FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

Jaybird I understand your point and mostly agree with it, but you are focusing on SOS like it is the ONLY criteria. It's not. D3 winning percentage is also a primary criteria of the ranking (I think there are 5, go read the Around the Nation column Keith posted last night). It is up to each committee what they want to emphasize. So while Wash U does have a stronger SOS, they also have a worse winning percentage. It seems like the committee is saying that Wesley's SOS trumps TLU's winning percentage, but Wash U's does not.

The criteria doesn't exist in a vacuum, and while you can disagree with the way the committee is choosing to view it, and I do as well, it doesn't make the committee wrong. Or that next year will be the same as this year. Or even that next week will have the same ordering (although we'll never know). Having 2 losses and no AQ makes you a dice roll for the playoffs. There will be any number of 8-2 teams that don't make the playoffs and aren't even considered. Wash U isn't going to be all that special if it happens to them. In fact, they probably won't be, in my opinion, the BEST 8-2 team not to make the field if it happens.

If you lose that second game, you are really at someone else's mercy. If you lose those games to teams that aren't playoff caliber, like seems true with Coe, you are really going to be in trouble. A lot of Wash U's issues will be resolved as they join a conference. This year, however, they may simply have lost one game too many. We will see.

[jaybird44]

I am a little calmer now...so pardon me for having that burr under my saddle.  I did read Keith's article, but I would imagine that he is even scratching his head at how today's regional rankings unfolded.

Upon an attempt at a more subjective review, this process seems much like taking target practice against moving targets, while blindfolded.  Add the double-secret nature of the final rankings, and I get the sense that (for all we know) the committee makes its selections just by drawing names out of a hat or spinning a wheel.  If the committee would give us a clearer definition of how the criteria is weighted, there would be far fewer rubes like me grousing and squawking about this.

Oh well...enough already.  It will be great to get into the SAA and compete for an AQ and the occasional Pool C bid.  Meanwhile, good luck to all the Pool B contestants this week.  I'm not even going to venture a guess on how the Bs will be allotted...

[Ralph Turner]

Week #11

Team	Points	Ballots
1)   UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)   JHU	45	2,2,2,2,2
3)   Wesley	40	3,3,3,3,3
4)   WashUStL	29	4,4,4,6,8
5)   Hampden-Sydney	24	4,6,6,6,9
.	.	.
6)   Wash & Jeff	23	4,5,5,7,x
7)   Thomas More	17	5,5,8,9,x
8)   Millsaps	14	6,8,8,9,x
9T)   Texas Lutheran	9	7,8,9,x,x
9T)   Rhodes	9	7,7,10,x,x
.	.	.
RV)   Maryville TN	8	7,9,10,10,x
RV)    Randolph Macon	6	5,x,x,x,x
RV)    Methodist	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)   LaCollege	1	10,x,x,x,x
.	.	.

Corrections appreciated.

[Ralph Turner]

There is the poll, and I don't think that it is pretty.

I think that we have so much parity beyond the top 3 that ...  sighs....  Okay

#1 Pool A ASC UMHB plays Redlands.
#2 Pool A Centennial JHU hosts #3 Pool B Wesley.
#4 Pool B WashUStL plays at Franklin.
#5 Pool A ODAC H-SC hosts RV Pool A USAC Maryville
#6 Pool A Pres AC W&J plays at Mount Union.
#7 stays home.
#8 stays home.
#9T stays home.
#9T stays home.

RV Randolph-Macon stays home.
RV Methodist stays home.
RV LaCollege stays home.


WashUStL (and UChicago) affiliate with the SAA in 2015 to gain access to the Pool A bid.

[jknezek]

Week #11

Team	Points	Ballots
1)   UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)   JHU	45	2,2,2,2,2
3)   Wesley	40	3,3,3,3,3
4)   WashUStL	29	4,4,4,6,8
5)   Hampden-Sydney	24	4,6,6,6,9
.	.	.
6)   Wash & Jeff	23	4,5,5,7,x
7)   Thomas More	17	5,5,8,9,x
8)   Millsaps	14	6,8,8,9,x
9T)   Texas Lutheran	9	7,8,9,x,x
9T)   Rhodes	9	7,7,10,x,x
.	.	.
RV)   Maryville TN	8	7,9,10,10,x
RV)    Randolph Macon	6	5,x,x,x,x
RV)    Methodist	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)   LaCollege	1	10,x,x,x,x
.	.	.

Corrections appreciated.

AFter 10 games we still have 14 teams. Pretty funny. Not sure I understand some of the votes.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The teams in the poll all make sense to me.  The grand prize winner for strangest vote to me is Randolph-Macon at #5, although I'll give them some credit for anchoring RMC to HSC (since presumably this is the same person who voted HSC at #4) given that RMC only lost by two, and I always find it dumb when a high-ranked team loses close to another high-ranked team and gets crushed in the polls.  I guess I can kinda see RMC getting some votes given that two of their losses came to #2 and #5 (who are #2 and #4 on that voters' ballot), especially given that the bottom of the poll is a very confusing mish-mash and while I am a big UAA fan that supported WashU receiving a Pool B bid, seeing them ranked at #4 in this poll made me do a serious double take.  Closer examination reveals that it's hard to build a truly ironclad case for anyone else below them being ranked higher, though.

[jknezek]

The teams in the poll all make sense to me.  The grand prize winner for strangest vote to me is Randolph-Macon at #5, although I'll give them some credit for anchoring RMC to HSC (since presumably this is the same person who voted HSC at #4) given that RMC only lost by two, and I always find it dumb when a high-ranked team loses close to another high-ranked team and gets crushed in the polls.  I guess I can kinda see RMC getting some votes given that two of their losses came to #2 and #5 (who are #2 and #4 on that voters' ballot), especially given that the bottom of the poll is a very confusing mish-mash and while I am a big UAA fan that supported WashU receiving a Pool B bid, seeing them ranked at #4 in this poll made me do a serious double take.  Closer examination reveals that it's hard to build a truly ironclad case for anyone else below them being ranked higher, though.

The RMC vote was the interesting one for me. They are still a 3 loss team. And the Guilford loss was not so good in the end. Especially since both the JHU blowout and the loss to HSC came at home.

I've got Wash U at 4 simply because I couldn't figure out who to put higher. I'm also one of the higher voters on Rhodes. Looking at that body of work, if they hadn't lost a road overtime game to BSC, on a failed 2 pt conversion... Well ifs and buts and all that, but that loss is easier on my eyes than the ones some of the other teams took. Especially since they own a win against Millsaps and a tight loss at Wash U. The LC vote is a head scratcher as well. Lost to out of poll Huntingdon, barely in poll TLU, and a good loss against UMHB. But I just don't see them as belonging in this group since they don't have any kind of a good win. Then again, I didn't have TLU belonging either...

[Toby Taff]

The teams in the poll all make sense to me.  The grand prize winner for strangest vote to me is Randolph-Macon at #5, although I'll give them some credit for anchoring RMC to HSC (since presumably this is the same person who voted HSC at #4) given that RMC only lost by two, and I always find it dumb when a high-ranked team loses close to another high-ranked team and gets crushed in the polls.  I guess I can kinda see RMC getting some votes given that two of their losses came to #2 and #5 (who are #2 and #4 on that voters' ballot), especially given that the bottom of the poll is a very confusing mish-mash and while I am a big UAA fan that supported WashU receiving a Pool B bid, seeing them ranked at #4 in this poll made me do a serious double take.  Closer examination reveals that it's hard to build a truly ironclad case for anyone else below them being ranked higher, though.

The RMC vote was the interesting one for me. They are still a 3 loss team. And the Guilford loss was not so good in the end. Especially since both the JHU blowout and the loss to HSC came at home.

I've got Wash U at 4 simply because I couldn't figure out who to put higher. I'm also one of the higher voters on Rhodes. Looking at that body of work, if they hadn't lost a road overtime game to BSC, on a failed 2 pt conversion... Well ifs and buts and all that, but that loss is easier on my eyes than the ones some of the other teams took. Especially since they own a win against Millsaps and a tight loss at Wash U. The LC vote is a head scratcher as well. Lost to out of poll Huntingdon, barely in poll TLU, and a good loss against UMHB. But I just don't see them as belonging in this group since they don't have any kind of a good win. Then again, I didn't have TLU belonging either...

my final poll has WashU at 4 as well because I gave some bit of a plus for being in the field of 32. I dropped Millsaps, who would have been my #10 and gave that spot to LC because I've seen LC play a few times and honestly believe that in a series verses Millsaps it would be pretty even. LC has a good team, they're just young.
I put Rhodes back in my top 10, but to be quite honest after the first 3 I think the region is pretty much a jump ball. You have a few really good teams and some really bad teams and then you have the creamy filling of parity. HSU played poorly this season, but I wouldn't bet against them in any game against the middle part of the south region because they showed flashes of greatness. HSU is also a young team who is supposed to have a freshman QB on the JV that is pretty good.
In all, my final poll tries to reflect the strength of the south, credit to those who did what was necessary to keep from stacking the pads, and the parity (or maybe mediocrity) in the south region.

[Ralph Turner]

I had trouble with the resounding ugliness demonstrated by almost every team.

WashU was one-yard away from losing to first year Hendrix. The Hendrix receiver was tackled on the 1 yd line.  And only beating Macalester by 7-0?  Ick!

How many years has it been since an ODAC team not named Bridgewater has won a playoff game? (I cannot lay my fingers on the record book that answers that question.)

I have to give props to W&J and Thomas More, but they have not shown well against Texas teams in the playoffs.

I guess my problem is that I wanted to abstain from voting for #4, #5, #6 and maybe #7.

[jknezek]

I had trouble with the resounding ugliness demonstrated by almost every team.

WashU was one-yard away from losing to first year Hendrix. The Hendrix receiver was tackled on the 1 yd line.  And only beating Macalester by 7-0?  Ick!

How many years has it been since an ODAC team not named Bridgewater has won a playoff game? (I cannot lay my fingers on the record book that answers that question.)
I have to give props to W&J and Thomas More, but they have not shown well against Texas teams in the playoffs.

I guess my problem is that I wanted to abstain from voting for #4, #5, #6 and maybe #7.

It might be E&H in 1992. I think they beat TMC. In the AQ era, only Bridgewater has won a playoff game.

[Ralph Turner]

I had trouble with the resounding ugliness demonstrated by almost every team.

WashU was one-yard away from losing to first year Hendrix. The Hendrix receiver was tackled on the 1 yd line.  And only beating Macalester by 7-0?  Ick!

How many years has it been since an ODAC team not named Bridgewater has won a playoff game? (I cannot lay my fingers on the record book that answers that question.)
I have to give props to W&J and Thomas More, but they have not shown well against Texas teams in the playoffs.

I guess my problem is that I wanted to abstain from voting for #4, #5, #6 and maybe #7.

It might be E&H in 1992. I think they beat TMC. In the AQ era, only Bridgewater has won a playoff game.

Thanks for the response.  +1!

[Ralph Turner]

My ballot was this.

1)  UMHB
2)  JHU
3)  Wesley
4)  W&J
5)  Thomas More

6)  Wash U
7)  TLU
8)  Millsaps
9)  H-SC
10) Murvul

[Scots13]

Was that the last time the ODAC won a playoff game in any one season the '01 Bridgewater trip to the Stagg?

[tigerfanalso]

Correct, Bridgewater is the last ODAC team to win a playoff game.

[jknezek]

Was that the last time the ODAC won a playoff game in any one season the '01 Bridgewater trip to the Stagg?

No. In 2005 Bridgewater won at Thiel before losing at Wesley in the NCAA playoffs. That 2005 win was the last ODAC playoff victory. Of course, this will be only the third home game for the ODAC since 2003 in the playoffs, so those teams weren't really expected to win.

In 2006, W&L was an 8 seed at Wilkes. 2007 HSC went to Wesley. 2008 RMC went to Mount as an 8 seed. 2009 JHU beat HSC during the Jays run to the Elite 8. 2010 HSC lost at home to Montclair as a 4 seed while W&L lost at TMC as a 7 or 8 seed (can't remember, don't care to look it up). 2011 HSC  lost at Centre as a 5 or 6 seed, 2012 W&L lost at Hobart as a 7 seed.

Bad seeds, a little unlucky (drawing a hot JHU in 2009), and one unfortunate loss (HSC losing to Montclair St at home) and you have a long string of futility.