BB: Regionals (Mid-Atlantic) Newark '08, Lakewood '09, Trenton '10, Kean '11

[Hammer Ball]

1  Kean      1.498
2  Rowan      1.396
3  Alvernia   1.36
4  New Jersey   1.34
5  Ramapo   1.306
6  Keystone   1.298
7  Moravian   1.291
8  Misericordia   1.286
9  Haverford   1.274
10 Neumann   1.255
11 Pen St-Altoona   1.231
12 Johns Hopkins   1.229
13 Scranton   1.193
14 Rutgers-Newark   1.186

If the above are the rankings by In Region Win% + In Region SOS, how does the committee come up with the below Rankings?(Did Rutgers-Newark really jump 5 spots, or are my calculations off? (The latter is a real possibility)):

1 Kean
2 Rowan
3 Keystone
4 Alvernia
5 New Jersey
6 Ramapo
7 Moravian
8 Misericordia
9 Rutgers-Newark

The Committee is constituted as listed below:
Jack McKiernan, Kean University, chair
Bob Altieri, Deleware Valley College
Dave Beccaria, Haverford College
Kevin Kime, Mount Aloysius College
Yogi Lutz, Alvernia University
Vincent Masco, Drew Universit
Mark Rizzi, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Newark
Jamie Shevchik, Keystone College

[forheavendial4999]

I think while your numbers are excellent help and proved out quite well, they're not going to be totally accurate.

Winning percentage has a higher level of variability than does SOS, especially among regional caliber teams. Regional caliber teams could have anywhere from like a .650 to a (realistically) .900 percentage. The worst regionally ranked SOS was .493, and the best in the country only .609, so a simple addition of the two favors a better record against worse competition.

You might try weighting SOS a bit more or record a bit less, and see if you can get a formula that matches the regional rankings (then try that for every other region ). I suspect there is no magic bullet, but you could probably get a little closer.

Still appreciate the work you have done.

[Hammer Ball]

Heaven - tx for the suggestion - below is a weighted (1/3 win%, 2/3 sos) attempt.  Closer but not quite there.

Kean   0.68882
Rowan   0.66196
New Jersey   0.64654
Keystone   0.62894
Alvernia   0.62594
Ramapo   0.6054
Misericordia   0.60016
Moravian   0.59705
Neumann   0.59469
Haverford   0.58906
Rutgers-Newark   0.58212
Johns Hopkins   0.57727
Penn State-Altoona   0.57283
Scranton   0.56267
Although I have them up to 11, R-N's jump still does not compute for me.  Would it be cynical for me to point to the presence of 2 NJAC coaches on the committee as a possible explanation?

[forheavendial4999]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

[Ralph Turner]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

For the newbies, coaches know what they have to do with their non-conference schedule.

The Mid-Atlantic (and the Northeast) have the most opponent-rich environments.  It is easy to find solid above average teams that will good have OWP/OOWP's.

[Hammer Ball]

In the case of Haverford, it looks like they beat Rowan, at Rowan.  I understand from scouts in the area, the pitcher they beat, Arsi, is getting serious looks.  Does that get considered?

[Ralph Turner]

In the case of Haverford, it looks like they beat Rowan, at Rowan.  I understand from scouts in the area, the pitcher they beat, Arsi, is getting serious looks.  Does that get considered?

That one game, which meets the criteria  for "results vs in-region ranked opponents", is "one piece of the puzzle" for Haverford.   

[Hammer Ball]

Rutgers-Newark beat Penn State- Abington (distance between the 2 is about 90 minutes depending on traffic) is this in-region?

[Will2Win]

Rutgers-Newark beat Penn State- Abington (distance between the 2 is about 90 minutes depending on traffic) is this in-region?

I believe it is, as it falls under the within 200 mile rule. Institutions within 200 miles of one another are considered "in-region" to my knowledge...

[Ralph Turner]

Rutgers-Newark beat Penn State- Abington (distance between the 2 is about 90 minutes depending on traffic) is this in-region?

PSU-Abington is in year #2 of its provisional status.  Games versus Provisional Schools only count in years #3 and #4.  The game does not count in the regional records this year.

[Will2Win]

Rutgers-Newark beat Penn State- Abington (distance between the 2 is about 90 minutes depending on traffic) is this in-region?

PSU-Abington is in year #2 of its provisional status.  Games versus Provisional Schools only count in years #3 and #4.  The game does not count in the regional records this year.

Did not know PSU-Abington was provisional...makes sense. Thanks Ralph

[cs2to6]

How many teams make the Mid-Atlantic regional.  And of those, how many slots are taken by AQ qualifying conferences.  Stated differently, how many at large bids are there for the Mid-Atlantic region, and given its size would a worthy school possibly be sent to another region?

[John McGraw]

How many teams make the Mid-Atlantic regional.  And of those, how many slots are taken by AQ qualifying conferences.  Stated differently, how many at large bids are there for the Mid-Atlantic region, and given its size would a worthy school possibly be sent to another region?

The Mid-Atlantic regional is one of the largest along with New England. Usually a team or two ends up being shipped off to either New York or the South regional. The same can be said for New England though usually when an NE team is sent out of region, it goes to New York.

[Hammer Ball]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

For the newbies, coaches know what they have to do with their non-conference schedule.

The Mid-Atlantic (and the Northeast) have the most opponent-rich environments.  It is easy to find solid above average teams that will good have OWP/OOWP's.

Weighting IRSOS heavier than IRWin% presents 2 questions: 1st - Would'nt any weighting factor be arbitrary and thus unreliable?; and 2nd - are'nt you applying SOS twice if you weight it and then add it to Win%?

My head hurts.

[Hammer Ball]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

I took a look at the In Region/Out of Conference SOS for the 3 Schools you mentioned:

.512 14-3 (2 Rain Outs)
.513   7-4 (2 Rain Outs)
.531   7-1 (3 Rain outs)

Without looking match them up.