MBB: Centennial Conference

[onetinsoldier]

I re-ran my efficiency table using the NCAA's latest stats (thru games of last Thursday).  Just some food for thought, F&M is the top team in the conference at #69 in the nation (up from 95 when i did this a few weeks ago).  As a comparison, they have been in the top 20 three of the past four years.  Dickinson is next at 119, Muhl at 133, Hopkins at 138, GBurg at 140. mcdaniel at 178, Ursinus at 289, and the rest at sub-300. 

In what can only be a complete coincidence, the top team in the nation per the efficiency matrix is St. Thomas, and its not even really close.  Calvin, Hamp-syd, Williams and Catholic round out the top 5

[HoopGuru]

Looks to be an exciting last week of the regular season.  I'm obviously hoping for a 2-0 week for the Bears and an 0-2 week for the Bullets, although its never fun when you put yourself in the position where you have to have help from other teams in order to make playoffs.  Much better to have clinched by this point or be in Gburg's position where its win and your in.  Would love to be able to get to that Dickinson/F&M game on Sat. as it looks like that will be for hosting the playoffs the following weekend if they both take care of business on Wednesday night.

As far as some of the talk regarding the CC winner not going far in the NCAA tourney, I wouldn't be so quick to put that in writing.  I realize that none of the teams this year compare to F&M the past few years, Gburg a couple years ago, or Ursinus in 2008, but being able to advance in the tournament is all about the draw that first weekend.  In my opinion, just from seeing a couple games on video this season, if Dickinson could win the CC somehow, I think they could possibly get a couple NCAA wins depending on the draw.  One thing about the CC, even though teams might not be as good as previous years, it does prepare you to be competitive in those NCAA games.  The one thing that I am definitely interested in seeing play out is the format of this years NCAA tournament in both division 2 and division 3.  Since they are having each of the final 4's down in Atlanta at the division 1 host site, the 2 and 3 tournaments are very spread out, where teams will be playing just one game and then having a full week off.  That will almost certainly play an advantage in the whole tournament this year b/c it will give teams much more time to rest and prepare for their next opponent rather than having to turn around the very next day and play their next game.  I think this is a big factor that could change some things in this years tournament.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just to clear up one thing... each of the final fours will not take place in Atlanta... just the D1 final four with the D2 and D3 championship games. Salem will host the Elite 8 and the Final Four two weeks prior.

[onetinsoldier]

Vegas has set the lines for tonight's important round of CC action:  F&M is 7 point favorites at home and Dickinson is a 2 point road favorite!

[onetinsoldier]

Saw the new regional rankings, with Dickinson slipping in at F&M's old number 9 spot.  I'd have to believe that F&M's recent loss guarantees this will be a one-bid league

[welldusted]

Saw Dickinson, F&M and Ursinus games last night thru the miracle of technology.  F&M did as expected, came out hard and the result was never really in doubt.   Dickinson pulled ahead with a late spurt but did not look comfortable on offense at all.  Neither did Gettysburg -- they were missing Zurn and Poston with injuries which maybe explains why they are floundering late.  It's hard when your best player can't play.  Also saw Wixted had his hand in a splint and played under 10 minutes -- if he can't go that puts Dickinson's prospects in real doubt.   Finally, saw Ursinus rally late to keep their season alive when it looked like they were trying to toss it away for the first 10 mins. of the second half.  It should be interesting to see how things play out, as neither McDaniel or Muhlenberg really have much to gain on Saturday when they play Gettysburg and Ursinus.

[onetinsoldier]

A true regular season championship game this week at Mayser, should be a lot of fun.  The One Tin Soldier will ride into the town for the first time this season for what will hopefully be the first of two straight saturday home games against the Devils.  Looking back, the first game in Carlisle was a strange one.  It isn't often you see the Diplomats take 20 3's in a hotly contested game.  Dickinson also matched the Dips in rebounding (a clear F&M strength), and they will need to approach that, and their 90% ft shooting if they are to get the road win.  I see a game probably played in the 50's, with the winner being based on how the game is called early. 

[commish]

Here are your official playoff scenarios entering the season's final day.

The winner of the Dickinson-Franklin & Marshall game will be the top seed and host for the Conference final four that begins on Friday, Feb. 22.

The loser of that game will be the #2 seed and play either Johns Hopkins or Muhlenberg. A Blue Jay victory gives the #3 seed to Hopkins, while a loss and a Muhlenberg win gives the spot to the Mules. Should both teams lose, JHU is the #3 seed due to a season sweep of 'Berg.

The first-round game will be played on Wednesday, Feb. 20, at the site of the #4 seed - either Johns Hopkins or Muhlenberg. Gettysburg earns the #5 seed with a victory, while a loss and an Ursinus triumph gives the final spot to the Bears. If both teams lose and a three-way deadlock is created with McDaniel, Gettysburg is the #5 seed due to a 3-1 record against McDaniel and Ursinus.

Since the Centennial went to a double round-robin format in 2004, the top seed for the tournament has never been decided in a winner-take-all matchup.

Franklin & Marshall has not played a road Conference tournament game since the 2003 Centennial final at Ursinus. The Diplomats have played 12 consecutive CC tourney games at the Mayser Center.

Dickinson has never hosted a Centennial tournament game. The last time the Red Devils hosted any Conference postseason game was on Feb. 19, 1990, as Dickinson defeated Lebanon Valley in a MAC Southwest tie-breaker.

[onetinsoldier]

Franklin & Marshall has not played a road Conference tournament game since the 2003 Centennial final at Ursinus.

ten years?!?! wow. i will always remember the pageantry of that amazing event, even if my team fell short

[njf1003]

My predictions for this weekend:
Gettysburg at McDaniel they have more to prove and don't want to put their post-season hopes in someone elses hands. Although if Zurn isn't playing this one could end up as another Terror victory at home
Washington College at Johns Hopkins not too challenging here, home team wanting a higher seed in the tournament
Dickinson at Franklin & Marshall edge to F&M as they are still undefeated at home, but it should be a good game as both teams want to host
Swarthmore at Haverford in the only game that doesn't matter on the day, the home team gets the nod
Ursinus at Muhlenberg the bears have been up and down all season and heading to the Mule Barn is just too much for them to handle as they miss the playoffs again

[Warren Thompson]

The last time the Red Devils hosted any Conference postseason game was on Feb. 19, 1990, as Dickinson defeated Lebanon Valley in a MAC Southwest tie-breaker.

Commish: as I recall, the game above was the fourth time the Devils beat the Dutchmen that season. However, in the fifth meeting [gasp!], an ECAC playoff game, LVC prevailed.

[Swat Fan #1]

"Swarthmore at Haverford in the only game that doesn't matter on the day, the home team gets the nod."

Not sure that a statement has ever been farther from the truth. It means everything to the seniors who are playing their last game. Everything.

And again no love for Swarthmore who has played incredibly hard this season and has three overtime games in a row and now an all-time scoring record for a career.

[njf1003]

"Swarthmore at Haverford in the only game that doesn't matter on the day, the home team gets the nod."

Not sure that a statement has ever been farther from the truth. It means everything to the seniors who are playing their last game. Everything.

And again no love for Swarthmore who has played incredibly hard this season and has three overtime games in a row and now an all-time scoring record for a career.

Yes, I agree it means everything to the seniors playing! They want to go out with a win. My statement was probably a bit carelessly written.

I'm not not giving love to Swat, if this game was at home I would be 100% on Swat's side. They beat F&M at home, Haverford beat F&M at home. It will probably be a good game. I gave the nod to Haverford, because they were at home, not because Swat can't win.

Swat will probably be in playoff contention next year if they keep playing.

My statement probably should have been "is the only game that doesn't matter on the day in term of playoff seeding." At least that's what I was thinking when I posted it!

Good luck to Swat tomorrow!

It should be a great day of D3 basketball!

[njf1003]

From what I saw of the Dips game, it was pretty good play by F&M. And I'm not sure where all the fans came from....

Also, congrats to Swat on finishing up the season with a win! I didn't see any of the game, but the stats do look pretty good for Swat.

Gburg lucky that Ursinus couldn't pull out the win.

Should be a good tournament this weekend.

GET at MUH
Semis: winner at F&M,  DC vs JHU

[centfan]

lots of blowouts today...mules, swat and f&m with clear victories.
looks like f&m is the clear frontrunner now that they are home and handily defeated dickinson.
i think muhlenberg is a team to watch if killing and hargrove have strong games against f&m..
gettysbrg without zurn doesn't seem to be a threat, and hopkins probably cant put enough points on the board against muhlenberg or f&m. i would have prferred an f&m/muhlenberg final.
we shall see....
good luck to everybody.