FB: Region 3 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

For RR's:

Trinity has a decent chance to move in.  I think TLU and HSU also have a good chance to stay in.  A lot of teams on the fringe of the first RRs had a rough Week 10.  Huntingdon lost.  Averett lost.  BSC missed their chance to solidify a spot.  Randolph Macon lost.  There really isn't a surplus of teams waiting to get into the South rankings. 

My guess is Trinity in, BSC out.  Then I think the other nine stay put, maybe some order shuffling.  The one team out there that might sneak in, probably instead of RMC, is Carnegie Mellon.  I think RMC grades out a little better, but if there is another new team this week, that would probably be it.   

[Bob.Gregg]

Sorry, I know CMU beat W&J this year and I've laid the reasons out in great details (even though I've "never worn the helmet or entered the arena") but there's no way the Tartans should sniff being regionally ranked.  And if they are, it's a terrible indictment of the quality of the entire region.  CMU lost to BETHANY and Grove City already.  Sorry, no way on the CMU in regional rankings.

[wally_wabash]

I don't think so either, Bob.  But they're the one team left that I see that might. It is indeed a indicative of the year the region is having outside of the top 3-4 teams. 

[Bob.Gregg]

And, to be clear and fair, IF W&J had beaten CMU (which should have happened), I'd be here telling you NO WAY should W&J be regionally ranked.

Going to be tough for the Pool C teams in the South....once they get "on the board" they might develop bed sores sitting there....

[Ralph Turner]

South Region Fan Poll  Week #10

1)  UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1	.	.
2)  Muhlenberg	45	2,2,2,2,2	.	.
3T)  Susq	37	3,3,4,4,4	.	.
3T)  HSU	37	3,3,3,4,5	.	.
5)  B'water	27	5,5,6,6,6	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
6)  CWRU	25	4,5,6,6,9	.	.
7)  Berry	22	5,7,7,7,7	.	.
8)  Trinity TX	14	7,8,8,9,9	.	.
9)  TLU	13	8,8,8,9,9	.	.
10) JHU	4	10,10,10,10,x	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
RV Randy Mac	1	10,x,x,x,x	.	.
.	.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.	.

Corrections are always appreciated. 

Thanks to ADL70, hasanova, Scots13 and FCGrizzlies.
We will have a WeeK #11 Poll and then the final poll after the last week that a South Region team plays.

[ADL70]

Still no consensus on CWRU. For the record, I'm not the fourth place vote. I dropped CWRU down and B'wter up this week.

[D3 Junkie 27]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

[jknezek]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

As the season goes on, teams improve or situations change. I'm not longer a voter, but a single head to head didn't define a relationship for an entire season. I suspect had TLU not been completely blown out by UMHB things would be closer. But that was an ugly result.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

First time I've felt a bit of an outlier this season.
In my top 25 fan poll, I had south teams at UMHB 3, Muhlenberg 5, Susquehanna 7, CWRU 14, Hardin-Simmons 15, Bridgewater 18, Berry 19, Trinity 24. Texas Lutheran and Randolph-Macon filled out the last two spots and Johns Hopkins was first off.
Still better than the north where you have to hold your nose and stick teams in at the bottom.

[Ralph Turner]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

I don't think that TLU is that far behind.

If we had an index-based system like Lazindex or Bornpowerindex, then HSU and TLU might be closer.

HSU has a nice win over Trinity TX. TLU has a loss to Hendrix, and blowout loss to UMHB.

http://www.lazindex.com/ncaa.php?sort=div

Lazindex has TLU just ahead of CWRU and behind HSU, JHU, RandyMac and Berry.

http://www.bornpowerindex.com/

Bornpowerindex really factored in the blowout loss in his rankings this week.

[crufootball]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

To me it goes to the notion that comes up on this site every now and then which is the tiers of D3 football. The thought that by and large teams are in certain tiers and that teams are most likely only going to be able to beat teams that are either in their tier or the tier right above them (if the higher tier team has a bad day). 

[D3 Junkie 27]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

As the season goes on, teams improve or situations change. I'm not longer a voter, but a single head to head didn't define a relationship for an entire season. I suspect had TLU not been completely blown out by UMHB things would be closer. But that was an ugly result.

TLU is 8-2
HSU is 8-2
TLU lost to UMHB
HSU lost to UMHB
TLU lost to Hendrix
HSU did not play Hendrix
TLU beat HSU head-to-head on the road by 2 possessions

Conclusion: HSU is better than TLU   

With the justification being that TLU lost to UMHB by more points? Wow.

I have no loyalty to either school but this is extremely perplexing.

[wally_wabash]

Green emphasis mine:

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

As the season goes on, teams improve or situations change. I'm not longer a voter, but a single head to head didn't define a relationship for an entire season. I suspect had TLU not been completely blown out by UMHB things would be closer. But that was an ugly result.

TLU is 8-2
HSU is 8-2
TLU lost to UMHB
HSU lost to UMHB
TLU lost to Hendrix
HSU did not play Hendrix
TLU beat HSU head-to-head on the road by 2 possessions

Conclusion: HSU is better than TLU   

With the justification being that TLU lost to UMHB by more points? Wow.

I have no loyalty to either school but this is extremely perplexing.

All of this is true, and it also way oversimplifies the process.  Results don't happen in a vacuum (this is THE major flaw with the NCAA's SOS calculation).  I'm a big time believer in h2h results carrying a ton of weight- I'm still voting Wesley in front of Delaware Valley despite enough other top 25 voters voting against that h2h result to have switched those two in the top 25 poll. 

Losing to Hendrix is not a good result for TLU.  And when you have a measuring stick like UMHB, beating them for 59:59 and losing on a  fire drill FG is a significant piece of information when compared to losing to them in a completely uncompetitive manner.  I don't think TLU needed to beat UMHB or even be within one score to validate their HSU result.  But they did have to be competitive, and they weren't. 

[jknezek]

Can anyone reasonably justify having TLU so far behind HSU? Since when do results against common opponents count more than a head to head result?

As the season goes on, teams improve or situations change. I'm not longer a voter, but a single head to head didn't define a relationship for an entire season. I suspect had TLU not been completely blown out by UMHB things would be closer. But that was an ugly result.

TLU is 8-2
HSU is 8-2
TLU lost to UMHB
HSU lost to UMHB
TLU lost to Hendrix
HSU did not play Hendrix
TLU beat HSU head-to-head on the road by 2 possessions

Conclusion: HSU is better than TLU   

With the justification being that TLU lost to UMHB by more points? Wow.

I have no loyalty to either school but this is extremely perplexing.

That's certainly a simplistic way of looking at it. It works on a single game basis. Take a deeper look at the HSU-TLU game. Not just the end score, but the other stats. Yes the final score matters most, but when ranking teams it's ok to believe sometimes results are a little odd. So if you get a pile of contradictory evidence, like common opponent scores, maybe you go back and revisit the result that sticks out and wonder if there is a reason.

Consistently this season HSU has outperformed TLU against common opponents. In every statistical category of the TLU-HSU game except final score and interceptions, those 4 picks were absolutely the reason for the result, HSU outperformed TLU. Yes, congrats to TLU for winning a tough game on the road. That's a fantastic win. But when you look at ALL of the information, not just a single score in a vacuum, it's ok to realize that the result might be an outlier.

[D3 Junkie 27]

Yes, this all makes sense. I guess I'm not necessarily arguing that TLU is better than HSU, I agree that HSU is probably the better team. My point is that if a tie needs to be broken - for ranking or Pool C reasons - head-to-head should allow TLU to be in front. They deserve opportunities that HSU does not because they beat them when it counted.