FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 6

Conferences: ODAC, PAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			W&J (5)			35			0			1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Trinity (TX)			29			1			2 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 2
3			B-SC			26			-1			3 , 3 , 3 , 2 , 3
4			W&L			18			2			5 , 4 , 4 , 4 , 5
5			R-MC			15			2			6 , 5 , 5 , 5 , 4
6			Grove City			12			---			4 , 6 , 6 , 6 , 6
7			Centre			3			-2			7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Carnegie Mellon (2)

Newly Ranked: Grove City
Dropped Out: Westminster (PA)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, ADL70

[jknezek]

Poll Items of Note:
1) Only 2 teams, R-MC and Grove City, have voters disagreeing by more than 1 spot
2) Poll teams on bye week for 10/16 -- W&J, W&L, Carnegie Mellon
3) Games of Note this weekend:
     a) Centre (7) hosts B-SC (3)

Poll Housekeeping of note --
1) Poll now shows the weekly delta of each team.
2) Newly Ranked and Dropped Out teams are now listed below ARV teams

[BSCpanthers]

I will say, even though Trinity passed BSC this weekend, if BSC keeps winning games by 30, they will start to chip away at W&J lead at the top of the poll.

[Wild Horse Rider]

I will self report.  I am the lone holdout with Birmingham at 2 instead of Trinity.  I know Trinity has the better win on their resume and their defense looks to be something special (less than 7 PPG) but Birmingham also has been stingy on defense (just over 7 PPG).  The reason I put Birmingham ahead is their offense which is averaging just under 48 PPG.  I think as the season progresses the Birmingham win over Huntingdon will look better and better since they will likely represent the USAC in the playoffs.  The Birmingham Centre game will give a common opponent to look at after this weekend as well.  I was also one of the 2 7th place votes for Carnegie.  I know they have two losses on their record but they are by a combined 10 points to what I think is a good Whitworth team and a good Grove City team.  They also have the convincing win against Westminster.  I think if the Centre vs Trinity game was a little closer I may have voted different

[jknezek]

I will say, even though Trinity passed BSC this weekend, if BSC keeps winning games by 30, they will start to chip away at W&J lead at the top of the poll.

With Centre, Berry and Trinity all ahead of B-SC there is definitely a run of games to close the gap. But W&J still has Westminster, Grove City and Carnegie Mellon ahead of them to add to their John Carroll statement.

But yeah, if B-SC blows out their key opponents and W&J struggles with their key opponents, it could happen.

[jknezek]

I will self report.  I am the lone holdout with Birmingham at 2 instead of Trinity.  I know Trinity has the better win on their resume and their defense looks to be something special (less than 7 PPG) but Birmingham also has been stingy on defense (just over 7 PPG).  The reason I put Birmingham ahead is their offense which is averaging just under 48 PPG.  I think as the season progresses the Birmingham win over Huntingdon will look better and better since they will likely represent the USAC in the playoffs.  The Birmingham Centre game will give a common opponent to look at after this weekend as well.  I was also one of the 2 7th place votes for Carnegie.  I know they have two losses on their record but they are by a combined 10 points to what I think is a good Whitworth team and a good Grove City team.  They also have the convincing win against Westminster.  I think if the Centre vs Trinity game was a little closer I may have voted different

I'm the other CMU voter and I have the same reasoning. I'll take 2 close losses to very good teams vs. one blowout loss to a very good team provided you have a solid result as well. As for Trinity vs B-SC, it's a toss up right now. Common opponent will help this weekend, though the way Trinity blew them up, B-SC will be hard pressed to improve on. Match, maybe, but in my mind it's more likely to be a closer game at Centre.

I banged the drum on Grove City and I'm the 4 for them. I like that team. I think they got a bit unlucky at Westminster. I think both Grove City and CMU will challenge W&J, though I don't think either will beat the Presidents.

As for Huntingdon, their OOC is mixed at best and the USASAC did them no favors with most of their OOC performance. Do I think Huntingdon is the class of the USASAC? Yes. Do I think that means they are all that good? Really hard to tell. UWO losing doesn't help their case, and Averett doesn't look like it will either. There just isn't anything to hold on to. A solid beatdown by B-SC, and wins over a whole pile of conference foes who didn't fair well against anyone. There are much better resumes, and Huntingdon just doesn't really have a serious chance to improve theirs until the playoffs.

[BSCpanthers]

If Centre takes another loss this weekend, the bottom of the poll could get interesting.  It'll make me have to look at the whole region to see how those multi loss teams really look.  I'm not sure how to feel about Huntingdon for all the reason already mentioned.  OOC for that whole conference just wasn't good, and Huntingdon took two losses, both at home.  Although the loss to Oshkosh was only by 4. 

I think we are all still waiting to see BSC play someone, and this weekend we get that chance.

[MRMIKESMITH]

My response to Ralph's question located on my Bracketology page within the General Channel.

Thanks for starting the post. I am not ragging on you, but want to push this discussion farther along!

Please project the Regional Rankings of Region 6 after the regular season that get a Pool C bid for Howard Payne.

IMHO, this regional alignment is not "Just".

As I stated elsewhere, there have been 21 Stagg Bowl since the Pools were initiated. This Region has had 21 teams (counting St Thomas of the MIAC) in the Stagg!

The ASC should have been sent to Region 3 to balance the strength across the Division and in numbers of teams considered.

(Only Bridgewater (2001) from the ODAC and Trinity TX (2002), an affiliate in the SAA, have made the Stagg. That is before some D3 players were born!

You make some great points Ralph. As oppose to projecting, I'll look at the Top SAA, PAC, ODAC, USAC and ASC and compare schedules. Key Win(s) teams above .500. In theory, I would project a 9-1 Birmingham Southern would have the best case of an at-large, that would give them potential wins over a 8-2 Huntingdon (USAC Champ) and 8-2 Centre who would have a win over potential 1st place MIAA Trine. As opposed to Trinity (Tx.) with only 1 win against 8-2 Centre. Kudos for Trinity for filling it's schedule, but Macalester rarely would help SOS, would probably decrease it. I think by not having the ASC, you get a better chance to get RR teams on board for the SAA.

R3:
Trinity (Tx.) (4-0) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Centre (4-1), Berry (3-2)
W&J (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - John Carroll (3-2), St. Vincent (3-2)
Birmingham Southern (5-0) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Huntingdon (3-2)
Centre (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) Trine (4-2), Key Loss - Trinity (Tx.) (4-0)
Grove City (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - Carnegie Mellon (4-2) )Key Loss - Westminster (3-2)
W&L (5-1) (1-0) - Key Win(s) - RM-C (5-1)
RM-C (5-1) (2-1) - Key Win(s) - Ferrum (4-1), Catholic (3-2), Key Loss - W&L (5-1)
Ferrum (4-1) (0-1) - Key Win(s) - Averett (3-2) , Key Loss - RM-C (5-1)
Carnegie Mellon (4-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Westminster (3-2) Key losses - Whitworth (4-1), Grove City (5-1)
Shenandoah (4-1) (0-0) - Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2)

Westminster (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Grove City (5-1), Key Losses - Mount (5-0), Carnegie (4-2)
Huntingdon (3-2) (0-2) Key Win(s) - Methodist (3-2) & Key Losses - UW-O (3-1), B-S (5-0)
Berry (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UW-W (5-0), Trinity (4-0)
Methodist (3-2) (0-2) Key Losses - Shenandoah (4-1), Huntingdon (3-2)

ASC:
UMHB (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win(s) - H-S (4-1), ETBU (3-2)
HP (5-0) (0-0) - Best Win - ETBU (3-2)
H-S (4-1) (0-1) - Best Win - Belhaven (3-2), Key Loss - UMHB (5-0)
ETBU (3-2) (0-2) - Key Losses - UMHB (5-0), HP (5-0)

[Ron Boerger]

Right now you could throw a blanket over BSC/Trinity and pick either at random.  They both have very strong defenses ( 3rd/2nd in the country in scoring defense behind Mt Union; Trinity #2 in allowed YPG, BSC 12th).  BSC has the inarguably stronger rushing attack (4th), Trinity the superior passing attack (13th), and both are respectable but not top 50 in the other dimension. 

NCAA D3 stats are here for anyone else that wants to dig around.

[Ralph Turner]

+1, Fan of D3.

I can see Grove City winning out and getting the Pool A.

However, I am projecting TUTX to beat B-SC and get the Pool A bid.

I am also projecting W&J, W&L and Huntingdon to earn Pool A bids.

That leaves B-SC on the table with a win over the last ranked or next-to-last ranked team in Region 3, Huntingdon.

Is that enough for B-SC to earn a Pool C bid?

[BSCpanthers]

+1, Fan of D3.

I can see Grove City winning out and getting the Pool A.

However, I am projecting TUTX to beat B-SC and get the Pool A bid.

I am also projecting W&J, W&L and Huntingdon to earn Pool A bids.

That leaves B-SC on the table with a win over the last ranked or next-to-last ranked team in Region 3, Huntingdon.

Is that enough for B-SC to earn a Pool C bid?

If we need it, I hope it is.

[Wild Horse Rider]

Initial Strength of Schedules are out.  Of note in the region:

Randy Mac at #14 (will look somewhat similar so long as Catholic keeps winning)
Trinity at #58 (will likely go down as the season goes on)
Birmingham at #203 (will go up as their schedule is backloaded)


Pool C out of Region 3 seems like a longshot .  You would have to get past:

Wheaton from the CCIW as a virtual lock pool C team if they win out
Hardin-Simmons from ASC as a very strong candidate if they win out
If Bethel meets St. Johns in the MIAC Championship game and wins the rematch I think both teams have a good shot of getting in
Does the CC get 2 in between Susquehanna, Johns Hopkins, and/or Muhlenberg
Baldwin Wallace winning out will likely give the OAC a second team in

I think that is get to the loser of the the Trinity/Birmingham game so long as that is the only blemish on the resume.  This is also where a one loss Randy Mac likely gets considered also.

I'm sure that there are a few additional teams I neglected to mention above.  I also realize that there are 5 weeks left in the season and a lot of things can happen.  Clearly conference "favorites" such as Grove City winning the PAC which would throw W&J in the pool C mix.

[Ron Boerger]

There are only five pool C bids this year.   It will be really difficult for a Region 3 team to get one. 

[BSCpanthers]

I'd like to see D3 go to an 11 game schedule so we could see more OOC games.  Most years we only have 2 OOC games, and one is always Huntingdon being our in state rival.  It's hard to get a judge on some of these teams when you play so few OOC games and they are usually the first 2 games of the season. 

[jknezek]

I'd like to see D3 go to an 11 game schedule so we could see more OOC games.  Most years we only have 2 OOC games, and one is always Huntingdon being our in state rival.  It's hard to get a judge on some of these teams when you play so few OOC games and they are usually the first 2 games of the season.

That's a function of conference size inflation. First to at least the AQ bid minimum, and then higher to simplify scheduling. Try being the ODAC and scheduling a pile of OOC games. That's why NNA is on the schedule for so many. Even you guys scheduled that non-D3 in Arkansas this year. I'm guessing that was not a "want to" but rather an... "oh crud we need another game" moment.