MBB: Centennial Conference

Started by swish, March 01, 2005, 04:51:33 PM

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Reserved Seat

#4170
March 01, 2012, 09:46:35 PM
Picks
F&M
Western

onetinsoldier

#4172
March 02, 2012, 09:48:44 AM
I've tried to update my metrics using the last 5-weeks only.  Some findings i've found for F&M are as follows:

F&M is one of the most consistent teams when looking at their overall season vs the last five weeks (L5W), and have the same total efficiency margin of 0.21.  That puts them in the top 20 in the country in both full season and L5W.  I'll start with their first weekend pod.  It is difficult to analyze the York game "on paper."  York is ranked down in the 140's for both metrics.  But when you factor in their coaching, and the potential great atmosphere tonight, anything can happen.

CNU and Wconn are similar teams.  both teams like games in the 70s+, but as mentioned by a WConn poster they just do not play strong defense.  Over the L5W Newport is ranked 53rd, Wconn 87th. If CNU wins tonight, F&M will have a competitive game against a team that is just a shade behind them in FG% and rebounding margin.  If its Wconn, the game will focus more on Brooks.  F&M can win if its star (Milligan) doesnt play well.  But i'm not sure Wconn can if Brooks does not play well. 

Should F&M reach the second weekend the games, albeit tougher, are not impossible.  MIT has the best efficiency in the country over the entire season, but is ranked only 35th in the country L5W.  Amherst is a shade behind F&M for both.  F&M could actually face tougher opposition from Staten Island, who has been shooting lights out and matches F&M's advantage on the boards.  Should be fun
Go ahead and hate your neighbor, Go ahead and cheat a friend. Do it in the name of Heaven, You can justify it in the end. There won't be any trumpets blowing Come the judgement day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away.

7express

#4173
March 02, 2012, 10:42:21 AM
The key as always will be Brooks.  If he can get open and get his looks, and knock his shots down this team could very be playing at least up until next weekend.  If he doesn't get open, or his shot isn't falling, it could be a long night.  Also, when the games starting to get out of reach is when he goes into "hero" mode that can either be good or bad; he doesn't look at all for the other 4 people on the court, and really as soon as he crosses half court he can shoot it from anywhere.  Even with 2 or 3 people on him chances are he'll shoot the hero spot when 1 or 2 people will be wide open.  Also, sometimes he's too quick for his own good, sure he's super quick one of the fastest guys I've ever seen, but sometimes he can outrun himself.  Going into the season there were 2 keys that were going to define the season and they still haven't been solved:

1) If we were going to have a 2nd or 3rd option complementing Brooks.  After Brooks, the next 2 team high's in average PPG are 10.2...that's not going to get it done in the long run.  Every so often we'll get a streaky shooter, but it's really Brooks or bust
2) The defense has and continues to be a problem.  Until we can figure that out, we'll be ending our season sooner rather than later.  Also, were a relatively small team; we have 1 person in our starting 5 taller than 6"3 and that guy likes to hang outside on the perimter and shoot 3"s so we basically start 4 guards and a 6"3 forward.  Any team that has decent height we're in trouble with.  But this weekend should be fun for the fans.  As coach Bill Geitner (the coach of the Eastern Connecticut state Warriors) said about Brooks: "He's fun to watch for the fans, he's fun to watch on tape, he's fun to watch when I'm scounting.  When I'm coaching he's not fun to watch."   Hopefully the fans down in Lancaster get to see him for more than 80 minutes, but they may not like him on Saturday  ;)
Also, I'm interested in seeing Georgio Millikin for the Dips these next 2 days.  Hopefully we get some good games, looking forward to my visit to Mayser gym.

diplomaniac1

#4174
March 02, 2012, 12:34:09 PM

Yes, we are still picking. However, I didn't post the games. My picks are as follows:

Franklin And Marshall over York
Christopher Newport over Western Connecticut

Enjoy the games. Regards to all!

Eric

pizzashop

#4176
March 02, 2012, 07:24:39 PM
The West Conn./CNU game was fantastic. From the looks of it on the webcast, Mayser is going to be packed, hot and loud!
He that is good for making excuses is seldom good for anything else. ~ Benjamin Franklin

Reserved Seat

#4177
March 02, 2012, 10:31:43 PM
F&M put 5 players in double figures as they easily defeated York 72-50.  Despite York's physical play, F&M was able to play an inside-outside game.
Tomorrow, the key to stopping Western is containing Brooks.  Western is a one-dimensional team-no defense and no team offense.
Brooks scored 52 points-45 in the second half, but he was only 5 for 17 from behind the 3 line.  If Porter can stop Brooks's drives, F&M''s defense should be able to shut down Brooks' drives to the basket.
DEFENSE

7express

#4178
March 02, 2012, 11:24:02 PM
The quickness is what kills teams.  CNU got beat off the dribble in the second half so it was either Brooks get the easy layup, or you foul him and he makes the 2 from the line.  The Captains were visably frustrated as that game was ending.  If F&M is able to stay in front of him, theyll win by 2o.

njf1003

#4179
March 02, 2012, 11:32:06 PM
Good game for the Dips tonight!
I agree F&M will have to do something for Brooks, 52 points!!!

Prediction for tomorrow:
F&M (closer than today though)

7express

#4180
March 02, 2012, 11:54:12 PM
Sorry, as a WCSU student I'm taking Western, but really F&M is the better team.

mulefreak02

#4181
March 03, 2012, 12:37:20 AM
nice job by f&m tonight beating up on a weaker team from a weaker conference. the mules were better than york, based on what i saw on video. let's see how the vaunted dips do against a player of division 1 caliber in daquan brooks...looking forward to it.

onetinsoldier

#4182
March 03, 2012, 12:50:26 AM
Quote from: mulefreak02 on March 03, 2012, 12:37:20 AM
nice job by f&m tonight beating up on a weaker team from a weaker conference. the mules were better than york, based on what i saw on video. let's see how the vaunted dips do against a player of division 1 caliber in daquan brooks...looking forward to it.

ah mulefreak, my nemesis from last week.  Interesting points, as i too was in awe of DaQuan Brooks.  What a performance, possibly the best in ncaa tournament history.  My metrics can never account for a guy doing his best teen wolf impression.  We'll see if F&M, who plays great team defense can stop Brooks. 

The OneTinSoldier might need to queue that one tomorrow night. 
Go ahead and hate your neighbor, Go ahead and cheat a friend. Do it in the name of Heaven, You can justify it in the end. There won't be any trumpets blowing Come the judgement day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away.

Swat Fan #1

#4183
March 03, 2012, 08:19:16 AM
I am willing to bet Porter is up to it. Terrific defender and great athlete. When he rests, Georgio will be guarding him. I bet GM will take this as a challenge and will outplay him as the bigger the game, the better he plays. I think F&M is peaking at the right time.

Reserved Seat

#4184
March 03, 2012, 09:52:10 AM
Mulefreak didn't disappoint me.  He took the time to get his negative command posted.  Way to support the Centennial Conference.
Brooks plays a lot like Killing, but with a senior's experience.  Having played Killing, should give F&M an idea of how to cover Brooks.  F&M will have to negate Brook's quickness and provide help to stop the uncontested lay-ups.
My pick is F&M, but the margin of victory depends on the job Porter and company can do on Brooks.
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