FB: Region 3 fan poll

[@d3jason]

Time for discussion...

A friend of mine opined that Thomas More might finish fifth in the ASC.

I don't know if I entirely buy that. From what I heard, it sounded like Thomas More was unprepared for the pace at which the UMHB offense runs plays. And as most of the teams in the ASC have found out over the years, things can snowball pretty quickly in Belton.

You may say, well that's inexcusable thing to miss for a coaching staff, but in an intersectional game its something you could miss when breaking down film against a team you've never seem before.

I think that they could compete in the McMurry, Hardin-Simmons, LA College. Miss College tier as could probably Depauw.

[crufootball]

Thomas More might not have been prepared for the pace of our offense but UMHB could have gone slower and the only thing that might have been different is pace we scored.

UMHB was just bigger and faster than TM, and while every team in the ASC doesn't have the size and speed that UMHB does they would have more than TM in my opinon.

[@d3jason]

Thomas More might not have been prepared for the pace of our offense but UMHB could have gone slower and the only thing that might have been different is pace we scored.

UMHB was just bigger and faster than TM, and while every team in the ASC doesn't have the size and speed that UMHB does they would have more than TM in my opinon.

Agreed about the Cru, but they are really only team in the conference plays physical, smashmouth football. Big and fast will usually beat fast.

The rest of the conference is littered with spread offenses and defenses that struggled to stop them for the most part.

So my question is, since I was not there and haven't seen TMC play since 1994. Do the Saints have the speed to compete with others in the ASC?

[crufootball]

It didn't appear to me they had the speed to keep up but that could have been because a few of them were on the ground due to the size advantage.

[@d3jason]

It didn't appear to me they had the speed to keep up but that could have been because a few of them were on the ground due to the size advantage.

+1

[Toby Taff]

Thomas More might not have been prepared for the pace of our offense but UMHB could have gone slower and the only thing that might have been different is pace we scored.

UMHB was just bigger and faster than TM, and while every team in the ASC doesn't have the size and speed that UMHB does they would have more than TM in my opinon.

Agreed about the Cru, but they are really only team in the conference plays physical, smashmouth football. Big and fast will usually beat fast.

The rest of the conference is littered with spread offenses and defenses that struggled to stop them for the most part.

So my question is, since I was not there and haven't seen TMC play since 1994. Do the Saints have the speed to compete with others in the ASC?

I would say HSU and LC would be comparable in speed but would hold a size advantage.  McM, while getting bigger this year, is probably comparable in size but with everyone healthy is faster than TMC.  Based strictly on what I saw in the TMC-UMHB game HSU, LC, and McM would have put up big scores and probably won by at least a TD, though I'd guess more like 14-20

[DPU3619]

When DPU lost to Trine, I thought, Trine?  But when Trine was tied with UWW at 31-31 in the fourth quarter, that DPU loss did not look as bad.

I'm shocked some people had DePauw that high in their final poll.  They gave up almost 100 points the last two weeks!  They way they finished this year, they wouldn't have beat almost anybody in any other conference.

[Ralph Turner]

Bringing to the current page...

Final Poll (after Week #14)

Rank	Team	(#1's)	Points	Votes	Post-season outcomes
1)	Wesley (ACFC)	(5)	50	(1,1,1,1,1)	Beat #8 seed Muhlenberg 53-14; beat #5 seed Montclair State 44-7; beat #2 seed UMHB 19-9
2)	UMHB (ASC)		45	(2,2,2,2,2)	Beat #7 seed CNU 59-7; beat #3 seed Thomas More 69-7; lost to #1 seed Wesley 19-9
3)	Hardin-Simmons   (ASC)		32	(3,4,4,5,7)	*Season complete at 8-2/8-2/6-2
4)	TMC   (Pres AC)		31	(3,3,3,7,8)	Beat #6 seed W&L 42-14; lost to #2 seed UMHB 69-7
5)	Salisbury  (ACFC)		26	(4,5,5,6,-)	Lost at "East" #4 Delaware Valley 23-12. 7-3/6-2/2-1
6T)	Hampden-Sydney (ODAC)		19	(4,7,8,9,9)	Lost to #5 Montclair State, 16-14. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/5-1
6T)	Louisiana College (ASC)		19	(3,4,7,-,-)	*Season Complete 7-3/6-3/6-2
8)	DPU   (SCAC)		17	(5,6,6,10,-)	Lost to #5 Trine 45-35. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/6-0
9)	Wash & Jeff (PresAC)		13	(6,6,9,10,-)	Beat F&M in ECAC Southwest Bowl. 9-2/8-2/6-1
10)	Washington & Lee (ODAC)		9	(5,8,-,-,-)	Lost at #3 Thomas More 42-14. *Season complete 8-3/8-2/6-0
*	*	*	*	*	*
RV)	Muhlenburg (CC)		6	(8,9,10,-,-)	Lost at #1 Wesley 53-14. *Season complete 7-4/7-3/7-2
RV)	Johns Hopkins (CC)		4	(7,-,-,-,-)	Beat Lebanon Valley 44-14 in ECAC South Atlantic Bowl
RV)	Ursinus (CC)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 8-2/8-2/7-2
RV)	North Carolina Wesleyan (USA South)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/6-1
RV)	Randolph-Macon (ODAC)		1	(10,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/3-3
RV)	Wash U (UAA)		1	10,-,-,-,-	Season complete 7-3/4-2/2-1

*  Final record is stated as overall record/ in-region/ conference.
Corrections appreciated.  

Thanks to hasanova, PA_Wesleyan, roocru and Wes Anderson for their hard work and prompt responses.

[Ralph Turner]

Bringing to the current page...

Final Poll (after Week #14)

Rank	Team	(#1's)	Points	Votes	Post-season outcomes
1)	Wesley (ACFC)	(5)	50	(1,1,1,1,1)	Beat #8 seed Muhlenberg 53-14; beat #5 seed Montclair State 44-7; beat #2 seed UMHB 19-9
2)	UMHB (ASC)		45	(2,2,2,2,2)	Beat #7 seed CNU 59-7; beat #3 seed Thomas More 69-7; lost to #1 seed Wesley 19-9
3)	Hardin-Simmons   (ASC)		32	(3,4,4,5,7)	*Season complete at 8-2/8-2/6-2
4)	TMC   (Pres AC)		31	(3,3,3,7,8)	Beat #6 seed W&L 42-14; lost to #2 seed UMHB 69-7
5)	Salisbury  (ACFC)		26	(4,5,5,6,-)	Lost at "East" #4 Delaware Valley 23-12. 7-3/6-2/2-1
6T)	Hampden-Sydney (ODAC)		19	(4,7,8,9,9)	Lost to #5 Montclair State, 16-14. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/5-1
6T)	Louisiana College (ASC)		19	(3,4,7,-,-)	*Season Complete 7-3/6-3/6-2
8)	DPU   (SCAC)		17	(5,6,6,10,-)	Lost to #5 Trine 45-35. *Season complete 9-2/9-1/6-0
9)	Wash & Jeff (PresAC)		13	(6,6,9,10,-)	Beat F&M in ECAC Southwest Bowl. 9-2/8-2/6-1
10)	Washington & Lee (ODAC)		9	(5,8,-,-,-)	Lost at #3 Thomas More 42-14. *Season complete 8-3/8-2/6-0
*	*	*	*	*	*
RV)	Muhlenburg (CC)		6	(8,9,10,-,-)	Lost at #1 Wesley 53-14. *Season complete 7-4/7-3/7-2
RV)	Johns Hopkins (CC)		4	(7,-,-,-,-)	Beat Lebanon Valley 44-14 in ECAC South Atlantic Bowl
RV)	Ursinus (CC)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 8-2/8-2/7-2
RV)	North Carolina Wesleyan (USA South)		2	(9,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/6-1
RV)	Randolph-Macon (ODAC)		1	(10,-,-,-,-)	Season complete 7-3/7-3/3-3
RV)	Wash U (UAA)		1	10,-,-,-,-	Season complete 7-3/4-2/2-1

*  Final record is stated as overall record/ in-region/ conference.
Corrections appreciated.  

Thanks to hasanova, PA_Wesleyan, roocru and Wes Anderson for their hard work and prompt responses.

Time for discussion...

The ASC has the number of the Presidents AC.  A friend of mine opined that Thomas More might finish fifth in the ASC.

When DPU lost to Trine, I thought, Trine?  But when Trine was tied with UWW at 31-31 in the fourth quarter, that DPU loss did not look as bad.

For several years, I have followed Massey, Bornpowerindex and Lazindex.  Yes, they are indices, but they give us a mathematical approximation of strength.  Here are the ratings for this week.

Massey

5)  Wesley                0.842
10)  UMHB                 0.604
13)  HSU                    0.460
26)  Louisiana College   0.094
29)  Thomas More        0.081

31)  Salisbury              0.043
35)  Johns Hopkins       -0.023
40)  McMurry              -0.072
43)  Ursinus                -0.094
50)  DePauw               -0.161

Lazindex

5)  Wesley                  1.106
6)  UMHB                    1.084
9)  Hardin-Simmons        .975
22)  Thomas More          .837
30)  Louisiana College     .780

32)  Salisbury                .766
34)  Johns Hopkins          .754
37)  DePauw                  .747
40)  Ursinus                   .731
41)  McMurry                 .726


Bornpowerindex

3)   UMHB   (64.2)
4)   Wesley   (64.0)
11)  Hardin-Simmons    (50.0)
18)  Johns Hopkins        (43.3)
19)  Salisbury             (43.2)

36)  Louisiana College  (37.6)
39)  Thomas More        (35.9)
41)  Ursinus                 (34.4)
44)  Randolph-Macon    (34.2)
45)  McMurry                (34.1)

When one compares the indices and the rankings derived from them, we can see how closely the "numbers" suggest that these teams actually are below the top 3.

[HSC85]

Ralph,

No mention of Hampden Sydney College in your December 9 poll even though they defeated other teams that you had listed.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,

No mention of Hampden Sydney College in your December 9 poll even though they defeated other teams that you had listed.

In the final South Region Fan Poll, HSC finished tied for 6th with Louisiana College.  Is that what you are asking?  Thanks.  

HSC is not listed in the rankings of the indices because their indices were not in the Top 10 of the three that I cited.  (I see that Lazindex has a new BCS format listing that does not use margin of victory.)

Their relative Strengths of schedule using the computer formulae that they use in those indices pull them out of the top 10.

Lazindex

http://www.lazindex.com/CFD3.htm

Bornpowerindex

http://bornpowerindex.com/

Massey Ratings (non-BCS format)

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf#conf

(I don't know how Massey can include the NESCAC in the other D-III ratings.  The NESCAC is disconnected from the rest of D-III.)

[PA_wesleyfan]

 Glad the margin of victory doesn't come in to play or we would have seen a few 100 pt games!!

[HSC85]

Ralph,

Thanks for the links.  I am really surprised that head to head matchups don't seem to matter in these computer models.  Louisianna beats Hardin Simmons and are still ranked well below them.  Hampden Sydney beats Salisbury and Randolph Macon and are still below both of them in some models.  I realize that margin of victory is not considered, but in some cases even head to head victories do not seem to be considered.  Just my opinion.  That is one of the problems with the BCS.  People have to defend computer models when common sense would go against the model results.  One reason why D3 is fortunate to be able to crown its football champion with a tournament. 

I wanted to thank you and the others for doing the South Region Fan polls.  It was very interesting to see how people in different parts of the South Region felt about the teams in the region as a whole. 

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,

Thanks for the links.  I am really surprised that head to head matchups don't seem to matter in these computer models. Louisiana beats Hardin Simmons and are still ranked well below them.   Hampden Sydney beats Salisbury and Randolph Macon and are still below both of them in some models.  I realize that margin of victory is not considered, but in some cases even head to head victories do not seem to be considered.  Just my opinion.  That is one of the problems with the BCS.  People have to defend computer models when common sense would go against the model results.  One reason why D3 is fortunate to be able to crown its football champion with a tournament. 

I wanted to thank you and the others for doing the South Region Fan polls.  It was very interesting to see how people in different parts of the South Region felt about the teams in the region as a whole.

These indexes are just a mathemetical projection of the teams relative stength.  Lousiana College beat HSU, at home, by 2 points.  The mathematical model would probably hold that HSU is likely to beat Louisiana College, say 55 times out of 100 on a neutral field.

Other parts of the country don't realize that Abilene TX to Pineville LA is nearly 500 miles.   Only the SCAC has a comparable travel schedule, and their schedule just got lighter with the move of DePauw to the NCAC.

[Pat Coleman]

Ralph,

Thanks for the links.  I am really surprised that head to head matchups don't seem to matter in these computer models.  Louisianna beats Hardin Simmons and are still ranked well below them. 

Where was Belhaven ranked?