BB: Regionals (South) Danville '08, Salisbury '09, Methodist '10, Rhodes '11

[Ralph Turner]

After reading the NCAA handbook today, I'm starting to think that neither of the two SU's (Salisbury and Shenandoah) will be heading to Millington.  The handbook says that keeping teams on buses is a priority.  If they are going to pay to fly CNU and RMC out - and I understand they are for CNU at least, they surely don't want to do that for 3 let alone 4 teams.  I also think making two top 5 teams play each other potentially 6 times in a season, is flat out wrong.  

Here's my latest guess:

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Emory
5) SLAIC Winner
6) Randolph-Macon

NoVa, Please consider how Maryville and Emory get their bids.

At this time, I am thinking that the 2 Pool B bids will come down to Piedmont, CWRU and Chapman.

Everyone else needs to look at the Pool C bids.  I have posted my impression of the Pool C bids on the Daily Dose, but one big thing changed this weekend.  McMurry eliminated UTT in 2 games in the first round of UT-Tyler.  UT-Tyler Patriots seem to have lost much of their luster.

I had Maryville on the bubble, getting the 13th Pool C bid.  We still have about 15 tourneys in which the upsets haven't occurred yet.  UT-Tyler was the first "bubble-buster".

[forheavendial4999]

After reading the NCAA handbook today, I'm starting to think that neither of the two SU's (Salisbury and Shenandoah) will be heading to Millington.  The handbook says that keeping teams on buses is a priority.  If they are going to pay to fly CNU and RMC out - and I understand they are for CNU at least, they surely don't want to do that for 3 let alone 4 teams.  I also think making two top 5 teams play each other potentially 6 times in a season, is flat out wrong.  

Here's my latest guess:

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Emory
5) SLAIC Winner
6) Randolph-Macon

I don't think Emory makes it, but other than that, this makes sense.

I would watch the HCAC tournament. Your Emory replacement could come from there. Or UT-Tyler, if they are still in.

[OshDude]

I doubt that the NCAA flies a team to the South Regional that can bus elsewhere. Unless it breaks just so and a flight is needed to fill the South (if that's even possible), I'd be surprised if CNU, Shenandoah and/or Randolph-Macon are in Millington.

My early guess is that CNU and RMC are at the Mid-Atlantic Regional and Shenandoah is at the New York Regional. The Millington Regional has the potential to be rather weak, but limiting flights probably supersedes that consideration.

Potential Millington teams that I see so far before the Pool C's start piling up:
Wabash
Piedmont
Texas-Tyler
Maryville
Emory
Washington

[forheavendial4999]

Isn't there precedent for that though from when they moved Linfield?

[OshDude]

Isn't there precedent for that though from when they moved Linfield?

If I understand your question, the difference was Linfield had to fly somewhere, anywhere. The 2008 West Regional was in Abilene, and Linfield went to Moline instead. The 2011 teams already in from the South can bus to multiple regionals. If you can bus, chances are you're gonna bus.

Someone can correct me here, but I'm pretty sure the only flights the NCAA has granted were to teams that absolutely had to fly.

[forheavendial4999]

Isn't there precedent for that though from when they moved Linfield?

If I understand your question, the difference was Linfield had to fly somewhere, anywhere. The 2008 West Regional was in Abilene, and Linfield went to Moline instead. The 2011 teams already in from the South can bus to multiple regionals. If you can bus, chances are you're gonna bus.

Someone can correct me here, but I'm pretty sure the only flights the NCAA has granted were to teams that absolutely had to fly.

So then no one in the West could have bussed anywhere? I guess that actually makes sense now that I think about it...

I can't imagine them sending a team to another region that would have been a 1 seed in their home region to not be a 1 seed. Though the way things are looking, Kean may not be a 1 seed over CNU anymore. But I hope the Millington regional doesn't end up too weak, and for that reason I hope they do pony up to send CNU out there.

[narch]

this was on the usasac board, but i thought i'd post it here as the discussion about regional selection is more germane to this board

Salisbury dominated the Monarchs this weekend.  Salisbury's closer, Drew Baldwin, was outstanding- the Monarchs couldn't do anything with him- in game 1 he closed the game striking out two- in game 2, he came into the game in the 7th with bases loaded and 1 out- he struck out Inghram and Thigpen in the bottom of the 7th, 3 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th- he retired 8 straight.  Brian Green hit two bombs in game 2.  Salisbury deserves to be in the regionals.

i can't say that i disagree...they'll need to jump maryville and emory in the regional rankings (as well as mu, but i think that's a foregone conclusion) - the fact that both of those teams (emory and maryville) are pool b teams that are close to a regional site which might be difficult to fill without flights complicates the issue

comparing the three teams on merit alone, i think ssu gets the nod over the other 2:
m'ville: 22-12 (.647) vs. .548 OWP, 66 SOS rank
emory: 24-13 (.649) vs. .542 OWP, 70 SOS rank
ssu: 24-10 (.706) vs. .543 OWP, 85 SOS rank

ssu does have two big regional games left against hopkins (24-8 in region) and montclair (12-10 in region)...winning both i think would make ssu a slam dunk for a regional bid – win, lose or draw, hopkins will help ssu's OWP and montclair will help ssu's OOWP – maryville and emory both appear to be done (there is nothing more on their schedule)

[Ralph Turner]

Pool B watch for the South Region teams...

Chapman swept the UDallas series last weekend.  They play one at home and a DH away versus Redlands this weekend.

[Bmo]

So flood waters are apparently rising in Millington.  Not to disregard the possible toll on life and property, but I wonder what the possible contingency plans might be for the regional.  Not sure if the stadium is even close to the impacted area but google maps puts it on the river side of the city. 

[forheavendial4999]

So flood waters are apparently rising in Millington.  Not to disregard the possible toll on life and property, but I wonder what the possible contingency plans might be for the regional.  Not sure if the stadium is even close to the impacted area but google maps puts it on the river side of the city. 

Millington is definitely in a flood prone area.

The Naval base at Millington has been closed because of flooding and many residents evacuated.

I don't know how the stadium area is affected.

[narch]

this is SO bogus...the south region committee should be ashamed

SOUTH
1 Christopher Newport 29-5 39-5
2 Shenandoah 30-5 34-5
3 Piedmont 29-11 31-13
4 Salisbury 24-10 25-11
5 Rhodes 23-17 24-20
6 Emory 24-13 26-17

rhodes has absolutely no merit on this list, let alone in front of emory...how can they substantiate the lynx in any way?

emory should be ahead of rhodes, and i think both mu and maryville should be, as well...

here is how the three stack up

methodist: 46 SOS rank, .576 win %, .565/.538/.556 (owp, oowp, owp+oowp)
maryville: 62 SOS rank, .647 win %, .550/.551/.550
rhodes: 77 SOS rank, .575 win %, .539/.545/.541

maryville beat rhodes head to head, as well

the ONLY thing that rhodes has vs. maryville or methodist is proximity to usa stadium...hmmmm

[NoVa Baseball]

I'm getting kinda worried about the Millington Regional even being playable.  Read an article today that says the river will crest at 48' on Wednesday and could stay at the crest level for 7 days.  It also says the zip code of the stadium is going to be flooded.  If this is true, I can't see how they can hold this regional when those poor folks are going to have lots more to worry about than baseball.  Is there any precedent for this - has a regional had to move or worse, been cancelled and had teams dispersed to other regions?

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2011/may/05/forecast-of-water-damage-reduced/?partner=RSS

[Ralph Turner]

I'm getting kinda worried about the Millington Regional even being playable.  Read an article today that says the river will crest at 48' on Wednesday and could stay at the crest level for 7 days.  It also says the zip code of the stadium is going to be flooded.  If this is true, I can't see how they can hold this regional when those poor folks are going to have lots more to worry about than baseball.  Is there any precedent for this - has a regional had to move or worse, been cancelled and had teams dispersed to other regions?

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2011/may/05/forecast-of-water-damage-reduced/?partner=RSS

McMurry moved the Regional from Abilene to Hart Park (Chapman) in 2007 because of concerns for inclement weather.

[forheavendial4999]

A friend of mine is working at the Gulf South baseball tournament in Millington this week.

[NoVa Baseball]

Forheaven:  What's he saying about the conditions there?  They are saying thousands may be living in tents after next week.  I'm thinking hotels that aren't affected are going to swamped with these folks.  It would be great if you could get your friend to post the situation or relay it through you.  From what Ralph says, Rhodes could move the tourney to other fields nearby - any logical candidates?