MBB: Centennial Conference

[CCD3Basketball]

Let's take a peek at tonight's games, shall we?

Johns Hopkins @ Dickinson: Having Bryce Allen back and full go definitely changes things for Dickinson, but they still don't have enough horses to run with the Blue Jays.

Franklin & Marshall @ McDaniel: I don't know what to think of either one of these teams. The Dips should be the more talented team, but they have been so inconsistent this year that it's maddening from the outside looking in. 43 points at home over the weekend to Washington, who would have thought? McDaniel, they play hard, but they just don't have the pieces to run. I think F&M wins tonight, but honestly a Green Terror win wouldn't surprise me at this point.

Muhlenberg @ Swarthmore: While the Mules aren't locked into the 4 seed by any means, being 2 games clear of 5th and 2 games out of third pretty much solidifies their position at this point. The Mules are playing good ball, but Swarthmore is a whole different animal. What concerns me about the Garnet is that, even though they keep winning, they've looked real vulnerable against a couple of recent opponents (WAC, Gettysburg, hell Ursinus had them down by 10 with 10 minutes left). At some point I keep waiting for them to slip up, but they haven't done it yet. Could the Mules do it tonight? If they take care of the ball and shoot well, they've got a chance, but I still believe the Garnet win tonight.

And now, we get to the two biggest games of the evening.....

Gettysburg @ Ursinus: Two of the three teams scrapping for the 5th and final playoff spot clash tonight in Collegeville. The Bullets have cooled off a little after a hot start, but they are still a year ahead of schedule with a second year head coach and play some real good basketball. Ursinus, man, the Bears are maddening. They have the shooters and the talent to run with anybody.....it just depends on what night you catch them on. The Bullets won the first meeting this year by 12, and I think I like Gettysburg again tonight, but this is another game where if Ursinus won, especially at home, I wouldn't be shocked.

Haverford @ Washington: Washington comes in as the third team locked into that three team tie for the 5th and final playoff spot. Haverford has been dramatically better this year than they've been in a long time and find themselves in the 3 seed, two games clear of the Mules and 2 games behind JHU, so probably locked into that 3 seed you would think. They also handled WAC in the first meeting this year. Washington, meanwhile, has gone 4-2 in their last 6 games after enduring a 1-9 stretch and, much like last season when they snuck into the playoffs, are peaking at the right time. Daniel Brown has taken the giant leap this year and the consistent senior leadership around him is paying dividends. As far as the game tonight? On paper, the Fords should win. But anything can happen in front of a loud Cain Athletic Center crowd, and WAC has had a decent amount of success at home against Haverford lately. This game, to me, is truly a toss up. If the Fords play the way they want to play, they win. If there's any sort of deviance from that, I think WAC takes it.

Either way, it's a big night of implications for that 5 seed! Also, another note on that.....Ursinus and Gettysburg both have to travel to Washington next Wednesday and Saturday. Think those games will be big?

[McBuckets]

Let's take a peek at tonight's games, shall we?

Johns Hopkins @ Dickinson: Having Bryce Allen back and full go definitely changes things for Dickinson, but they still don't have enough horses to run with the Blue Jays.

Franklin & Marshall @ McDaniel: I don't know what to think of either one of these teams. The Dips should be the more talented team, but they have been so inconsistent this year that it's maddening from the outside looking in. 43 points at home over the weekend to Washington, who would have thought? McDaniel, they play hard, but they just don't have the pieces to run. I think F&M wins tonight, but honestly a Green Terror win wouldn't surprise me at this point.

Muhlenberg @ Swarthmore: While the Mules aren't locked into the 4 seed by any means, being 2 games clear of 5th and 2 games out of third pretty much solidifies their position at this point. The Mules are playing good ball, but Swarthmore is a whole different animal. What concerns me about the Garnet is that, even though they keep winning, they've looked real vulnerable against a couple of recent opponents (WAC, Gettysburg, hell Ursinus had them down by 10 with 10 minutes left). At some point I keep waiting for them to slip up, but they haven't done it yet. Could the Mules do it tonight? If they take care of the ball and shoot well, they've got a chance, but I still believe the Garnet win tonight.

And now, we get to the two biggest games of the evening.....

Gettysburg @ Ursinus: Two of the three teams scrapping for the 5th and final playoff spot clash tonight in Collegeville. The Bullets have cooled off a little after a hot start, but they are still a year ahead of schedule with a second year head coach and play some real good basketball. Ursinus, man, the Bears are maddening. They have the shooters and the talent to run with anybody.....it just depends on what night you catch them on. The Bullets won the first meeting this year by 12, and I think I like Gettysburg again tonight, but this is another game where if Ursinus won, especially at home, I wouldn't be shocked.

Haverford @ Washington: Washington comes in as the third team locked into that three team tie for the 5th and final playoff spot. Haverford has been dramatically better this year than they've been in a long time and find themselves in the 3 seed, two games clear of the Mules and 2 games behind JHU, so probably locked into that 3 seed you would think. They also handled WAC in the first meeting this year. Washington, meanwhile, has gone 4-2 in their last 6 games after enduring a 1-9 stretch and, much like last season when they snuck into the playoffs, are peaking at the right time. Daniel Brown has taken the giant leap this year and the consistent senior leadership around him is paying dividends. As far as the game tonight? On paper, the Fords should win. But anything can happen in front of a loud Cain Athletic Center crowd, and WAC has had a decent amount of success at home against Haverford lately. This game, to me, is truly a toss up. If the Fords play the way they want to play, they win. If there's any sort of deviance from that, I think WAC takes it.

Either way, it's a big night of implications for that 5 seed! Also, another note on that.....Ursinus and Gettysburg both have to travel to Washington next Wednesday and Saturday. Think those games will be big?

Great write up...thanks for posting.

I am with you on JHU and F/M victories. 

The Mules have been playing well but it is so tough to hang with Swat at Tarble.  The Mules need a solid game out of their big guys to slow down the Swat bigs.  However, like you, I have the Garnet with the W.

As for the Bullets and the Bears, I see Ursinus winning and it could be a wide margin.  Bears are streaky but the Bullets do not play well away from home.

As for Haverford and WAC, the Shoreman have been playing well of late and Cain is a tough spot.  I see WAC in an upset.

Another fun night in the Centennial!

[noonhooper]

Tell me what, besides having the best individual players, Ursinus does as a team. They consistently place 2+ players on all-conference teams but, other than last season's third place finish, they have been in the play-in game or out of the tournament for a long time. I am not sure the question with their team is "will the shooters show up tonight" but "what style of play will they have this week"? It is a luxury at the D3 level to have players as athletic and talented on your roster but to me the Bears don't have any identity. They play a different kind of defense, run different plays, and will scrap everything depending on the matchup. Not the way to be consistently good IMO.

Swat and Haverford ran away with their games and Hopkins made it comfortable at the end. Now that Dickinson is full-strength it really looks like four tiers this year: Hopkins and Swat, then Haverford on their own level just below, then everyone else, then McDaniel.

That being said, Swat plays F&M with one day to prep AGAIN (I am not going to go back for the exact numbers but this happens at least once a year for no real reason) and that is when the Dips thrive. Everyone is talking about next Wednesday but tomorrow's game is a big one for #1!

[D.B. Cooper]

Lack of prep time matters for an unbeaten #1 balanced deep squad to beat a decimated sad looking F&M team?

Hard to believe any real concern, as it took foul trouble to SWATs big men last year vs a deeper, healthier, better Dip team to heave in a desperation shot at buzzer to pull of a miracle on hardwood last year at SWAT. This year with only one legit Dip inside sized player to counter the waves of garnet athletic big men and myriads of 3-point sharp shooters, plus a SWAT second team that could handily beat Dip starters, it looks like a rout alert. Like every other CC coach not much prep time needed to figure out to hound and wear down only Dip player who could hurt them and can create his own shot. Although same coach was on the bench running team last year it is likely the help during season prepping by GRob helped make upset happen.

My line (prep time or none) is SWAT -29.5, sad to say as an alumni and big fan going back to 1st of 5 Dip Final Fours in 1978-9 season. I wonder if my lifespan includes seeing a 6th trip back one day.

[ronk]

Lack of prep time matters for an unbeaten #1 balanced deep squad to beat a decimated sad looking F&M team?

Hard to believe any real concern, as it took foul trouble to SWATs big men last year vs a deeper, healthier, better Dip team to heave in a desperation shot at buzzer to pull of a miracle on hardwood last year at SWAT. This year with only one legit Dip inside sized player to counter the waves of garnet athletic big men and myriads of 3-point sharp shooters, plus a SWAT second team that could handily beat Dip starters, it looks like a rout alert. Like every other CC coach not much prep time needed to figure out to hound and wear down only Dip player who could hurt them and can create his own shot. Although same coach was on the bench running team last year it is likely the help during season prepping by GRob helped make upset happen.

My line (prep time or none) is SWAT -29.5, sad to say as an alumni and big fan going back to 1st of 5 Dip Final Fours in 1978-9 season. I wonder if my lifespan includes seeing a 6th trip back one day.

I'm wondering the same about a 5th trip for Scranton- 2020 would be 32 years since the last. 
Actually, this special year there won't be a final 4 weekend, only a final 2.

[D3RetiredHooper]

Big one Wednesday! Swarthmore has had some close calls the second time through Centennial play.  Will Hopkins be the one to knock them off?

Big part will be how Swat shoots from the perimeter.  They, like most teams, seem to shoot much more effectively at home than on the road (32.8% from 3 on road compared to 38% at home).  That stat alone makes this game mean even more for home court advantage in the Centennial playoffs!  Does anyone know the tie breaking procedure if both teams end 17-1

Hopkins, on the other hand, shot 6-26 from distance the first game. Odds are they will have to shoot better than that to knock off the Garnet.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Tiebreaker is a coin flip.

And Swarthmore to me seems like a lot of teams that have adopted more analytics in the game ... Hopkins may be onboard as well. They look to shoot either outside the three point arc or inside the defensive arc (per se). Nothing midrange at all. It is consider, analytically, to a wasted shot.

[CCD3Basketball]

Wednesday night is coming! Another very important night in the CC. Lets get to it....

McDaniel @ Gettysburg: The Bullets are in need of a big win as they try to keep pack with Ursinus and Washington in the race for the 5 seed and are still licking their wounds after a couple of losses in a row. Getting McDaniel at home should be the remedy they need heading into another big matchup with Washington on the road on Saturday.

Dickinson @ Franklin & Marshall: These two teams go to battle with both pretty much out of the playoff picture. When's the last time that happened? We saw the Bryce Allen effect for Dickinson on Saturday as the Red Devils got up by 20 and held off a rally to hand a surprising loss to Ursinus. Will it be enough to lift them over an underpowering F&M team this year? This one came down to the wire the first time these teams met this year in Carlisle (F&M needed double OT, but picked up the win), and I think this one will be close too. Allen will be the best player on the floor, but Kupa I think will get a little bit more help and F&M completes the sweep (which means Dickinson will probably win now).

Haverford @ Muhlenberg: If the Mules are going to have ANY chance of a first round bye, they have to win this game....and probably the rest of their games too (they are currently three games behind Haverford with four games to go). A win by the Fords locks up a first round bye and most likely the 3 seed (barring a collapse by JHU or Swat). The Mules should be safe in terms of the playoffs (two games ahead of 5th) and are still in the drivers seat for being the home team in the 4/5 game, so a loss to the Fords here won't necessarily kill them. Which is a good thing, because I think Haverford wins. Speaking of Haverford, Coach Doherty has to be the CC Coach Of The Year, right? He graduates a pair of 1,000+ point scorers from a season ago and still has the Fords two wins shy of the school record for wins in a year with four games to go. Yes, I know the Garnet haven't lost yet, but they were expected to be really good. Haverford, on the other hand, was NOT expected to be the 3 seed.

Now, for the two biggest games of the night.....

Ursinus @ Washington: The frustrating season for the Bears continues. Top two scorers in the Centennial in Ryan Hughes and Ryan McTamney, and yet this group is so all over the place on a week by week....heck, even a game by game basis. Saturday was another example of that. As for Washington, a 4-2 stretch, with the losses coming in games in which they were right in it to the end against Muhlenberg and Swarthmore...have been followed up by two straight losses to Haverford and Johns Hopkins in which the Shoremen were down by 20 in the opening half in both and never recovered. The good thing is that everyone around them took losses as well, so as a result Ursinus is just one game ahead of the Shoremen for the 5 seed, and also level with Gettysburg in the standings as well. Three teams for one spot, separated by one game. How about that? Anyways....I know I've said this before but it's going to come down to which Ursinus team shows up. If the Bears make shots and build a lead early, it might be tough for WAC to recover. If the Shoremen make a couple big plays early and get what's sure to be a fired up student section into it, it's game on. Washington hasn't beaten Ursinus at home since Rob Nugent was still the head coach, but that's a streak I think comes to an end tomorrow night. I'll take Washington in an extremely close affair, and one that can honestly go either way. If the Bears win, it's probably game over for WAC in terms of the playoffs (they would be two back of Ursinus with three games to go, plus the Bears would have the season sweep). If WAC wins, it's a tie with three games to go, and if Gburg takes care of business against McDaniel, the Bullets are only one game behind.....oh and yeah by the way, WAC hosts Gettysburg on Saturday. C-Town can change everything in the course of four days!

#1 Swarthmore @ #7 Johns Hopkins: As important as Ursinus/WAC is for the last spot in the playoffs, this is the game of the year in the CC and it's at the opposite end of the spectrum. Swat can virtually lock up the one seed with the win, while JHU can pull into a tie for first with three games to go. But, this game is much bigger than that. This game features the two teams that have been the class of the Centennial all year, the nations number one and last undefeated team, traveling into what is expected to be a VERY hostile environment to take on the #7 team in the country that has only gotten better and better since their loss to Swat back on December 10th, and even that was just a five point affair that could have gone either way. While Swat has still been winning, they've gotten quite a few scares lately...WAC, Ursinus, Gettysburg and Muhlenberg in the last two weeks, just to name a few. Is that because the Garnet are showing signs of vulnerability, or because, like I've said before, they're just getting everyone's best shot because of that #1 in front of their name? As for Johns Hopkins, they have the best player in the Centennial Conference in Conner Delaney.....yes, I said it. While Zac O'Dell for Swarthmore is a fantastic player and an All-American, and rightfully so, might I add, is there any player in the conference...maybe even the country...more important to their team than Delaney is to the Blue Jays? We saw it last year, when Delaney went out, the Blue Jays were a completely different team. With him back and at 100% now? The Blue Jays are flying high and dangerous. This should be the game of the year and I would be surprised if it winds up in a blowout either way. The thing with Swat is, because of how disciplined they are, you have to be damn near perfect to beat them. And Johns Hopkins is a team that's almost perfect...these teams are 1-2 in the conference in virtually every statistical category....except for one thing: rebounding. Swarthmore is far and away the best rebounding team in the league, and while the Blue Jays are still technically 2nd, the margin is staggering. JHU is +3.9, while the Garnet are a staggering +10.4. All it takes is a couple of rebounds in a row here and there to kickstart a small 4-0 or 6-0 spurt, and while that doesn't sound like a lot, in a game as close as this it makes all the difference. I think Swarthmore wins, but man, the margin is close. if the Blue Jays can be even or close to even in the rebounding battle, I like their chances. But I think Swarthmore does enough work on the glass to eke out a close win.


Enjoy the games everyone!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First Regional Rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-first

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Pretty good game at Goldfarb tonight. Swarthmore is clearly a bit better than Hopkins, especially inside. That said, JHU has a lot of things they do well and are growing into their own.

A hot second half that included Swat shooting 7-10 to JHU's 3-14 during a 19-4 (or worse) run to start ... is all Swat needed. JHU came back, but the hole was too deep at 20  points.

Hopkins played well... Swat finally played the game I was hoping from them the last few weeks.

[ronk]

 Looks like that Goldfarb's video screen could affect shooters(2nd half for visitors but that's why the home team is shooting at the other basket in the 2nd half).
Also, why did JHU wear dark uniforms @ home?
Delaney played well but Swarthmore had the advantage in the paint.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Looks like that Goldfarb's video screen could affect shooters(2nd half for visitors but that's why the home team is shooting at the other basket in the 2nd half).
Also, why did JHU wear dark uniforms @ home?
Delaney played well but Swarthmore had the advantage in the paint.

Haven't seen it affect shooters in any of my visits there. A number of gyms have screens now and I don't see it affecting them. Heck, even I don't notice it and I'm looking towards it for half the game.

It was "black out" night, thus the black uniforms.

[WUPHF]

Have you been in a gym with a screen?

I am not sure how it adds enough to the fan experience to justify the cost.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Have you been in a gym with a screen?

I am not sure how it adds enough to the fan experience to justify the cost.

Been to many ... and even ran the productions for one who added it. Fans get to see replays and such. Plus most use it in pregame and other things as well.

[WUPHF]

Thanks Dave!  I guess I can see that in a big Division I gym, but it seemed strange having it on the wall like that. 

I'll reserve judgement for when I get to a set-up like that.