FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

All the voters were in early this week, so here is the Week 8 Region 3 Fan Poll

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 8

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			UMHB (4)			33			0			1 , 3 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Trinity (TX) (1)			29			0			3 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 2
T3			B-SC			24			0			2 , 2 , 4 , 4 , 4
T3			Hardin-Simmons			24			1			4 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 3
5			W&L			14			1			5 , 5 , 5 , 5 , 6
6			R-MC			9			1			6 , 6 , 6 , 5
7			Howard Payne			3			-2			7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Belhaven (2) , Huntingdon (2)

Newly Ranked: None
Dropped Out: None

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, jknezek

[MRMIKESMITH]

With Pool C probably coming down to probably more than the simple SOS criteria and maybe RR, you are going to see Common opponents and who you have played as critical indicators.

1. UMBH (8-0) SOS (.538) (1-0)
2. B-SC (8-0) SOS (.430) (2-0)
3. Trinity Tx. (7-0) SOS (.450) (1-0)
4. Hardin-Simmons (6-1) SOS (.561) (0-1)
5. W&L (7-1) SOS (.473) (1-0)
6. Randolph Macon (8-1) SOS (.559) (0-1)
7. Centre (6-2) SOS (.555) (0-2)
8. Huntingdon (6-2) SOS (.515) (0-1)

I think the committee is going to have to do quite a bit of explaining come selection Saturday/Sunday. I think Birmingham-Southern will most likely have 2 RR wins regardless of their result against Trinity, they'd be 2-1 in RR with Huntingdon getting on board, which they should with only 2 losses. Huntingdon didn't make the board in 2019 with 3 losses. So B-S needs Huntingdon to win out. Trinity needs Centre to be that extra team on board, getting to 1-1 in RR. If H-S wins out, there will be no other two loss team from ASC. Trinity will have one RR win plus a comparable H2H result against Texas Lutheran that is similar to that of UMHB. H-S could easily be pulled into the playoff based upon H2H result with UMHB, similar to NCC in 2019. H-S has to really dominate Texas Lutheran IMHO, can have no one score game. I think the committee would have to put a 3 loss Belhaven with a critical loss to Southwestern in over a two-loss Huntingdon to rationalize H-S, which they may do. Then there is R-MC which is sitting on the table with no significant win, they really need Catholic to win out and maybe sneak onto the R1 RR list.  Region 3 is going to be very competitive as to who should be #1 on the board from R3, then trying to measure them up nationally. I think the committee financially would love to have two teams from RR, especially a Trinity (TX) and/or B-SC to help limit flights.  Not saying that they would do that, but you never know.

[Ron Boerger]

With Pool C probably coming down to probably more than the simple SOS criteria and maybe RR, you are going to see Common opponents and who you have played as critical indicators.

1. UMBH (8-0) SOS (.538) (1-0)
2. B-SC (8-0) SOS (.430) (2-0)
3. Trinity Tx. (7-0) SOS (.450) (1-0)
4. Hardin-Simmons (6-1) SOS (.561) (0-1)
5. W&L (7-1) SOS (.473) (1-0)
6. Randolph Macon (8-1) SOS (.559) (0-1)
7. Centre (6-2) SOS (.555) (0-2)
8. Huntingdon (6-2) SOS (.515) (0-1)

I think the committee is going to have to do quite a bit of explaining come selection Saturday/Sunday. I think Birmingham-Southern will most likely have 2 RR wins regardless of their result against Trinity, they'd be 2-1 in RR with Huntingdon getting on board, which they should with only 2 losses. Huntingdon didn't make the board in 2019 with 3 losses. So B-S needs Huntingdon to win out. Trinity needs Centre to be that extra team on board, getting to 1-1 in RR. If H-S wins out, there will be no other two loss team from ASC. Trinity will have one RR win plus a comparable H2H result against Texas Lutheran that is similar to that of UMHB. H-S could easily be pulled into the playoff based upon H2H result with UMHB, similar to NCC in 2019. H-S has to really dominate Texas Lutheran IMHO, can have no one score game. I think the committee would have to put a 3 loss Belhaven with a critical loss to Southwestern in over a two-loss Huntingdon to rationalize H-S, which they may do. Then there is R-MC which is sitting on the table with no significant win, they really need Catholic to win out and maybe sneak onto the R1 RR list.  Region 3 is going to be very competitive as to who should be #1 on the board from R3, then trying to measure them up nationally. I think the committee financially would love to have two teams from RR, especially a Trinity (TX) and/or B-SC to help limit flights.  Not saying that they would do that, but you never know.

The SAA leader that loses this week will drop in the rankings before Selection Satur/unday.  HSU will be the first team brought to the table under this scenario because UMHB and the SAA winner will get Pool As.  And with only five teams total being picked for Pool Cs whichever team ends up below HSU is going to have a hard time getting selected no matter what.  Not to mention that if RMC wins out they could be ranked higher than the SAA runner-up since the committee seems to favor SOS over WvRRO when the SOS difference is substantial.

Travel will not be a factor in choosing the five Pool C teams. They'll take the five best (according to the criteria) and let the travel chips fall where they may.  {edit:} As everyone else has at least two losses in conference either Trinity or BSC is a lock to win the SAA {/edit} and with the low SOSs I can't see the other having a chance for one of the five should they end up next on the table after HSU comes off.

[jknezek]

It's a very static poll in the week ahead of the first Regional Rankings. Only the bottom spot moved.

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 10

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			UMHB (4)			33			0			1 , 3 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Trinity (TX) (1)			29			0			3 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 2
T3			B-SC			24			0			2 , 2 , 4 , 4 , 4
T3			Hardin-Simmons			24			0			4 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 3
5			W&L			14			0			5 , 5 , 5 , 5 , 6
6			R-MC			9			0			6 , 6 , 6 , 5
7			Huntingdon			4			---			7 , 7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Belhaven (2) , Centre (1)

Newly Ranked: Huntingdon
Dropped Out: Howard Payne (Prev:7)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, jknezek

[jknezek]

The first Regional Ranking (Listing) is out. Reminder, the change this year is the "Rankings" for the first week are in alphabetical order, not in an actual ranking:

Region 3           
   Birmingham-Southern
   Centre   
   Hardin-Simmons   
   Mary Hardin-Baylor   
   Randolph-Macon   
   Trinity (Texas)   
   Washington & Lee

whole story here: https://d3football.com/playoffs/2021/first-regional-ranking

[jknezek]

One again our voters are on the ball and early...

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 8

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			UMHB (5)			35			0			1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Trinity (TX)			29			0			2 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 2
3			Hardin-Simmons			25			0			3 , 4 , 3 , 2 , 3
4			B-SC			21			-1			4 , 3 , 4 , 4 , 4
5			W&L			14			0			5 , 5 , 5 , 5 , 6
6			R-MC			9			0			6 , 6 , 6 , 5
7			Huntingdon			5			0			7 , 7 , 7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Belhaven (2)

Newly Ranked: None
Dropped Out: None

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, jknezek

Not much changes this week in the overall poll. Some shifting of the numbers but little in the order except B-SC dropping out of a tie for 3rd into pure 4th. Trinity loses their 1st place vote and UMHB is the first unanimous #1 since the mid-season reorganization. Only R-MC is in the poll without unanimous consent, and Belhaven holds the only other points. So a lot of consensus as we enter the first and last public Regional Rankings, though the second Regional listing.

At this point in the season, UMHB (ASC), Trinity (TX) (SAA), W&L (ODAC), and Huntingdon (USASAC) have sown up Pool A NCAA autobids. B-SC, HSU, R-MC, and whoever else appears in the Regional Rankings (Centre, Belhaven, ?) will be scrapping for one of only 5 Pool C bids.

[BSCpanthers]

The separation in the top 4 is very difficult.  Obviously the top 2 are there because they beat 3 and 4.  But both of those games are about as close as two games could be.  What is the chance that two Pool C bids come out of Region 3??? 

I still give my vote for BSC over Hardin-Simmons due to BSC having better wins out of conference.  Also, the only separation between BSC and Trinity was a failed 2-point conversion going for the win at the end of the game. 

Selection day is going to be stressful.

[Wild Horse Rider]

I know everyone keeps saying 5 at large bids are available but I would use permanent marker on Wheaton in the field at this point which leaves 4 spots up for grab.  Then I see about 6 maybe 7 one loss teams in no particular order:

Baldwin Wallace- lost to Mount by 24 and currently has one regionally ranked win.  A win this coming weekend will go a long way
Johns Hopkins- lost to Muhlenberg by 15.  If Susquehanna can sneak into the regional rankings that will help
Hardin-Simmons- lost to UMHB by 6.  No regionally ranked wins
Union/RPI- RPI probably has the better resume with a win this weekend against Union.  That would give them 2 regionally ranked wins.
Randolph Macon- no quality wins but a 1 PT loss to W&L and a very good SOS
Birmingham Southern- lost to #16 by 1 PT on a failed 2 PT conversion.  One regionally ranked win
UW-La Crosse- lost to UWW by 6.  One regionally ranked win (2 losses total but one was not in D3)

Then you have your what if scenarios:

If Bethel upsets St. Johns in the MIAC championship St' Johns is likely in
If Chicago beats Lake Forest then Lake Forest is sitting there with one loss as well

None of this takes into account any teams with 2 losses

[Hawks88]

I know everyone keeps saying 5 at large bids are available but I would use permanent marker on Wheaton in the field at this point which leaves 4 spots up for grab.  Then I see about 6 maybe 7 one loss teams in no particular order:

Baldwin Wallace- lost to Mount by 24 and currently has one regionally ranked win.  A win this coming weekend will go a long way
Johns Hopkins- lost to Muhlenberg by 15.  If Susquehanna can sneak into the regional rankings that will help
Hardin-Simmons- lost to UMHB by 6.  No regionally ranked wins
Union/RPI- RPI probably has the better resume with a win this weekend against Union.  That would give them 2 regionally ranked wins.
Randolph Macon- no quality wins but a 1 PT loss to W&L and a very good SOS
Birmingham Southern- lost to #16 by 1 PT on a failed 2 PT conversion.  One regionally ranked win
UW-La Crosse- lost to UWW by 6.  One regionally ranked win (2 losses total but one was not in D3)

Then you have your what if scenarios:

If Bethel upsets St. Johns in the MIAC championship St' Johns is likely in
If Chicago beats Lake Forest then Lake Forest is sitting there with one loss as well

None of this takes into account any teams with 2 losses

Also, if RPI beats Union then Ithaca is in Pool C. If they(Ithaca) beat Cortland then they are a 1 loss team with a top 10 SoS so would likely be one of the first picked.
There's also Wheaton at 1 loss but not good SoS. Just not sure they're a lock.

[Wild Horse Rider]

I missed that.  For some reason I thought if Ithaca won they were in as the AQ.  I completely understand the SOS with Wheaton but they are the last team to hand the defending national champs a loss way back in October of 2019.  I know the final score this year was a 13 point margin but it was a 7 point game until N. Central scored with a minute and a half left in the game.  Wheaton was stopped on 3 4th down attempts in the 4th quarter.  The closest game Wheaton has played other than that loss was a 30 point margin of victory and they have scored 40 points or more in all the other games.  I understand the criteria for the selections but I would have a tough time in the selection room explaining not picking them in pool C.  I guess when they officially put numbers to the regional ranking that will clear things up slightly.

[Hawks88]

North Central was in basically the same position in 2019 and got in and won the whole thing so that may bode well for Wheaton getting in too.
Our region 3 Pool C friends basically need St Johns and Union to win Saturday to make sure St Johns and Ithaca stay out of pool C and it would help if John Carroll could beat Baldwin Wallace to help free up a spot from a likely sure pick. I would include Eau Claire beating Lacrosse but I don't really think there's a chance of that.

[MRMIKESMITH]

I missed that.  For some reason I thought if Ithaca won they were in as the AQ.  I completely understand the SOS with Wheaton but they are the last team to hand the defending national champs a loss way back in October of 2019.  I know the final score this year was a 13 point margin but it was a 7 point game until N. Central scored with a minute and a half left in the game.  Wheaton was stopped on 3 4th down attempts in the 4th quarter.  The closest game Wheaton has played other than that loss was a 30 point margin of victory and they have scored 40 points or more in all the other games.  I understand the criteria for the selections but I would have a tough time in the selection room explaining not picking them in pool C.  I guess when they officially put numbers to the regional ranking that will clear things up slightly.

If Ithaca wins this weekend, their highly likely to be 1st off the board.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Some other games of note that can help Hardin-Simmons is both W&L and Randolph-Macon losing allowing that 3rd place ASC team to enter the ranking. Or Huntingdon losing to LaGrange.

[DGPugh]

Huntingdon beat LaGrange 55-9

[BSCpanthers]

We doing an end of regular season poll???