FB: Region 3 fan poll

[crufootball]

Would need an awful lot of help from the rest of the region for HPU and HSU to get ranked.  Don't think HPU has ever been RR and even though that's not supposed to matter I think it can sometimes.

The loss to GFU really hurt. I don't think that two 2-loss ASC teams edge out anyone else.

If we look at 7 slots, We see 4 going to conference winners.
That leaves 3 runners-up. I see them shaking out as one each to the ASC, SAA and the ODAC. I am looking at HSU, Shen and BSC

Seems like the ASC for a while now, teams 3-5ish have had enough parity that none of them can just lose to the top 2 and beat everyone else including their non conference opponents.

[Wild Horse Rider]

I believe it has been mentioned but the USAC (Huntingdon), ASC (UMHB), and SAA (Trinity) leaders are in control of their own destinies as far as the Pool A bids go.  The ODAC could come down to the 10th or 11th weekend.  Just because Shenandoah lost against Bridgewater doesn't mean they will not compete against the rest of the top half of the league.  The box score is crazy from this past weekend.  The Hornets 4th quarter will be one they will not soon forget.  A pick by the Eagles brought back to  the 2 which resulted in a TD and a fumble by the Hornets on the ensuing kickoff let to 14 points.  The Eagles D held strong with 2 forth down stops after that.  The remaining games of note in the ODAC are:

10/15 Bridgewater vs Randy Mac (both undefeated)
10/22 Randy Mac vs Shenandoah
10/29 Randy Mac vs W&L
11/5 W&L vs Bridgewater
11/12 Shenandoah vs W&L

Hampden-Sydney may also play a role as spoiler based on their offense.  My gut says it boils down to Randy Mac vs W&L.  This is strength vs strength.  Randy Mac is scoring 48 PPG and W&L is allowing 5.8 PPG.  Something will have to give and I can't wait to see which it is.

[jknezek]

Not much changes this week besides the swapping of Bridgewater and Shenandoah. Even the point totals are almost the same.

This week:

Bridgewater at Randolph-Macon
Hardin-Simmons hosts a battle tested ETBU
UMHB goes to TLU, which provides a common opponent with Trinity (TX)

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 6

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			UMHB (4)			46			0			2 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 1
2			Trinity (TX) (3)			44			0			1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 2
3			Huntingdon			31			0			3 , 3 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 4 , 3
4			Hardin-Simmons			27			0			4 , 4 , 2 , 3 , 3 , 5
5			R-MC			19			0			5 , 4 , 5 , 7 , 4 , 6 , 6
6			B-SC			14			0			7 , 7 , 5 , 6 , 5 , 4
7			Bridgewater			9			---			6 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Howard Payne (4) , Berry (2)

Newly Ranked: Bridgewater
Dropped Out: Shenandoah (Prev:7)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, ksclegal, Cowboy2, jknezek

[jknezek]

I believe it has been mentioned but the USAC (Huntingdon), ASC (UMHB), and SAA (Trinity) leaders are in control of their own destinies as far as the Pool A bids go.  The ODAC could come down to the 10th or 11th weekend.  Just because Shenandoah lost against Bridgewater doesn't mean they will not compete against the rest of the top half of the league.  The box score is crazy from this past weekend.  The Hornets 4th quarter will be one they will not soon forget.  A pick by the Eagles brought back to  the 2 which resulted in a TD and a fumble by the Hornets on the ensuing kickoff let to 14 points.  The Eagles D held strong with 2 forth down stops after that.  The remaining games of note in the ODAC are:

10/15 Bridgewater vs Randy Mac (both undefeated)
10/22 Randy Mac vs Shenandoah
10/29 Randy Mac vs W&L
11/5 W&L vs Bridgewater
11/12 Shenandoah vs W&L

Hampden-Sydney may also play a role as spoiler based on their offense.  My gut says it boils down to Randy Mac vs W&L.  This is strength vs strength.  Randy Mac is scoring 48 PPG and W&L is allowing 5.8 PPG.  Something will have to give and I can't wait to see which it is.

With the exception of game 1 against CNU (who I can't figure out how they lost to Averett), W&L hasn't played anyone of substance. It's hard to get a feel for them, but they are already banged up and with the last 3 games of the season all against the presumed top of the ODAC, I suspect the Generals appear better than they are going to finish. But I could be wrong.

[jknezek]

Another pretty static week as the favorites held serve. Point totals for the top 3 shifted only one digit, as Huntingdon went from 31 to 30. R-MC's stomping of Bridgewater gained them enough points to move into a tied for 4th with Hardin-Simmons, while B-SC stays steady and Howard Payne gets the 9 points Bridgewater was getting before their ugly trip to R-MC.

This week I only see two interesting games:
Trinity hosts Berry (RV)
R-MC travels to Shenandoah

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 7

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			UMHB (4)			46			0			2 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 1
2			Trinity (TX) (3)			44			0			1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 2
3			Huntingdon			30			0			3 , 3 , 3 , 5 , 5 , 4 , 3
T4			Hardin-Simmons			25			0			5 , 7 , 5 , 2 , 3 , 3 , 6
T4			R-MC			25			1			4 , 4 , 4 , 4 , 4 , 6 , 5
6			B-SC			16			0			7 , 6 , 6 , 6 , 6 , 5 , 4
7			Howard Payne			9			---			6 , 5 , 7 , 7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
Berry (1)

Newly Ranked: Howard Payne
Dropped Out: Bridgewater (Prev:7)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Hawks88, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, ksclegal, Cowboy2, jknezek

[BSCpanthers]

ASC has three teams in, but are they deserving???  I have all three in my poll, but they are on shaky ground.  Of the only 3 teams in the ASC with winning records, they are 4-2 in non conference, but no wins over teams with winning records, they do have one win over a team that is .500.  As a conference they are 6-12 OOC. 

Compare to the SAA and the ODAC are both 15-9 OOC, also both conference have five of their eight members at .500 or above. 

The USAC matches the ASC with a 6-12 OOC record, but they only have two teams of their nine with winning records.

I realize that not all OOC schedules are the same, but when you can't win OOC games against teams over .500, does it count???   

[jknezek]

Who else would you include?

Start with the SAA. Berry got the only other vote, and in my mind they are the best alternative. They are a 2 loss team and have Trinity on the schedule this week. Centre is a 2 loss team with B-SC and Trinity still ahead. If Berry was questionable, how can Centre be on the docket?

Move to the ODAC. Shenandoah is a one-loss team that got beat by Bridgewater who got monkey-stomped by R-MC. Getting monkey-stomped by R-MC is not the same as being monkey-stomped by UMHB. It's just a different level. W&L is a one loss team that still faces Shenandoah, Bridgewater and R-MC. Calling W&L's schedule soft so far is an understatement.

The USASAC outside of Huntingdon... M'Ville lost to Berry and Centre. So that leaves Belhaven, who got beat by 2 scores by Huntingdon, which again, is not the same thing as getting beaten by UMHB. Otherwise, Belhaven's best result is? Beating Millsaps? A team that squeaked past Sewanee? Southwestern? A team UMHB dismantled by 54 without trying? Methodist? A team Shenandoah and W&L easily beat on the road?

Despite all this, you could make a case for Belhaven, Berry (going into this weekend, we will see coming out), or Howard Payne, though I think the poll got it right with the latter two over the first. But when you look at them, Belhaven has already lost to the only good team they play, Berry is 1-2 against the 4 good teams they play, and I strongly think it will be 1-3 after this weekend, and Howard Payne has lost to one of three.

I think it was a toss-up between Berry and HPU for me and I gave it to HPU because I think they have a better shot at beating Hardin-Simmons than Berry has of beating Trinity, though I think both teams will take 2 score or more losses in those games.

There isn't a great option for that 7th spot. I had hopes for Bridgewater, but that blowout in Ashland last weekend was... disappointing for the Eagles.

[BSCpanthers]

I agree with everything you're saying, that 7th spot is tough right now.  Like I said in my post, I had all 3 of the ASC teams in my poll, just not in the same order as the poll.  If Berry can pull a win this weekend, it really jumbles the polls, and puts BSC back in the picture for the SAA conference championship.  Also looking forward to the HPU and Hardin-Simmons game this weekend, that can also greatly effect the poll. 

Still four more weeks to get it settled out.

(Shhhh, my perspective of the ASC is all about getting BSC into that Group C spot over Hardin-Simmons.  Just pushing my narrative) 

[Ralph Turner]

ASC has three teams in, but are they deserving???  I have all three in my poll, but they are on shaky ground.  Of the only 3 teams in the ASC with winning records, they are 4-2 in non conference, but no wins over teams with winning records, they do have one win over a team that is .500.  As a conference they are 6-12 OOC. 

Compare to the SAA and the ODAC are both 15-9 OOC, also both conference have five of their eight members at .500 or above. 

The USAC matches the ASC with a 6-12 OOC record, but they only have two teams of their nine with winning records.

I realize that not all OOC schedules are the same, but when you can't win OOC games against teams over .500, does it count???   

The poll suggests that the decision for #7 was between Berry and HPU.

Berry showed very well against UWW and that is an important consideration.
One could contrast that with HPU's loss to George Fox and vote accordingly.

I am sure that the ASC teams have tried to schedule games against D3 schools.

HSU would be glad to play any SAA team.
Trinity is to be commended for the Wheaton game. They also played Texas Lutheran, just 40 miles up the road, a natural rival. TUTx also played SRSU. The Lobos have a large alumni base in San Antonio, so they schedule Trinity frequently.

It is very easy to cherry pick games for analysis.

ETBU played Oshkosh. They do play a lot of WIAC teams over the past decade. They had to fill their 10th game against North American, as did HPU and Texas Lutheran. (Those may have been a last-minute option to fill the Belhaven vacancy.)
The SAA got 2 wins against McMurry, a school that has had only 16 wins in 7 seasons, and only 5 wins in the last 31 games. That is a good game schedule if your team needs a winnable game.
Hendrix and Rhodes picked up wins against Austin College, which has not had a season above 5-5 (.500) since 2000.


... and jknezek had a good post while I was composing this.

I am the lone Berry vote. Had HPU beaten GFU earlier in the season, then I would have had them around 7th all season long. For me, HPU is a strong, very solid 8th or 9th team in Region 3.

I am not sure who deserves to be #7.

[Ralph Turner]

HSU's shutting out Platteville for the 1st time since about 2007, something no one else in the WIAC has done since, surely looks impressive, with UWP messing up the WIAC.

I am reminded of Coach Darrell K Royal's response after TCU beat #1 Texas, 6-0, in 1961 about cockroaches.

The most famous of the 81 meetings between Texas and TCU came in 1961, when the Longhorns boasted a No. 1 ranking. The Horned Frogs recorded the only score of the game, a flea-flicker TD pass, for the 6-0 upset. The victory by the presky Frogs prompted Texas coach Darrell Royal to refer to them as "coackroaches." "It's not so much what they eat and carry off," Royal said. "It's what they get into and mess up."

[Etchglow]

ASC has three teams in, but are they deserving???  I have all three in my poll, but they are on shaky ground.  Of the only 3 teams in the ASC with winning records, they are 4-2 in non conference, but no wins over teams with winning records, they do have one win over a team that is .500.  As a conference they are 6-12 OOC. 

Compare to the SAA and the ODAC are both 15-9 OOC, also both conference have five of their eight members at .500 or above. 

The USAC matches the ASC with a 6-12 OOC record, but they only have two teams of their nine with winning records.

I realize that not all OOC schedules are the same, but when you can't win OOC games against teams over .500, does it count???   

I mean, the SAA may be 15-9 OOC but only one of the 15 wins has been against a team with a winning record (Wheaton).  Technically, the ASC has two wins against .500 teams (UW-P and Muhlenberg are both .500).  Combined, the ASC teams with a .500 or above record are 3-2 against teams with an 18-12 record (Since we're talking rankings I'm leaving out HSU's win against Wayland Baptist as they're not DIII).  The SAA teams at .500 or over are 10-5 against teams with a 45-49 record.   

[Hawks88]

I agree with everything you're saying, that 7th spot is tough right now.  Like I said in my post, I had all 3 of the ASC teams in my poll, just not in the same order as the poll.  If Berry can pull a win this weekend, it really jumbles the polls, and puts BSC back in the picture for the SAA conference championship.  Also looking forward to the HPU and Hardin-Simmons game this weekend, that can also greatly effect the poll. 

Still four more weeks to get it settled out.

(Shhhh, my perspective of the ASC is all about getting BSC into that Group C spot over Hardin-Simmons.  Just pushing my narrative) 

According to this - https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/SEP2022D3CC_September1213Report.pdf - posted in a couple of other discussions today, the mileage for bus trips in the post-season is back to 500 miles which pushes the HCAC champ and WashU out of the possible bus ride 1st round matchups for Huntingdon so it would help if one of the non-Texas SAA teams can find a way to get in so we aren't in the same boat as in 2016. The difference is that in 2016 we had no results vs regionally ranked opponents so it would also help if BSC and/or Belhaven could at least get ranked to add to the result against Linfield to increase the chances of a home game.

[Wild Horse Rider]

I believe there is a realistic shot at one or both BSU and Belhaven making the regional rankings.  Belhaven will finish 9-1 baring a major upset.  BSU is in the same boat and will likely finish 8-2.  If I was a betting man I think it shakes out like this with no regard to the order:

UMHB (9-1), Trinity (10-0), Randy Mac (10-0), Huntingdon (9-1), HSU (9-1), BSU (8-2) all regionally ranked at the end and much like the straw pole conducted here weekly the 7th team could be any number of schools.  I see the contenders as:

USAC- Belhaven- 9-1 with one regionally ranked opponent (loss to Huntingdon)
ODAC- W&L or Shenandoah 8-2 with one regionally ranked opponent (loss to Randy Mac)
SAA- None besides the 2 above.  I assume at this point Berry will lose to Trinity.  That will give them 3 regionally ranked opponents but all three losses
ASC- None besides the 2 above.  I assume that Howard Payne will lose to both HSU and UMHB

There are still a lot of games to be played between now and then but I don't think this will surprise many people if this is the end result

[BSCpanthers]

I agree with everything you're saying, that 7th spot is tough right now.  Like I said in my post, I had all 3 of the ASC teams in my poll, just not in the same order as the poll.  If Berry can pull a win this weekend, it really jumbles the polls, and puts BSC back in the picture for the SAA conference championship.  Also looking forward to the HPU and Hardin-Simmons game this weekend, that can also greatly effect the poll. 

Still four more weeks to get it settled out.

(Shhhh, my perspective of the ASC is all about getting BSC into that Group C spot over Hardin-Simmons.  Just pushing my narrative) 

According to this - https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/SEP2022D3CC_September1213Report.pdf - posted in a couple of other discussions today, the mileage for bus trips in the post-season is back to 500 miles which pushes the HCAC champ and WashU out of the possible bus ride 1st round matchups for Huntingdon so it would help if one of the non-Texas SAA teams can find a way to get in so we aren't in the same boat as in 2016. The difference is that in 2016 we had no results vs regionally ranked opponents so it would also help if BSC and/or Belhaven could at least get ranked to add to the result against Linfield to increase the chances of a home game.

I'd be alright coming to your house this year for the playoffs, make it an annual thing between us as we play 2 each year. 

[Etchglow]

I believe there is a realistic shot at one or both BSU and Belhaven making the regional rankings.  Belhaven will finish 9-1 baring a major upset.  BSU is in the same boat and will likely finish 8-2.  If I was a betting man I think it shakes out like this with no regard to the order:

UMHB (9-1), Trinity (10-0), Randy Mac (10-0), Huntingdon (9-1), HSU (9-1), BSU (8-2) all regionally ranked at the end and much like the straw pole conducted here weekly the 7th team could be any number of schools.  I see the contenders as:

USAC- Belhaven- 9-1 with one regionally ranked opponent (loss to Huntingdon)
ODAC- W&L or Shenandoah 8-2 with one regionally ranked opponent (loss to Randy Mac)
SAA- None besides the 2 above.  I assume at this point Berry will lose to Trinity.  That will give them 3 regionally ranked opponents but all three losses
ASC- None besides the 2 above.  I assume that Howard Payne will lose to both HSU and UMHB

There are still a lot of games to be played between now and then but I don't think this will surprise many people if this is the end result

The ASC homer in me dreams that HPU gets in; I think they've got an outside chance at beating Hardin-Simmons.  If not, maybe George Fox gets some love and they're 0-3 vs RRO?  lol