FB: Region 3 fan poll

[SaintsFAN]

Scheduling OOC has been a little different experience for TMC.  Both the SJF and the Wesley appearances were arranged shortly before the season.  Wesley was scheduled in the late Spring and the game took place opening weekend - this was after MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl.  SJF was just as hasty, the 2nd game of that series took place two years after the original game because of previous scheduling. 

TL/DR;  Thomas More has been bailed out of scheduling situations by adding teams they would play a few months later.  Some of these teams have been very good. 

Not everyone can do this and I get that.

[Scots13]

Of course, TMC has a President under contract until 2022, who's stated intention is to take the program to the next step - whatever that may be.  There are plans for stadium expansion and improvements, as well. 

It's getting to be a "have to" some places. Quite a few, if not most, ODAC schools have done some type of improvement over the last half decade and in the USAC we've seen Huntingdon put in a new turf and lights recently as well as Averett having a complete make-over and Ferrum upgrading as well. I believe Methodist just renovated their weight room and locker room. In the age we live in, those things matter to 17 and 18 year olds playing DIII. Nice stuff isn't just for the higher divisions. But, can you blame them? Maryville plays its Homecoming game tomorrow against Averett and there is going to be a gathering before the game to talk about the successes over the last couple years and the plans to upgrade facilities in the future (all sports, not just football). I'm excited to hear what they have to say.

As a side note and adding on the ODAC improvements--I went to the RMC/HSC game last year and was very impressed with the upgrades. Well done, Macon.

[ExTartanPlayer]

We can argue all day about these, and I'm not real interested in how everyone would adjust my tiers because I agree there is a ton of argumentation to be had, but this is how D3 football really looks. The gulf between the best of the best and the third tier is huge. It would be a huge upset for JHU to knock off a team in the tiers above them, though they have come close with Wesley a couple times. So being ranked around 10-15 makes sense to me. Taking a step above that would involve a huge change in quality.

I think this is the key point.  Whoever gets ranked in the 10-15 range (nationally) tends to look "over-ranked" because, to borrow my own phrase from earlier, the drop-off from #6 to #10 (most years) is actually larger than the drop-off from #10 to #25.  The same then happens in the RR's, too; a lot of times the #3 and #10 teams are actually a lot closer than the #3 team really is to the top team.

Right now, you could run any number of teams on the fringes of these RR's out there against teams in the middle and I'd expect a really good game.  Carnegie Mellon vs. Muhlenberg, W&J vs. ETBU, Berry vs. Thomas More...to be honest I would expect all of these to be pretty competitive games, maybe you'd stack one team as a 7-10 point favorite, but I don't think any of these matchups have a clear cut 100% slam-dunk winner beforehand.  But then if we sent literally anyone from this group out there against UMHB, there's a clear 28-point favorite.

[Ralph Turner]

We can argue all day about these, and I'm not real interested in how everyone would adjust my tiers because I agree there is a ton of argumentation to be had, but this is how D3 football really looks. The gulf between the best of the best and the third tier is huge. It would be a huge upset for JHU to knock off a team in the tiers above them, though they have come close with Wesley a couple times. So being ranked around 10-15 makes sense to me. Taking a step above that would involve a huge change in quality.

I think this is the key point.  Whoever gets ranked in the 10-15 range (nationally) tends to look "over-ranked" because, to borrow my own phrase from earlier, the drop-off from #6 to #10 (most years) is actually larger than the drop-off from #10 to #25.  The same then happens in the RR's, too; a lot of times the #3 and #10 teams are actually a lot closer than the #3 team really is to the top team.

Right now, you could run any number of teams on the fringes of these RR's out there against teams in the middle and I'd expect a really good game.  Carnegie Mellon vs. Muhlenberg, W&J vs. ETBU, Berry vs. Thomas More...to be honest I would expect all of these to be pretty competitive games, maybe you'd stack one team as a 7-10 point favorite, but I don't think any of these matchups have a clear cut 100% slam-dunk winner beforehand.  But then if we sent literally anyone from this group out there against UMHB, there's a clear 28-point favorite.

+1!

[ADL70]

PAC Commish was interviewed during the CWRU-Geneva broadcast and said that coaches voted before the season and the first breaker is "W/L % of teams you beat."  Assuming he meant conf w/l, all you have to look at is the team you didn't play. If CWRU and TMC win out, and W&J has better record than Geneva, then TMC gets AQ,  if Geneva, then CWRU gets AQ.

[SaintsFAN]

PAC Commish was interviewed during the CWRU-Geneva broadcast and said that coaches voted before the season and tie first breaker is "W/L % of teams you beat."  Assuming he meant conf w/l, all you have to look at is the team you didn't play. If CWRU and TMC win out, and W&J has better record than Geneva, then TMC gets AQ,  if Geneva, then CWRU gets AQ.

Well, Geneva needs to win each of their final 3 games to reach 5 wins; while W&J sits at 5-2 after today's loss to Westminster. 

[Ralph Turner]

Week #8 South Region Poll

This is all over the place!  16 15 teams are still getting ballots and only 6 5 on every ballot.

Thanks to my fellow pollsters: Hasanova, jknezek, roocru, Scots 13.

1)	UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)	HSU	44	2,2,2,2,3
3)	JHU	41	2,3,3,3,3
4)	Thomas More	35	4,4,4,4,4
5)	ETBU	29	5,5,5,5,6
.	.	.	.
6)	Muhlenberg	18	5,6,7,8,x
7T)	CWRU	15	6,7,8,8,x
7T)	Huntingdon	15	6,7,8,8,x
9)	Westminster PA	13	6,7,9,9,x
10)	Berry	4	9,10,10,x,x
.	.	.	.
RV)	Maryville TN	2	9,x,x,x,x
RV)	WashUStL	2	9,x,x,x,x
RV)	Hendrix	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)	Southwestern TX	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)	Wash & Lee	1	10,x,x,x,x
.	.	.	.

As always, corrections are appreciated.

[Scots13]

Look at that...every team on my ballot is ranked, just not in my order.
I can't vote for Maryville until we beat Huntingdon, especially given the fact we lost to Berry. Way too much youth (although very talented) right now.

Looks like Case took a hit from the Geneva game. W&J was my 11th team last week, but have fallen off the map. W&L has taken their place this week, although RMC is 60 minutes of game time from bumping them from the bubble. Can't wait for the Centre/Berry game for the SAA.

[jknezek]

Look at that...every team on my ballot is ranked, just not in my order.
I can't vote for Maryville until we beat Huntingdon, especially given the fact we lost to Berry. Way too much youth (although very talented) right now.

Looks like Case took a hit from the Geneva game. W&J was my 11th team last week, but have fallen off the map. W&L has taken their place this week, although RMC is 60 minutes of game time from bumping them from the bubble. Can't wait for the Centre/Berry game for the SAA.

Mine isn't too bad. An odd week for me. I moved HSU above JHU despite losing and moved CWRU down a few slots despite staying undefeated. I can't remember too many weeks where I've had that kind of combination. I still don't have much interest in Huntingdon over Maryville. Neither has a win that makes me take notice but Maryville's loss is to a better team, by fewer points. That being said, I have Berry at 10, so neither Huntingdon nor Maryville make my list.

At least I don't have to say I'm not the W&L voter this week since you copped to it... oh wait. Nevermind. If W&L takes down RMC this weekend I'll consider it, but it would still depend on a lot of other results. I'm the highest voter for Westminster and the only voter for Wash U. Though I wasn't real impressed with Wash U this weekend either. On the up side, we finally will get some SAA and SAA/PAC (old UAA) clarity with upcoming games between Westminster and Case, Case, Wash U and Hendrix, Berry and Centre, Centre and Hendrix. What are the odds they make it easy for us with a pair of dominant teams emerging from that tangle instead of an incestous knot? I'm thinking we get a knot.

My votes at two points in time:
10/24                                  Preseason
UMHB                                  UMHB
HSU                                     TMC
JHU                                      JHU
TMC                                     HSU
ETBU                                   W&J
Westminster                        W&L
Muhlenberg                          Huntingdon
CWRU                                  TLU
Wash U                                Hendrix
Berry                                    Muhlenberg


Two of my teams are still in the pre-season predicted position. 5 of my preseason predicted teams still show in my poll. Three of the five remaining are still in contention to be in my poll. W&J is kind of out of luck getting back onto my ballot, TLU has no shot. I should have paid more attention to TLU's schedule from the preseason get go. So overall, not awful from preseason to now, but not real good either.

[HansenRatings]

PAC Commish was interviewed during the CWRU-Geneva broadcast and said that coaches voted before the season and tie first breaker is "W/L % of teams you beat."  Assuming he meant conf w/l, all you have to look at is the team you didn't play. If CWRU and TMC win out, and W&J has better record than Geneva, then TMC gets AQ,  if Geneva, then CWRU gets AQ.

Well, Geneva needs to win each of their final 3 games to reach 5 wins; while W&J sits at 5-2 after today's loss to Westminster.

I have this tie-breaker incorporated into my projections, and CWRU is sitting at about 2% to earn the Pool A bid right now, despite 2-in-7 odds to finish with a perfect conference record.

[Ralph Turner]

It appears that I gave the only vote to an ODAC team.

By conference, I went ASC 3, Centennial  2, Pres AC 2, USA South 1, SAA 1 and ODAC 1.

CWRU almost played themselves out of their season.  My best guess for their hopes for the playoffs lies in going undefeated.

[jknezek]

Bottom of my poll got kicked around like an anthill again.

[Scots13]

Mine wasn't too bad, meaning I've had harder weeks to figure out what to do.

ETBU did not impress me this week in the shoot out against Louisiana College. CWRU bounced back after a disappointing win over Geneva. Centre has flown under the radar. Berry almost let one slip past them against Millsaps. Macon made up for the loss against E&H a few weeks back. Hendrix is out of the picture.

Huntingdon railed Greensboro (which was expected) and Maryville might have been looking forward to this week's game. USAC is locked up this week. Berry and Centre play Week 11--I'm leaning the Colonels' way for the SAA. R-MC has Guilford and HSC to finish league play.

[Ralph Turner]

The close call by CWRU against Geneva was enough for me to drop them off the ballot after Week #8.

I think that they have had their mid-season hiccup and now are ready to make the run to the end.

I think that they go undefeated and get a Pool C bid.

Fortunately, we get the formal Regional Rankings on Wednesday (which are different from the South Region Fan POLL).

For me, one 5-point road loss (how much is Home Field Advantage worth? 3 points?) to the #1 team in the Region puts HSU ahead of JHU, which probably will be #2 in the Rankings.

[SaintsFAN]

The close call by CWRU against Geneva was enough for me to drop them off the ballot after Week #8.

I think that they have had their mid-season hiccup and now are ready to make the run to the end.

I think that they go undefeated and get a Pool C bid.

Fortunately, we get the formal Regional Rankings on Wednesday (which are different from the South Region Fan POLL).

For me, one 5-point road loss (how much is Home Field Advantage worth? 3 points?) to the #1 team in the Region puts HSU ahead of JHU, which probably will be #2 in the Rankings.

I feel like Westminster is the last big hurdle.  Westminster pounds the rock from the spread with a very good RB and athletic QB, much like Case does.  These two teams are mirror images of one another.  I'm more than a little bit skeptical of CWRU's defense; but we'll see.