BB: Regionals (West) 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

[CrashDavisD3]

It is not just Schreiner that kills; it is the 13 conference wins against teams with sub 500 records. That makes more than half of their in region wins against sub 500 teams. The SCAC west may be good competition; but it does not play well with the NCAA.

Chapman does not play Cal Tech or La Sierra both local teams to Chapman which always have sub .500 records. La Sierra is moving to NAIA in 2011.

Chapman in 2010 no longer plays Cal State East Bay since they moved to DII from DIII Which is always above .500 and did make it to several west regionals.

Chapman does play the rest of the SCIAC teams(Pomona, La Verne Claremont, Cal Lu, Redlands, Whittier, Occidental) but many times can not schedule 3 game series with each SCIAC team. 5 of those teams above .500 and 2 below)

It could be scheduling issues, or  the SCIAC this year went from 3 game to 4 games series with each conference member which would leave less dates and games available to play Chapman.

Chapman this year played 4 games with Linfield(NWC) 1 with Willamette(NWC), 3 with Menlo(IND).. UDallas(3), McMurray(ASC).   3 are above .500 and 2 are below .500.

Chapman also played DII Cal State Dominquez Hills(2010 West Playoff Team), PT Loma(2010 NAIA Championship Finalist team), NAIA Cal State San San Marcos and Westmont.

[CrashDavisD3]

It is not just Schreiner that kills; it is the 13 conference wins against teams with sub 500 records. That makes more than half of their in region wins against sub 500 teams. The SCAC west may be good competition; but it does not play well with the NCAA.

Please run the OWP numbers yourself from Appendix B of the Handbook.

By this time, using the system, I think that the NCAA is aware of how unreliable the OWP/OOWP is when evaluating isolated conferences such as the ASC, the SCIAC and the NWC.

Shucks, I haven't run the numbers, but I think that the OWP/OOWP for the New York Yankees was only about .497 last season.    

It looks like the OWP/OOWP/SOS just seem to distort things sometimes and causes the teams on the bubble to miss or teams to get regionally ranked lower just because they happen to be a conference that is has alot of sub .500 teams. Not sure what other system the NCAA could go to but the old fashion W/L thing...

[JohnnyU]

Rankings for West teams with the RPI scale .75*SOS+.25*Win%

1. Chapman   0.607
2. Linfield   0.574
3. Pomona-Pitzer   0.567
4. Texas-Tyler   0.559
5. Mississippi College   0.557
6. Trinity (Texas)   0.544
7. Cal Lutheran   0.542
8. Redlands   0.536
9. Pacific Lutheran   0.535
10. Texas Lutheran   0.528
11. George Fox   0.528

(Just eyeballing and subjective opinion, but I think no region gets hurt by the OWP/OOWP system more than the West)

[Ralph Turner]

Rankings for West teams with the RPI scale .75*SOS+.25*Win%

1. Chapman   0.607
2. Linfield   0.574
3. Pomona-Pitzer   0.567
4. Texas-Tyler   0.559
5. Mississippi College   0.557
6. Trinity (Texas)   0.544
7. Cal Lutheran   0.542
8. Redlands   0.536
9. Pacific Lutheran   0.535
10. Texas Lutheran   0.528
11. George Fox   0.528

(Just eyeballing and subjective opinion, but I think no region gets hurt by the OWP/OOWP system more than the West)

Team	SOS	2nd regional ranking	Status
1. Chapman	0.607	1. Chapman 23-4 26-8	Pool B
2. Linfield	0.574	2. Linfield 28-7 30-10	NWC Clinched
3. Pomona-Pitzer	0.567	3. Pomona-Pitzer 27-7 29-9	SCIAC Clinched
4. Texas-Tyler	0.559	Not ranked	ASC Tourney
5. Mississippi College	0.557	4. Mississippi College 30-4 34-7	ASC Tourney
6. Trinity (Texas)	0.544	5. Trinity (Texas) 28-6 32-7	SCAC Clinched
*	*	6. Texas Lutheran 28-11 31-11	ASC Tourney

[tigerfan_2001]

Rankings for West teams with the RPI scale .75*SOS+.25*Win%

1. Chapman   0.607
2. Linfield   0.574
3. Pomona-Pitzer   0.567
4. Texas-Tyler   0.559
5. Mississippi College   0.557
6. Trinity (Texas)   0.544
7. Cal Lutheran   0.542
8. Redlands   0.536
9. Pacific Lutheran   0.535
10. Texas Lutheran   0.528
11. George Fox   0.528

(Just eyeballing and subjective opinion, but I think no region gets hurt by the OWP/OOWP system more than the West)

With the RPI...is it better to play good teams and lose than to play bad teams and win, if the SOS is 75% of the formula?

[TexasBB]

The regional rankings have TLU ranked and UTT not. UTT has a better overall record and W-L in the region but lost twice to TLU early in the season. I am a big UTT fan but do not disagree with the ranking. Head on head competion must weigh more heavily.  The ASC tournmanent is this weekend and both UTT and TLU are in it and have a chance to win it. Both are champions of their respective divisions and both have won over 30 games this season. If MC wins the tournament and either UTT or TLU finish second they should be the 6th pick for the region IMO.

[Ralph Turner]

Rankings for West teams with the RPI scale .75*SOS+.25*Win%

1. Chapman   0.607
2. Linfield   0.574
3. Pomona-Pitzer   0.567
4. Texas-Tyler   0.559
5. Mississippi College   0.557
6. Trinity (Texas)   0.544
7. Cal Lutheran   0.542
8. Redlands   0.536
9. Pacific Lutheran   0.535
10. Texas Lutheran   0.528
11. George Fox   0.528

(Just eyeballing and subjective opinion, but I think no region gets hurt by the OWP/OOWP system more than the West)

With the RPI...is it better to play good teams and lose than to play bad teams and win, if the SOS is 75% of the formula?

Play a competitive schedule.  Look at the perrenial powers in the region and play them.

Former McMurry Coach Lee Driggers knew how to showcase his team.  He commonly would catch solid teams on the west coast or in Hawai'i in the early season.  He would play a Chapman, or a George Fox or a Claremont-Mudd.

Look at each game yourself.  You go to Chapman and lose a series 2 games to 1.  What do you think about that series?  "Hey that team is competitive with Chapman.  We know what they are like!"  If you have played several of the best teams in the region, and you have played competitively against them, then the committee sees that.

You have to be realistic about Pool C, tho'.  There are only 15 bids for 320 teams that don't get an "A" or a "B".  Practically, in D-III Pool C is for the really solid teams that just did not quite earn the Pool A.  In D-1, e.g., the SEC or the Big 12 may get 4-5 bids.  That is not the case in D-III.

[golden_dome]

It has taken me four years of watching to figure out how the "system" works. It is become clear to me that if you are a west region team; it is far better to be an independent; not in a conference and hope that the schools administration and alumni will support the program. You have to give Chapman credit; they have figured out how the system works and have built their program with the objective of getting to the tournament and winning.

If your in the west; it does not pay to play "local" teams that are weak. Yet that is the only choice that many teams face. Be independent; get on the plane and travel to other western programs that value competition. If a cold weather team wants to visit your warm weather location; you have to question the value.

The D3 formula works where there is a high concentration of schools such that travel and choice can be made. But if you are a western team with only a few schools in your conference; you will pay a price at tournament time.

The primary advantage Chapman has by being an independent is they don't have to play the worst teams in a conference. I'm familiar with MS College so I can use them as comparison, but I would assume Trinity is in a similar boat to MC.

Chapman has only played ten losing teams among their 27 regional games. MS College has played 20 losing teams in their 34 regional games, but if you remove the bottom seven games then the schedules are quite similar at the top.

If MS College only counted their top 27 regional games, they would face 13 losing teams,  7 teams slightly above .500, and 7 more teams in the .667 range or better. MC is 5-2 against those 7 elite games and 4-2 against regionally ranked teams. ( really would be 5-2 if Birmingham Southern could be ranked). They would have a SOS around .525-.535 in those 27 games. In MC's case, the combined regional record of those bottom seven opponents is 39-179.

Of Chapman's 27 regional games they've played 10 losing teams, nine teams slightly above .500, and eight games against teams above .667. They are 5-3 in those 8 elite games, and 4-3 against regionally ranked teams. They have a .545 SOS.

There's just not much difference outside of MC having to play the worst teams in the conference. Both teams would have identical 23-4 regional records with very similar criteria but the seven blowout wins over terrible teams kill MC. Nothing you can do about it, committee members probably don't get an opportunity to consider common sense reasoning like that because it's not official criteria and they focus on what they are instructed to look at.  I would feel pretty confident that the same argument could be made for Trinity.

[Ralph Turner]

.... I would feel pretty confident that the same argument could be made for Trinity.

and Linfield and Pomona-Pitzer, except Linfield and P-P played Chapman.

Very very smart by Linfield Coach Scott Brosius.

IMHO, the two best coaches in the West Region now are Coach Tereschuk Chapman and Coach Brosius.

A smart thing for 2 ASC teams (that will not be playing each other in a crossover series) to do would be to go to Chapman and play a round robin with Chapman and another good west coast team from the SCIAC or the NWC.

That is 3 more opponents who get added into the OWP/OOWP calculations.

Or go to the Metrodome in February and catch CSS, St Thomas and St Olaf.  Those are in-region games, too.

[dahlby]

Ralph,

The system for tourney selection is what it is. I like your idea(s) that a team take the lead in determining its own future by rethinking their scheduling patterns. Several teams, such as MC and Linfield do travel  out (down) here and pick up early season games against the stronger west coast teams.
Chapman usually schedules tough early season opponents, as do several SCIAC teams.

Second guessing the system only frustrates posters, because this board can't make changes to the system. Although it does allow for healthy debate.

[tigerfan_2001]

I think what it comes down to, ultamitely, is money.  Aside from the Schreiner schedule, TU played everyone in Texas.  I guess Coach Scannell could have swapped Schreiner and UTT, to play the most competitive schedule.  Another thing to consider is that TU started conference play the 2nd weekend of the year and only had 3 open weekends all year.  They played DeSales one of those, which isn't in region but usually against a regionally ranked team.  Not having open weekends, you have to play Tuesday games and those need to be somewhat close because of classes.  Also, having the Millspas games rained out at the end really hurt.

Again, I am not complaining about TU schedule, it is what it is.  Win the tourney and get a bid.  If TU ends up the 5th seed in the west regional tourney, that will bum me out.  Call me crazy, but I would rather be the 6th seed and play Chapman first, with Klimesh on the mound....

[Bmo]

After reading some posts on the Central Regional board, I think I might have been misreading the OWP calculation methodology.  I assumed that each in-region "game" counted against OWP, but actually it seems to be each in region "opponent" regardless of the number of games between opponents.

That nuance makes a pretty big difference for Trinity; it actually puts their OWP at over 500 on my quick and dirty spreadsheet.  Probably not exact, but definitely closer to 500 than the 450 they are currently listed as on the SOS table.

Not trying to open up a can of worms, but which way is correct?  Would love for some to check my math in this case. 

[infielddad]

.... I would feel pretty confident that the same argument could be made for Trinity.

and Linfield and Pomona-Pitzer, except Linfield and P-P played Chapman.

Very very smart by Linfield Coach Scott Brosius.

IMHO, the two best coaches in the West Region now are Coach Tereschuk Chapman and Coach Brosius.

A smart thing for 2 ASC teams (that will not be playing each other in a crossover series) to do would be to go to Chapman and play a round robin with Chapman and another good west coast team from the SCIAC or the NWC.

That is 3 more opponents who get added into the OWP/OOWP calculations.

Or go to the Metrodome in February and catch CSS, St Thomas and St Olaf.  Those are in-region games, too.

Ralph, One can't argue with those two coaches being at the top.
However, I know I am preaching to the choir when I say the best of DIII coaches still has a non-baseball constraint and that is budget.
Coach Scannell would love to travel to CA. or Atlanta, for instance for a major trip/competition.  He did it once, in 2001, when the team went to Emory so they could play Emory, Montclair State and Virginia Weslyan and get national exposure, SOS, and show his team where they need to be to compete. The problem was that 4 day trip for 3 games used nearly 50% of his total budget.
In 2004, he had a trip planned to CA. with games scheduled to play Chapman, CLU and P-P.  He had to cancel it in January. One reason..budget.
On the TU website, there are major developments in the soccer facility that seem to have the support of the new TU President.
If those truly are a reflection of a new President and a change in attitude on the importance of sports at TU in their overall approach to a college experience, my hope is that will allow Coach Scannell to be able to make that trip, or attract others to San Antonio that he could not do before.

[Ralph Turner]

After reading some posts on the Central Regional board, I think I might have been misreading the OWP calculation methodology.  I assumed that each in-region "game" counted against OWP, but actually it seems to be each in region "opponent" regardless of the number of games between opponents.

That nuance makes a pretty big difference for Trinity; it actually puts their OWP at over 500 on my quick and dirty spreadsheet.  Probably not exact, but definitely closer to 500 than the 450 they are currently listed as on the SOS table.

Not trying to open up a can of worms, but which way is correct?  Would love for some to check my math in this case. 

Post #18, which cites the Handbook.

[Ralph Turner]

Yes, infielddad.  

What surprises me is that Trinity Athletics fans have not started an effective 501(c)3 thru which to funnel these monies.

I think that we do a very good job of playing all of the Texas teams.  TU, SW and AC all play enough midweek games that we get to see how deep the respective teams are.  That 4th starter is where we seem to be weak on a national basis.

McMurry had 13 unique West Region opponents in the regular season.

Trinity had 11; 5 SCAC-West, 5 ASC-West and University of Dallas.

Southwestern had 12; 5 SCAC-West, 7 ASC-West teams.