MBB: Centennial Conference

[ronk]

I'd much rather have a team with quality wins over one with bad losses.  F&M's problem is bad luck, they lack quality regional wins because of an underwhelming conference, and both albright and wesley losing their respective opening round games during pre-Conference tournament season.  So you look thru the region: gwynedd mercy and keystone really havent beaten anyone in region either.  and desales and etown arent exactly showing a must-in resume.  i'm actually surprised scranton isnt in better shape in the rankings. 

And for Scranton... three losses on the road in conference action is not only going to hurt your record in region... it is going to hurt your SOS... and it's going to hurt your chances at a Pool C bid. Scranton has certainly won a lot of games at home... but the SOS emphasizes games on the road. Neither Scranton or F&M have proven they can win road games, especially in conference, with any sort of consistency. With an SOS index, you have to prove you can win outside of your own gym.

They have 2 losses, not 3- Drew,MMA.

[r.w. mcnickels]

There is such thing as a bad loss... which usually means there is no rhymn or reason a team lost that game. Case in point, F&M at McDaniel. There is no reason F&M should have lost that and being it was on the road it actually hurt their SOS. That would be considered a "bad" loss, IMHO.

The McDaniel loss should not have surprised anyone who follows F&M closely. And in my opinion, there is rhyme or reason the Dips lost that game: F&M hasn't won in Westminster in five years, and hasn't even cracked 60 points in the last three trips to the Gill Center. McDaniel frustrates F&M with a packed-in zone every year down there. McNally and Baker have never won in that gym -- it's become the most difficult CC road trip for F&M each year. So, I don't think that's a bad loss for F&M, although I understand why the numbers say otherwise.

[LustyLarryintheToilet]

ronk- thanks for the help.  makes sense now.

I just dont see much difference between a 13-2 conference record you win by 3 games or a 15-0 conference record you win by 5 games.  I wouldnt feel any more or less impressed about their resume had they beaten two additional .500 teams on the road.  I still think, as D3hoops does, that F&M is the second best team in the region.

The issue is whether or not F&M has built a Tournament resume for either a Pool C bid or higher seeding purposes.  F&M will have their 20+wins (21-4 in region if they win out).  But honestly, the only thing that stands out will be the way theyve played down the stretch.  Dave makes a great point, what factors show a committee that you have the ability to win in the tournament:  winning on the road is one of them.  IF F&M finishes 7-2 in conf on road, i think thats a good indicator. 

The other factor, in my opinion, is beating quality opponents.  F&M doesnt really have that, but few in the region do.  Thats why i pointed to Scranton.  They defeated MM, Kean and Cabrini.  Same with Cabrini who swept Keystone and GM.  Still two weeks to go though, going to be interesting.

[NEPAFAN]

ronk- thanks for the help.  makes sense now.

I just dont see much difference between a 13-2 conference record you win by 3 games or a 15-0 conference record you win by 5 games.  I wouldnt feel any more or less impressed about their resume had they beaten two additional .500 teams on the road.  I still think, as D3hoops does, that F&M is the second best team in the region.

The issue is whether or not F&M has built a Tournament resume for either a Pool C bid or higher seeding purposes.  F&M will have their 20+wins (21-4 in region if they win out).  But honestly, the only thing that stands out will be the way theyve played down the stretch.  Dave makes a great point, what factors show a committee that you have the ability to win in the tournament:  winning on the road is one of them.  IF F&M finishes 7-2 in conf on road, i think thats a good indicator. 

The other factor, in my opinion, is beating quality opponents.  F&M doesnt really have that, but few in the region do.  Thats why i pointed to Scranton.  They defeated MM, Kean and Cabrini.  Same with Cabrini who swept Keystone and GM.  Still two weeks to go though, going to be interesting.

Also take a look at the regionally ranked Keystone who lost to Marywood on the road last night. (They also lost at home to Marywood)

[pticknor]

The Chestertown Spy recently put together a video profile of Washington College men's basketball. Many of the themes of the piece ring true throughout Division III athletics.

http://www.chestertownspy.com/spy-profile-washington-college-basketball/

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Thanks for the correction on Scranton - I was thinking about their back-to-back losses that one particular weekend when I was writing that and neglected to then add their third loss.

Per road wins... remember the SOS... home wins now have a multiplier of .6 while road wins have a multiplier of 1.4. Beat McDaniel and you get a boost - no matter how much - to your SOS... lose and you gain nothing. Play only a handful of games on the road, you leave yourself far less leway when it comes to the SOS... AND you don't gain anything, may actually lose, with your home record. That is what has happened with F&M, Scranton, and especially Amherst in the Northeast.

I am not sure F&M can rest on a Pool C bid... they have taken some losses on the road they needed to win. I don't care if they can't win at McDaniel in the last five years... you have to win games to prove you deserve an at-large bid. The loss to McDaniel and Muhlenberg to me doesn't indicate a better team or they are are deserving of a bid.

Remember... every game counts from November 15th to February 27th. With only 18 at-large bids, if you don't win your conference, any in-region loss is going to hurt and any in-region loss to .500 or worse teams on the road looks bad.

pticknor - thanks for the article. Appreciate the read.

[kate]

Pticknor, thanks so much for sharing this - it's fantastic, makes me want to go to Washington College's site right now and check em out !  Thanks, again!

[LustyLarryintheToilet]

Dave, good stuff.  To clarify, from everything i'm reading in the NCAA handbook, i dont see any "stength of victory" criteria in relation to the .6 and 1.4 multipliers.  I think its Home Games played have a multiplier of .6, while road games played have a multiplier of 1.4 (regardless of the game's outcome) to determine the strength of schedule criteria.  So thus, whether or not F+M beat Muhl/McD, they'd still get the multiplier.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

OK - let me start over just a bit... I hope you don't mind... I might have a better way to make sense of this for everyone.

First off, this is from the handbook:

Here it is in the handbook:
"Weighted Scale. For a minimum of two championship seasons (2009-10 and 2010-11), a weighted scale will apply. Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are to be combined on a weighted scalre (e.g., 2/3 weight for OWP and 1/3 weight for OOWP) and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.

"Home/Away Multiplier. A multiplier of 1.4 shall be added to the OWP for those games played away from home. In addition, the same multiplier (1.4) shall be included for those games played on the road for the OOWP. A multiplier of 1/0 (no positive or negative effect) will be included in the OWP and OOWP for all neutral games. A multiplier of 0.6 shall be included in the OWP and OOWP for all home games."

With that considered... let me see if I can explain how this may work in the eyes of committee members and rankings and I will try and use F&M as an example.

Take F&M's OWP from teams they played at home, but NOT counting the win or the loss (or both, if necessary) and multiply by 0.6. Take F&M's OOWP the same way and multiply by the 0.6.
Now, take F&M's OWP from teams they played on the road, but NOT counting the win or the loss (or both, if necessary) and multiply by 0.6. You do the same for OOWP.

That creates your OWP and your OOWP which is weighted as you can read above.

So... here are my points:
Compare a team that is undefeated in region, has mostly home games, and as a result their SOS is very low (say .350) to a team that has two regional losses with a 50/50 split of their home and road games with an SOS that is reasonable (say .510). The committee may look at that and say, "well, the undefeated team is undefeated, but they should be against that weighted schedule and at home while the other team is playing a toughed weighted schedule and are at least winning games on the road... we'll rank the 2-loss team higher."

F&M is in this boat... they have played a majority of their games at home... they SOS isn't that stellar... they have lost games they shouldn't be losing, especially on the road, so the committee in the region is saying... they are #9. If F&M had won those "bad" road losses, their in-region winning percentage would be better and while their SOS might not be different (it could change - long story)... they would at least be seen as going on the road and winning... not as a team that can't seem to really win on the road, especially against top teams (SMC) or .500 or lower teams.

Just a hypothetical and something to ponder.

[diplomaniac1]

Here are my selections for tomorrow's "Pick-Em" Games:

Ursinus over Johns Hopkins
McDaniel over Muhlenberg
Dickinson over Haverford
F&M over Swarthmore
Gettysburg over Washington

I will be traveling to Tarble Pavilion to see the Diplomats play at Swarthmore. Good luck. Enjoy the games. Regards to all.

Eric

[Pat Coleman]

Dave, good stuff.  To clarify, from everything i'm reading in the NCAA handbook, i dont see any "stength of victory" criteria in relation to the .6 and 1.4 multipliers.  I think its Home Games played have a multiplier of .6, while road games played have a multiplier of 1.4 (regardless of the game's outcome) to determine the strength of schedule criteria.  So thus, whether or not F+M beat Muhl/McD, they'd still get the multiplier.

Yes, that's correct.

[BJ - DSU SID]

I'd like to echo Kate's post...thanks for sharing that link Phil.

[docmarc]

DocMarc is back!   As we hit the stretch run of the regular season and into the CC tourney at Mayser Center on what will soon be Glenn Robinson court, I am here to restore order in the ranks!

First of all, I would like to congratulate Glenn Robinson.  Who will argue that there is anyone better?  Next weekend will be a Homecoming of sorts for F&M basketball alumni.  Friday night there will be a ceremony at Interim President John Burness' house.  I am awaiting my invitation.  Mchugh, will D3hoops be covering this exclusive gala?  How about a live hoops ville?  On Saturday night there will be a court dedication and ceremony after the game against Dickinson.  Hope to see many of you there.  D3 hoops should be covering these events LIVE!  Do not allow ESPN2 to take all of the credit that you should have!

Speaking of ESPN 2, Coach Glenn Robinson's interview on Cold Pizza/ First Take/ Sportscenter/ Sportsnation/ etc on Wednesday promoted F&M basketball nationwide and that the game would be available via the F&M website.  Now I went to the game in Gettysburg, but then I am told that F&M allowed Gburg the right to show the video of the game.  And then Gburg charges folks to see the game on line.  THAT IS PATHETIC.  WHERE IS PAT COLEMAN TO DEAL WITH THESE ISSUES???  Many fans probably missed the game because they made a D3 hoops game PAY PER VIEW!!! WHAT!!

I would also like to comment on the Swarthmore fans yesterday.  Get up for your games!   There was an overrated chant for 2 seconds and then I saw its fans going for a free buffet.  Was there an email going out to the campus inviting people to come because of a free buffet.  SAD!

Now onto F&M, I like the lineup right now.  I am little worried that McNally is now relegated to the bench and barely getting 20 minutes of play- he is the leading scorer in F&M history.  But the lineup is more athletic and is handling the zone nicely.  I blame the slow start in the 1st half yesterday to Beckford being out for the half because of 2 early fouls and there has to be that 800 hangover.  9th or 1st in the region- this team is reaching the sweet 16.  From there, who knows?  Depends on the draw.  This Friday- Saturday format is not fair- especially with back to back nights of games and being on the roads? 

[gordonmann]

Speaking of ESPN 2, Coach Glenn Robinson's interview on Cold Pizza/ First Take/ Sportscenter/ Sportsnation/ etc on Wednesday promoted F&M basketball nationwide and that the game would be available via the F&M website.  Now I went to the game in Gettysburg, but then I am told that F&M allowed Gburg the right to show the video of the game.  And then Gburg charges folks to see the game on line.  THAT IS PATHETIC.  WHERE IS PAT COLEMAN TO DEAL WITH THESE ISSUES???  Many fans probably missed the game because they made a D3 hoops game PAY PER VIEW!!! WHAT!!

I generally agree with you.  As much as I enjoy Division III basketball, I'm yet to pay an online fee to watch a game.  That said, neither Pat Coleman nor anyone else from D3hoops.com has control over which schools charge a fee to watch their games.  That's an individual decision of each school.  I believe F&M and Gettysburg both charge a fee to watch their games online.

One addition: Dave McHugh spoke with Coach Robinson about his landmark win on Hoopsville on Thursday.  You can listen the archived interview here.  It starts at the 11 minute mark.

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/12604056

[Pat Coleman]

DocMarc is back!   As we hit the stretch run of the regular season and into the CC tourney at Mayser Center on what will soon be Glenn Robinson court, I am here to restore order in the ranks!

First of all, I would like to congratulate Glenn Robinson.  Who will argue that there is anyone better?  Next weekend will be a Homecoming of sorts for F&M basketball alumni.  Friday night there will be a ceremony at Interim President John Burness' house.  I am awaiting my invitation.  Mchugh, will D3hoops be covering this exclusive gala?  How about a live hoops ville?  On Saturday night there will be a court dedication and ceremony after the game against Dickinson.  Hope to see many of you there.  D3 hoops should be covering these events LIVE!  Do not allow ESPN2 to take all of the credit that you should have!

Speaking of ESPN 2, Coach Glenn Robinson's interview on Cold Pizza/ First Take/ Sportscenter/ Sportsnation/ etc on Wednesday promoted F&M basketball nationwide and that the game would be available via the F&M website.  Now I went to the game in Gettysburg, but then I am told that F&M allowed Gburg the right to show the video of the game.  And then Gburg charges folks to see the game on line.  THAT IS PATHETIC.  WHERE IS PAT COLEMAN TO DEAL WITH THESE ISSUES???  Many fans probably missed the game because they made a D3 hoops game PAY PER VIEW!!! WHAT!!

Lots of schools have their games online solely on a pay per view setup. F&M's was that way just a couple years ago, which is what Gordon remembers.

F&M doesn't have to give Gettysburg the right to do anything with Gettysburg's home game. It's their game to do as they please. The only group that could overrule that would be the conference, if the conference wanted to do something with a conference game. And the NCAA has its own jurisdiction over NCAA Tournament games.

I appreciate your enthusiasm -- we're not ESPN, though, and we don't have the budget or people to do that sort of thing. We're lucky to have a couple parts of the country where we can do some extra broadcasts on Saturdays, but midweek, we all have jobs.

The D3sports.com annual budget wouldn't even cover my salary, let alone paying for other stuff like broadcasts or server space and bandwidth to put the site out there. Doc -- if you know of a benefactor that has a six-figure check, though ...