FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

matt, i agree with you.  i like the gut feeling stuff, especially if it is backed by actually seeing the teams.  i will be interested in seeing what wesley does with huntington.  that will tell me a lot about the odac since i saw bridgewater and they only lost to hs by 14.  if wesley beats huntington easily which i think they will, then the odac rep will be in tough shape in playoffs.

I think the ODAC rep is going to be in tough shape either way because they will fall toward the bottom of the bracket. That being said, I'm not sure we aren't giving too much credit to the SCAC. Sure Centre beat W&L, by 1 touchdown, at home, in a game that could have gone either way. And B-SC beat Huntingdon who beat H-SC, but again, H-SC went on the road and just about everyone agrees they played an extremely poor first half. While I'm big in support of Huntingdon because they have knocked off two (at the time) ranked teams, both games were at home with opponents coming from a long trip. The only other tough D3 opponent so far, B-SC on the road, they lost.

I think this weekend will provide a whole lot of clarity. We'll find out if either B-SC or Centre is the real deal compared to the ODAC champion, although I think close wins by either isn't reflective of much versus the ODAC. A blowout by either might give an indication of where H-SC and W&L stand, but I don't really like third party comparisons, especially with a H2H coming up. We also get a nice peak at Huntingdon and Trinity. While I see a very strong ASC, I'm not quite ready to give the SCAC a big nod over the ODAC in that third tier.

[ExTartanPlayer]

While I see a very strong ASC, I'm not quite ready to give the SCAC a big nod over the ODAC in that third tier.

I agree.  I don't think the SCAC has done much to distinguish itself in the last few years (the salad days of Trinity as a national power are LONG gone).  Some might argue that SCAC champ often gets stuck playing the ASC champ in the first round because of travel considerations, but that's an old-hat argument which isn't really borne out by recent history.

In 2010 the SCAC champ (DePauw) lost at home in the first round to Trine.
In 2009 the SCAC champ (DePauw again) lost in the first round to Thomas More.
In 2008 the SCAC champ (Millsaps) beat LaGrange, then lost to Wash & Jefferson.
In 2007 the SCAC champ (Trinity) was wiped out by UMHB.
In 2006 the SCAC champ (Millsaps) lost to Carnegie Mellon.

That's a 1-5 playoff record in the last five years, with the losses spread against five different teams (only one of which is a true national power, UMHB).  All but UMHB were summarily dismissed in the next round.  Unfortunately, that suggests to me that the SCAC is no better than an average D-3 conference at this point.

The ODAC has experienced similar playoff struggles; however, I just don't see anything that proves that the SCAC is all that much better. 

In fairness, this looks like the strongest SCAC in a couple years - Trinity, BSC, and Centre have all notched a few respectable nonconference wins.  Heck, even Sewanee doesn't look like quite the doormat that they've been recently.

*Edited to add: I just re-read Matt Barnhart's original post and now I see what he was saying, which is a little more palatable - that he thinks the best ODAC team would finish 4th in the SCAC (presumably behind Trinity, BSC, and Centre).  I suppose that's possible, but I think you might be putting a little too much weight on a single result.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

While I see a very strong ASC, I'm not quite ready to give the SCAC a big nod over the ODAC in that third tier.

I agree.  I don't think the SCAC has done much to distinguish itself in the last few years (the salad days of Trinity as a national power are LONG gone).  Some might argue that SCAC champ often gets stuck playing the ASC champ in the first round because of travel considerations, but that's an old-hat argument which isn't really borne out by recent history.

In 2010 the SCAC champ (DePauw) lost at home in the first round to Trine.
In 2009 the SCAC champ (DePauw again) lost in the first round to Thomas More.
In 2008 the SCAC champ (Millsaps) beat LaGrange, then lost to Wash & Jefferson.
In 2007 the SCAC champ (Trinity) was wiped out by UMHB.
In 2006 the SCAC champ (Millsaps) lost to Carnegie Mellon.

That's a 1-5 playoff record in the last five years, with the losses spread against five different teams (only one of which is a true national power, UMHB).  All but UMHB were summarily dismissed in the next round.  Unfortunately, that suggests to me that the SCAC is no better than an average D-3 conference at this point.

The ODAC has experienced similar playoff struggles; however, I just don't see anything that proves that the SCAC is all that much better. 

In fairness, this looks like the strongest SCAC in a couple years - Trinity, BSC, and Centre have all notched a few respectable nonconference wins.  Heck, even Sewanee doesn't look like quite the doormat that they've been recently.

*Edited to add: I just re-read Matt Barnhart's original post and now I see what he was saying, which is a little more palatable - that he thinks the best ODAC team would finish 4th in the SCAC (presumably behind Trinity, BSC, and Centre).  I suppose that's possible, but I think you might be putting a little too much weight on a single result.

Excellent points.

However, you very subtly mentioned just the SCAC results - which aren't terrible when compared to the ODAC's:

2010: Hampden-Sydney lost to Montclair St. 16-14 (first round)
2010: Washington & Lee lost to Thomas More 42-14 (first round)
2009: Hampden-Sydney lost to Johns Hopkins 23-7 (first round)
2008: Randolph-Macon lost to Mt. Union 56-0 (first round)
2007: Hampden-Sydney lost to Wesley 45-27 (first round)
2006: Washington & Lee lost to Wilkes 42-0 (first round)

Sadly, the USAC has more playoff wins (1) than the ODAC since 2006.

So until the ODAC ends this five year playoff drought and averaging only 10 points per game, then I think it's very fair to place their best team has fourth in the SCAC.

I'm not just basing my opinion on the Huntingdon/HSC and Centre/W&L games, although I think they should be considered when comparing the ODAC and SCAC.

I do think the ODAC and SCAC have something in common - from 2000 to 2005, Bridgewater won 10 playoff games. Trinity had the same success over a period of time, and have since dropped off. I know some say parity is good, but neither have produced a great team in five years.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #6

1)  UMHB                   (6)        60  1,1,1,1,1,1
2)  Thomas More                    52   2,2,2,2,3,3
3)  Wesley                             49   2,2,3,3,3,5
4)  Johns Hopkins                   37   3,4,4,5,6,7
5)  Salisbury                           36   4,4,5,5,6,6

6)  B-SC                                26   5,6,6,7,8,8
7)  Louisiana College                19  4,7,9,10,10,x
8)  McMurry                             15   5,5,8,x,x,x
9T)  Centre                              12  6,8,9,9,x,x
9T)  Trinity                               12  7,7,9,9,x,x

RV) Huntingdon                       11   7,8,9,10,10,x
RV  W&L                                   4   8,10,x,x,x,x
RV) H-SC                                  1   10,x,x,x,x,x

Corrections appreciated...

[jknezek]

Excellent points.

However, you very subtly mentioned just the SCAC results - which aren't terrible when compared to the ODAC's:

2010: Hampden-Sydney lost to Montclair St. 16-14 (first round)
2010: Washington & Lee lost to Thomas More 42-14 (first round)
2009: Hampden-Sydney lost to Johns Hopkins 23-7 (first round)
2008: Randolph-Macon lost to Mt. Union 56-0 (first round)
2007: Hampden-Sydney lost to Wesley 45-27 (first round)
2006: Washington & Lee lost to Wilkes 42-0 (first round)

Sadly, the USAC has more playoff wins (1) than the ODAC since 2006.

So until the ODAC ends this five year playoff drought and averaging only 10 points per game, then I think it's very fair to place their best team has fourth in the SCAC.

I'm not just basing my opinion on the Huntingdon/HSC and Centre/W&L games, although I think they should be considered when comparing the ODAC and SCAC.

I do think the ODAC and SCAC have something in common - from 2000 to 2005, Bridgewater won 10 playoff games. Trinity had the same success over a period of time, and have since dropped off. I know some say parity is good, but neither have produced a great team in five years.

So the SCAC has 1 win a couple years ago, the ODAC has none. There just isn't much separating the performance of the champions. If you put B-SC, Centre, and Trinity together with H-SC, W&L, E&H, R-MC, and Bridgwater I just don't see it lining up straight down the conferences. Centre loses to W&L half the time if they visit Lex this year and I think the Generals win a bunch of times against them on the road. That game was pure toss-up. If you believe H-SC is better than W&L, which I do, then you figure H-SC beats Centre consistently.

That leaves B-SC and Trinity. With ONLY the H-SC vs Huntingdon and Huntingdon vs B-SC games to draw a comparison. Leaving off the home and away factor, there just isn't much to go on. I'm just looking at the same data and drawing a different conclusion.

In a conference including the 8 teams above, I think H-SC, B-SC and Trinity probably duke it out for the top spots with W&L, R-MC / E&H and Centre pulling up the middle spots. If you added Millsaps, DePau and Rhodes, I think they compete with Bridgewater and E&H / R-MC in the next tier followed by Sewanee and Catholic and then Austin and Guilford. I actually think that would be pretty balanced. Of course, that's just based on this year's teams. And yes, I'm not sure what to make of E&H and R-MC. For some reason I feel like R-MC SHOULD be the better team, but the H2H has me just setting them up flat.

I'm not saying the ODAC is better, I think it might be ever so slightly weaker this year top to bottom, but I don't think there is much to distinguish them. Both, I believe, are very clearly middle of the road D3 conferences. In fact, outside the ASC and our independents (plus Salisbury in limbo), I think the entire South region is made up of, at best, middle of the road conferences. The PAC (T Moore), Centennial (JHU), and MAC (Del Val) all feel like 1 team conferences and the USAS is definitely on hard times.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #7 action -- All scores are in.

Week #6 Poll

1)  UMHB                   (6)        60  1,1,1,1,1,1    UMHB 52  Southern Oregon 12
2)  Thomas More                    52   2,2,2,2,3,3    TMC  20   St Vincent 17
3)  Wesley                             49   2,2,3,3,3,5    Wesley 46   Virginia University at Lynchburg 0
4)  Johns Hopkins                   37   3,4,4,5,6,7    JHU  47     Dickinson 6
5)  Salisbury                           36   4,4,5,5,6,6    Salisbury 69  Alfred 0

6)  B-SC                                26   5,6,6,7,8,8      Centre 45  BSC  20
7)  Louisiana College                19  4,7,9,10,10,x    LaCollege 42  HPU  14
8)  McMurry                             15   5,5,8,x,x,x      McMurry 60, TLU 16
9T)  Centre                              12  6,8,9,9,x,x       Centre 45, BSC 20
9T)  Trinity                               12  7,7,9,9,x,x       Trinity 24, Huntingdon 7

RV) Huntingdon                       11   7,8,9,10,10,x     Trinity 24, Huntingdon 7
RV  W&L                                   4   8,10,x,x,x,x        W&L  34  Randolph Macon 30
RV) H-SC                                  1   10,x,x,x,x,x       H-SC 38, E&H  36

Corrections appreciated...

[jknezek]

Well that went pretty much according to plan. B-SC moves down or out with Centre and Trinity moving up. I think B-SC, H-SC, W&L, and Huntingdon get stuck fighting for 10th spot depending on preference. There may not be much separating them. Objectively speaking, W&L did better against Centre than B-SC, especially given home/away, but B-SC did better than H-SC against Huntingdon, although you might factor home/away. H-SC is probably expected to beat W&L, especially given home/away, but we still have 3 weeks until that match up and a lot can happen. Good thing all this is at the bottom of the table. That being said, I feel much better about W&L's road loss to Centre right now!

The top of the table is looking pretty clear, though I was surprised by the size of Trinity and Centre's wins. Really good news for the SCAC crowd as that conference looks to have 2 good teams this year.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #7

1)  UMHB                          (6)   60    1,1,1,1,1,1
2)  Wesley                               50    2,2,2,3,3,4
3)  TMC                                   41    2,2,2,6,6,7
4)  Salisbury                            40    3,4,4,5,5,5
5)  JHU                                    39    3,3,4,5,5,7

6T)  LaCollege                           23  3,6,8,8,9,9
6T)  McMurry                             23  4,4,7,8,9,x
8T)  Centre                               21  6,6,7,7,8,x
8T)  Trinity                                21  5,6,7,8,9,10
10)  W&L                                   9   7,9,10,10,10,x

RV) Huntingdon                         2    9,x,x,x,x,x,x
RV) B-SC                                  1    10,x,x,x,x,x
RV) H-SC                                  1    10,x,x,x,x,x


Corrections are appreciated.

[jknezek]

I don't think there are any surprises here. Maybe the bottom of the table with W&L showing consistently over H-SC? Certainly justifiable given the H-SC, Huntingdon, B-SC, Centre results. Most interesting votes I see is that someone probably has UMHB 1, LaCollege 3, McMurry 4, stacking the ASC top 3 over any other conference's top 1. I've said before I believe the ASC is strong, so I can't fault it, though I'm not sure I'd discount Salisbury. Others seem willing to give conference 1's the nod, also a fair strategy. TMC seems to be losing some consensus on the basis of their close win. Centre didn't get much of a boost, but given who is above them and the results I don't find that surprising, although the voter leaving them off the ballot is interesting.

Quite honestly, looking around at some of the other regional polls, I think our voters are doing a much better job of being objective. Maybe because the south is a bit cut and dry this year? Regardless, thanks for doing it and I hope this doesn't come off as being criticism, I'm just doing some critical thinking.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Seems like the top 5 teams are pretty well separated from the pack (even if folks are divided on Thomas More).  The logjam from 6-9 will sort itself out in a few weeks when LaCollege meets McMurry and Centre meets Trinity.  Until then, it's going to be hard to figure out very much.

Wesley is going to present a fascinating problem come playoff time should they stumble against Salisbury or Huntingdon, especially since they've only got six games against Division III opponents (and consequently won't have much of a "regional record" to go on).  That loss to Kean will really haunt them if they drop another game, especially since there's a good chance that either Huntingdon or CWRU will finish at 8-2 or 9-1.

[Toby Taff]

I don't think there are any surprises here. Maybe the bottom of the table with W&L showing consistently over H-SC? Certainly justifiable given the H-SC, Huntingdon, B-SC, Centre results. Most interesting votes I see is that someone probably has UMHB 1, LaCollege 3, McMurry 4, stacking the ASC top 3 over any other conference's top 1. I've said before I believe the ASC is strong, so I can't fault it, though I'm not sure I'd discount Salisbury. Others seem willing to give conference 1's the nod, also a fair strategy. TMC seems to be losing some consensus on the basis of their close win. Centre didn't get much of a boost, but given who is above them and the results I don't find that surprising, although the voter leaving them off the ballot is interesting.

Quite honestly, looking around at some of the other regional polls, I think our voters are doing a much better job of being objective. Maybe because the south is a bit cut and dry this year? Regardless, thanks for doing it and I hope this doesn't come off as being criticism, I'm just doing some critical thinking.

I have 3 ASC teams in but McM is @4 and LC is @9 based on what I've seen of both teams in person. I have Salisbury just below McM @5 and then TMC @6.

My reason for having TMC that far down is that the PAC history vs the ASC is not good. Last year TMC lost to the Cru 69-7 and in 08 w&j lost 63-7, the only close game was in 06 when UMHB won 30-27.

My reason for having McM @ 4 is that McM is legitimately good this year. Coach Mumme has put together a good team and unlike the team a few years ago that was being hailed as having arrived, but folded when they met the physicality of  HSU and UMHB, the Warhawks are a physical team. Mcm could have beaten UMHB in that game. They made the adjustments during the lightening display that put them in position to win. If Mumme kicks the xp and goes to overtime instead of going for 2 UMHB probably has a loss. Do I think Mcmis better than UMHB given that? No. Had there not been a lightening delay that broke up the momentum, UMHB's lead probably would have been bigger because they were dominating McM in the first half, but that doesn't negate the fact that McM used the break to its advantage and capitalized after the break.

[ExTartanPlayer]

@Toby Taff:

I think your reasoning for ranking TMC below a few ASC teams is sound; as you point out, the PAC has not done much to distinguish itself in the playoffs recently.  My comment was more of an "observation" (that people either think TMC is "really" good at #2, or that they're "sort-of-good" at #6 or #7).  FWIW, I'd probably have them at least beneath Salisbury and Wesley, probably McMurry as well.

As I've posted a few times in recent weeks, McMurry is a fascinating team.  Opening with two FCS teams (and having such diametrically opposite results) made them hard to figure, then they had a great showing against UMHB, and now they're steamrolling the bottom of the league.  Their season could really go in any direction from here; I could see them blasting HSU and LaCollege and earning that #4 ranking and a possible Pool C berth (another complex conversation in itself), or I could see them dropping one (or both) of those games and finishing 7-3/6-4 and perhaps 10th in these rankings.

Salisbury is getting plenty of respect in these polls, and yet I still think they might be underrated.  They were a better-than-it-looks 7-3 last year (all three losses to playoff teams, all of them close) and they are REALLY rolling on offense this year.  They just beat defending Empire 8 champ Alfred (who won a playoff game last year, mind you) by a whopping 69-0 on the road.  We'll see them tested again vs. Wesley in a few weeks, which IMHO might be one of the best regular season games of the year, with Salisbury out for respect and revenge (after nearly knowing off Wesley a few times recently) and knowing that Wesley HAS to win to stay in the playoff picture.

[Ralph Turner]

I like Salisbury. In fact, Salisibury might be the team that keeps Mount Union in the "north bracket" this season.

The Wesley Salisbury will be a key game this season.

[SaintsFAN]

I don't think there are any surprises here. Maybe the bottom of the table with W&L showing consistently over H-SC? Certainly justifiable given the H-SC, Huntingdon, B-SC, Centre results. Most interesting votes I see is that someone probably has UMHB 1, LaCollege 3, McMurry 4, stacking the ASC top 3 over any other conference's top 1. I've said before I believe the ASC is strong, so I can't fault it, though I'm not sure I'd discount Salisbury. Others seem willing to give conference 1's the nod, also a fair strategy. TMC seems to be losing some consensus on the basis of their close win. Centre didn't get much of a boost, but given who is above them and the results I don't find that surprising, although the voter leaving them off the ballot is interesting.

Quite honestly, looking around at some of the other regional polls, I think our voters are doing a much better job of being objective. Maybe because the south is a bit cut and dry this year? Regardless, thanks for doing it and I hope this doesn't come off as being criticism, I'm just doing some critical thinking.

Will just say St. Vincent is better than some realize.  I do vote in this fan poll, but truly the only thing that counts is the tournament.  TM will be the South #2 if they go 10-0 and will have to get by a Wesley/UMHB at some point, if they want to go "far".  They match up well with the styles played at McMurry and Salisbury (spread and option attacks --- which TM runs both --think WVU under RichRod or Clemson with Woody Dantzler).  What hurts TM in potential matchups against the NATIONS elite is the size on the defensive line and offensive line.  They are as fast and athletic as you'll see at this level. 

As I've said before, that UMHB score last year is very deceiving... they were missing some very key people and played a true freshman (an inexperienced one) at QB that afternoon.   I'm also not buying that the top half of the ASC is better than TM.  I played twice against a middle of the pack HPU and I can assure you we weren't very good at that point --- didn't get the impression we were out-classed.

Don't think that I'm going to be overly sensitive about my alma mater all the time, just felt the record needed straightened out this time.  I look forward to maybe covering the South Region for D3network come playoff time, but I'm definitely not a homer.

[SaintsFAN]

Seems like the top 5 teams are pretty well separated from the pack (even if folks are divided on Thomas More).  The logjam from 6-9 will sort itself out in a few weeks when LaCollege meets McMurry and Centre meets Trinity.  Until then, it's going to be hard to figure out very much.

Wesley is going to present a fascinating problem come playoff time should they stumble against Salisbury or Huntingdon, especially since they've only got six games against Division III opponents (and consequently won't have much of a "regional record" to go on).  That loss to Kean will really haunt them if they drop another game, especially since there's a good chance that either Huntingdon or CWRU will finish at 8-2 or 9-1.

Have to win out.  Period.  Their playoffs started much earlier than everyone else's.  Sucks --- because it sounds like D3 schools won't play them... so I feel for their kids if they don't get it... but I think they will... because they'll win out.