FB: Region 3 fan poll

Ralph Turner · October 28, 2011, 12:33:42 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2011, 09:41:19 PM
Going with 5 ballots... (Records are overall/in-region/conference In-region loss)

1) UMHB (5) 50 1,1,1,1,1 7-0/6-0/5-0
2) Wesley 42 2,2,2,3,4 6-1/3-1/0-0 Kean
3) Thomas More 39 2,2,3,3,6 7-0/7-0/6-0
4T) Salisbury 31 4,4,5,5,6 7-0/6-0/5-0
4T) JHU 31 3,4,4,6,7 7-0/6-0/6-0

6) Centre 15 6,6,8,9,x 6-0/6-0/3-0
7) Louisiana Coll 14 3,7,10,10,x 6-1/5-1/4-1 UMHB
8T) B-SC 13 8,8,8,8,10 5-1/4-1/2-1 Centre
8T) Trinity 13 5,7,9,10,x 7-0/7-0/3-0
10) McMurry 12 5,5,x,x,x 5-2/4-1/4-1 UMHB

RV) W&L 6 7,9,x,x,x 7-1/7-1/4-0 Centre
RV) Huntingdon 5 9,9,10,x,x 6-2/4-2/0-0 BSC Trinity
RV) W&J 4 7,x,x,x,x 4-3/4-3/3-2 Del Valley, Thomas More, St Vincent

Sorry for the lack of information previously.

Ralph Turner · October 28, 2011, 07:14:09 AM

Pat Coleman confirmed Salisbury is now an East Region team.

Week #9 ballot will reflect that change.

jknezek · October 28, 2011, 07:55:57 AM

Quote from: wesleydad on October 27, 2011, 10:29:07 PM
jk, voters are just that voters. most go by what they hear or read. very few get out and see enough games to get a clear understanding of how good teams are. it is easy to disagree with anyone who votes, but they are at least voting. open to criticism from anyone who wants to criticize. i figure it is hard to come up with teams to vote for so most go with the team that they may have heard about. i wonder why if they are voting that they at least dont take the time to see what you came up with.

Fair enough. You are right. I will volunteer next year to be the pinata. It only seems right. This year I didn't think I had a good enough grasp on some groups in the region. Hopefully I will remember to get off the couch and into the pot...

ExTartanPlayer · October 28, 2011, 08:34:35 AM

Quote from: jknezek on October 27, 2011, 10:15:39 PM
Absolutely amazed that someone doesn't have Centre on their ballot and yet has B-SC ranked. For the life of me, that makes no sense. You have a recent, road win in a head to head and a one loss team versus and undefeated team. The game wasn't even that close even when you ignore the score. Total yards of 455 - 304, 2 punts versus 6 punts, 8 third down conversions to 3. Even if you ignore the last score on an interception return for a TD, it was still a 3 score game (37-20). What part of this game did B-SC win that the voter believes they are a better team?

knezek, FWIW, I agree, but that's nothing compared to some of the shenanigans that happen on Division I ballots. wesleydad's point is well taken; voters are imperfect. Some are homers, some are just ill-informed, some make honest mistakes.

Ralph Turner · October 29, 2011, 05:00:27 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2011, 09:41:19 PM
Going with 5 ballots...

1) UMHB (5) 50 1,1,1,1,1 at HPU 36-0 halftime
2) Wesley 42 2,2,2,3,4 Beat Salisbury 23-14
3) Thomas More 39 2,2,3,3,6 Won at Westminster 27-10
4T) Salisbury 31 4,4,5,5,6 East Region Salisbury loses at Wesley 23-14.
4T) JHU 31 3,4,4,6,7 Beats Ursinus 37-9

6) Centre 15 6,6,8,9,x Won at Millsaps 24-22
7) Louisiana Coll 14 3,7,10,10,x at Texas Lutheran
8T) B-SC 13 8,8,8,8,10 Lost at Trinity 24-16
8T) Trinity 13 5,7,9,10,x Beat B-SC 24-16,
10) McMurry 12 5,5,x,x,x Beat HSU 24-14.

RV) W&L 6 7,9,x,x,x Beat Catholic 49-13
RV) Huntingdon 5 9,9,10,x,x Open Date
RV) W&J 4 7,x,x,x,x Lost at Grove City 24-21

jknezek · October 29, 2011, 06:30:14 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2011, 05:00:27 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2011, 09:41:19 PM
Going with 5 ballots...

1) UMHB (5) 50 1,1,1,1,1 at HPU 36-0 halftime
2) Wesley 42 2,2,2,3,4 Beat Salisbury 23-14
3) Thomas More 39 2,2,3,3,6 Won at Westminster 27-10
4T) Salisbury 31 4,4,5,5,6 East Region Salisbury loses at Wesley 23-14.
4T) JHU 31 3,4,4,6,7 Beats Ursinus 37-9

6) Centre 15 6,6,8,9,x Won at Millsaps 24-22
7) Louisiana Coll 14 3,7,10,10,x at Texas Lutheran
8T) B-SC 13 8,8,8,8,10 Lost at Trinity 24-16
8T) Trinity 13 5,7,9,10,x Beat B-SC 24-16,
10) McMurry 12 5,5,x,x,x Beat HSU 24-14.

RV) W&L 6 7,9,x,x,x Beat Catholic 49-13
RV) Huntingdon 5 9,9,10,x,x Open Date
RV) W&J 4 7,x,x,x,x Lost at Grove City 24-21

Might want to put on there that W&L beat Catholic

Ralph Turner · October 29, 2011, 06:33:11 PM

Quote from: jknezek on October 29, 2011, 06:30:14 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2011, 05:00:27 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2011, 09:41:19 PM
Going with 5 ballots...

1) UMHB (5) 50 1,1,1,1,1 at HPU 36-0 halftime
2) Wesley 42 2,2,2,3,4 Beat Salisbury 23-14
3) Thomas More 39 2,2,3,3,6 Won at Westminster 27-10
4T) Salisbury 31 4,4,5,5,6 East Region Salisbury loses at Wesley 23-14.
4T) JHU 31 3,4,4,6,7 Beats Ursinus 37-9

6) Centre 15 6,6,8,9,x Won at Millsaps 24-22
7) Louisiana Coll 14 3,7,10,10,x at Texas Lutheran
8T) B-SC 13 8,8,8,8,10 Lost at Trinity 24-16
8T) Trinity 13 5,7,9,10,x Beat B-SC 24-16,
10) McMurry 12 5,5,x,x,x Beat HSU 24-14.

RV) W&L 6 7,9,x,x,x Beat Catholic 49-13
RV) Huntingdon 5 9,9,10,x,x Open Date
RV) W&J 4 7,x,x,x,x Lost at Grove City 24-21

Might want to put on there that W&L beat Catholic

Thanks!

jknezek · October 29, 2011, 06:54:27 PM

Interesting weekend. We have AQs for the CC (JHU holds H2H over 'berg, 'burg, and Ursinus), and the PAC (TMC). Next weekend the ODAC (W&L at H-SC) and the SCAC (Centre at Trinity) will have defacto title games as the winner of either game cannot be caught. If Ferrum beats Shenandoah tomorrow, the USAS could have a defacto title game next weekend (CNU at Ferrum). In the ASC (UMHB holds H2H over La Col and Mcm) UMBH can wrap up an AQ next weekend with a win over 2-6 Sul Ross State, so every conference AQ in the South Region could be wrapped up before the last week of the season.

We have lost B-SC from the Pool C hunt, leaving the loser of Centre at Trinity needing to win their last game to go 9-1. Similarly the loser of Mcm at La Col next week will drop from the hunt, assuming La Col comes out of TLU today (up 16-13 at the half).

Wesley's win today has to give them the inside track on the Pool B, although CWRU is hanging in with a matching win. Wesley at Apprentice next week shouldn't pose a problem and then a home game against Huntingdon, who with 2 losses already is marginal at best.

Basically, next weekend is a big one and the final weekend of the season less so. Interesting how that is shaking out.

Ralph Turner · October 29, 2011, 07:24:09 PM

If Kean wins the NJAC, Wesley's loss to Kean doesn't look that debilitating to their Pool B chances.

The question will be who hosts the first 2 rounds of the 'northern' half of the South Bracket.

jknezek · October 29, 2011, 07:33:49 PM

Yeah. I don't think a 1 loss Wesley has any problems getting a bid. Especially now that one of the secondary criteria is past performance. The big issue was a 2 loss Wesley that only played 6 D3 games. That would have been tough to justify. I just don't think Huntingdon on the road is going to have the chops to make that happen. But I wouldn't have thought Kean would have either. Any Given Saturday!

PA_wesleyfan · October 29, 2011, 11:55:07 PM

Kean doesn't beat Wesley without the two blocked punts inside the 20. But they did . And losing to a regionally ranked team does look better for Wesley in the end IMHO. I have to get caught up on all the other action today. Just got home to 6 inches of snow !!!!

wesleydad · October 30, 2011, 08:27:10 AM

ralph, i would think that johns hopkins will be the 2 and if wesley runs the table, and i think they will, they will be the 3. the seedings wont really matter as you stated there will be a north bracket and a south bracket. i think wesley will host the odac champ and hopkins will host the usas champ. it would be hard to seed wesley higher than an undefeated hopkins team. i saw them play and they are pretty good. it will be a very good game between them and wesley if they both win in the first round. how will the soutern half look?

HSC85 · October 30, 2011, 11:10:03 AM

Wesleydad,

I agree with your prediction if JHU is undefeated.

Ralph Turner · October 30, 2011, 06:06:32 PM

Thru 10/29... (Records are overall/in-region/conference In-region loss)

1) UMHB (5) 50 1,1,1,1,1 8-0/7-0/6-0
2) Wesley 42 2,2,2,3,4 7-1/4-1/0-0 Kean
3) Thomas More 39 2,2,3,3,6 8-0/7-0/7-0
~~4T) Salisbury 31 4,4,5,5,6 7-0/6-0/5-0~~ East Region team
4T) JHU 31 3,4,4,6,7 8-0/7-0/7-0

6) Centre 15 6,6,8,9,x 7-0/7-0/4-0
7) Louisiana Coll 14 3,7,10,10,x 7-1/6-1/5-1 UMHB
8T) B-SC 13 8,8,8,8,10 5-2/4-2/2-2 Centre, Trinity
8T) Trinity 13 5,7,9,10,x 8-0/8-0/4-0
10) McMurry 12 5,5,x,x,x 6-2/5-1/5-1 UMHB

RV) W&L 6 7,9,x,x,x 8-1/8-1/5-0 Centre
RV) Huntingdon 5 9,9,10,x,x 6-2/4-2/0-0 BSC, Trinity
RV) W&J 4 7,x,x,x,x 4-4/4-4/3-3 Del Valley, Thomas More, St Vincent, Grove City

jknezek · October 31, 2011, 09:47:07 AM

Mock Bracket:

(1) UMHB vs (8) USAS / ODAC Champion
(4) Trinity vs (5) McMurry / La College (234 miles for Mcm, 430 miles for La Col)

(2) JHU vs (7) USAS / ODAC Champion (not Centre, that's 589 miles)
(3) TMC vs (6) Centre

To narrow it down, Ferrum or CNU will have the weakest SOS by far, so I'd send them to UMHB, however that is what happened last year and the committee may want to avoid CNU at UMHB if CNU beats Ferrum. I'm assuming Trinity beats Centre at home to win the SCAC. If not, you could flip the 4/5 seeds, but I'd leave that sub-bracket the same to keep the flights to a minimum.

In the northern half there is a question about Wesley. In this case I'm shipping them to the North bracket, though you could just as easily move the USAS or ODAC champion. The reason I'm moving Wesley is simple, they played the bulk of their D3 schedule against the North (Kean, Husson, Frostburg and Salisbury vs just ETBU and Huntingdon). With fewer undefeated teams in the North, you might also find Wesley a home game. Something I'd find tough in the South with 4 undefeated champions. As noted JHU to TMC is more than 500 miles, so I'd assume that would be avoided as well.

The monkey wrench in the north sub-bracket could be Centre beating Trinity. While I would leave the south sub-bracket alone, I'd give Centre a home game over TMC because they will have a much better SOS and at least one, if not two, wins over RRO (Trinity and possibly W&L). TMC will most likely have none. Could you really have an undefeated conf champion with the highest regional SOS and at least one RRO not hosting a home game in the region? That would be pretty brutal.

Looking at the SOS of teams able to go undefeated you have: Centre (32), UMHB (46), Trinity (78), JHU (120), TMC (171).

Looking at the SOS of the teams most likely to have one loss and get in you have: W&L (24), Centre (32), Wesley (44), H-SC (67), Trinity (78), McMurry (91), La Col (101), Ferrum (185), and CNU (198).

W&L and H-SC, Centre and Trinity, McM and La Col, and Ferrum and CNU all play, so I don't think you'll see their SOS's move much. Wesley will get a crack at a very high SOS Huntingdon, so that should move them up some.