BB: Pool B

[Boysofsummer21]

Crash well said and +1 as I could not agree more.

[Ralph Turner]

Pool B update.

Presentation has declared for the USCAA.  That is one less team in Pool B

http://www.pcsaints.com/schedule.aspx?path=baseball

[Ralph Turner]

Early Pool B watch in the South Region.

Huntingdon is 5-2 versus the SAA including 2 games to none over BSC.  They have one game against BSC and a 3-game sereis against Berry left.

They also have a 2-1 series against Emory.

They play a DH at Marietta on 03/23 after a single game at Muskingum on 03/22.

BSC's reputation notwithstanding, Huntingdon certainly looks to be the strongest Pool B in the South at this time.

[Ralph Turner]

Pool B's in the first regional rankings

Central Region
5 Washington U. 19-7 20-11

Mideast Region
5 Case 20-8 22-9

New York Region
1 Ithaca 17-2 25-6
6 St. John Fisher 13-9 17-12

South Region
2 Huntingdon 26-8 27-9
3 Millsaps 25-7 28-10

[Ralph Turner]

There is a pretty good chance that a Pool B team might earn a Pool C bid, again this year!

[forheavendial4999]

Case keeps getting rained out of chances to prove themselves.

[ADL70]

Case keeps getting rained out of chances to prove themselves.

Being 1-1 v ME #4 Wooster,  2-0 v C #5 WUStL, and 2-1 v ME #9 John Carroll; I don't see what CWRU had to prove against Muskingum or Ohio Northern.  Too bad today's DH v Denison is rained out though.

[forheavendial4999]

Case keeps getting rained out of chances to prove themselves.

Being 1-1 v ME #4 Wooster,  2-0 v C #5 WUStL, and 2-1 v ME #9 John Carroll; I don't see what CWRU had to prove against Muskingum or Ohio Northern.  Too bad today's DH v Denison is rained out though.

Going deep into their staff, IMO would have showed something I'm not sure has shown up yet. They can beat most anyone with Gish, but to do well in the regional you have to be able to win games with your 3rd and 4th starters against good teams and their 3rd and 4th starters. Case often faces reserve pitching because they're playing teams that have conference games.

I expected Case to be ranked higher in the region, but I imagine this might be part of why they weren't. They're a weird case (no pun intended) in that they have winning records against Washington U and St. John Fisher, but overall weaker SOS and not much different regional record. Going to be tough to differentiate between them as it stands, so getting some more wins would have been a help going into tough DHs against B-W and Marietta.

Looks like Case would be in a scenario battling for Pool C bids in what looks like a pretty tough Pool C this year. Who knows how that'll turn out.

[JohnnyU]

IMO, Ithaca and Huntingdon are safe. Huntingdon is done and there's nothing Ithaca can do in its final four games to not be a lock for Pool B.

From the SOS page:
Team   Record   Win%   OWP   OOWP   SOS
13 Ithaca   22-2   0.917   .5839 (19)   0.5499   0.573
49 Huntingdon   28-8   0.778   .5606 (49)   0.5245   0.549
199 Millsaps   29-8   0.784   .5033 (203)   0.5127   0.506
33 Case Western Reserve   22-10   0.688   .5605 (50)   0.5411   0.554
17 Washington U.   21-10   0.677   .5880 (16)   0.5355   0.57
10 St. John Fisher   16-10   0.615   .5997 (10)   0.52   0.573
150 Birmingham-Southern   27-12   0.692   .5191 (145)   0.509   0.516


That leaves Case Western Reserve, Washington U., Millsaps, St. John Fisher, and I also think Birmingham-Southern has an outside chance at remaining in the Pool B picture.

Millsaps has a weak SOS, but it will improve with the SAA tourney. An 0-2 or 1-2 performance might take them out of Pool B but I think they're in good shape because of getting #3 ranking in the South. If they were in another region, I wouldn't be so high on them. I think the South is weak this year.

Case will be improving its SOS with games against Baldwin-Wallace and Marietta. If they can split those games, I think they're in good shape for the last spot.

Washington U.'s SOS will probably not change much. I think they need to do slightly better than Case because of the head-to-head losses.

St. John Fisher needs some other teams to falter ahead of them, as their SOS will take a hit over their final games and their win% isn't outstanding.

If Birmingham-Southern can sweep through the SAA tourney, they might be back in business, but even if they do, it's a long shot.

Pool B's in the first regional rankings

Central Region
5 Washington U. 19-7 20-11

Mideast Region
5 Case 20-8 22-9

New York Region
1 Ithaca 17-2 25-6
6 St. John Fisher 13-9 17-12

South Region
2 Huntingdon 26-8 27-9
3 Millsaps 25-7 28-10

[forheavendial4999]

Yep, pretty much the situation. I don't think Birmingham has much of a chance, really. Would be hard to put them in over Washington or Case.

I think Millsaps will probably be in good shape. If there are 3 Pool Bs, it's pretty easy to see who they'll be. If there are 4, well I'd like to hear the debate on Case vs. Washington.

Case has the better opportunity to strengthen their resume playing at Marietta, but also the higher degree of difficulty to do so. Washington did not really help themselves with their road performance at Chicago over the weekend.

Fisher having lost 2 of 3 to Case makes for an odd situation -- it's head to head, but it's out of region...when does that get considered if at all?

[Ralph Turner]

Yep, pretty much the situation. I don't think Birmingham has much of a chance, really. Would be hard to put them in over Washington or Case.

I think Millsaps will probably be in good shape. If there are 3 Pool Bs, it's pretty easy to see who they'll be. If there are 4, well I'd like to hear the debate on Case vs. Washington.

Case has the better opportunity to strengthen their resume playing at Marietta, but also the higher degree of difficulty to do so. Washington did not really help themselves with their road performance at Chicago over the weekend.

Fisher having lost 2 of 3 to Case makes for an odd situation -- it's head to head, but it's out of region...when does that get considered if at all?

Head-to head out-of-region is secondary criteria.  I think that the committee will consider that after one of those teams has earned a bid.  If those are in the mix for the 4th slot, then I think that the committee will end up going for head-to-head in a 3-game series.

The change in the winning percentage for one more win or one more loss on a 33-game schedule is only 0.030.  (On a 40-game schedule, it is only 0.025.)  Anything less than that is almost attributable to "rounding".

[forheavendial4999]

Yep, pretty much the situation. I don't think Birmingham has much of a chance, really. Would be hard to put them in over Washington or Case.

I think Millsaps will probably be in good shape. If there are 3 Pool Bs, it's pretty easy to see who they'll be. If there are 4, well I'd like to hear the debate on Case vs. Washington.

Case has the better opportunity to strengthen their resume playing at Marietta, but also the higher degree of difficulty to do so. Washington did not really help themselves with their road performance at Chicago over the weekend.

Fisher having lost 2 of 3 to Case makes for an odd situation -- it's head to head, but it's out of region...when does that get considered if at all?

Head-to head out-of-region is secondary criteria.  I think that the committee will consider that after one of those teams has earned a bid.  If those are in the mix for the 4th slot, then I think that the committee will end up going for head-to-head in a 3-game series.

The change in the winning percentage for one more win or one more loss on a 33-game schedule is only 0.030.  (On a 40-game schedule, it is only 0.025.)  Anything less than that is almost attributable to "rounding".

I'm not a huge head-to-head guy because sometimes you might get a #1 pitcher against a #7 or something. So I wouldn't necessarily say that it should be definitive.

Anyway, I'm honestly not sure what you're driving at about the change in winning percentage. Feel free to clarify...or not.

[AlleyCat]

Is Ithaca the # 1 Pool B team right now?

[Ralph Turner]

Pool B teams in the second Regional Rankings

Central
5 Washington U. 21-10 22-14

Mideast
5 Case 22-10 24-11

New York
1 Ithaca 22-2 30-6
5 St. John Fisher 16-10 22-13

South
1 Huntingdon 28-8 30-9
3 Millsaps 29-8 32-11

[forheavendial4999]

Pool B teams in the second Regional Rankings

Central
5 Washington U. 21-10 22-14

Mideast
5 Case 22-10 24-11

New York
1 Ithaca 22-2 30-6
5 St. John Fisher 16-10 22-13

South
1 Huntingdon 28-8 30-9
3 Millsaps 29-8 32-11

Pool C bids starting to look less certain. Millsaps has a weak SOS and Case, Washington and Fisher are riding the bubble because of too many losses. Bottom half of the region is an uncomfortable place to be this time of year.

Anyone ever find out how many Pool B bids there actually are?