BB: Regionals (South) Danville '08, Salisbury '09, Methodist '10, Rhodes '11

[Boysofsummer21]

Well big weekend for the Monarchs this weekend. I think if they sweep they will be in.

[NoVa Baseball]

Folks:  I know this is all speculation (with the possible exception of CNU and RMC).  I notice that everyone seems to be putting south region only teams in the regional forecast nowadays.  I still think they may shift Shenandoah out of the region but that loss to FS sure didn't help in that regard.  Here's my latest forecast -Blast away:

1) CNU
2) Piedmont
3) Salisbury
4) Methodist
5) SLAIC Winner
6) Randolph-Macon

[narch]

From The NCAA --

South

1 Christopher Newport       29-5    39-5
2 Shenandoah                   29-5    33-5
3 Piedmont                       25-11  27-13
4 Maryville (Tenn.)            21-10  24-13
5 Methodist                      19-12  28-14
6 Emory                           24-13  26-17

Link http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3

i was afraid the committee would be fooled by the m'ville winning percentage...with their proximity to millington, they're in if they don't go 0-2 in the gsac tourney

[NoVa Baseball]

If Maryville gets in, what are the chanced the SLAIC Winner goes elsewhere?  Them getting in does make sense if the NCAA starts pricing out travel and realizes that CNU and RMC are going to cost them a bit.  Have to say, that does look like a nice South regional line-up:

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Salisbury
5) Methodist/Emory
6) Randoph-Macon

[narch]

If Maryville gets in, what are the chanced the SLAIC Winner goes elsewhere?  Them getting in does make sense if the NCAA starts pricing out travel and realizes that CNU and RMC are going to cost them a bit.  Have to say, that does look like a nice South regional line-up:

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Salisbury
5) Methodist/Emory
6) Randoph-Macon

here's the thing about this...salisbury won't even be on the table unless they get into the regional rankings (which could happen if they sweep the monarchs)...if they do sweep the monarchs, then i don't see mu getting a bid

[NoVa Baseball]

Ahhh ..  Good point Narch.  This is a sweep or go home weekend for the Monarchs AND the Seagulls.  That would appear to make Maryville and Emory more likely. 

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Emory
5) Methodist/Salisbury
6) Randolph-Macon

[forheavendial4999]

If Maryville gets in, what are the chanced the SLAIC Winner goes elsewhere? 

I'd say darned near zero.

[Ralph Turner]

If Maryville gets in, what are the chanced the SLAIC Winner goes elsewhere? 

I'd say darned near zero.

Heaven makes a good point.  You have sites in Millington, TN, Illinois Wesleyan and UW-Whitewater, and there may be 18 teams within 500 miles of those locations.  Avoiding plane flights is a key budgetary constraint on the playoffs, so I think that the committee will be moving teams westward from the more densely "populated" areas of D-III.

There will be three brackets of 8, one bracket of 7, and four brackets of 6.

I think that the brackets of 6 go to the South, Central Midwest and West Regionals.

[narch]

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Emory
5) Methodist/Salisbury
6) Randolph-Macon

the other problem i have with this is the ncaa sending the #1 seed in the south on an 800+ mile trip, while the #2 seed in the south gets a much closer trip - i think piedmont, m'ville and emory are virtual locks to be sent to millington if selected (only piedmont among these three is pretty much a lock, in my mind) - i don't know what the solution is, but i think you could see transylvania (#5 rank in the mideast) or washington U (#6 rank in the central region) slide into this regional in place of cnu if the ncaa is more concerned about cost than balancing regional strength - putting cnu or shenandoah in the mideast or mid atlantic (where they fit better geographically) makes either of those regions a complete BEAST

[Boysofsummer21]

Narch,
I would say that CNU is a lock to go to Millington, don't see the NCAA sending tournament winners outside their region. At large bids I can see going to other regions, so get those Monarchs ready for this weekend!!!

[narch]

Narch,
I would say that CNU is a lock to go to Millington, don't see the NCAA sending tournament winners outside their region. At large bids I can see going to other regions, so get those Monarchs ready for this weekend!!!

i'm not saying cnu won't go to millington, i'm saying that if cnu is a lock to travel 800+ miles, then i think it's fair to think that the committee would send shenandoah to millington, as well...just doesn't seem right to send the #1 ranked team (and tournament winner) on a long trip and keep the #2 ranked team (and tournament loser) closer to home...is there any historical indication that pool a winners are kept in their own region?

[focusandfire]

It is still too early to tell who will make it to the South Region.  Look what happened last year.  Below is the first 2010 regional ranking:

South Region  In-Region Record  Overall Record
1. Shenandoah 26-7 34-8
2. Mary Washington 19-9 24-10
3. Millsaps 23-12 25-15
4. Methodist 23-10 27-11
5. LaGrange 24-16 26-17
6. York (Pennsylvania) 23-12 23-12


Here's who was actually selected to the South regional tournament in 2010:

1. Shenandoah (34-8)

2. Salisbury (27-11)

3. Mary Washington (26-12)

4. York (Pennsylvania) (28-14)

5. LaGrange (26-17)

6. Bridgewater (Virginia) (23-18-1)


Shenendoah and Salisbury made it to the regional championship.

Having said that- this is an important weekend for Salisbury and Methodist.

[forheavendial4999]

Narch,
I would say that CNU is a lock to go to Millington, don't see the NCAA sending tournament winners outside their region. At large bids I can see going to other regions, so get those Monarchs ready for this weekend!!!

i'm not saying cnu won't go to millington, i'm saying that if cnu is a lock to travel 800+ miles, then i think it's fair to think that the committee would send shenandoah to millington, as well...just doesn't seem right to send the #1 ranked team (and tournament winner) on a long trip and keep the #2 ranked team (and tournament loser) closer to home...is there any historical indication that pool a winners are kept in their own region?

What are the alternatives, to ship the two best teams out of the South region? That doesn't seem very fair to any other regional, least of which the one in Marietta that almost certainly would get one of them? Whoever the default 1 seed in Millington is would be quite happy at that!

Would you give Shenandoah a 1 seed that they didn't really earn and give Christopher Newport a 2 seed (I think they would be ranked behind Marietta and Kean due to strength of schedule)?

Would you pay to travel both teams when you don't really have to?

They may very well pick the last option, but I think the most likely one is the one most have posited.

[narch]

What are the alternatives, to ship the two best teams out of the South region? That doesn't seem very fair to any other regional, least of which the one in Marietta that almost certainly would get one of them? Whoever the default 1 seed in Millington is would be quite happy at that!

Would you give Shenandoah a 1 seed that they didn't really earn and give Christopher Newport a 2 seed (I think they would be ranked behind Marietta and Kean due to strength of schedule)?

Would you pay to travel both teams when you don't really have to?

They may very well pick the last option, but I think the most likely one is the one most have posited.
[/quote]i think both will wind up in millington if cnu is in millington...and shenandoah isn't a #1 seed in any region, in my mind (unless they came to millington and cnu went elsewhere), but this is all speculation anyway...i could be 100% wrong

[NoVa Baseball]

After reading the NCAA handbook today, I'm starting to think that neither of the two SU's (Salisbury and Shenandoah) will be heading to Millington.  The handbook says that keeping teams on buses is a priority.  If they are going to pay to fly CNU and RMC out - and I understand they are for CNU at least, they surely don't want to do that for 3 let alone 4 teams.  I also think making two top 5 teams play each other potentially 6 times in a season, is flat out wrong.  

Here's my latest guess:

1) CNU
2) Peidmont
3) Maryville
4) Emory
5) SLAIC Winner
6) Randolph-Macon