MBB: Centennial Conference

[onetinsoldier]

efficiency model?

Yeah, i try to run an efficiency model which calculates average number of possessions per game, then look at points scored and allowed on a per possession basis. 

[gordonmann]

Cool!  Is there any kind of number that correlates with winning?  For example, "if a team has X possessions per game more than it's opponent, than it is X percent more likely to win?"

[centfan]

ursinus struggled on the boards again vs. f&m:
salandra 12/hayk 7
ward 4/janowski 2
f&m took 9 more shots and got to the foul line alot more than ursinus
that was the difference...boards and fouls

[njf1003]

Ursinus actually out rebounded F&M in the second half.

Moune and Rogo played really well for F&M today.

Muhl should be another test Sat.

[Reserved Seat]

F&M looked like a much better team than Saturday.

[Reserved Seat]

F&M had two good games in a row.  Despite a very physical game from Muhlenberg,as usual, F&M was able to control the game after a 20-20 tie.  Gykchyan had an all-around good game with 28 points and 8 rebounds.  Muhlenberg did out rebound F&M, but F&M's tenacious defense caused the Mules to have 20 turnovers. The name of the game was DEFENSE.  Stavetski must have been trying to set a record by picking up 4 fouls during 7 minutes of play in the first half.  Between Staveski and the thuggish play of Forsman, again as usual, the game was physical.  Killing play a reasonable game offensively by scoring 18 picks, but seldom getting his teammates involved.  He's persistent to play with only scoring in mind affects the overall play of his team.  Porter did a great job defensively to keep Killing contained.  Rogo and Moune played well, but still show a need to grow.  Both should improve as they get more time.  Robinson goes for win 850 on Wednesday at Gettysburg.

[r.w. mcnickels]

The Dips have won two key games this week, but I think Dickinson is in the driver's seat. F&M is too inconsistent to be a conference champion this year. Nice win over the Mules in front of a large crowd, but the Dips are a work in progress.

Big games Wednesday: F&M at Gettysburg, Dickinson at Mules. I see the Bullets knocking off the Dips and Dickinson getting a key win in Allentown. Killing is a fine scorer but seems uninterested in any other aspect of basketball.

Saw the F&M-Ursinus game on video Thursday night. What has happened in Collegeville? When Ward and Janowski came in as freshmen, an Ursinus friend of mine said this duo was going to lead the Bears to multiple CC titles and NCAA berths. They were hyped as recruits by the D3hoops twitter feed. I was impressed with both players the first time I saw them, but a few years later, they are a shell of what I expected.

[Pat Coleman]

The Dips have won two key games this week, but I think Dickinson is in the driver's seat. F&M is too inconsistent to be a conference champion this year. Nice win over the Mules in front of a large crowd, but the Dips are a work in progress.

Big games Wednesday: F&M at Gettysburg, Dickinson at Mules. I see the Bullets knocking off the Dips and Dickinson getting a key win in Allentown. Killing is a fine scorer but seems uninterested in any other aspect of basketball.

Saw the F&M-Ursinus game on video Thursday night. What has happened in Collegeville? When Ward and Janowski came in as freshmen, an Ursinus friend of mine said this duo was going to lead the Bears to multiple CC titles and NCAA berths. They were hyped as recruits by the D3hoops twitter feed. I was impressed with both players the first time I saw them, but a few years later, they are a shell of what I expected.

We don't evaluate recruits ourselves, so any hyping would have just been us retweeting someone else's hyping.

[d3hoopsfan]

It's because both of the UC bigs are very soft.  You need more than just height and some offensive skill at this level.

[d3hoopsfan]

It's because both of the UC bigs are very soft.  You need more than just height and some offensive skill at this level.

[Gabriel]

The Dips have won two key games this week, but I think Dickinson is in the driver's seat. F&M is too inconsistent to be a conference champion this year. Nice win over the Mules in front of a large crowd, but the Dips are a work in progress.

Big games Wednesday: F&M at Gettysburg, Dickinson at Mules. I see the Bullets knocking off the Dips and Dickinson getting a key win in Allentown. Killing is a fine scorer but seems uninterested in any other aspect of basketball.

Saw the F&M-Ursinus game on video Thursday night. What has happened in Collegeville? When Ward and Janowski came in as freshmen, an Ursinus friend of mine said this duo was going to lead the Bears to multiple CC titles and NCAA berths. They were hyped as recruits by the D3hoops twitter feed. I was impressed with both players the first time I saw them, but a few years later, they are a shell of what I expected.

r.w.,

Speaking for most Ursinus fans, we all thought the Bears would be terrific for the next four years when Ward, Janowski and Donahue were recruited.  All three started as freshmen in 2009-10.
No one is more surprised than us at the dismal performance the last two years.  Fact is, in the four years to date, Ursinus is 43-54 overall and 33-36 in the CC. The first year, 2009-2010, the team included Remy Cousart, Matt Hilton and Keith Page----all scorers and very good players and they went 15-11.  Matt Hilton played on the 2010-2011 team as well and the went 12-13.   

FYI, scoring averages for the three players over their careers at Ursinus:
                 2010    2011     2012    2013 (YTD)
Ward           13.7     19.6     16.0     12.7   
Janowski        8.1      8.6       4.1      8.7
Donahue        6.3      7.4       6.9      4.5   

Obviously, their scoring production has not improved.  Is this because the supporting cast is not as good-----or because the players themselves did not work hard enough to improve their games----or because opponents are packing in their defenses----or all of the above and some other reason(s)?

I do know that, fundamentally, to play a post position you first have to carve out space for yourself to receive the ball----then you have to catch the ball.  You catch and look, pivot and swing the ball around low, head up ready to pass, dribble or shoot.  Our forwards don't seem to do these things well or at all and are way too easily defended.                       

[HoopGuru]

I agree on the remarks about Ursinus' forwards.  They dont appear to play very tough or physical, which is something you need to have, especially in the CC, and I think this shows from the lack of rebounding that they each do given the total number of minutes they are playing.  Another reason that you see the lack of production from Ward is that you dont have anyone out there to spread the floor.  There hasnt been a legitimate outside shooter on the team the past two years, which makes it easier to defend the post and do different things such as double down, play zone, etc. Also, Im not sure how good their G's are at actually passing the ball into the post. Early in Wards career, Fr-So, they had really good passers/decision makers at the Guard position. From what I've seen, their guards look more to score or shoot, which could be b/c the F's are not getting good position inside so they feel like they have to do that.  I think some forget that Ward spent time overseas over the summer so if I had to guess, it was probably hard for him to actually put in the work necessary to improving his game but thats D3 basketball.  Finally, i think Janowski really hasnt developed into what people thought b/c of the early success Ward had.  Janowski kind of fell into that second Forward and has deferred throughout his career to Ward.

[centfan]

hoop guru
I think your point about Ursinus not having shooters who spread the floor is true, but most teams are in the same situation. There really are not alot of shooters in the conference. Dickinson (Wixted 6'7), F&M (Hayk 6'7, Salandra 6'7), Haverford (Cohen 6'6) and a few other bigs score, rebound and mix it up in the paint without reliable shooters on their team. (and F&M and Haverford don't have a proven point guard).I think Ward came into the league as a 6'10 kid who had some skills and a bit of hype being a local player (there was some D1 talk which I didn't quite understand) but it seems like he didn't get better at the things he doesn't do well naturally.  His strengths are scoring close to the basket and foul shooting. His shooting percentage is high but that is because he does not take alot of difficult, contested shots. There are alot of ways to win...most do it in our conference with defense and a couple of offensive threats. Ursinus is not strong defensively and don't have a consistent "go to" guy on offense. It seems like they hope someone will have a great game but no one does it every night.

[Gabriel]

Losing both Reggie Kamara and Trey Harry for the year hurt really impacted on the Bears defensively and on the boards.  Although rough around the edges offensively, Kamara is a big physical presence who rebounds and defends and who will score 6-8 points a game.  Harry has quick hands, is an excellent defender and is a better shooter than he thinks he is.  I am a big believer in both as they play with heart and DIII skills. Both should be back next year but that does not help them now.

[onetinsoldier]

Question, are tiebreakers still first head to head, and second w/l % over highest remaining team in standings?