MBB: Great Northeast Athletic Conference

[uconn05]

Great preview Ankles... i agree with all of your picks.  Does the gnac go to the highest seed's court for the final four?

[UnsungHero11]

yes it does. the semi's will be at Emerson and Lasell, if they win, but like Ankles said, I can't see either team losing either.

[34whistle]

I agree! I don't see anyone but lasell and emerson in the finals.

[UnsungHero11]

good call ankles. looks like you're 3-0. Any predictions for the semi's? i say Emerson Lasell in the finals. should be a great end of the week no matter what teams advance

[crazyecbballfan823]

i'd say watch out for emmanuel...

[goldenpipes]

The semi's should be good - I don't think it's as clearcut as most make it out to be....yes, it could be Lasell-Emerson in the finals but any of the other matchups are just as feasible.

Gotta earn it to make it to Saturday.....can't wait for tomorrow night.

[broke_ya_ankles]

The 1st round went pretty much exactly how I envisioned it, the semis certainly look much more interesting....

I'll start out with the 2/3 matchup....

#2 Lasell hosts #3 Emmanuel:
This game certainly can go either way, I think Lasell certainly has a couple advantages starting with Crawford and Guitian.  A 6'5 guard and a 6'9 Forward/Center combining for 39.9ppg, and 17rpg will be very difficult to contain.  Powell does a more than adequate job of running things at the point so if Lasell does there thing it really doesnt matter what Emmanuel does because Lasell's best will beat Emmaneul's best any day of the week.  That being said Lasell doesnt always bring it like they need to, they have over the past month or so in rather convincing fashion.  The matchup 2 weeks ago I think is a good indicator of what is likely to happen in this game (lasell won 84-70 Guitian had a game high 26 and 17).  Emmanuel certainly has a shot but everything needs to go right and a few things need to go wrong for lasell, I just dont see that happening.  Lasell wins by 10+ but the game is much closer than the score will indicate.

#1 Emerson hosts #5 St. Joseph's:
This one I'm excited about.  First and foremost is Rouse going to be playing??  I didnt see his name in the box score...

I think his presence largely impacts this game one way or the other.  Lets examine both scenerios:
Rouse DOES play:
Emerson becomes a much bigger favorite.  At the beginning of the month the Monks visited Emerson and Emerson prevailed with a 10 point win, examining that game particularly on St. Joseph's side of things:
Anyone who has seen St. Joe's play knows they have 3 KEY players who must contribute if they are going to win against a great team like Emerson, Elbie Murphy, Alberto Rue (shooter), and Ray Eatmon.   In that early february matchup the trio put up less than stellar numbers:
Murphy:  6-13 FG, 1-5 3Pt, 20 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals
Rue: 3-6 FG, 2-3 3PT, 8 points, 3 rebounds
Eatmon:  1-8 FG, 2 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals

Murphys line isnt too bad, rather impressive actually very balanced, thats the type of player he is, but its important for Rue to stretch the defense by putting up 8-10 shots at least and with the way hes shot the 3 ball this year (51-110 3PT, 46%) 10+ shots isnt a bad idea.  Rue opens things up for Eatmon who shot 58% from the floor this year so his 1-8 showing was extremely uncharacteristic and cant be expected again.  It really starts with Murphy, if he does his part (18-22 points) grabs 5 or so rebounds and is an absolute hassle on defense he's putting the Monks in a situation to win, however it ends with the rest of the team.  Rue and Eatmon both need double figures efficiently and then they need an x-factor to step up and that could be one of 3 people, C. Davis, A. Davis, R. Mattison.  Most likely C. Davis.   So if St. Joes wins its because Murphy did his balanced line, Rue and Eatmon both hit double figures, and C. Davis stepped up with a big 8 points 6 rebounds off the bench. 

I personally don't see that happening as St. Joe's has just been far too inconsistent this year and Emerson has been just the opposite, very consistent.

If Rouse DOESNT play:
St. Joe's doesnt need to play quite so perfect they might be able to get by on their scrappy-ness.  They still need Murphy to come up big but to counteract that if Dawkins takes over Emerson still has got to be the favorite. 

I like Emerson, keeping about an 8 point lead all game, FT shooting in the final minutes stretches it to a 13 point win or so.

then its Emerson vs Lasell!!

[34whistle]

Ankles you nailed it with your preview.  I think Emmanuel is good, but not good enough to beat Lasell.  Their match up a few weeks ago really showed that when Lasell is on, they are the almost impossible to beat. I look forward to seeing Lasell  vs.  Emerson on Saturday

[UnsungHero11]

I like your insight Ankles, and i actually looked forward to reading. I must say tho, I do agree with you on the fact that Lasell has to bring it to beat Emmanuel. Although Lasell might be more talented, I must admit when it comes playoff time, Emmanuel is a completely different team. They somehow elevate their game throughout the playoffs every year to a higher level, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they win in upset fashion. I remember distinctly in last years semi's they were absolutely flawless when they took on top seeded Western New England, i believe they were close to 100% on their free throws and had less that 10 turnovers all game. I know for a fact they are gonna be pumped up to play especially since they were so close to the NCAA's and a GNAC title last year. Looks like tomorrow night should be interesting...

[crazyecbballfan823]

Thank you UnsugHero, I couldn't agree more. I think people are continuing to overlook the fact that the GNAC playoffs the last two years have not been consistent with predictions... let's see what happens tomorrow, it should be good!

[UnsungHero11]

Looks like Emerson/Lasell on Saturday Afternoon, but it also looks like Emmanuel and St. Joe's didn't go quietly. Any details on the games? I'm sure they were pretty good, and Saturday looks to be a great Championship game.

[broke_ya_ankles]

Emerson vs St. Joes couldnt have been more of what I thought would happen had I scripted the game.

Final Score 79-75

clearly St. Joseph's put themselves in a position to win losing by only 4, and how did they do it? Elbie Murphy led things for the monks with a josh smith esque line of 14pts, 4rebs, 3as, 2blks, 2stls.  Eatmon reached double figures (10 pts) as did  Rue (14 pts on 4-6 from 3PT).  The x-factors that stepped up for St. Joe's were somewhat of a surprise, but the starting backcourt of Vachon and Friend combined for 20 pts (10 apiece). 

The difference....
Bryan Rouse
absolute domination of efficiency.  28 points, 8 rebounds on 9-11 FG and 10-11 from the line.  All done in a modest 29 minutes. 

Sounds like a great battle and with St. Joe's having ZERO seniors on the roster and Sanicola sure to bring in some other freshmen ready to play right away I think the monks might be a favorite heading into next season.

Lasell wins by 9, pretty much no surprse, I have a feeling the game was a bit closer than 9 that FT at the end stretched the score out a bit.

Even with Rouse playing as he did against St. Joe's I'm just not sure Emerson will have the firepower to keep up with Lasell in the final.  Regardless, it should be a great game 

[goldenpipes]

Ankles -

I'm a bit surprised at that statement considering Emerson beat Lasell in Newton without Rouse and Messinger - considering they are both back and playing well, how can Emerson NOT have the firepower to win again? 2nd in the nation in FG% and 3-pt FG% - I think there's plenty of weapons for the Lions.

Great job with the previews - everything played out as you scripted. Tomorrow should be a great game.

**********************************************************************************

Even with Rouse playing as he did against St. Joe's I'm just not sure Emerson will have the firepower to keep up with Lasell in the final.  Regardless, it should be a great game.
[/quote]

[broke_ya_ankles]

perhaps firepower was the wrong word...
Emerson certainly has the offensive ability to offensively play with just about anyone due in large part to their efficiency (as you mentioned) the point I was eluding to is that Lasell is all about downright outscoring you, and over 15 of their last 16 games they have been very successful at that.  For the season on average Lasell takes 9 more FG attempts per game than Emerson does (63 attempts vs 54) 
Now that doesnt mean Lasell is for sure going to take more shots than Emerson their earlier matchup this year shows us.  And its worth pointing out the game story for that game:  Emerson won 83-79, and the box score shows about as dead even of a game as it could have possibly been.  Both teams took the exact same number of FG attempts, Emerson shot 33-57, Lasell 32-57.   Lasell killed Emerson on the boards (again no Rouse) 36-14.  The biggest thing in my eyes was the turnover situation, taking care of the basketball baby!  Lasell had 20 giveaways to Emersons 11.  and Emerson came away with 14 steals.   Also had Ben Chase not shot 12-16, 6-7 from 3PT en route to 30 points, Im pretty sure Emerson doesnt win.

For this upcoming championship game I expect this.
Lasell DOES put up at least 5 more FG attempts (which could be big).  Emerson shoots around 50-52% from the floor, Lasell shoots around 47-49%.  The boards get dominated by Guitian and Lasell (even with Rouse).  The Lasers hold Ben Chase in check (to an extent, no 6-7 from 3 stuff).  Emerson will remain very efficient from the field and the free throw line.  However I expect Lasell to limit their TO's to 15 or under.  Guitian and Crawford combine for at least 36 points and the supporting cast gets enough done to pull out the win.  Rouse, Shannon, Chase, and Dawkins will have solid games but it comes down to just one of them taking over which I just dont feel is going to happen (if it does my bets on Dawkins). 

My guess:
Final Score    Lasell 87  Emerson 83

[broke_ya_ankles]

Just wanted to pass this along for anyone who hadnt seen it yet, All Conference teams and awards were presented the other day....

First Team:
Jeremy Shannon Guard, Sophomore - Emerson
Rob Williams-Hinton Guard, Junior - Emmanuel
Japhet Kerr Guard, Senior - Johnson & Wales
Jose Guitian Center, Junior - Lasell
Jeff Carpenter Forward, Senior - Rivier

Second Team:
Ben Chase Forward Senior, - Emerson
Mack Spellman Forward, Junior - Emmanuel
Greg Samuels Forward, Senior - Johnson & Wales
Jaime Crawford Forward, Senior - Lasell
Elbie Murphy Forward, Junior - Saint Joseph's

Third Team:
Will Dawkins Guard, Senior - Emerson
Tirone McCray Forward, Senior - Johnson & Wales
Dwayne Powell Guard, Senior - Lasell
Jerrold Williams Guard, Junior - Norwich
Raymond Eatmon Forward, Sophomore - Saint Joseph's

Player of the Year:  Jeremy Shannon- Emerson

Rookie of the Year:  Chris Hanson- Daniel Webster

Defensive Player of the Year:  Jeremy Shannon- Emerson

Coach of the Year:  Hank Smith- Emerson