FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

I think that we may have three of the Top 5 in the ASC, if SRSU can hang within 21 points of UMHB.

I would have a hard time voting a 1-3 team into the top 5. You have 1 good win, although the "good" evaporated a bit last week. Three losses are still three losses, and you would only be 1-1 in D3. That would be a tough sell. SRSU is going to really have to show me something to be 1-3 and still be in the top 10. That something is going to have to be a lot closer than a 21 point loss.

[Ralph Turner]

For me, a lot of times, the real coach of the year is the guy who won 3-4 more games than the year before. Getting that change into the minds of players is the beauty of an outstanding coaching job.

Agreed - partially.

I'd almost liken it to the difference in voting for an "MVP" and a "Most Improved Player" in the NBA.  A coach that takes a 2-8 team and turns them into a 6-4 team has done a fantastic job, no doubt, and it can be argued that they did something more impressive than the coach of a perennial powerhouse churning out another 9-1 team in a program that's always done so.  On the other hand, I believe that coaches of truly outstanding teams SHOULD be rewarded, even if they only "met" expectations that were exceedingly high beforehand.

Not disagreeing - just presenting an alternative viewpoint.  Both coaches in the aforementioned example should be commended.  It's hard to say which is more deserving of a "Coach of the Year" award.

And going from 9-1 to 12-2, 3 more wins and 4 games deep/er into the playoffs is another way to acknowledge that 3-4 more wins.   

My bias is for the coaching efforts that are made below D-1 (full scholarship).  The D-3 student athletes and the partial scholarship NAIA/D-2's, where someone is only getting a quarter tuition (which may be less than some non-athletic merit scholarship at a D-3), are there to learn about the skills necessary in life.

[DGPugh]

"are there to learn about the skills necessary in life."

HoooRah, well said, amen keep the faith

[roocru]

I am not sold on Sul Ross yet either even though I placed them 8th in my picks.  A little history shows my concern.

Sul Ross has played Western New Mexico for four straight years,

In 2009 they lost to WNM by 15 (33-48) and finished 2-8 with only wins to HPU and TLU (before coaching change).  They lost to UMHB 16-48.

In 2010 they lost to WNM by 3 (32-35) and finished 1-8 with only win to HPU.  They lost to UMHB 12-76.

In 2011 they lost to WNM by 7 (28-35) and finished 2-8 with only wins to Bacone and HPU.  They lost to UMHB 13-77.

In 2012 they lost to WNM by 10 (44-54) and then beat Trinity 62-35.  This Trinity/Sul Ross game was close the whole first half.  Against Trinity, the Cru scored on all six of their drives in the first half and had they not started the second half with substitutes the score would have been much worse.  The first half drives were 67, 72, 15, 75, 30 and 59 yards.

I need to see some proof that that they are much better than their past record shows and that the win against Trinity was not just success against a so far awful Trinity defense.  If they play UMHB closer than past records show, I will be happy to move them higher.

2010 Result  UMHB 76  Sul Ross  12
2011 Result  UMHB  77  Sul Ross  13
2012 Result UMHB 76  Sul Ross 21 28

Looks like they are one two touchdown(s) better.

[Ralph Turner]

Week #4 South Region Fan Poll

1)    UMHB  (5)	50	1,1,1,1,1	Beat SRSU 76 -28
2)    Wesley	45	2,2,2,2,2	Bye
3)    B-SC	38	3,3,3,3,5	Beat Austin College 49-21
4)    LaCollege	33	3,4,4,5,6	Beat HPU 38-6
5)    JHU	31	4,4,4,6,6	Beat Juniata 40-20
.	.	.	.
6)    Huntingdon	21	5,6,7,7,9	Beat Ave Maria 42-21
7)    SRSU	20	5,5,6,8,x	Lost to UMHB 76-28
8)    Waynesburg	12	7,8,8,9,x	Beat Thiel 20-19
9)    HSC	10	8,8,9,9,x	Lost to Catholic 41-28
10T) Gettysburg	6	7,10,10,x,x	Beat McDaniel 35-3
10T) Millsaps	6	7,9,x,x,x	Beat Centre 33-16
.	.	.	.
RV)  W&J	3	8,x,x,x,x	Beat Bethany  28-26
RV)  CMU	1	10,x,x,x,x	Lost to Wabash 54-28
RV)  Muhlenberg	1	10,x,x,x,x	Lost to Susquehanna 17-0
RV)  W&L	1	10,x,x,x,x	Beat Guilford  42-21

Carnage in the bottom half of the poll.

[Ralph Turner]

This is starting to make some sense.

1)    UMHB (5)	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)    Wesley	45	2,2,2,2,2
3)    B-SC	40	3,3,3,3,3
4T)   JHU	32	4,4,4,5,6
4T)   La College	32	4,4,5,5,5
.	.	.	.
6)     Huntingdon	26	5,6,6,6,6
7)     Gettysburg	16	7,8,8,8,8
8)     Millsaps	15	7,7,8,9,9
9)     Waynesburg	12	7,7,9,10,10
10)   Wash & Lee	3	9,10,x,x,x
_	_	_	_
RV)   Wash & Jeff	2	10,10,x,x,x
RV)   Carnegie Mellon	2	9,x,x,x,x

[jknezek]

Yep. You can make some arguments 8-14 or so, but I think the top 7 are pretty much known for this week. I'm interested to see how B-SC does this weekend. A loss won't necessarily affect them, but if/how they lose, considering we know how La College did against the same opponent (home vs away taken into effect), will be telling for the top 5.

[Ralph Turner]

Quick poll results:

I will post the ballots tonight:

1) UMHB         50           1,1,1,1,1
2) Wesley       45            2,2,2,2,2
3) La Coll        37            3,3,4,4,4
4) B-SC          35           3,3,4,5,5
5) JHU            30           3,4,6,6,6

6) Huntingdon  28          5,5,5,6,6
7) Gettysburg   17          7,7,8,8,8
8) Waynesburg  16         7,7,7,8,10
9) Wash & Lee    9          8,9,9,10,10
10) Millsaps        5          9,9,10,x,x

RV)  CMU            2         9,x,x,x,x
RV)  Randy-Mac   1         10,x,x,x,x


Corrected !  All corrections are appreciated!  Thanks

[PA_wesleyfan]

 Unfortunately Wesley, Birm.So. La. College and Huntingdon are  not all going to get bids unless everyone else in the conferences beats each other. JHU and Millsaps may be the only teams that  can give them a game. UMHB right now is the leader until someone beats them. I like all the head to head as far as watching good games but it sure is going to give some undeserving teams playoff bids. I guess we will find out how good Waynesburg and Gettysburg as the conference games heat up. Maybe the playoff committee will give them a C bid or two?? Wishful thinking aye?

[jknezek]

It is interesting. We were really fortunate this year that a lot of the top teams in the region scheduled each other. It gives us a pretty clear pecking order, but it also will probably cost at least 1 team, probably 2, from the South's 5 best a shot at the playoffs. I expect UMHB to run the table, giving La Col a second loss. Those two losses, Wesley and UMHB, will probably keep them out of the playoffs, which is an absolute sin given they are losses to two of the top 5 (at worst) teams in the country.

I expect B-SC to run the table, provided they can get past Trinity (it's just tough to win in San Antonio!). I expect them to get a bid. 1 loss to a top 5 (at worst) team in the country should earn you a bid. That leaves Huntingdon at home. Losses to Wesley and B-SC put it in a slightly weaker position than La Col, so I don't think Huntingdon even makes the discussion. Millsaps probably won't make the discussion either. They lost to Huntingdon, putting them third in line plus I think they'll lose to B-SC and possibly Trinity (again, San Antonio is a tough place to play).

So I expect Wesley to get a "B" and I think B-SC, if they win out, will get a "C". Leaving La Col and Huntingdon wondering why CNU, the ODAC champion, and probably even the PAC champion are lucky enough to not have UMHB in conference and a schedule that doesn't include Wesley or B-SC....

I like the AQ system, but it ensures that the best 32 teams in the country do not make the playoffs. Such is life.

[Ron Boerger]

B-SC gets Trinity at home this week, jknezek.   For what it's worth, Millsaps does play in SA.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I like the AQ system, but it ensures that the best 32 teams in the country do not make the playoffs. Such is life.

IMO - and I believe the two of us have discussed this somewhere before, I'm just re-posting here so the thought is out there - this is an acceptable tradeoff.  Occasionally a very, very good team will be left out of the playoffs, and of course it would be nice to put in an 8-2 team if those two losses are to top-10 caliber teams.  They would probably beat at least the bottom 10-15 teams in the field.

With that said: my long-held belief is that the playoffs are a national championship tournament, and that therefore the primary goal should be to determine the best team in the nation.  A team with two losses, even against top-5 competition, cannot claim that they didn't receive a fair chance to play their way into the tournament; if they had beaten those two teams, they would be granted a place in the tournament.

Of course there are counterarguments for some of the points made above (why let in some teams that we "know" aren't very good, what about a team with two close losses that might get hot and win the playoffs, etc) but it's my belief.  As long as we get all undefeated teams into the tournament and all conference champions, I'm fine with that.

[jknezek]

We've had this discussion Ex and I agree. I do like the AQ system as I stated. It gives more teams the opportunity to play post season and takes a lot of the "voting" factor out. I don't really like "voting" or computer polls. Plus, if you start at the top of the polls, or have a history of being "good", you get the benefit of the doubt. A team coming from nowhere and going 9-1 or undefeated is going to have a hard time making inroads into a completely selected playoff system (Boise State, TCU anyone?). So the AQ helps teams develop, which makes me happy.

But this year, if La College runs the table except of UMHB and doesn't make the field, well, that's just a tough pill for them to swallow. They might be the 3rd best team in the South, and UMHB and Wesley might be the top 2 teams in the country (UMU hasn't played anyone yet and UWW does not look up to usual snuff. Not saying those teams aren't in the top 2, I'm just saying the South might have them both). La College might be the 5th-10th best team in the country, maybe, and they are probably going out because they played 2 of the top 5. Just a bummer. Hopefully it won't shake out this way, but I don't see 8-2 La Col going ahead of 9-1 B-SC.

[jknezek]

B-SC gets Trinity at home this week, jknezek.   For what it's worth, Millsaps does play in SA.

You think I'd remember that since I'm planning to go! What can I say, I have 3 kids under 3 including 10 month old twins. Some days I can't remember my own name...

[Ralph Turner]

B-SC gets Trinity at home this week, jknezek.   For what it's worth, Millsaps does play in SA.

You think I'd remember that since I'm planning to go! What can I say, I have 3 kids under 3 including 10 month old twins. Some days I can't remember my own name...

or theirs...

"BILLY!   BETTY!  SAM !  WHOEVER YOU ARE!  STOP PULLING THE DOG'S EARS AND GET BACK IN THE HOUSE!