MBB: Centennial Conference

[CCD3Basketball]

Also, according to the box score, no Malique Killing on Saturday for the Mules against the Bullets? Anyone have a story there?

[Reserved Seat]

Sure hope the play-offs aren't at Hopkins--only the chosen will get to see the games.

[ronk]

Sure hope the play-offs aren't at Hopkins--only the chosen will get to see the games.

  One would think that you'd be among "the chosen", but I sense you're being more magnaminous than that.

[DipsWin13]

I know that it's still a little bit too early to start predicting the playoff picture with much certainty, but just a few things to consider:

• On paper, Dickinson has the toughest schedule the rest of the way, having to play each of the top 4 teams below them before the playoffs.  It would be quite a feat to get through McDaniel, Hopkins, F&M, and Muhlenberg without a loss.
• Conversely, because each of the 2-5 seed teams (as they're currently ranked) has to play Dickinson, looking at everyone's schedule outside of that game- either Muhlenberg (@ F&M, v. Swat, v. UC) or F&M (@ UC, v. Muhl, v. Gburg) might have the "easiest" remaining schedule (although that's all relative in this conference.
• With the exception of the F&M @ Dickinson game on the final day of the regular season (Feb. 22), we should have a pretty good idea going into that Saturday of what the seeding will be going into the post-season (barring any major upsets.)
• The combined conference winning percentage for the remaining opponents for the top 5 teams (DC, McD, JHU, F&M, Muhl) is 57%, whereas the combined conference winning percentage for the remaining opponents for the bottom 5 teams (GC, WAC, Hav, Swat, UC) is 43%.  Basically, this is an easy way of saying that the better teams are going to be facing tough opponents, and the worse teams are going to have an easier schedule the rest of the way.
• The order of difficulty of remaining schedule based on conference winning percentage of remaining opponents from highest to lowest is: 1) Dickinson (.714), T-2 Johns Hopkins (.607), T-2 Gettysburg (.607), 4) McDaniel (.571), 5) F&M (.518), 6) Swarthmore (.482), 7) Ursinus (.464), 8) Muhlenberg (.446), 9) Washington (.321), 10) Haverford (.268)... Again, this makes it seem like Muhlenberg stands a very good chance of making the post-season.
  
• If I'm not mistaken, the only team that has clinched the post-season is Dickinson (although it's impossible to know with McDaniel because if they lose out, and Gettysburg wins out, the tie-breakers would rely on record against the highest ranked common opponent I believe, and we won't know that until after everything plays out.)
• Even before F&M beat WAC on Saturday, the Shoremen had been eliminated from post-season contention (via head-to-head tiebreaker with Muhlenberg.  So right now we're looking only at 6 teams for the last five spots.

It all feels a little bit silly to even look at all of this with 4 conference games left for all of these teams, but these are just a few observations with two weeks left to go.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the tie-breaking procedures are?  I'm having trouble finding them all in writing.

[njf1003]

Also, according to the box score, no Malique Killing on Saturday for the Mules against the Bullets? Anyone have a story there?

Killing had 2 technical fouls against him on Wed., suspending him from their next game.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the tie-breaking procedures are?  I'm having trouble finding them all in writing.

http://centennial.org/Manual/2013-14/BasketballM.pdf
top of page 2.
basically
H2H
results v. teams from top-down
coin flip

unless it's for the 5 seed, then 
H2H
results v. teams from top-down
tie-breaker game

[diplomaniac1]

Here are my picks for upcoming games this week involving Centennial Conference teams.

Monday, February10:

Haverford @ Moravian:   Greyhounds should win at home against the Fords.

Wednesday, February 12:

F&M @ Ursinus:   Diplomats win.

Johns Hopkins @ Gettysburg:   Hopkins should win and eliminate G-burg from Conference playoffs.

Swarthmore @ Muhlenberg:   Mules should take care of the Garnet at the "Barn".

McDaniel @ Dickinson:   This is the toughest game of the five to call. As long as Wixted plays significant minutes and contributes, the Devils should win. Without Wixted, all bets are off. In the end, I'll take the Devils in a very close game at home.

Haverford @ Washington:   Another toss-up game in my mind. I'll take the Shoremen to win after a brutual loss to the Diplomats this weekend.

Stay warm and enjoy the games! Regards to all.

Eric

[CCD3Basketball]

Another big night of CC hoops on tap for tonight (weather permitting, of course). Here are my picks for tonight:

F&M @ Ursinus: The Bears have been playing a lot better lately. I still think F&M wins this game. But the Bears could give the Diplomats trouble if they aren't careful. F&M HAS to stay out of foul trouble, as they don't have the bodies to win a close game if the starters are in foul trouble for extended periods of time.

Johns Hopkins @ Gettysburg: Well, if the Bullets are going to have a sniff at staying in playoff contention, they HAVE to win this game. Staying at home to play a team which is battling for a first round bye and, perhaps, home court in the playoffs if things shake up right. A HUGE game for both teams. Hopkins can easily lose this game if they aren't careful, especially considering the Bullets already went to Baltimore earlier this year and pulled out a win.. Hammer and Bugarinovic need to play great games to help the Jays pull this one out. I think the Bullets find a way to win at home, but wouldn't at all be surprised to see a Hopkins win. Hopkins should be the better team, but taking all factors into account, anything can happen.

Swarthmore @ Muhlenberg: I'll take the Mules at home to win this game and negate any possible win for the Bullets hurting them in the playoff chase. Killing will be ready to dominate after missing the last game.

Haverford @ Washington: Both teams eliminated from playoff contention but still have something to prove. Last time they met, the Shoremen put up a 29 (29!) point win at Haverford, somewhere they haven't won at since 2003. Brett Cohen, one of the CC's best big men, was also held without a point in that game. Should be a good game, I'll take the Shoremen at home.

McDaniel @ Dickinson: Obviously, the CC game of the night. A tough stretch of games coming up for the Red Devils, to say the least. Four games left, all against the other 4 teams currently in the CC playoffs if the season ended today. If you wanna be the best, you got to beat the best, right?? A McDaniel win tonight, combined with wins by the other current playoff teams, would incredibly shake up the race for home court in the CC Tournament. A win by Dickinson creates a 2 game separation with 3 games left and could seal the deal for hosting rights. I agree with diplomaniac1, Wixted has to play big minutes tonight and be the potential CC Player Of The Year he is. McDaniel lost at home the first matchup, but they have been 13-2 since, and I think they learned a lot from that defeat. I give McDaniel every chance in the world to win, but in the end.....man I don't know for certain. Can I flip a coin? I'll take the Red Devils at home to pull out the W.

Should be a GREAT night of games. Can't wait to take it all in!

[Reserved Seat]

Oh, no, another player down for F&M.  One of the starters--major blow.

[CCD3Basketball]

Oh, no, another player down for F&M.  One of the starters--major blow.

Oh goodness. Exactly what they DON'T need!

[Swat Fan #1]

Oh, no, another player down for F&M.  One of the starters--major blow.

Oh man.... who is out? I hate this! Hope he is better quickly!

[Swat Fan #1]

F&M and JH already beaten tonight. A night of upsets!

What in the world happened with F&M tonight? Blow a 21 point halftime lead and get outscored 45-21 in the second half by a 1-13 team. I would love to hear what happened.

[Reserved Seat]

F&M is losing a war of attrition.  Moune was injured in Saturday's game and was not available to play.  He's getting an MRI tomorrow.
Figueroa took Moune's place which gives up a major difference in height.  F&M cruised to an easy lead with tight defense and sharp shooting in the first 11 minutes.  Figueroa put up 11 early points.  Urinsus went to a full course press and got F&M out of sync as they had difficulty handing the press.  Numerous turnovers followed, but F&M was able to maintain a 19 lead at the half.  Coming into the second half, F&M increased the lead to 21, but it was all downhill from there.  With Lee, Wright, and Porter on the bench with 3 fouls each, F&M's lack of bench played a major role in the game's ending.  F&M was listed with 20+ turnovers, but there seemed to be more.  Phelps struggled and Faison is just coming back from an injury.  The starters all paid a lot of minutes and seemed to tire.

[CCHOOPS12]

F&M in my mind is in MAJOR trouble if Moune can't return... last night wasn't even against the Bigs that they will face in the playoffs (wixted, collins, hargrove, hunter, bovino, pupelis, and the 17 bigs at JHU). If he doesn't return they are going to be the 5th seed and be one and done. Sad to see it happen when he is having a terrific season.

[Reserved Seat]

Doesn't look good for the rest of the season.  Hargrove will have a field day, if Moune can't play.

[Gabriel]

Great game in Collegeville last night.........if you are a Bears fan.  First win over Dips since 2009.  Seniors Krasna, Vasturia and Adams led the way in a helter shelter second half.......just the way Usinus likes it.  Thankfully, Missed the first half due to heavy traffic as the game started out 24 to1 F&M with the Dips leading 35-16 at half.  Strange------GRob left 3 timeouts on the table while his team unraveled in the second half.