FB: Region 3 fan poll

[Wild Horse Rider]

Centennial AQ goes to Muhlenberg since I cannot see them losing both of their remaining games
USAC AQ goes to Huntingdon for the same reason as above
PAC AQ goes to Case for the same as the above 2 teams
ODAC AQ will be decided this weekend with RMC playing Bridgewater
ASC AQ will be decided this weekend with UMHB playing TLU
SAA AQ likely decided this weekend.  If Birmingham beats Trinity they are in the driver seat.  If not then Berry would get the nod with the head to head against Trinity

The pool C possibilities are looking slimmer and slimmer as I take a brief look across the other regions.  These are the best one loss teams I don't believe will win their conference AQ:
1) N. Central #6 ranked d3.com and the only loss is to a #4 ranked Wheaton.  If they win out they are surely in.
2) Bethel #9 ranked and the only loss was to #8 ranked St. Johns but they still have to play St. Thomas away on the final weekend but if they win out they are in.
3) John Carroll #10 ranked and their only loss was to #1 ranked Mount Union but they still have a one loss Baldwin Wallace team away on the final weekend but if they win out I'm sure they are in
4) Wesley #12 ranked and their only loss is to #7 ranked Salisbury and I believe they will win out.  They are probably in then.
5) Ithaca #17 ranked and their only loss is to #14 Union.  They do play a one loss Cortland team in MetLife Stadium on the final weekend but a win should keep them in the conversation
6) Susquehanna #19 ranked and their only loss is to #5 ranked Muhlenberg.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
7) Redlands #21 ranked and lost to #15 ranked Chapman.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
8) Berry #22 ranked but lost to an unranked team.  I believe they will be on the outside looking in if Birmingham beats Trinity Saturday.

I'm sure there are a lot of possibilities of good teams not receiving the AQ that may put themselves into the pool C conversation.  I also didn't look at the SOS of any of the above teams.  I believe the first set of regional rankings will come out this week so there should be a little more clarity.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Centennial AQ goes to Muhlenberg since I cannot see them losing both of their remaining games
USAC AQ goes to Huntingdon for the same reason as above
PAC AQ goes to Case for the same as the above 2 teams
ODAC AQ will be decided this weekend with RMC playing Bridgewater
ASC AQ will be decided this weekend with UMHB playing TLU
SAA AQ likely decided this weekend.  If Birmingham beats Trinity they are in the driver seat.  If not then Berry would get the nod with the head to head against Trinity

The pool C possibilities are looking slimmer and slimmer as I take a brief look across the other regions.  These are the best one loss teams I don't believe will win their conference AQ:
1) N. Central #6 ranked d3.com and the only loss is to a #4 ranked Wheaton.  If they win out they are surely in.
2) Bethel #9 ranked and the only loss was to #8 ranked St. Johns but they still have to play St. Thomas away on the final weekend but if they win out they are in.
3) John Carroll #10 ranked and their only loss was to #1 ranked Mount Union but they still have a one loss Baldwin Wallace team away on the final weekend but if they win out I'm sure they are in
4) Wesley #12 ranked and their only loss is to #7 ranked Salisbury and I believe they will win out.  They are probably in then.
5) Ithaca #17 ranked and their only loss is to #14 Union.  They do play a one loss Cortland team in MetLife Stadium on the final weekend but a win should keep them in the conversation
6) Susquehanna #19 ranked and their only loss is to #5 ranked Muhlenberg.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
7) Redlands #21 ranked and lost to #15 ranked Chapman.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
8) Berry #22 ranked but lost to an unranked team.  I believe they will be on the outside looking in if Birmingham beats Trinity Saturday.

I'm sure there are a lot of possibilities of good teams not receiving the AQ that may put themselves into the pool C conversation.  I also didn't look at the SOS of any of the above teams.  I believe the first set of regional rankings will come out this week so there should be a little more clarity.

A lot to be played, but it depends on how teams are stacked in their perspective regions and who gets to the table first.

[archgemini24]

Centennial AQ goes to Muhlenberg since I cannot see them losing both of their remaining games
USAC AQ goes to Huntingdon for the same reason as above
PAC AQ goes to Case for the same as the above 2 teams
ODAC AQ will be decided this weekend with RMC playing Bridgewater
ASC AQ will be decided this weekend with UMHB playing TLU
SAA AQ likely decided this weekend.  If Birmingham beats Trinity they are in the driver seat.  If not then Berry would get the nod with the head to head against Trinity

The pool C possibilities are looking slimmer and slimmer as I take a brief look across the other regions.  These are the best one loss teams I don't believe will win their conference AQ:
1) N. Central #6 ranked d3.com and the only loss is to a #4 ranked Wheaton.  If they win out they are surely in.
2) Bethel #9 ranked and the only loss was to #8 ranked St. Johns but they still have to play St. Thomas away on the final weekend but if they win out they are in.
3) John Carroll #10 ranked and their only loss was to #1 ranked Mount Union but they still have a one loss Baldwin Wallace team away on the final weekend but if they win out I'm sure they are in
4) Wesley #12 ranked and their only loss is to #7 ranked Salisbury and I believe they will win out.  They are probably in then.
5) Ithaca #17 ranked and their only loss is to #14 Union.  They do play a one loss Cortland team in MetLife Stadium on the final weekend but a win should keep them in the conversation
6) Susquehanna #19 ranked and their only loss is to #5 ranked Muhlenberg.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
7) Redlands #21 ranked and lost to #15 ranked Chapman.  They should win out and still be in the conversation.
8) Berry #22 ranked but lost to an unranked team.  I believe they will be on the outside looking in if Birmingham beats Trinity Saturday.

I'm sure there are a lot of possibilities of good teams not receiving the AQ that may put themselves into the pool C conversation.  I also didn't look at the SOS of any of the above teams.  I believe the first set of regional rankings will come out this week so there should be a little more clarity.

Baldwin Wallace's only loss was also to Mount Union. That could be two 8-1 teams playing in week 11. While BW may not be in the the d3.com polling, the committee will at least consider them once North Central comes off the board if they are the 9-1 team behind Mount.

All this is to say anyone rooting on BW to beat JCU and open that spot needs to also hope for both JCU or BW to lose this week, too, otherwise it could just trading one OAC runner-up for another.

[Pat Coleman]

And if BW is the 9-1 team behind Mount, would guess that they would be in our polling.

[archgemini24]

And if BW is the 9-1 team behind Mount, would guess that they would be in our polling.

True, but you know some of the followers on the boards (and d3.com, in general) are completely writing BW off as an at-large candidate because they are not in the poll, even though you have mentioned every year (multiple times) that the d3.com poll has no bearing on selection. In the post I quoted, BW only received a mention as a 1-loss opponent for JCU, and nothing about them potentially taking the spot for themselves. Not that you have any control over the aggregate poll, and maybe the Jackets don't make the top-25 even if they do beat the Streaks, but does that write-off as playoff candidate happen if BW is sitting even in the 20s?

That was wordier than I wanted it to be. Didn't want to sound confrontational in either post. Just a, "hey, those guys? Under the radar? Might not want to forget them."

[Pat Coleman]

Totally follow. And what I was getting at was ... BW is not really on the radar right now, but will be if they win the next two.

[wally_wabash]

Our mock Regional Rankings last week ranked Baldwin Wallace higher than John Carroll in spite of the poll- another case where we can point out that regional rankings and Top 25 balloting are separate, unrelated exercises. 

[Ralph Turner]

I remind the new readers of the message boards that the Regional Fan Polls are just tools for us to keep up with what is happening across the division, especially until the 9th week's games have been finished and the Regional Rankings are released this Wednesday.

Here is the link to the FAQ's to answer questions about the playoffs.

https://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs

[Wild Horse Rider]

I am sure there are other worthy/worthier teams I didn't list. I just went with what I saw as the most obvious. This is the first season I have expanded my horizons past the USASC and ODAC to include the south region. I can't say I can speak with any real knowledge of the other 3 regions other than I know Mount Union and Whitewater are usually good. Past those two teams I have been relying on top 25 polls and usual suspects in the postseason. If I left off a team it was not intentional. I would also think the same John Caroll/Baldwin Wallace "play in game" potential could be said for Ithaca/Cortland.

[archgemini24]

I am sure there are other worthy/worthier teams I didn't list. I just went with what I saw as the most obvious. This is the first season I have expanded my horizons past the USASC and ODAC to include the south region. I can't say I can speak with any real knowledge of the other 3 regions other than I know Mount Union and Whitewater are usually good. Past those two teams I have been relying on top 25 polls and usual suspects in the postseason. If I left off a team it was not intentional. I would also think the same John Caroll/Baldwin Wallace "play in game" potential could be said for Ithaca/Cortland.

Fair enough, and an excellent write-up regardless of my nit-picking. I should have opened up my statement a bit, as well, to include any 9-1 conference runner-up in a conference with a perennial, or a good 10-0 conference champion. For example, if UMHB beats TLU, it won't be the loss to the Cru that hurts the TLU as far as getting in the playoffs, but the loss to Hendrix (UMHB eats an at-large if TLU springs the upset).

We are definitely at the theory-crafting point in the season, and the reason I follow d3.com. They manage to hack out the time and energy to follow 200+ teams and all the ways the d3 world can turn sideways.

[Ralph Turner]

South Region Fan Poll  Week #9

1)  UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1	.	.
2)  Muhlenberg	45	2,2,2,2,2	.	.
3)  Susq	37	3,3,4,4,4	.	.
4)  HSU	35	3,3,3,5,6	.	.
5)  TLU	27	4,5,5,6,8	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
6T)  CWRU	23	4,5,5,9,9	.	.
6T)  Berry	23	6,6,6,7,7	.	.
8)  Bridgewater	16	7,8,8,8,8	.	.
9)  Trinity TX	9	7,7,10,x,x	.	.
10) Randy Mac	6	9,10,10,10,10	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
RV JHU	4	9,9,x,x,x	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.	.

Corrections are always appreciated. 

Thanks to ADL70, hasanova, Scots13 and FCGrizzlies.

[Wild Horse Rider]

The south now has only Susquehanna as the only viable pool C candidate with Berry (win and in) and UMHB locking up the AQs.  I know that Trinity and HSU are very good 2 loss teams but I counted saw at least 8 very good 1 loss pool C teams:
East) Wesley- Regionally ranked #2 and the only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the region by 7 points and beat the #3 ranked team.  They play 2-7 CNU this weekend.
East) Cortland- Regionally ranked #8 (likely moving up since #6 lost) and the only loss was to the #7 ranked team in the region by 6 points.  They play 7-2 Ithica this weekend.
North) N. Central- Regionally ranked #3 and lost to the #2 ranked team in the region by 14 points.  They play 5-4 Millikin this weekend.
North) John Carroll- Regionally ranked #6 (likely moving up since #5 lost) and the only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the region by 23 points.  They play 7-2 Baldwin Wallace this weekend.
South) Susquehanna- Regionally ranked #4 and the only loss was to #2 ranked team in the region by 7 points.  They play 2-7 Juniata this weekend.
West) Redlands- Regionally ranked #4 (possibly moving up dependent on how far Wartburg falls) and the only loss was to the #3 ranked team by 3 points.  The play 0-7 Occidental this weekend.
West) Bethel- Regionally ranked #6 (possibly moving up dependent on how far Wartburg falls) and the only loss was to the #5 ranked team by 19 points.  They play 7-2 St. Thomas this weekend.
West) Wartburg- Previously regionally ranked #2 and lost to previously #8 ranked team by 1 point.  They play 5-4 Loras this weekend.

If I rub my crystal ball and predict the 5 pool C bids from the selection committee I will say; Wesley, N. Central, John Carroll, Susquehanna, & Redlands.  Redlands will have a slightly better loss and likely a very similar SOS to Wartburg.  A big win from Bethel could bump out John Carroll but I believe their SOS will be similar enough and then I think Carroll has a "better" loss.  If any of those 5 teams lose I reserve the right to make changes.

[umhb2001]

The south now has only Susquehanna as the only viable pool C candidate with Berry (win and in) and UMHB locking up the AQs.  I know that Trinity and HSU are very good 2 loss teams but I counted saw at least 8 very good 1 loss pool C teams:
East) Wesley- Regionally ranked #2 and the only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the region by 7 points and beat the #3 ranked team.  They play 2-7 CNU this weekend.
East) Cortland- Regionally ranked #8 (likely moving up since #6 lost) and the only loss was to the #7 ranked team in the region by 6 points.  They play 7-2 Ithica this weekend.
North) N. Central- Regionally ranked #3 and lost to the #2 ranked team in the region by 14 points.  They play 5-4 Millikin this weekend.
North) John Carroll- Regionally ranked #6 (likely moving up since #5 lost) and the only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the region by 23 points.  They play 7-2 Baldwin Wallace this weekend.
South) Susquehanna- Regionally ranked #4 and the only loss was to #2 ranked team in the region by 7 points.  They play 2-7 Juniata this weekend.
West) Redlands- Regionally ranked #4 (possibly moving up dependent on how far Wartburg falls) and the only loss was to the #3 ranked team by 3 points.  The play 0-7 Occidental this weekend.
West) Bethel- Regionally ranked #6 (possibly moving up dependent on how far Wartburg falls) and the only loss was to the #5 ranked team by 19 points.  They play 7-2 St. Thomas this weekend.
West) Wartburg- Previously regionally ranked #2 and lost to previously #8 ranked team by 1 point.  They play 5-4 Loras this weekend.

If I rub my crystal ball and predict the 5 pool C bids from the selection committee I will say; Wesley, N. Central, John Carroll, Susquehanna, & Redlands.  Redlands will have a slightly better loss and likely a very similar SOS to Wartburg.  A big win from Bethel could bump out John Carroll but I believe their SOS will be similar enough and then I think Carroll has a "better" loss.  If any of those 5 teams lose I reserve the right to make changes.

Great analysis. And let's not forget that TLU beat HSU, so that puts them further behind the 8 ball.

[BerryCollegeFan]

not sure where the fan poll with shift this week, but I think TLU will drop.

HSU is in a tough situation a 1 point loss to UMHB on a last drive FG, but also another conference loss.  While they are respected in the fan poll, I don't think they will have enough to get one of the pool c bids.

[Ron Boerger]

not sure where the fan poll with shift this week, but I think TLU will drop.

HSU is in a tough situation a 1 point loss to UMHB on a last drive FG, but also another conference loss.  While they are respected in the fan poll, I don't think they will have enough to get one of the pool c bids.

The regional rankings will provide further clarity ... 10th last week, should be interesting to see where HSU lands with #7 TLU (bad loss to RRO), #8 RMC (1 TD loss to RRO), #9 BSC (three losses and out) all losing since then.  With only 5 pool C bids and solid one-loss candidates they will still struggle to cut through the two-loss noise. 

Trinity might possibly get regionally ranked this week, which would help HSU's case with another win vs. RRO.  This worked to the benefit of Trinity's men's soccer team this week, which really didn't deserve a pool C but went from 1 to 3 wins against RROs after TLU unexpectedly won the SCAC and as a result became RR'd on the final ranking.   But there are 20+ Pool Cs in men's soccer, not 5.