FB: Region 3 fan poll

wesleydad · November 07, 2010, 08:39:55 AM

looking at the 8 teams ralph listed as possible south reps. i think depauw gets shipped out since they dont seem to match up with anyone. hampden sydney gets a "c" with a win at macon. if salisbury gets in as a "b" i think they get shipped east. in order then we have wesley, umhb, hardin simmons, thomas moore, wash and lee, hampden sydney, muhlenberg, and cnu. first round could look like this, a very uneducated guess but i did check the mileage.

1. wesley - 8. cnu - rematch from week one
4. wash and lee - 6. hampden sydney - quick rematch
3. thomas moore - 7. muhlenberg - 490 or so miles according to google
2. umhb - 5. hardin simmons, using ralph's thoughts on this one, shame that it might have to happen

hampden sydney and muhlenberg could be switched, but i think h-s gets seeded higher.

Ryan Tipps · November 07, 2010, 07:25:40 PM

Unless geography is a real hinderance (as in the UMHB-HSU case), the NCAA does try to avoid conference rematches in the first round. With CNU and Muhlenberg and Wesley relatively close by, Hampden-Sydney and Washington & Lee won't see each other on Nov. 20.

Both H-SC and W&L are within driving distance of Thomas More, but that would mean DePauw would be left hanging unless they get shipped to the North Bracket.

wesleydad · November 07, 2010, 08:00:16 PM

ryan, i thought i had heard that before. i think depauw gets moved, so if muhlenberg and hampden sydney get flipped then it works. just throwing it out there.

Ryan Tipps · November 07, 2010, 08:25:36 PM

I know this is the fan poll board, so it may be getting a little off-track to keep with the bracket discussion here, but these are two scenarios I could see happening:

This assumes DePauw gets shipped North. (Probably makes the most sense from the South Region perspective.)
1. Wesley vs. 8. USA South winner
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. 5. Hardin-Simmons
3. Thomas More vs. 7. Hampden-Sydney
4. Washington & Lee vs. 6. Muhlenberg

This assumes Wesley gets shipped East. (Two travesties in this scenario with the Texas subbracket and the DPU/TMC pairing. But driving distance is the deciding factor.)
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. 5. Hardin-Simmons
2. DePauw vs. 3. Thomas More
4. Washington & Lee vs. 8. USA South winner
6. Muhlenberg vs. 7. Hampden-Sydney

Ralph Turner · November 08, 2010, 11:43:58 PM

Week #10

Rank	Team	(#1's)	Points	Votes	Noivember 6th opponents
1)	Wesley (ACFC)	(5)	50	(1,1,1,1,1)	Kean
2)	UMHB (ASC)		45	(2,2,2,2,2)	Texas Lutheran
3T)	TMC (Pres AC)		37.5	(3,3,3T,4,4)	Mount St Joseph
3T)	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)		37.5	(3,3,3T,4,4)	at Louisiana College
5)	DPU (SCAC)		30	(5,5,5,5,5)	at Wabash
6)	Muhlenburg (CC)		19	(6,6,7,8,9)	at Moravian
7)	Washington & Lee (ODAC)		18	(6,7,7,8,9)	at Juniata
8)	Salisbury (ACFC)		17	(6,6,8,8,10)	at Frostburg State
9)	Hampden-Sydney (ODAC)		11	(7,7,9,10,-)	Randolph-Macon
10)	Wash & Jeff (PresAC)		7	(8,9,9,-,-)	at Waynesburg
*	*	*	*	*	*
RV)	Ursinus (CC)		2	(10,10,-,-,-)	Dickinson
RV)	RMC (ODAC)		1	(10,-,-,-,-)	at Hampden-Sydney

Corrections appreciated.

wesleydad · November 09, 2010, 08:06:26 PM

not sure how you can vote salisbury ahead of hampden sydney when hampden beat them head to head.

Ralph Turner · November 10, 2010, 07:18:17 PM

Quote from: wesleydad on November 09, 2010, 08:06:26 PM
not sure how you can vote salisbury ahead of hampden sydney when hampden beat them head to head.

Apparently the HSC loss to W&L suggested a different team than the one that beat Salsibury earlier in the season.

Jerry Bawcom · November 17, 2010, 11:00:20 AM

Am I missing some pages, or did this discussion end with the posting of the bracket?

Bob.Gregg · November 17, 2010, 03:27:12 PM

Polls in D-III aren't in much demand once the tournament starts.

That's the great thing about D-III----it's decided ON THE FIELD, the only poll that matters.

Ralph Turner · November 17, 2010, 03:38:26 PM

Quote from: Jerry Bawcom on November 17, 2010, 11:00:20 AM
Am I missing some pages, or did this discussion end with the posting of the bracket?

I am wating on 2 more ballots for Week #11 and then we do a final poll.

Ralph Turner · November 21, 2010, 01:57:45 PM

Week #11 (before the playoffs)

Rank	Team	(#1's)	Points	Votes	First Round outcome
1)	Wesley (ACFC)	(5)	50	(1,1,1,1,1)	Beat #8 seed Muhlenberg 53-14
2)	UMHB (ASC)		45	(2,2,2,2,2)	Beat #7 seed CNU 59-7
3)	TMC (Pres AC)		40	(3,3,3,3,3)	Beat #6 seed W&L 42-14
4)	Hampden-Sydney (ODAC)		27	(4,4,5,6,9)	Lost to #5 Montclair State, 16-14. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/5-1
5)	Washington & Lee (ODAC)		24	(4,5,5,8,9)	Lost at #3 Thomas More 42-14. *Season complete 8-3/8-2/6-0
6T)	Salisbury (ACFC)		20	(6,6,7,7,9)	Lost at "East" #4 Delaware Valley 23-12. 7-3/6-2/2-1
6T)	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)		20	(4,4,8,8,-)	*Season complete at 8-2/8-2/6-2
8)	Muhlenburg (CC)		14	(6,7,8,9,-)	Lost at #1 Wesley 53-14. *Season complete 7-4/7-3/7-2
9)	DPU (SCAC)		13	(5,8,9,10,10)	Lost to #5 Trine 45-35. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/6-0
10)	Louisiana College (ASC)		11	(5,7,10,-,-)	*Season Complete 7-3/6-3/6-2
*	*	*	*	*	*
RV)	Wash & Jeff (PresAC)		6	(7,10,10,-,-)	Beat F&M in ECAC Southwest Bowl. 9-2/8-2/6-1
RV)	Ursinus (CC)		5	(6,-,-,-,-)	*Season complete 8-2/8-2/7-2

* Final record is stated as overall record/ in-region/ conference.
Corrections appreciated.

Final poll will be released after the Stagg Bowl.

Ralph Turner · November 25, 2010, 07:55:45 PM

Here is a summary of the season to date.

Team	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Final	*
Wesley	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	*	*
UMHB	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	.	.
Thomas More	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3T	3	3T	3T	3	.	.
Hampden-Sydney	9T	8	6	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	9	4	.	.
Washington & Lee	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	7	5	.	.
Hardin-Simmons	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	3T	4	3T	3T	6T	.	.
Salisbury	.	.	RV	RV	RV	9	9	8	8	7	8	6T	.	.
Muhlenberg	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	10	10T	9	6	8	.	.
DePauw	.	RV	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	9	.	.
Louisiana College	9T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	10	.	.
.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Averett	RV	.	.	.	.	RV	10	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.
Bridgewater	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.
Birmingham-Southern	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Centre	8	RV	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Emory & Henry	.	.	.	.	RV	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Franklin & Marshall	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.
Huntingdon	RV	RV	10T	10	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Johns Hopkins	6	7	10T	RV	9	RV	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Millsaps	RV	RV	.	.	.	9	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Mississippi College	5	5	5	8T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
NCWC	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Randolph-Macon	RV	9	7	6	6	5	5	9	9	8	RV	.	.	.
Trinity	9T	RV	10T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Ursinus	RV	10	9	8T	8	8	8	7	7	10	RV	RV	.	.
Washington & Jefferson	7	6	RV	RV	10	10	.	.	RV	RV	10	RV	.	.

Ralph Turner · December 09, 2010, 11:21:39 PM

Final Poll (after Week #14)

Rank	Team	(#1's)	Points	Votes	Post-season outcomes
1)	Wesley (ACFC)	(5)	50	(1,1,1,1,1)	Beat #8 seed Muhlenberg 53-14; beat #5 seed Montclair State 44-7; beat #2 seed UMHB 19-9
2)	UMHB (ASC)		45	(2,2,2,2,2)	Beat #7 seed CNU 59-7; beat #3 seed Thomas More 69-7; lost to #1 seed Wesley 19-9
3)	Hardin-Simmons (ASC)		32	(3,4,4,5,7)	*Season complete at 8-2/8-2/6-2
4)	TMC (Pres AC)		31	(3,3,3,7,8)	Beat #6 seed W&L 42-14; lost to #2 seed UMHB 69-7
5)	Salisbury (ACFC)		26	(4,5,5,6,-)	Lost at "East" #4 Delaware Valley 23-12. 7-3/6-2/2-1
6T)	Hampden-Sydney (ODAC)		19	(4,7,8,9,9)	Lost to #5 Montclair State, 16-14. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/5-1
6T)	Louisiana College (ASC)		19	(3,4,7,-,-)	*Season Complete 7-3/6-3/6-2
8)	DPU (SCAC)		17	(5,6,6,10,-)	Lost to #5 Trine 45-35. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/6-0
9)	Wash & Jeff (PresAC)		13	(6,6,9,10,-)	Beat F&M in ECAC Southwest Bowl. 9-2/8-2/6-1
10)	Washington & Lee (ODAC)		9	(5,8,-,-,-)	Lost at #3 Thomas More 42-14. *Season complete 8-3/8-2/6-0
*	*	*	*	*	*
RV)	Muhlenburg (CC)		6	(8,9,10,-,-)	Lost at #1 Wesley 53-14. *Season complete 7-4/7-3/7-2
RV)	Johns Hopkins (CC)		4	(7,-,-,-,-)	Beat Lebanon Valley 44-14 in ECAC South Atlantic Bowl
RV)	Ursinus (CC)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 8-2/8-2/7-2
RV)	North Carolina Wesleyan (USA South)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/6-1
RV)	Randolph-Macon (ODAC)		1	(10,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/3-3
RV)	Wash U (UAA)		1	10,-,-,-,-	Season complete 7-3/4-2/2-1

* Final record is stated as overall record/ in-region/ conference.
Corrections appreciated.

Thanks to hasanova, PA_Wesleyan, roocru and Wes Anderson for their hard work and prompt responses.

Ralph Turner · December 09, 2010, 11:21:58 PM

Here is a summary of the season.

Team	Pre	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Final	*
Wesley	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	*
UMHB	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	.
Hardin-Simmons	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	3T	4	3T	3T	6T	3	.
Thomas More	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3T	3	3T	3T	3	4	.
Salisbury	.	.	RV	RV	RV	9	9	8	8	7	8	6T	5	.
Hampden-Sydney	9T	8	6	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	9	4	6T	.
Louisiana College	9T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	10	6T	.
DePauw	.	RV	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	9	8	.
Washington & Jefferson	7	6	RV	RV	10	10	.	.	RV	RV	10	RV	9	.
Washington & Lee	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	7	5	10	.
.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Averett	RV	.	.	.	.	RV	10	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.
Bridgewater	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.
Birmingham-Southern	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Centre	8	RV	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Emory & Henry	.	.	.	.	RV	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Franklin & Marshall	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.	.	.	.	.
Huntingdon	RV	RV	10T	10	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Johns Hopkins	6	7	10T	RV	9	RV	RV	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.
Millsaps	RV	RV	.	.	.	9	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Mississippi College	5	5	5	8T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Muhlenberg	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	10	10	9	6	8	RV	.
NCWC	RV	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.
Randolph-Macon	RV	9	7	6	6	5	5	9	9	8	RV	.	RV	.
Trinity	9T	RV	10T	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Ursinus	RV	10	9	8T	8	8	8	7	7	10	RV	RV	RV	.
Wash U	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	RV	.

Ralph Turner · December 09, 2010, 11:40:51 PM

Time for discussion...

The ASC has the number of the Presidents AC. A friend of mine opined that Thomas More might finish fifth in the ASC.

When DPU lost to Trine, I thought, Trine? But when Trine was tied with UWW at 31-31 in the fourth quarter, that DPU loss did not look as bad.

For several years, I have followed Massey, Bornpowerindex and Lazindex. Yes, they are indices, but they give us a mathematical approximation of strength. Here are the ratings for this week.

Massey

5) Wesley 0.842
10) UMHB 0.604
13) HSU 0.460
26) Louisiana College 0.094
29) Thomas More 0.081
31) Salisbury 0.043
35) Johns Hopkins -0.023
40) McMurry -0.072
43) Ursinus -0.094
50) DePauw -0.161

Lazindex

5) Wesley 1.106
6) UMHB 1.084
9) Hardin-Simmons .975
22) Thomas More .837
30) Louisiana College .780
32) Salisbury .766
34) Johns Hopkins .754
37) DePauw .747
40) Ursinus .731
41) McMurry .726

Bornpowerindex

3) UMHB (64.2)
4) Wesley (64.0)
11) Hardin-Simmons (50.0)
18) Johns Hopkins (43.3)
19) Salisbury (43.2)
36) Louisiana College (37.6)
39) Thomas More (35.9)
41) Ursinus (34.4)
44) Randolph-Macon (34.2)
45) McMurry (34.1)