ryan foster, Muhlenberg, Conference player of the week

See the rest here: http://www.centennial.org/basketball/2009/MBK_216.pdf

enjoy

[old ends]

Stats are in for games thru 2/16

Click here: http://www.centennial.org/basketball/men/2009stats/confonly.htm

[old ends]

picks for 2/18/09

F & M
McDaniel
Muhlenberg
Haverford
Washington

[Gabriel]

Picks for Saturday 2/21/2009

Getting our in front a bit but here they are:

Dickinson-- (Seniors want to finish well, F&M doesn't need it)
Gettysburg--(Seniors at home after a disappointing season)
Ursinus --(Last game for Noonan, Brundage & Burnette)
Washington-- (Shoremen are hungry and at home)
Haverford-- (A home game and Swat won't do it twice this year)

I have all the home teams winning.  This will be the first time in nine years that the Bears have not been in the playoffs.  Time to reload.

[r.w. mcnickels]

2/18 picks:

Gettysburg
McDaniel
Muhlenberg
Haverford
Washington

Which Gettysburg team will show up?  I think it's a difficult matchup for F&M because the Bullets are much better than what they've shown lately.  I have a feeling Gettysburg will come out firing, build up a large lead, and fend off a late rally by the Dips.  CC hosting rights could still be up in the air on Saturday.

Interesting post

Who's safe?
These are teams that would get in even with a loss in the conference finals, no matter what. There can only really be nine locks if there are 18 at-large bids.
St. Thomas
Ithaca
Puget Sound
Franklin and Marshall
UW-Whitewater
Middlebury
Worcester Polytech
Wheaton (Ill.)
Richard Stockton

I wonder if coaches enjoy reading posts titled "Who's safe?"  Say the Dips lose at Gettysburg and Dickinson, then fall in the CC semifinals.  Granted this is the worst case scenario for an F&M fan, but in that case, are they safe?  Taking care of business in the conference is the most important thing!

[UniqueNewYork]

Pick-em for 2/18

F & M         
McDaniel     
Muhlenberg
Ursinus       
Swarthmore

sorry for missing the picks last week, couldn't get to a computer in time.

[Pat Coleman]

2/18 picks:

Gettysburg
McDaniel
Muhlenberg
Haverford
Washington

Which Gettysburg team will show up?  I think it's a difficult matchup for F&M because the Bullets are much better than what they've shown lately.  I have a feeling Gettysburg will come out firing, build up a large lead, and fend off a late rally by the Dips.  CC hosting rights could still be up in the air on Saturday.

Interesting post

Who's safe?
These are teams that would get in even with a loss in the conference finals, no matter what. There can only really be nine locks if there are 18 at-large bids.
St. Thomas
Ithaca
Puget Sound
Franklin and Marshall
UW-Whitewater
Middlebury
Worcester Polytech
Wheaton (Ill.)
Richard Stockton

I wonder if coaches enjoy reading posts titled "Who's safe?"  Say the Dips lose at Gettysburg and Dickinson, then fall in the CC semifinals.  Granted this is the worst case scenario for an F&M fan, but in that case, are they safe?  Taking care of business in the conference is the most important thing!

That's why we specify "These are teams that would get in even with a loss in the conference finals," because "safe" only covers one loss.

I would hope that coaches who read the "Who's safe" list also read the sentence right underneath it.

[r.w. mcnickels]

That's why we specify "These are teams that would get in even with a loss in the conference finals," because "safe" only covers one loss.

I would hope that coaches who read the "Who's safe" list also read the sentence right underneath it.

Let's hope so!  Actually -- I should have specified this -- the quote that was in my head came from the Pool C board:

In addition, we've reached the point where some teams have done enough that they'd be in even if they lose out. I think that list includes Ithaca, Franklin and Marshall, Richard Stockton, St. Thomas, and Puget Sound.

[diplomaniac1]

Folks -

The following are my choices for tonight's (2/18) pick-ems:

F & M @ Gettysburg:   F & M. (Should be a close game. Bullets will put up a fight at Bream. However, the Dips are looking to get one more monkey off of their backs and clinch conference tourney hosting rights).

McDaniel @ Johns Hopkins:   McDaniel. (Could be another close game. Edge to Terror due to being more athletic. Terror needs the win more than Jays to avoid dropping in seedings).

Dickinson @ Muhlenberg:   Muhlenberg. (Mules win at home in dark "Mule Barn", while trying to catch Terror for second spot. Devils out of hunt).

Ursinus @ Haverford:   Ursinus.  (Have been impressed with Fords' play of late. However, game in Mayser highlighted Fords' weakness at guard - a particular strength of Ursinus. Edge to the Bears).

Washington @ Swarthmore:   Washington. (Shoremen need wins to make conference tourney).

I hope to make trip to Gettysburg tonight to see the Diplomats play if the weather doen't get any worse between now and then. We have had snow and sleet thus far today in Southwest Central PA. Forecast calls for change to rain (hopefully) as the day moves along.

Good luck to all fans, teams, and fellow prognosticators! Enjoy the games and travel safely if going to tonight's games. Regards to all.

Eric

[oldford]

Haverford was without guard Greg Rosnick last Saturday (he got hurt in the Washington game) which certainly hurt the Fords (not taking anything away from the tremendous Franklin and Marshall team). He is a key player and I am not sure what his status for the Ursinus game is. Obviously, this is an important factor in this huge game.