BB: Regionals (West) 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011

[golden_dome]

Latest regional rankings.

West Region    In-Region    Overall Record
1. Chapman            25-5      30-9
2. Linfield                    28-7    30-10
3. Pomona-Pitzer    27-7    29-9
4. Texas-Tyler        31-9    35-10
5. Mississippi College    32-6    36-9
6. Trinity (Texas)    28-6    32-7

I don't agree with Pomona-Pitzer ahead of the two ASC teams, but other than that it's about how I thought it should go. I didn't agree with Linfield either a few weeks ago but they've earned it going 8-2 in their final ten games against Chapman, George Fox and Pacific Lutheran. I wonder who the #7 team would be?

[CrashDavisD3]

Latest regional rankings.

West Region    In-Region    Overall Record
1. Chapman            25-5      30-9
2. Linfield                    28-7    30-10
3. Pomona-Pitzer    27-7    29-9
4. Texas-Tyler        31-9    35-10
5. Mississippi College    32-6    36-9
6. Trinity (Texas)    28-6    32-7

I don't agree with Pomona-Pitzer ahead of the two ASC teams, but other than that it's about how I thought it should go. I didn't agree with Linfield either a few weeks ago but they've earned it going 8-2 in their final ten games against Chapman, George Fox and Pacific Lutheran. I wonder who the #7 team would be?

#7 could be real important and could move into the #6 seed if Mississippi gets sent to another region. Could make the matchups game 1 must different than you see here.

[TexasBB]

The west coast teams are all ranked ahead of the Texas and ASC teams in the region. The records don't necessarily indicate that ranking as Trinity and MC both have better in region records than all of the west coast teams except for Chapman. I am sure part of the reason is the lack of performance historically by the ASC and other Texas teams in the regional tournament. Until the ASC and Trinity proves they can actually win a regional tournamnet this will not change.

[Just_Some_Guy]

The west coast teams are all ranked ahead of the Texas and ASC teams in the region. The records don't necessarily indicate that ranking as Trinity and MC both have better in region records than all of the west coast teams except for Chapman. I am sure part of the reason is the lack of performance historically by the ASC and other Texas teams in the regional tournament. Until the ASC and Trinity proves they can actually win a regional tournamnet this will not change.

Eh, I don't know if that's the line of thinking.

Trinity is runner up to George Fox in '04
TLU is runner up to Chapman in '05
TLU is runner up to Chapman in '06
Pac Lu is runner up to Chapman in '07
Trinity is runner up to Chapman in '08
George Fox is runner up to Chapman in '09

In the last five years nobody save Chapman has proven they can win the West regional and the the ASC and the SCAC have represented just fine in comparison to the NWC. If any conference has yet to make a serious run it's the SCIAC.

JSG

[d3baseballnut]

I think that is changing this year.

This is the toughest West Regional in some time for Chapman.

A team besides Chapman is flying to Appleton

[Ron Boerger]

The west coast teams are all ranked ahead of the Texas and ASC teams in the region. The records don't necessarily indicate that ranking as Trinity and MC both have better in region records than all of the west coast teams except for Chapman. I am sure part of the reason is the lack of performance historically by the ASC and other Texas teams in the regional tournament. Until the ASC and Trinity proves they can actually win a regional tournamnet this will not change.

Rankings don't take "reputation" or "history" into account; Trinity and the ASC teams lose out on OWP and OOWP.   MC and TU actually have a better record against in-region ranked teams than any of the other ranked teams, but it's not enough to make up the OWP/OOWP disparity.  Not playing the three games against Millsaps at the end of the season really hurt Trinity's OWP.

All that said, in this observer's eyes they are over-emphasizing OWP/OOWP; records and performance against regionally ranked teams should count as much but that surely doesn't seem to be the case.  Here are the stats the NCAA used in this week's rankings:

               Reg.    Tot               In Reg     vs Reg.
#  School          W-L    W-L   OWP   OOWP    SOS*    Ranked Teams
===================================================================
1. Chapman        25-5  30- 9  0.577  0.508  0.554    4-3-0 (.571)
2. Linfield       28-7  30-10  0.522  0.502  0.515    2-2-0 (.500)
3. Pomona-Pitzer  27-7  29- 9  0.501  0.515  0.506    1-2-0 (.333)
4. Texas-Tyler    31-9  35-10  0.538  0.497  0.525    3-4-0 (.429)
5. Miss College   32-6  36- 9  0.486  0.518  0.496    4-1-0 (.800)
6. Trinity (TX)   28-6  32- 7  0.446  0.518  0.470    3-1-0 (.750)

* - "Weighted OWP-OOWP"

[CrashDavisD3]

The west coast teams are all ranked ahead of the Texas and ASC teams in the region. The records don't necessarily indicate that ranking as Trinity and MC both have better in region records than all of the west coast teams except for Chapman. I am sure part of the reason is the lack of performance historically by the ASC and other Texas teams in the regional tournament. Until the ASC and Trinity proves they can actually win a regional tournamnet this will not change.

Rankings don't take "reputation" or "history" into account; Trinity and the ASC teams lose out on OWP and OOWP.   MC and TU actually have a better record against in-region ranked teams than any of the other ranked teams, but it's not enough to make up the OWP/OOWP disparity.  Not playing the three games against Millsaps at the end of the season really hurt Trinity's OWP.

All that said, in this observer's eyes they are over-emphasizing OWP/OOWP; records and performance against regionally ranked teams should count as much but that surely doesn't seem to be the case.  Here are the stats the NCAA used in this week's rankings:

               Reg.    Tot               In Reg     vs Reg.
#  School          W-L    W-L   OWP   OOWP    SOS*    Ranked Teams
===================================================================
1. Chapman        25-5  30- 9  0.577  0.508  0.554    4-3-0 (.571)
2. Linfield       28-7  30-10  0.522  0.502  0.515    2-2-0 (.500)
3. Pomona-Pitzer  27-7  29- 9  0.501  0.515  0.506    1-2-0 (.333)
4. Texas-Tyler    31-9  35-10  0.538  0.497  0.525    3-4-0 (.429)
5. Miss College   32-6  36- 9  0.486  0.518  0.496    4-1-0 (.800)
6. Trinity (TX)   28-6  32- 7  0.446  0.518  0.470    3-1-0 (.750)

* - "Weighted OWP-OOWP"

I agree with you on the OWP/OOWP/SOS.....Lower numbers are a product of having to play teams in conference with poor records and do not truly reflect the relative strength of a team.

I personally like record of against regionally ranked teams and in-region winning percentage to
to used before OWP/OOWP/SOS which should be more of a tie breaker type factor....but to use this number also does not make sense if teams have not played the same number games against regionally ranked teams.....In the example given teams could have additional losses if they played the same # of games against regionally ranked or more wins...A inexact science at best. I really like an earlier example of your record vs against 30, 25, 20 win teams.....but.....

BUT once your at the regional you can throw these numbers out the door since you have to win it on the field and honestly it dont matter if your a #1 seed or a #6 seed, you got to win it on the field to get to Appleton and nobody really cares about your reputation or history or what you have done in prior years.

[Ron Boerger]

So let's look at P-P (#3) and Trinity (#6):

In-region:  P-P  .794, TU  .824
Overall:  P-P .763, TU .821
In-reg SOS:  P-P .506, TU .470
vs. Regionally Ranked:  P-P .333, TU .750

So why is P-P ranked so much higher?   a .036 differential in SOS outweighs everything else?  Nuts.  You can make a similar (and in some ways superior) comparison between MC and P-P. 

[CrashDavisD3]

So let's look at P-P (#3) and Trinity (#6):

In-region:  P-P  .794, TU  .824
Overall:  P-P .763, TU .821
In-reg SOS:  P-P .506, TU .470
vs. Regionally Ranked:  P-P .333, TU .750

So why is P-P ranked so much higher?   a .036 differential in SOS outweighs everything else?  Nuts.  You can make a similar (and in some ways superior) comparison between MC and P-P. 

Math does not explain the why's in the cases cited. I always scratch my head too.....
It seems as always personal bias, opinions somehow gets in the way of what makes sense...Not sure if you can ever remove that with humans involved.

Once again I think the focus is get to the dance and prove where you belong. on the field..After its all done nobody cares if your ranked 6 or 1 if you dont go to Appleton..Look at last year rankings before the regional last year and look where they finished.

[Just_Some_Guy]

I think that is changing this year.

This is the toughest West Regional in some time for Chapman.

A team besides Chapman is flying to Appleton

I was thinking about this last night, but there's certainly not a clear candidate to win it. I think it'll be dependent on Ruah winning game #1 for them. I don't think they have the depth (i.e. the horses Klovstad, Drag, Kitchens, Yacko) to bring back later in order to win 2 in a row against 1 team the way they did against TLU in '05 and Pac Lutheran in '07.

McGee, Levitt, Osaki are all guys that these teams will be able to get to.

The thing is that most of these teams don't have a lot of depth after 2 guys.

Is Linfield the most likely to upset? Pomona wouldn't scare me at all, especially once Colvin is done. Tyler played well in the ASC tournament, but I don't think they have the pitching to get it done, and while TU has better sticks I'm not sure they do either. IF Mississippi's plane does land out west and Bennett thinks he can go and Seamen/Cowart are fresh and there's a hint of Prescott being back I think they have a chance. But that's a lot of "ands."

Should be a great regional.

JSG

[golden_dome]

So let's look at P-P (#3) and Trinity (#6):

In-region:  P-P  .794, TU  .824
Overall:  P-P .763, TU .821
In-reg SOS:  P-P .506, TU .470
vs. Regionally Ranked:  P-P .333, TU .750

So why is P-P ranked so much higher?   a .036 differential in SOS outweighs everything else?  Nuts.  You can make a similar (and in some ways superior) comparison between MC and P-P. 

Ron,
I agree with that. MC is behind PP because of a weaker schedule as well? Based on my understanding MC is actually 6-4 against regionally ranked teams, I don't know where where the 4-1 is from. And honestly, it's really 7-4 practically because they beat Birmingham Southern who does count as a regional game and everyone knows they are the #1 team in the South.

And that's not completely fair to PP because the eight games against Redlands and Cal Lutheran were tough, regardless if they are ranked. My problem is how MC can have such a weak SOS when the truth is that MC has played one of the tougher schedules in the country and probably has more wins against top teams than just about anybody.

And it's not anything against the CA teams, I know they will probably get the short end when national selection comes up along with TLU.

It gets harder every year to follow this stuff, it's like banging your head against a wall. I just can't decide if I get more frustrated with the actual process or its ambiguous implementation by different committees. It's probably both.

[BigPoppa]

All of the MC vs PP vs TLU vs XYZ State vs anyone else comparisons say one thing... SoS is valued way above anything else in the committee's eyes.

Bodes well for teams with a solid SoS that fall into Pool C.

[CrashDavisD3]

Weather looking better..

Hope it holds up or improves...
http://www.accuweather.com/us/or/mcminnville/97128/forecast-month.asp

[CrashDavisD3]

ITS OFFICIAL  

Hosted by Linfield College, McMinnville, Oregon

1.   Chapman (30-9)
2.   Linfield (30-10)
3.   Pomona-Pitzer (29-9)
4.   Texas-Tyler (35-10)
5.   Mississippi College (36-9)
6.   Trinity (Texas) (32-7)

Rain predicted for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Monday. No rain on Sunday

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/97128

[wildcat11]

Rain predicted for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Monday. No rain on Sunday

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/97128

Ahhh...most of it looks like showers...not a big deal this time of the year.