BB: Regionals (Mid-Atlantic) Newark '08, Lakewood '09, Trenton '10, Kean '11

[Ralph Turner]

My head hurts when I see that stuff, too. 

As I call it now, Haverford won't get a Pool C bid.

They weren't in the Regional Rankings the first time around.
They lost in the Conference tourney.

I will be surprised if they show up in the Regional Rankings for the next 2 weeks. 

[Hammer Ball]

My inquiry, and resulting analysis, was generated by confusion as to how Rutgers-Newark could be ranked as high as they were when the numbers did not seem to support such a jump.  The discussion that followed brought in some of the teams R-N may have jumped, including Haverford and Newman.  Teams such as Johns Hopkins, Penn State Altoona, La Roche and Montclair State may be deserving of an explanation as well.

[Ralph Turner]

My inquiry, and resulting analysis, was generated by confusion as to how Rutgers-Newark could be ranked as high as they were when the numbers did not seem to support such a jump.  The discussion that followed brought in some of the teams R-N may have jumped, including Haverford and Newman.  Teams such as Johns Hopkins, Penn State Altoona, La Roche and Montclair State may be deserving of an explanation as well.

Thanks, and let me look at it tonight.

[forheavendial4999]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

I took a look at the In Region/Out of Conference SOS for the 3 Schools you mentioned:

.512 14-3 (2 Rain Outs)
.513   7-4 (2 Rain Outs)
.531   7-1 (3 Rain outs)

Without looking match them up.

You're really going to say that RU-Newark playing in year-in, year-out the toughest league in the country doesn't matter?

I really wish there was a way to track how many times teams in good conferences see the other team's ace in a non-conference game with their like #5 going or something.

[cs2to6]

According to Rutgers Newark website, they lost to Alvernia on Sunday May 1st.

[Hammer Ball]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

I took a look at the In Region/Out of Conference SOS for the 3 Schools you mentioned:

.512 14-3 (2 Rain Outs)
.513   7-4 (2 Rain Outs)
.531   7-1 (3 Rain outs)

Without looking match them up.

You're really going to say that RU-Newark playing in year-in, year-out the toughest league in the country doesn't matter?

I really wish there was a way to track how many times teams in good conferences see the other team's ace in a non-conference game with their like #5 going or something.

Never said any team "doesn't matter", especially R-N (wife's school).  And only looking at 2011 and trying to understand how R-N was placed where they were in the first regional rankings.  Nothing more.

[forheavendial4999]

It seems the committees have put a lot (maybe too much) emphasis on schedule strength. It's a tough balance...teams can't help who is in their conference, but in a case like Haverford they just haven't played much of anyone in or out of league.

Obviously RU-Newark's strong schedule was deemed more worthy than Neumann and Haverford's wins over weaker competition.

I took a look at the In Region/Out of Conference SOS for the 3 Schools you mentioned:

.512 14-3 (2 Rain Outs)
.513   7-4 (2 Rain Outs)
.531   7-1 (3 Rain outs)

Without looking match them up.

You're really going to say that RU-Newark playing in year-in, year-out the toughest league in the country doesn't matter?

I really wish there was a way to track how many times teams in good conferences see the other team's ace in a non-conference game with their like #5 going or something.

Never said any team "doesn't matter", especially R-N (wife's school).  And only looking at 2011 and trying to understand how R-N was placed where they were in the first regional rankings.  Nothing more.

I didn't say that either. But the comparison you made eliminates the strongest part of RU-Newark's schedule, the NJAC, which is by far and away the best conference in the region. It's simply a comparison that doesn't tell the story.

[Hammer Ball]

I am certainly not the sharpest tool in the shed but the Mid-Atlantic Rankings do not make sense to me.  Purely by numbers (In-region Win% + In-Region SOS with no arbitrary weighting) the top 3 are on target but after that the numbers seem to lose importance.  The numbers for the top 15 would read(actual rank in parens):

Kean(1)  1.446
Rowan(2)  1.371
Alv(3)  1.362
Ram(6)  1.314
Mor(7)  1.313
Key(5)  1.311
NJ(4)  1.307
JHU(NR)  1.255
Frbg St.(8)  1.270
Hav(NR)  1.246
Neu(NR)  1.24
PSA(NR)  1.209
La Ro(NR)  1.195
PSB(NR)  1.164
RN(9) 1.158

(Yet to be factored in are the Playoff games and other season ending tilts. As an aside TCNJ's No.1 did not start in either playoff game, both of which they lost.)  Again I do not understand the jump of RN.  It can't be their record against in-region ranked opponents(the only other stat I can find published by the NCAA in this area) as it is .364 and, although better then the teams between it and F. St., only marginally so.  Also if that is the recognizing factor how does Key jump Mor.  Key has a .250 win% against in-region ranked opponents and Mor has .500.  Is this like electing the Pope?  We just trust they will get it right and wait for the white smoke without getting an explanation as to how they came to their decision?  The new corporate buzzword "transparency" has not made it to the NCAA(or the Vatican.)

[forheavendial4999]

It's been mentioned on other threads of this sort that the regional rankings are not a formula. They're the result of the committee analyzing and synthesizing that data, then reconciling it with their baseball knowledge and coming to a consensus. AT least that's what I assume it is, what it seems like it should be.

It is worth mentioning that Rutgers-Newark is still in the NJAC tournament, where Ramapo and New Jersey aren't. They've won 2 of 3 against Ramapo, split with Rowan, swept New Jersey, split with Redlands (not that that's included in the regional games).

They seem, like St. Thomas, to have taken some lumps early against an ambitious schedule, but have improved and done well in the last 25-30 games. Sweeps are hard to come by in the NJAC, especially against someone other than RU-Camden and New Jersey City.

If RU-Newark beats Montclair, they will play either Rowan or Kean for the right to play the other. If they get in the next two days a win over Montclair, and 2 of 3 over Rowan/Kean, I could see them making a case for a regional bid. Heck if they get 1 of 2 against those, they might be tough to deny. If they lose to Montclair, I think they're probably out.

[Ralph Turner]

Hammer Ball, Good Morning.

The Presidents of the NCAA have voted on the criteria.  The whole division has wanted to keep a human factor in the committee deliberations.

I fully expect arguments about the last 1-2 selections on the table in the committee meeting at the regional and national level.  However, you are inviting contentious debates from the losers of those arguments, either mathematical or subjective.

I think that Newark gets its "props" from in-region "results".  If you have 10-15 games in a season against regionally ranked opponents, then you have a very good idea of how that team has played. Going 5-10 against the Keans, Rowans, and TCNJ's of the region tells you more than the raw number in a formula (.333) suggests.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7278.8]Post #8 Criteria

[123youreout]

Ralph,
I was wondering if participation has been down on these boards over the year...
If anyone (as I) were not on hear before you may not know how to get here after the changes on d3baseball.com.  I finally saw the tab on the front but its not obvious.  Just a though.  I think there are a lot of people out there that would participate more if they had an easier time finding it. 

Besides that... Mid Atlantic look like a pretty competitive region with Kean, Rowan, Alvernia and JHU.  Thoughts on the most difficult region to get through?

Fan to remain anonymous and objective,

-123youreout

[BigPoppa]

Ralph,
I was wondering if participation has been down on these boards over the year...
If anyone (as I) were not on hear before you may not know how to get here after the changes on d3baseball.com.  I finally saw the tab on the front but its not obvious.  Just a though.  I think there are a lot of people out there that would participate more if they had an easier time finding it. 

Besides that... Mid Atlantic look like a pretty competitive region with Kean, Rowan, Alvernia and JHU.  Thoughts on the most difficult region to get through?

Fan to remain anonymous and objective,

-123youreout

They are attempting to eliminate the un-educated poster Congrats on passing the first test.

[ArkRiverSnake]

What do people think about the Alvernia JHU matchup?

[d3baseballnut]

What do people think about the Alvernia JHU matchup?

Could be the best matchup of the first round (in the country) - Kirk vs. Eliopolous

[John McGraw]

Ralph,
I was wondering if participation has been down on these boards over the year...
If anyone (as I) were not on hear before you may not know how to get here after the changes on d3baseball.com.  I finally saw the tab on the front but its not obvious.  Just a though.  I think there are a lot of people out there that would participate more if they had an easier time finding it. 

Besides that... Mid Atlantic look like a pretty competitive region with Kean, Rowan, Alvernia and JHU.  Thoughts on the most difficult region to get through?

Fan to remain anonymous and objective,

-123youreout

Ahem, we can see your school-issued e-mail address on your profile.