FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

I don't think CWRU or W&J have an RRO result if Westminster drops (they will).

Right you are. I had Westminster holding on at first, just because their SOS stayed above Hendrix. But I don't know how that would outweigh a third loss. So yes, it should be corrected to Case and W&J being 0-0 RRO. I'll fix that. I still don't see how JHU jumps them with a loss though, so thankfully it doesn't blow up my board.

[TitanPride]

Let's give it another go. We have some clarity from the committee, so I think I'll be close again this week. Again, this is what I think the committee will do, not how I actually rank them for my SRFP.

1) 9-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 86 SOS) -- SOS drop does not matter
2) 7-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 66 SOS)  -- Committee showed a preference last week and I don't think it's going to change. Rightly so.
3) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 129 SOS) -- Trinity will provide a slight boost to SOS, but not enough to move up.
4) 9-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 231 SOS) -- not much of an SOS boost, but that's a big comparative score vs W&J
5) 9-0 W&J (0-0 RRO, 207 SOS) -- SOS plummeting plus common opponent score moves them below Case
6) 8-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 25 SOS) --  I don't see how Case can stay below, despite SOS. JHU was above Centre, I think that stays the case
7) 8-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 43 SOS) -- huge SOS boost should push them above Centre this week
8) 8-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 143 SOS) -- unfortunately SOS keeps plummeting
9) 7-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 178 SOS) -- Not much of a way to move. SOS will drop again
10) 6-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 21 SOS) -- I don't know who else you put here? That resume is pretty good. 2 RRO games, a huge SOS.

Drops: none for me, Westminster for the committee.

Long shots: How can you go these over Hendrix?
7-2 W&L, 0-1, 55 SOS
7-2 CMU, 0-1, 206 SOS
6-2 ETBU, 0-1, 205 SOS
6-3 Westminster 0-2, 18 SOS


*** Modified to account for Wally's timely correction! ***

As a fairly new observer to this process, I've enjoyed reading your projections over the last couple of weeks.  Question for you -- Hardin Simmons' SOS fell from the 30s last week to 66.  If we take the names off of these resumes, what's the logic behind slotting H-S above JHU? JHU has one more in-region win, a win against a regionally ranked opponent and a really solid SOS.

I have the week 2 rankings as:

1.) UMHB
2.) Berry
3.) JHU
4.) F&M
5.) HSU
6.) W&J
7.) CWRU
8.) Centre
9.) Huntingdon
10.) Hendrix

[jknezek]

Let's give it another go. We have some clarity from the committee, so I think I'll be close again this week. Again, this is what I think the committee will do, not how I actually rank them for my SRFP.

1) 9-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 86 SOS) -- SOS drop does not matter
2) 7-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 66 SOS)  -- Committee showed a preference last week and I don't think it's going to change. Rightly so.
3) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 129 SOS) -- Trinity will provide a slight boost to SOS, but not enough to move up.
4) 9-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 231 SOS) -- not much of an SOS boost, but that's a big comparative score vs W&J
5) 9-0 W&J (0-0 RRO, 207 SOS) -- SOS plummeting plus common opponent score moves them below Case
6) 8-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 25 SOS) --  I don't see how Case can stay below, despite SOS. JHU was above Centre, I think that stays the case
7) 8-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 43 SOS) -- huge SOS boost should push them above Centre this week
8) 8-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 143 SOS) -- unfortunately SOS keeps plummeting
9) 7-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 178 SOS) -- Not much of a way to move. SOS will drop again
10) 6-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 21 SOS) -- I don't know who else you put here? That resume is pretty good. 2 RRO games, a huge SOS.

Drops: none for me, Westminster for the committee.

Long shots: How can you go these over Hendrix?
7-2 W&L, 0-1, 55 SOS
7-2 CMU, 0-1, 206 SOS
6-2 ETBU, 0-1, 205 SOS
6-3 Westminster 0-2, 18 SOS


*** Modified to account for Wally's timely correction! ***

As a fairly new observer to this process, I've enjoyed reading your projections over the last couple of weeks.  Question for you -- Hardin Simmons' SOS fell from the 30s last week to 66.  If we take the names off of these resumes, what's the logic behind slotting H-S above JHU? JHU has one more in-region win, a win against a regionally ranked opponent and a really solid SOS.

I have the week 2 rankings as:

1.) UMHB
2.) Berry
3.) JHU
4.) F&M
5.) HSU
6.) W&J
7.) CWRU
8.) Centre
9.) Huntingdon
10.) Hendrix

It's a good question, but I think it's a bit of common sense out of the committee. Namely that anyone else playing UMHB would also add another loss to their resume. It falls under the "results against Regionally Ranked Opponents." They aren't just looking for win/loss, but the actual game. JHU took a loss to a team that is struggling to be relevant. H-SU took a loss to a team that will fight for a back to back title. So while I think SOS works as a kind of seriously flawed "tie breaker" if you are indecisive between teams, for me a good example was last week between Westminster and Hendrix, I just don't think anyone is really all that indecisive between H-SU and JHU.

[Ralph Turner]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

[TitanPride]

Let's give it another go. We have some clarity from the committee, so I think I'll be close again this week. Again, this is what I think the committee will do, not how I actually rank them for my SRFP.

1) 9-0 UMHB (2-0 RRO South and West, 86 SOS) -- SOS drop does not matter
2) 7-1 HSU (0-1 RRO, 66 SOS)  -- Committee showed a preference last week and I don't think it's going to change. Rightly so.
3) 9-0 Berry (2-0 RRO, 129 SOS) -- Trinity will provide a slight boost to SOS, but not enough to move up.
4) 9-0 CWRU (0-0 RRO, 231 SOS) -- not much of an SOS boost, but that's a big comparative score vs W&J
5) 9-0 W&J (0-0 RRO, 207 SOS) -- SOS plummeting plus common opponent score moves them below Case
6) 8-1 JHU (1-0 RRO, 25 SOS) --  I don't see how Case can stay below, despite SOS. JHU was above Centre, I think that stays the case
7) 8-1 F&M (0-1 RRO, 43 SOS) -- huge SOS boost should push them above Centre this week
8) 8-1 Centre (1-1 RR, 143 SOS) -- unfortunately SOS keeps plummeting
9) 7-1 Huntingdon (0-0 RRO, 178 SOS) -- Not much of a way to move. SOS will drop again
10) 6-2 Hendrix (0-2 RRO, 21 SOS) -- I don't know who else you put here? That resume is pretty good. 2 RRO games, a huge SOS.

Drops: none for me, Westminster for the committee.

Long shots: How can you go these over Hendrix?
7-2 W&L, 0-1, 55 SOS
7-2 CMU, 0-1, 206 SOS
6-2 ETBU, 0-1, 205 SOS
6-3 Westminster 0-2, 18 SOS


*** Modified to account for Wally's timely correction! ***

As a fairly new observer to this process, I've enjoyed reading your projections over the last couple of weeks.  Question for you -- Hardin Simmons' SOS fell from the 30s last week to 66.  If we take the names off of these resumes, what's the logic behind slotting H-S above JHU? JHU has one more in-region win, a win against a regionally ranked opponent and a really solid SOS.

I have the week 2 rankings as:

1.) UMHB
2.) Berry
3.) JHU
4.) F&M
5.) HSU
6.) W&J
7.) CWRU
8.) Centre
9.) Huntingdon
10.) Hendrix

It's a good question, but I think it's a bit of common sense out of the committee. Namely that anyone else playing UMHB would also add another loss to their resume. It falls under the "results against Regionally Ranked Opponents." They aren't just looking for win/loss, but the actual game. JHU took a loss to a team that is struggling to be relevant. H-SU took a loss to a team that will fight for a back to back title. So while I think SOS works as a kind of seriously flawed "tie breaker" if you are indecisive between teams, for me a good example was last week between Westminster and Hendrix, I just don't think anyone is really all that indecisive between H-SU and JHU.

Thanks for the explanation, jknezek. Good to understand that not all RROs are treated the same.

[Bob.Gregg]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

and ONE 11-team conference....

[wally_wabash]

I would not be at all surprised to see CWRU remain behind W&J and Centre this week.   If that order stays as it is, CWRU is still in position to jump both if they can win on Saturday and finalize their SOS, which will still be bad, but not super bad (and may well end higher than W&J). 

Where CWRU is w/ respect to Hopkins is moot as Hopkins isn't blocking CWRU's path to an at-large bid. 

[CowboyAlum261]

Any chance TLU jumps into the final regional rankings if they can post a convincing win at Southwestern? Similarly, does ETBU have a shot to get into the final regional rankings if they can play a close game with the champs? As an HSU fan I'd love to see one of them get into the rankings to get my cowboys a win over a RRO.

[jknezek]

I would not be at all surprised to see CWRU remain behind W&J and Centre this week.   If that order stays as it is, CWRU is still in position to jump both if they can win on Saturday and finalize their SOS, which will still be bad, but not super bad (and may well end higher than W&J). 

Where CWRU is w/ respect to Hopkins is moot as Hopkins isn't blocking CWRU's path to an at-large bid.

Yeah. I get this and wouldn't be surprised either. But there really is no support to leave either ahead of Centre that doesn't lead both to be ahead of Centre now. However, if CWRU and W&J finish undefeated, I expect whoever does not get the AQ to be higher and for both to be ahead of Centre. From my understanding Case would be the at-large candidate. Frankly it's justifiable to structure the two PAC teams either way, and putting the at large slightly higher up increases their chances... marginally. I'm not saying being 4s or 5s necessarily matters when on the table versus say 6N or 7W or whatever, but it can't hurt. And certainly jumping Centre would be much, much more important.

However, since it is justifiable, it's not really gaming the system. So far Case and W&J have 6 common opponents. After this weekend there will be 8. So far, Case has a point differential between those 6 opponents 27 points higher than W&J. Each team has 3 common opponents that they have outscored by more than the other. While I'm not a fan of running up the score, so this metric isn't my favorite, it does show that it could be justifiable to move Case ahead even with a slightly weaker SOS.

To add to that stat. Case has a +35 on Wayne, who W&J plays this weekend, while W&J has a +7 on CMU, who Case plays this weekend. That means in addition to the 27 points already on the board, there are at least 29 more points W&J would need to even it out (assuming Case wins by 1).

Not that I'm thinking this is the criteria the Committee would use, it's just a legit possibility for putting Case in front of W&J to help improve their odds of getting selected.

[jknezek]

Any chance TLU jumps into the final regional rankings if they can post a convincing win at Southwestern? Similarly, does ETBU have a shot to get into the final regional rankings if they can play a close game with the champs? As an HSU fan I'd love to see one of them get into the rankings to get my cowboys a win over a RRO.

TLU has three losses already and a loss to Hendrix. Given my projection on Hendrix, if Hendrix wins out, it would be real hard for TLU to be in front of them with a worse winning percentage, a h2h loss, and no standout results.

ETBU probably needs to beat UMHB. If they lose, they will have 3 losses, an improved but still unattractive SOS, and still be just 0-2 against RROs. And in one of those RRO games, they gave up 80 points. I just don't see a path to them getting ranked short of knocking off UMHB.

I think it's unlikely the ASC gets 3 ranked teams this time around. Though losses by some significant number of Centre, F&M, Hendrix, and Case might do it. Maybe. Probably not if you have 3 losses though.

[CowboyAlum261]

Any chance TLU jumps into the final regional rankings if they can post a convincing win at Southwestern? Similarly, does ETBU have a shot to get into the final regional rankings if they can play a close game with the champs? As an HSU fan I'd love to see one of them get into the rankings to get my cowboys a win over a RRO.

TLU has three losses already and a loss to Hendrix. Given my projection on Hendrix, if Hendrix wins out, it would be real hard for TLU to be in front of them with a worse winning percentage, a h2h loss, and no standout results.

ETBU probably needs to beat UMHB. If they lose, they will have 3 losses, an improved but still unattractive SOS, and still be just 0-2 against RROs. And in one of those RRO games, they gave up 80 points. I just don't see a path to them getting ranked short of knocking off UMHB.

I think it's unlikely the ASC gets 3 ranked teams this time around. Though losses by some significant number of Centre, F&M, Hendrix, and Case might do it. Maybe. Probably not if you have 3 losses though.

That's what I thought, oh well, a guy can dream. TLU sure does seem to be a different team than at the beginning of the year, they look to be really scary in the 2018 ASC race. Thanks for the thoughts.

[BerryCollegeFan]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

With so few interactions between the conferences, I am not even sure how to tweak the SOS to make it more relevant.

[jknezek]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

With so few interactions between the conferences, I am not even sure how to tweak the SOS to make it more relevant.

You can't really. Not without going very subjective. I know soccer uses a home/away multiplier, but they are adjusting the formula I think after this year because no one was happy with it. Some coaches learned real quick to schedule easy away games, win and earn the multiplier, and then schedule harder home games to try and maintain the SOS and win the games. For teams in conferences likely to get AQs it became a sort of scheduling shell game to try and boost the SOS.

[wally_wabash]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

With so few interactions between the conferences, I am not even sure how to tweak the SOS to make it more relevant.

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this and I've got next to nothing.  I just don't know how you add value to the formula without getting into opponent-adjusted statistical analyses and the double-A is never going to agree on how to do that.  So we're just gonna count wins and losses in a vacuum and call it good. 

And also the SOS stinks for football, but it's kind of ok in most of the other sports.  They like using the same criteria across the entire division instead of tweaking the criteria in ways that makes the most sense on a sport-by-sport basis. 

[BerryCollegeFan]

The Championship procedures across all teams sports are essentially consistent, of which SOS is one of them.

SOS works well in basketball where a team may have 5 to 11 out-of-conference games, and even better in baseball where a coach can get 5 or 6 Regionally Ranked opponents during a Spring Trip to Florida. Unfortunately, SOS works very poorly in football where we have so many 10 team-conferences that have only one out-of-conference game.

With so few interactions between the conferences, I am not even sure how to tweak the SOS to make it more relevant.

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this and I've got next to nothing.  I just don't know how you add value to the formula without getting into opponent-adjusted statistical analyses and the double-A is never going to agree on how to do that.  So we're just gonna count wins and losses in a vacuum and call it good. 

And also the SOS stinks for football, but it's kind of ok in most of the other sports.  They like using the same criteria across the entire division instead of tweaking the criteria in ways that makes the most sense on a sport-by-sport basis.

Sat here thinking and you are correct there really are few options.