FB: Region 3 fan poll

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

I don't think HSC should be ranked but I think you make an assumption that HSC does not stack up well vs. GC.
Wabash would beat down any team in the odac and I understand you discount that L in vote but I'll be shocked if HSC does not beat GC on Nov. 7th, obviously I've been shocked before but if GC gives up 500 yards to SU their defense is going to struggle against HSC.

[jknezek]

Jk

I don't think HSC should be ranked but I think you make an assumption that HSC does not stack up well vs. GC.
Wabash would beat down any team in the odac and I understand you discount that L in vote but I'll be shocked if HSC does not beat GC on Nov. 7th, obviously I've been shocked before but if GC gives up 500 yards to SU their defense is going to struggle against HSC.

You mistake my point. I'm not making the assumption position by position, I'm making the assumption based on the facts we know. Here is what we know THIS year:

One common opponent, W&L.

Guilford went to Lexington, lost their all-conference QB in the second quarter for the game but not the season, and lost by 3 on a rainy, windy day that benefited a running team.

H-SC hosted W&L, ran their stud RB for 30+ touches, and lost by 7 on a glorious day that wouldn't have particularly helped an option team.

So, one team hosted and lost by 7 with very few extenuating circumstances that matter for the rest of the season and the other team traveled and lost by 3 with a couple of big extenuating circumstances that may not repeat.

If you are positioning these two teams, based on the only current data point, which one HAS to go ahead of the other?

Now, H-SC gets Shenandoah this weekend, Guilford gets R-MC. We'll get one more common opponent to play with, but with what we have right now Guilford compares favorably to H-SC by anyone looking at this objectively.

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

You explained it well and I'm with you, at least for the time being.

Two points to make:

1) There was nothing glorious about the day W&L beat HSC, nothing !!!
2) You're assuming I can be objective; I can't when it comes to odac football !!!!

[Ralph Turner]

#3 UMHB (South Region Fan Poll #1) hosts #24 Texas Lutheran (South Region Fan Poll #6).

Question to all the fans.  Please give us your opinion.

What is the final margin of victory, by what team, in this game, that is, a national #3 hosting a national #24?

Is the normal and statistically probable margin for the home team to win 17 points?

What margin of victory maintains both teams in the polls, UMHB #3 at national and at #1 in the Fan Poll and TLU at #24 nationally and at #6 in the South Region Fan Poll?

Thanks

This is a really good point, because I think you're driving at something that is also a pet peeve of mine: teams automatically being dropped from the poll after losses regardless of the quality of the result.  I think a loss at UMHB by 17 points absolutely should keep TLU where they are (although it should not just be about final MOV, but actual competitiveness of the game; I perceive it differently if the game is 21-14 at halftime with a final of 34-14 than if it's 34-0 at halftime with a final of 34-14.  One of those games was "competitive" and the other was clearly not).  Probably the only way I would hammer TLU is if they put up a real stinker, like a 60-point loss.

Ditto!  Thanks for making that point!

[Ralph Turner]

If TLU stays within 20 points of UMHB I probably won't move them at all. Sure they'll have 2 losses, but to teams ahead of them in the poll. They SHOULD lose those games. If they lose by 21 or more, I'll probably shift them down but not out. If they lose by 35, I'd probably move them out of my top 10 because I think other teams could probably get within 35 of UMHB and not have 2 losses. What do I expect to happen? They lose by 21.

So long as UMHB wins, I can't imagine moving them out of the 1 spot.

I have Berry, W&L, Chicago, CWRU in the bottom of my poll. Berry holds a pair of good wins in Chicago and Hendrix. Why are they ahead of W&L? Because W&L just made hard work of a team they shouldn't have. So even though Berry has a loss, it was week 1, and W&L struggled in Week 7. Chicago ahead of Case because they won. Case ahead of Guilford because they lost by 1 to a 7/8 team and Guilford lost by 2. In reality insignificant, but it's as good a reason as any to have them in front.

Case will need to stay somewhat close to W&J to hold off dropping out in favor of Guilford.

Why not Maryville? Because their loss was embarrassing. Just like I'd have dropped W&L cold if they had lost to a bad R-MC, and I did move the Generals down a spot for the struggle, M'ville has a stink from NC Wes and the Methodist dogfight.

Why not H-SC? Because they lost by more than Guilford to W&L, and it was at H-SC. Discounting the beat down Wabash gave them, they don't stack up well to Guilford and I have Guilford just missing out.

Gettysburg just got buried. That's an odd vote.

Just my thoughts.

Bottom of the poll is a convoluted mess. Thanks jk

[jknezek]

Jk

You explained it well and I'm with you, at least for the time being.

Two points to make:

1) There was nothing glorious about the day W&L beat HSC, nothing !!!
2) You're assuming I can be objective; I can't when it comes to odac football !!!!

LOL. Glorious is in the eye of the beholder! +K

[tigerFanAlso2]

Damn Minks

[jknezek]

Damn Minks

Funny about that nickname. I wore it with pride when I played club rugby but we rarely used it for anything else. I know it was a derogatory applied to W&L by VMI cadets, either before or after we named them rats, but it seemed pretty unused on campus when I was there except for the rugby team. I wonder if it is more prevalent now.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I don't think so. Goes back a few generations. Was not that prevalent when I was in school (class of '78); however very prevalent in the 50's & 60's, at least in Virginia.

[HSCTiger fan]

TFA2 GC actually gave up over 600 yards to SU.

JK who matches up with who in the ODAC always seems to be a week to week thing. GC runs a very similar offense to EH. The Quakers might beat HSC this year but IMO HSC's defense is much better suited to play GC than WL. Offensively HSC matches up very well against anyone in the ODAC.  GC had their QB last week when they scored 16 offensive points against BC. They've been out gained offensively in all 3 of their ODAC games - they are the only ODAC team to have not out gained another ODAC opponent. Certainly the Quakers are talented but they are not nearly as dominant looking since getting into conference play.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #8

1) UMHB             50    (1,1,1,1,1)
2)  TMC              44     (2,2,2,2,3)
3)  JHU                41    (2,3,3,3,3)
4)  HSU                35   (4,4,4,4,4)
5)  TLU                28    (5,5,5,6,6)

6)  W&L               24    (5,5,6,7,8)
7T)CWRU            16     (6,6,8,9,10)
7T)  Berry              16     (7,7,7,9,9)
9)  W&J                 9     (8,8,9,10,x)
10) Guilford          5      (7,10,x,x,x)

RV  Huntingdon    3      (9,10,x,x,x)
RV  HSC                3     (8,x,x,x,x)
RV   Maryville         1     (10,x,x,x,x)

[jknezek]

Yeesh. Those Regional Rankings aren't what I expected. Berry must really be paying for that week 1 loss to M'Ville and the Case/Chicago/Hendrix tangle as none of those teams end up ranked. W&L benefits from Guilford making the list and Moravian shows higher than I thought, but not surprised they made the list.

Key games this weekend:

Guilford hosting H-SC
Huntingdon hosting M'Ville
CWRU hosting TMC
ETBU hosting HSU

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

[Scots13]

Good to have the regional rankings come out and have good match ups the first week. Saturday will be exciting. I will have the computer, lap top, ipad, and phone running all afternoon.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #9

1)  HSU                  49         (1,1,1,1,2)
2)  UMHB                43         (2,2,2,2,4)
3)  TMC                   40        (1,3,3,4,4)
4)  JHU                    38        (3,3,3,4,4)
5)  TLU                    26        (5,5,6,6,7)

6)  W&L                   24        (5,5,6,6,8)
7)  CWRU                 22        (5,6,7,7,8)
8)  Berry                   12        (7,8,9,9,10)
9)  W&J                      8        (8,8,9,x,x)
10) Guilford               7         (7,9,10,x,x)

RV) Maryville TN           3      (8,x,x,x,x,x)
RV) Huntingdon           2      (10,10,x,x,x)
RV) Hampden-Sydney 1       (10,x,x,x,x)   

Thanks to ExTartanPlayer, hasanova, jknezek, Scots13.

[jknezek]

Had to think it over tonight before submitting my poll. Lot of jockeying around.